Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Third Basemen with Single-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Geoff Blum		368	104	.283	10	52	2	45	3
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	9		7		1		3
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	9		7		1		5

Blum surprised me by overcoming the skill deficiencies he'd displayed over the last couple years in the majors to emerge as a positive force for the Astros. While he continues to block Morgan Ensberg, who we still believe possesses a much higher ceiling, Blum either improved or roughly maintained all his 2001 skills. A rise in his walk rate from .09 to .13 keyed a welcome batting average improvement, so even though he didn't even steal a quarter of the bases he swiped the previous years, he finished right on the edge of double-digit value. Assuming he holds his starting job after a Spring Training battle and his terrible hair doesn't convince Jimy Williams to exile him to the far end of the bench, you should expect a similar performance from Blum in 2003.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Rob Mackowiak		385	94	.244	16	48	9	57	3/O
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	8		6		1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	8		6		1		1

While Mackowiak spent most of 2002 in the outfield, he subbed for Aramis Ramirez enough times to qualify at third for next season. He's currently slotted as the Pirates' starting centerfielder, although we believe they'll find an alternative and thereby return Mackowiak to his more familiar role as a utilityman. Mackowiak owns a surprising reverse platoon split in which he posted an OPS of 1.028 against southpaws and only a .720 OPS against right-handers. Consequently, I'd rather not see him platooned in right field with Craig Wilson, reportedly one of the options that Pittsburgh's considering. The major problem in his skills is a .69 contact rate, a worrisome drop from his .76 in 2001, and a simultaneous increase in his walk rate from .07 to .11 didn't stop his BA from falling 22 points. Although Mackowiak seems relatively likely to maintain his power and speed production, I don't believe he'll reach double-digit value, since even if he finds more playing time, his BA seems at risk to continue dropping.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mark Loretta		283	86	.304	4	27	1	33	3
MIL/HOU		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		6		5		1
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	7		5		5		5

We continue to read that Loretta will wind up starting at either third or short for some team in 2003, and anyone with a .381 OBP definitely deserves a regular job. Career-best marks of a .11 walk rate and 1.03 G-F demonstrate his skills are quite solid, and the combination of marginal power potential and additional at-bats would allow him to reach double-digit value next year. Assuming he finds a starting role and will spend much of his time hitting second for some team, I don't believe you'll see a loss on any bid up to $10.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tyler Houston		320	90	.281	7	40	1	34	3
MIL/LA		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	7		5		3		7
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	6		5		3		4

Thanks to scorching hot hitting before the break, including an unbelievable 1.254 OPS in 69 June at-bats, Houston received consideration for the All-Star team before netting the Brewers two solid prospects in a trade two weeks later. Of course, he only managed a .529 OPS in the second half, and lefties limited him to a .592 OPS over the entire year. He doesn't possess nearly the utility at third base as he did while catching, and with his power potential and patience decreasing, I don't even like him at a buck or two unless he finds guaranteed playing time, including some games behind the plate, before Spring Training starts.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Matt Williams		215	56	.260	12	40	3	29	3
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		4				3
2002 Age: 36	5x5:	5		4				2

Although he's likely owned for only a dollar or two in many keeper leagues, Matt Williams holds some intriguing possibilities for anyone in single-year leagues. His injury last season should not lead to any lasting problems, and while he doesn't possess the value he'd hold if Arizona had dealt him to Colorado, Williams still retains the skills necessary for a .275/20/80 season. Now I expect he'll finish closer to .260/15/60 due to new maladies, but I'd be happy to roster him if he's available for only a few bucks.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ty Wigginton		116	35	.302	6	18	2	18	3
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	4		3

If the Mets realized they were likely at least two full years from contending for the division, they'd let Wigginton start at third base and hope he develops into a serious power threat. There's no need to platoon him since he posted an .862 OPS against right-handers, and his 43:50 BB:K in 383 AAA at-bats demonstrates he possesses the necessary plate discipline to continue posting a solid BA. A 1.07 G-F indicates he also owns excellent power potential, so the Mets have no business adding competition for him since only the departed Edgardo Alfonzo likely would perform better. As long as he remains the undisputed starter, Wigginton's a good buy up to double-digits, and if he winds up in a bench role, he looks like a great bargain in the waning hours of the draft.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Mueller		366	96	.262	7	38	0	51	3
CHC/SF		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	4		3		4		7
2002 Age: 31	5x5:	5		4		4		5

Mueller's value will return to around $10 if he remains healthy for all of 2003. He seems fully capable of returning to a .380+ OBP. His 3.86 #P/PA was the best mark of his career, and his 1.30 G-F hints at growing power potential. Plus, both his .14 walk rate and .89 contact rate indicate his average could bounce back above his career .286 BA. I'd never expect anyone to exceed single-digits in bidding for Mueller, but if you need a relatively cheap cornerman to boost your BA, he should be undervalued as long as he doesn't sign with Colorado.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Aramis Ramirez		522	122	.234	18	71	2	51	3
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		3		17		25
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	5		4		17		25

By the time Ramirez turns 25 next June 25th, he'll have spent roughly three-and-a-half seasons in the majors. He posted very unimpressive numbers because the ankle injury he suffered in April continued to affect his play for the entire year. However we didn't see more than slight deterioration in any of his skills, making Ramirez as likely to return to his 2001 stats as any player in the game. You should bid into the high teens for him if you need a third baseman, and while a .300 BA might be unreasonable, a return to the 30/100 level looks very possible.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fernando Tatis		381	87	.228	15	55	2	43	3
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		0		9
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	3		3		1		10

Tatis seems likely to stay with the Expos due to his effectively untradable contract, but while he'll always possess the skills necessary to post some impressive numbers, his knee problems are chronic and largely debilitating. Since joining Montreal in 2001, he's seeing about .3 pitches less per game and his G-F has risen by nearly 50% to over 1.20. Neither his .09 walk rate nor a .76 contact rate compare favorably to his old numbers, so with essentially every one of his skills in decline, we can't expect to see stats much better than his 2002 numbers. Only roster Tatis if you need quantitative help and can absorb a BA hit.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Vinny Castilla		543	126	.232	12	61	4	56	3
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		2		6		10
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	3		3		7		12

Castilla took better advantage of Coors' Field than any other player, and now his contract ranks among the worst mistakes of John Schuerholz's Hall of Fame career. The truly shocking aspect of Castilla's season is that his G-F rate fell to a career-best 1.05. His contact rate also returned to .87 after a year at .80. He seems likely to either experience a marginal rebound or continue descending into a forced retirement at the end of 2003. I'm inclined to learn towards the former outcome given these skill trends, so if you're willing to risk a little BA damage, see if you can pick up Castilla for a few bucks; you might wind up with a nice profit.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Sean Burroughs		192	52	.271	1	11	2	18	3
SD Padres		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	1		1		19		16
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	1		1		18		13

Nothing in his profile suggested he wasn't ready for the majors, and yet he managed to experience one of the most disappointing rookie seasons in recent years. His 3.42 #P/PA and 2.09 G-F suggest little patience or power potential, but at least Burroughs' minor league skills remained intact. Though a variety of injuries throughout the season limited his effectiveness, he still compiled a .302/.380/.447 in 179 AAA at-bats, along with a 21:16 BB:K. He still possesses excellent overall potential, making now a great time to acquire him from a worried owner. However if he's only available in your auction, I wouldn't bid into the double-digits since we can't trust his BA and we won't see much power for at least another year.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jamey Carroll		71	22	.310	1	6	1	16	3
MON Expos		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	1		1

Please take a look at our Fantasy Review of Montreal Prospects for my comments on Carroll.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Greg Norton		168	37	.220	7	37	2	19	3
COL Rockies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	1		1		5		3
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	1		1		5		5

Norton currently appears the de facto starting third baseman in Colorado, however I certainly expect they'll acquire an alternative before the spring. If you're going to purchase a cheap third baseman, he may be your best option since he possesses both very good patience and power potential, so he definitely has the ability to reach double-digit value if he ever receives more than 250 at-bats. Limit your investment here to a buck or two if he's back in a bench role since he's likely to only earn a few bucks, but Norton would own intriguing upside even if he didn't play for Colorado.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wes Helms		210	51	.243	6	22	1	20	3/1
ATL Braves		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		-1		3
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	1		1		0		3

Helms posted a .688 OPS in 2002 while playing at first, third, and the outfield, and he also managed a reverse platoon split of a .532 OPS against lefties and a .742 OPS against right-handers. While he's never demonstrated much plate discipline in his career, he's held a 3.77 #P/PA in each of the last two seasons while averaging a .73 G-F, so he at least possesses both decent patience and excellent power potential. However since I expect he'll spend nearly all of 2003 as a reserve and his poor BA worries me, I wouldn't bother with Helms unless he's still available during Dollar Days.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Many owners in keeper leagues will lose a player or two to trades and free agent movement over the next couple days. Our best advice for the probable highs-and-lows of the weekend is to remember that we'll continue to hear about new deals past the Rule 5 draft on Monday and the close of the Winter Meetings. Considering that next Friday is the last date to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players, we're going to see another slew of free agents in a week. The Bell, Thome, and Glavine signings occurred very early in this offseason, so there's little reason to grow too happy or upset based on specific moves at this point.

Of course, if your GM has a history of ridiculous actions, then you can begin to panic at whatever moment seems appropriate.