Today's Fantasy Rx

National League First Basemen without Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Colbrunn		171	57	.333	10	27	0	30	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		2		1
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	8		6		1		R

Since joining Arizona in 1999 Colbrunn's compiled a .317/.393/.542 in 732 AB, along with 34 HR, 126 RBI, and 110 Runs; prorated to 500 at-bats, Colbrunn's .317/23/86/0/75 line merits a bid in the $20 range. Although he generally fares better against left-handers, he posted an .835 OPS against righties in 2002 on his way to the first 1.000+ OPS of his career at 1.004. He's not an overly patient hitter, but he displays decent power potential as he consistently stays near his 1.14 career G-F. His .08 walk rate and .89 contact rate also illustrate the profile of a competent, albeit not a great hitter. I'd happily bid close to double-digits if Colbrunn finds a similar role in 2003, and you may earn a nice profit even if he doesn't earn a regular starting job.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Craig A. Wilson		368	97	.264	16	57	2	48	1/O
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		4		8
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	8		7		4		6

The acquisitions of Randall Simon and Matt Stairs leave Wilson on the short side of a right field platoon at best. His offensive output decreased in 2002 as his playing time doubled, however he still posted a solid .858 OPS against left-handers. At least we saw skill development this year, including solid improvement in both his #P/PA(3.61 '02; 3.94 02) and G-F(1.23 '01; .98 '02). With little change in either his walk or contact rates, Wilson remains a relatively cheap power source with decent upside, though we can't expect much BA help due to his questionable plate discipline.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Julio Franco		338	96	.284	6	30	5	51	1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	8		6		4		5
2002 Age: 41	5x5:	8		7		4		1

Julio seems destined to return as the right-handed platoon partner for Matt Franco in 2003 following the trade of Wes Helms. Franco posted a .968 OPS against left-handers, so as long as Bobby Cox doesn't repeat the folly of the playoffs when he sat Matt, Atlanta should continue to a field an amazingly inexpensive and productive platoon in the #2 hole. While his .78 contact rate is well below his .86 career mark and he possesses little power, he still looks quite capable of contributing a few bucks thanks to a solid batting average and marginal quantitative stats. I'd wait until Dollar Days before looking to roster him, but Franco again should earn a few dollars of profit on a minimal bid.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Franco		205	65	.317	6	30	1	25	1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	8		6
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	7		5

Franco excelled from his late May call-up through the end of August before posting a .204/.350/.347 in a powerless September. His .315 EQA ranked eighteenth among National Leaguers with at least 225 plate appearances, and while he only batted 7 times against lefties, his stats against right-handers rank with the best first basemen in the league at .317/.394/.517. Franco's always displayed excellent plate discipline and good power potential since the Cubs drafted him in 1987, but they left him in the minors through 1995 since Mark Grace blocked him at first. While amassing 843 at-bats since 1995, Franco's compiled a .270/.356/.397 career line, so his great OBP isn't much above his normal performance. Unfortunately there's not much power potential here given his 1.61 G-F, and his .13 walk rate and .85 contact rate also seems low for a .317 BA, so we can't expect significant fantasy help from him in 2003. His batting average accounted for over half his value last season, and even if the Braves keep him in a first base platoon, I wouldn't expect him to reach the upper single digits.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Mabry		214	59	.276	11	43	1	28	1/O
PHI/OAK		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	6		5		-2
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	6		5		-2

A moment of panic from Billy Beane launched Mabry into trade immortality when the A's acquired him in return for Jeremy Giambi. While his .275/.322/.523 performance with Oakland seemed solid, it pails next to Giambi's .244/.435/.538 marks with Philly. However Mabry still performed surprisingly well for the Athletics. Both his .80 contact rate and .276 BA were in line with his respective career marks of .80 and .271, and he's hinted at a power surge for years after his G-F dropped from 1.97 to 1.09 between 1997 and 1999. I still think Mabry's a very risky play, but his power upside now appears worth a Dollar Days gamble that his BA won't hurt.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Erubiel Durazo		222	58	.261	16	48	0	46	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	6		5		1		9
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	6		5		1		13

Durazo reached career highs in every quantitative category except steals due to his 222 at-bats, a little over two dozen more than he'd attained in any of the three previous seasons. His .73 contact rate indicates we won't see much BA growth, however his .22 walk rate, 4.05 #P/PA, and .97 G-F all support Billy Beane's belief that he's ready for a major breakout. Durazo won't have to worry about playing defense for the A's, and a cushy lineup slot either in front of Tejada or behind Tejada/Chavez/Dye gives him a great opportunity to amass significant numbers of runs and RBI. Our only concern involves his inability to remain healthy, however he should approach $20 even if he misses a month or two. I wouldn't exceed the high teens since his low BA limits his value, but Durazo's definitely someone to target if you're seeking to add a source of great power potential.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Young		468	115	.246	16	51	4	60	1
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		14		10
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	7		5		11		9

Pittsburgh's acquisition of Randall Simon likely cuts Young's at-bats by half, a move that leaves him struggling to earn more than a couple of bucks next year. His .60 G-F marked a new career-best for Young. He's now improved his power potential in six straight years, and he continues to demonstrate good patience at the plate. Young actually seems poised for a marginal rebound as practically all his skills improved, so his numbers against left-handers, which included a .283/.377/.519, along with 7 HR, 17 RBI, and 15 Runs in only 106 at-bats, look like a good guide for his 2003 performance. Those stats would have left him with about $2 of value, and I can't envision him finding significantly more playing time. Any bid over a couple bucks is unlikely to earn you a profit.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andres Galarraga		292	76	.260	9	40	2	30	1
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		4		2		R
2002 Age: 41	5x5:	5		4		2		1

Galarraga provided remarkably little production for Montreal in his 17th major league season, and a career-worst .72 contact rate depicts his major problem. He's still a patience hitter with moderate power, but he simply strikes out too often to warrant much playing time. Several non-tendered first basemen have essentially flooded the market, and since Galarraga even hit worst against left-handers than versus righties, he needs to consider beginning his coaching career in 2003.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sean Casey		425	111	.261	6	42	2	56	1
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	4		4		20		24
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	6		5		19		23

He missed time with four different injuries in 2002 before hitting the DL for good on September 10th. Even though Casey needed surgery to repair his torn shoulder muscle, he should be sufficiently healthy to participate in Spring Training, though he likely won't be 100% until a couple months into the season. However only a mild bump in his walk rate suggests we'll see any improvement in his numbers, so you shouldn't even bid into double digits on him. Don't plan on drafting Casey as I can't imagine him going for less than $10 in any standard league.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Grace		298	75	.252	7	48	2	43	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	4		3		9		12
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	4		3		9		12

He'll spend at least one more year on the field for Arizona before heading to the broadcast booth, however Grace has acknowledged that he'll function mostly as a pinch-hitter, defensive sub, and veteran tutor to Rookie of the Year candidate Lyle Overbay. The most surprising aspect of his marks in 2002 is that he essentially improved or roughly maintained all his skills, so the major reason for the fall in value was a .226/.340/.346 line against right-handers. Grace posted a .321/.382/.494 against southpaws, and the second half drop in his SLG from .407 to .346 likely largely was because he didn't go on the DL for the toe he broke right before the All-Star game. I see a lot of signs here that indicate a rebound, and Grace could push to double-digits if his BA rises up towards his .305 career average. A bid of a couple bucks won't hurt you and could yield a nice profit.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Kinkade		50	19	.380	2	11	1	7	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		2
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	2		2

Kinkade's excelled in the minors for eight years, and after posting a .341/.433/.575 in 287 at-bats at AAA Las Vegas, he thanked the Dodgers for a late summer promotion by pasting the ball for a .380/.483/.600. While he certainly shouldn't maintain that level of superstardom, he possesses good plate discipline and promising power potential, and I'd love to see him find 400+ at-bats some year. For now Kinkade finally looks likely to stay in the majors as the best 25th man in the game since he can play all four corners and even catch. I don't expect him to go for more than $3 in any league if he breaks camp with LA, and since he'll probably only need a couple months to earn his salary, you'll see a nice profit if he remains in the majors for the extended look he deserves.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Hansen		120	35	.292	2	17	1	15	1
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	2		2		0
2002 Age: 33	5x5:	2		2		0

Hansen and Lenny Harris generally are acknowledged as the two best pinch-hitters in the game, so despite a season in which Hansen hit .185/.279/.278 in 54 pinch at-bats, San Diego awarded him a two-year deal based on his productive history. Unfortunately nearly all his skills decreased in 2002, and I don't see any specific growth that indicates he'll rebound. While his poor season could be an aberration, I wouldn't risk rostering him until we see decent stats from him for a couple months next year.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
J.T. Snow		422	104	.246	6	53	0	47	1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	2		1		6		9
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	3		2		7		7

Both his general defense and great hands earned significant praise during the playoffs, however the removal of pre-teenage batboys from baseball accelerates Snow's rapid descent over the last two years into the worst offensive first baseman in the league. No NL first basemen with more than 10 hits in 2002 posted a worse OPS than Snow's .708 mark, and while I recognize that PacBell is a terrible park for hitters, his career-worst 1.30 G-F and .79 contact rate leave him with little value. Snow turns 35 in February, and while he's still young enough where we could see a rebound, I wouldn't offer more than a Dollar Days flyer on him given the number of more intriguing options around baseball.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Damon Minor		173	41	.237	10	24	0	21	1
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	1		1		0
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	1		1		0		7

Minor posted a .269/.355/.537 line in the first half before slipping to a horrendous .185/.299/.292 after the All-Star game as Dusty Baker cut Minor's playing time in half and recommitted to J.T. Snow. While Minor battled a couple of minor injuries, his skills were superior to Snow's marks in nearly every area. A .14 walk rate, .70 BB:K, and .91 G-F all indicate significant upside, and the Giants will be pleasantly surprised if they let him start no later than 2004 after Snow's deal expires. A couple bucks on Minor won't hurt you, and you might see a significant profit if Felipe Alou starts looking to add offense to the lower half of his lineup.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
B.J. Surhoff		75	22	.293	0	9	1	5	1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		1		6		6
2002 Age: 38	5x5:	0		0		6		3

Surhoff missed most of the season after tearing his right ACL at the end of April. He's reportedly looking for a team to join as a backup, and while I don't see much power upside here, he still possesses solid plate discipline and could provide a small BA boost. I wouldn't bother selecting him before Dollar Days, however as long as breaks camp in the majors, he won't hurt you for a buck.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ivan Cruz		14	5	.357	1	3	0	2	1
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		0
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of St. Louis Prospects for my comments on Cruz.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ross Gload		31	8	.258	1	4	0	4	1
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		-1				R
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		-1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Colorado Prospects for my comments on Gload.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lee Stevens		358	73	.204	15	57	1	50	1
MON/CLE		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1		7		10
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	0		1		8		11

While a .190/.318/.376 in 205 at-bats for Montreal was bad, Stevens' value finished disappearing after his trade to Cleveland, where he compiled a .222/.285/.379 in 153 at-bats. The shocking part about his awful BA is that his .75 contact rate was both a nice improvement on his .71 mark in 2001 and even slightly above his career average. His 1.17 G-F also was his best mark since 1996, however we won't see a rebound in 2003 unless his new manager sits him against lefties. Southpaws held Stevens to a .137/.192/.274, so while his .221/.330/.404 against right-handers, along with his skill trends, suggests he'll reclaim much of his lost value next year, he definitely needs a platoon partner. Of course, you still should only bid a buck or two even if Stevens finds regular playing time in a platoon since a sub-.250 BA will negate much of his quantitative output.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Kevin Barker		19	3	.158	0	0	1	0	1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-2

Barker spent most of the year at AAA Portland, where he posted a .251/.333/.400 with 14 HR, 48 RBI, 54 R, 1/2 SB%, and a 46:70 BB:K in 390 at-bats. These numbers obviously aren't close to the .278/.363/.518 he compiled in 1999 for Milwaukee's AAA affiliate in Louisville, and Barker's displayed none of that talent since the Brewers only gave him 217 at-bats to prove himself in the majors after he spent four seasons demolishing minor league pitching. I think we'll see a solid comeback from Barker in another couple of years, however there's no reason to own him until you see some nice numbers from him at AAA.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Lyle Overbay		10	1	.100	0	1	0	0	1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-2
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-3		-2				1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Arizona Prospects for my comments on Overbay.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Hee Seop Choi		50	9	.180	2	4	0	6	1
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-3		-2				R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-2				R

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Chicago (N) Prospects for my comments on Choi.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Dave Hollins		17	2	.118	0	0	0	1	1
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	-3		-2

Hollins missed almost the entire season due to a bad infection that developed after a spider bit him in Spring Training. While this isn't exactly a distinguished way to end his fantasy career, Hollins hasn't contributed helpful roto stats since 1998, leaving you no reason to roster him.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alan Zinter		44	6	.136	2	3	0	5	1
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-3		-2

Zinter finally reached the majors in his fourteenth season of professional ball, and while he homered for his first hit in his sixth at-bat in early July, he reached base only five more times the rest of the season. Although he merited a few years in the majors during his peak years in the mid-'90's, Zinter no longer demonstrates the plate discipline necessary to stay out of AAA. His power potential isn't worth the continuing BA damage.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Sweeney		65	11	.169	1	4	0	3	1
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-4		-2		-2
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-4		-2		-2

Sweeney's been traded five times in 12 seasons in packages that included Danny Jackson, Greg Vaughn, and Jeromy Burnitz for players like John Habyan, Fernando Valenzuela, Reggie Sanders, and Alex Ochoa twice. He's never displayed notable power, so few organizations cared that he regularly hit for solid averages while displaying excellent plate discipline. His numbers have faded over the past couple of years, so despite career skills of a .14 walk rate, 3.88 #P/PA, and 1.22 G-F, I don't expect he'll see an overly extended look in the majors.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark P. Johnson		51	7	.137	1	4	0	5	1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-4		-3		0
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	-4		-2		0

Johnson's terrible year included a .259/.343/.485 line in 270 at-bats at AAA Norfolk, an unwelcome departure from his .979 OPS in 152 at-bats the previous year. A .65 contact rate offers little hope for a rebound, so while he still possesses decent power and plate patience, he appears far too risky to own .

Today's Fantasy Rx: The offensive favorites for NL Rookie of the Year look like Marlon Byrd, Lyle Overbay, and Hee Seop Choi. Byrd and Overbay will find more playing time than Choi, placing them neck-and-neck with emerging pitchers like John Patterson and Kurt Ainsworth. While Overbay's received significantly less media attention than Choi, his skills are solid and he plays in a more favorable ballpark to hitters, so if you're going to invest in a single NL rookie position player, Overbay looks like the safest bet.