Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer to Monday's article for an in-depth look at the new LPR codes.

Unfortunately we encountered an annoying roadblock while compiling the statistics for these articles. We were unable to locate pitcher game logs including detailed data like G-F ratio for 2000. I will certainly update this article if I discover that data in an easily accessible format, however we are currently lacking any c, C, z, or Z ratings for the moment. We regret any inconvenience this may cause you.

The following each require a 25 IP minimum in each season:

1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2002.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2001.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2000.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0.

Note: Pitchers must pitch in five games before scoring DOM or DIS points.

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2002 appearances
A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2002 appearances
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2001 appearances
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2001 appearances
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2000 appearances
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 75% of 2000 appearances

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2002 appearances
X - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2002 appearances
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2001 appearances
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2001 appearances
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2000 appearances
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 10% of 2000 appearances

Detroit Tigers

a
X - Franklyn German
x - Eric Eckenstahler
Juan Acevedo

b
y - Matt Anderson
y - Danny Patterson
Matt L. Miller

b
Oscar Henriquez

y
Adam Bernero

Recent Tigers who did not qualify for any LPR score include Jason Beverlin, Willie Blair, Dave Borkowski, Doug Brocail, Nate Cornejo, Jeff Farnsworth, Seth Greisinger, Chris Holt, Jason Jimenez, Mark J. Johnson, Kris Keller, Masao Kida, Jose Lima, Shane Loux, Mike Maroth, Jose Paniagua, Terry Pearson, Matt Perisho, Adam Pettyjohn, Brian Powell, Mark Redman, Fernando Rodney, Sean Runyan, Erik Sabel, Julio Santana, Steve Sparks, Kevin Tolar, Andy Van Hekken, and Jamie Walker.

While I certainly expect Franklyn German to begin closing for the Tigers before the end of next season, Matt Anderson should remain the closer until Detroit finds someone willing to take his contract. Both pitchers seem like fairly good bets, although you should not plan on more than half a season of saves from either. Acevedo should remain a decent Dollar Days pick as long as he does not wind up in a great hitters' park, and Patterson also might reemerge as a decent middle reliever sometime in 2004 once he recovers from his arm troubles.

Few of the non-qualifiers here hold any interest for me. I am not overly fond of Maroth or most of these journeymen, and I am quite worried that the shorter left field fence in Comerica will wreck Redman's numbers. Only Cornejo offers much immediate upside, and I would not want him at more than a buck or two.

The only area of decent depth here is solid left-handed middle relievers. I see little problem in using Eckenstahler, Jimenez, or Walker as roster filler whenever necessary, as they each demonstrate relatively decent skills. Even Walker's homer problems do not overly trouble me since he showed more consistency as the year progressed.

Kansas City Royals

a
bXy - Roberto Hernandez
bxy - Jason Grimsley
X - Mike MacDougal
Jeff Austin
Brian Shouse

b
y - Cory Bailey

x
Nate Field
Scott Mullen

Recent Royals who did not qualify for any LPR score include Jeremy Affeldt, Miguel Asencio, Doug Bochtler, Ryan Bukvich, Paul Byrd, Tim Byrdak, Tony Cogan, Jeff M. D'Amico, Chad Durbin, Chris Fussell, Chris George, Doug Henry, Runelvys Hernandez, Jeremy Hill, Andy Larkin, Brett Laxton, Darrell May, Dan Murray, Wes Obermueller, Jason Rakers, Dan Reichert, Bryan Rekar, Jose Rosado, Shawn Sedlacek, Paul Spoljaric, Blake Stein, Jeff Suppan, Mac Suzuki, Brad Voyles, and Kris Wilson.

Kansas City's entire list of logical potential closers qualified for an a rating, suggesting that they will find a capable short reliever even with Hernandez departing. Grimsley is the logical pick given both his experience and contract, Austin owns the best combination of current skill and potential, and MacDougal's dominance and excellent G-F ratio suggest he will succeed as long as he demonstrates decent control. We do not see much long-term upside for Mullen, but I doubt he will hurt you as a Dollar Days pick.

Of the thirty recent Royals who did not qualify for an LPR score, less than half remain with the organization. Kansas City could break camp with a rotation of Hernandez, Affeldt, Sedlacek, George, and one of Asencio, May, and Obermueller. However, we hope they keep a couple veterans, or they could send a half-dozen youngsters to the DL unless Tony Pena exercises extreme care with their workloads. None of these starters' immediate upside merits more than a couple bucks, and since Bukvich, Hill, and Voyles only seem likely to compete for middle relief spots, I see little logic supporting investing in any young Kansas City pitcher aside from potential closers Austin and MacDougal.

Minnesota Twins

1
ax - LaTroy Hawkins

2
y - Jack Cressend

a
X - Travis Miller
x - Eddie Guardado
x - J.C. Romero

x
Mike Jackson

Y
Tony Fiore

Recent Twins who did not qualify for any LPR score include Grant Balfour, Sean Bergman, Hector Carrasco, Mike Duvall, Kevin Frederick, Adam Johnson, Matt Kinney, Kyle Lohse, Joe Mays, Danny Mota, Brad Radke, Rick Reed, Juan Rincon, Jose Rodriguez, Jason Ryan, Johan Santana, Brad Thomas, Mike Trombley, and Bob Wells.

Even with the off-season departures of Cressend and Jackson, as well as the club's dumping of Miller last summer, the Twins' strength remains their bullpen thanks to Steady Eddie, Romero, Hawkins, and Fiore. I do not believe any team in the game fielded a more successful four-man core, and only Fiore seems likely to pitch noticeably worse this year. Fortunately Minnesota's blessed with a half-dozen solid relief prospects of whom Rincon and Balfour are the most prepared to succeed in the majors. At least one young Twins reliever appears likely to accumulate several dollars of value in 2003, and while Rincon and Balfour are the most logical options, Frederick, Michael Nakamura, and a couple other younger prospects instead could emerge.

On the downside of the Twins' bullpen dominance, their rotation holds nothing more than generally workmanlike starters, most of whom are definite injury risks. Radke and Milton possess the most upside but neither should develop into a true ace anytime soon. Mays and Reed essentially are no more than solid middle-of-the-rotation starters, and while Kyle Lohse should continue improving for a few more years, I do not see him reaching $15+ based on his current skills. Only Johan Santana possesses tremendous upside, and the Twins appear reluctant to trust him as a starter. While he could earn $20 within a couple years, I do not see him approaching that level in 2003 if he begins the year in the bullpen.

I will continue reviewing the new LPR scores tomorrow with pitchers from Anaheim and Oakland.

Today's Fantasy Rx: As with the White Sox and Indians, most of the young starters on Detroit and Kansas City are fairly high risks due to both questionable skills and significant competition. Some of the Tigers' long-term prospects such as Jeremy Bonderman look like much better investments than anyone currently in the majors for Detroit, and although a couple of Royals like Runelvys Hernandez look decent right now, most of them carry notable injury risk.