Today's Fantasy Rx

American League Shortstops with Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

I debated slotting Shortstop Week behind both second basemen and third baseman based on the tremendous level of talent available in the AL. However, in the NL, there are better players available at second base, and shortstops are no better than even with the talent level at third base. So after looking at everyone in the majors, specifically the worst players at each position, I decided to leave the position weeks in the same order since the worst shortstops still are generally worse than the worst players at every other position except catcher.

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Rodriguez		624	187	.300	57	142	9	125	S
TEX Rangers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	38		29		40		42
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	37		28		37		40

Even though ARod finished with the most roto value of any AL shortstop, he still fell about $10 behind AL Roto MVP Alfonso Soriano as Soriano's advantage in steals completely negates ARod's superior power numbers. However, unlike Soriano, ARod has demonstrated the skills necessary to continue developing his exceptional tools. The only surprise in his splits is that ARod only managed a .239/.331/.453 against lefties while destroying right-handers for a .320/.412/.692, and over the previous three season's, he's held an OPS .081 higher against righties, suggesting that this trend will continue. While he also failed to set a new career-high in any skill, his combination of power, speed, and plate discipline is unmatched among infielders. Considering his career path and the probable improvement in the Rangers' offense due to better health and more experience for the youngsters, a .320/62/175 in 2003 season wouldn't shock us, making Rodriguez one of the safest investments in all of baseball.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Derek Jeter		644	191	.297	18	75	32	124	S
NY Yankees		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	35		27		32		29
2002 Age: 28	5x5:	35		26		32		29

Jeter finished the season as the 5th most valuable position player in American League roto, a surprising accomplishment given he didn't receive anywhere near the attention of ARod, Tejada, Nomar, or Eckstein. He set a career-high in steals by posting a surprisingly great success rate of 91%, and there's no indication he won't continue stealing over two-dozen bases a year. While Jeter experienced a slight drop in his contact rate to .82, his walk rate also rebounded to .11. I'm only mainly concerned about his G-F ratio, since he continued his oscillating trend of the last four years. Following a 3.05 G-F in 1997, Jeter's compiled successive annual rates of 2.46, 1.63, 2.10, 1.96, and now 2.23 in 2002, so we can't expect any power development in 2003. He should remain a steady $30 player given his overall skills and lineup placement, however he doesn't appear likely to see any quantitative breakout in the foreseeable future.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Miguel Tejada		662	204	.308	34	131	7	108	S
OAK Athletics		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	34		25		17		32
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	33		25		17		24

Even though he couldn't outperform ARod or Jeter in standard roto, Tejada still managed to accrue more value than all but 8 other AL position players. Now that he's found a lineup home in the #3 hole, he could even outstrip last year's production since he might see a greater number of at-bats with runners on-base; Eric Chavez's continued development will insure no one pitches around Tejada. Despite his controversial MVP win, Tejada also offers an intriguing fantasy opportunity. He consistently performs better in the second half, jumping from a .806 OPS to .927 this season, continuing a trend from the previous three years where he's moved from a .793 to .875 OPS on average. Barring a somewhat unexpected extension of his current deal, Tejada also will be entering the second half of a contract year, making him an excellent trade target around the 2003 All-Star break. Tejada's skill trends indicate he's primed for a first-half slump; his BB:K has fallen for two years, following a drop in his walk rate from .11 to .06 even as his contact rate has increased from .83 to .87. We also observed his G-F stop dropping and instead roll up to 1.25 after a 1.00 G-F in 2001. Even seeing an extra .25 pitches each plate appearance doesn't compensate for these other indicators, making Tejada a terrible candidate to sustain this growth in fantasy value. Likely ignore him in spring drafts, but as long as he maintains decent skills, we'll look forward to recommending him as summer begins.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nomar Garciaparra		635	197	.310	24	120	5	101	S
BOS Red Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	30		22		25		24
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	29		22		24		28

While he only played in 21 games in 2001 due to injury concerns, Nomar apparently fully recovered as he played in a career-high 156 games this year. However his walk rate fell from .12 in 1999 to .06 even as his contact rate stayed around .90, a surprising change given he averaged 3.05 #P/PA in 1999 and 3.06 in 2002. At least we can expect continued power development as his G-F has essentially fallen every year of his career, settling down to .87 in 2001 and then .71 in 2002. Unfortunately, his falling plate discipline and qualitative averages negate his probable quantitative improvement, so we can't expect him to remerge as a premiere fantasy contributor unless he can post another batting average over .350. Given his decreasing patience, Nomar's not a safe bet above $30.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Eckstein		608	178	.293	8	63	21	107	S
ANA Angels		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	25		19		17		16
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	26		19		17		11

Eckstein's OPS was 92 points worse against righties in 2001, and his OPS was 116 points worse against right-handers this season; he also struggled badly in each of the last two Septembers, barely averaging a .600 OPS. Additionally, we saw him fall from an 88% SB success rate to 62%. Of course, Eckstein's G-F dropped from 1.58 to 1.26 and his contact rate moved from .90 to .93 while he held a .07 walk rate. While this might increase his value to the Angels if he continues developing power, he's losing roto value due to his reduced SB contribution. I don't believe Eckstein's a reasonable gamble at anything over $20, especially since even if he takes advantage of his two seasons of experience to jump his OPS over .800 in 2003, the massive amount of post-season publicity he received almost guarantees an unreasonable bidding war in every league where he's available.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Omar Vizquel		582	160	.275	14	72	18	85	S
CLE Indians		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	21		16		10		6
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	21		16		11		12

Vizquel nearly always slips in the second half of the season, and he again accumulated most of his roto value this year before the All-Star break. Targeting Vizquel in the spring before looking to swap him for Tejada in June might be an interesting idea, however we really don't know what to expect from Vizquel in 2003. Both his 3.95 #P/PA and .85 G-F were career bests, but we don't see any solid trend that requires recommending him. Even with patience and better power, his plate discipline and overall speed skills are deteriorating, and most importantly, he turns 36 in April. I like Vizquel in the teens in spring drafts, although if you manage to acquire him at that apparent bargain, I'd start shopping him if he starts the season strongly as usual.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cristian Guzman		623	170	.273	9	59	12	80	S
MIN Twins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	16		12		16		20
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	16		12		16		18

Guzman plays one of the only two positions on the Twins where he probably won't face any serious prospect competition in the near future, giving him time to redevelop his skills after a very unimpressive season. Unlike 2001, Guzman didn't lose a quarter of the season to injury, but his production for both the Twins and his fantasy owners significantly fell. Aside from an increase in contact rate from .84 to .87, Guzman's skills slipped in nearly every other area, including walk rate(.04 '01; .03 '02), SB%(76% '01; 48% '02), #P/PA(3.43 '01; 3.18 '02), and G-F(1.65 '01; 2.04 '02). So Guzman's displaying far less patience, causing him to hit more weak grounders, and displaying horrendous baserunning instincts when he tries to steal. There is still plenty of time for him to rebound as he only turns 25 next March, but this combination of deteriorating skills is much too worrisome for you to risk any money on Guzman above the mid-teens.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Melvin Mora		557	130	.233	19	64	16	86	S/O
BAL Orioles		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		8		5		1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	12		9		6		6

If the Orioles don't re-sign Bordick, Mora should compete with Brian Roberts for the starting shortstop job. He looked set to post a fantastic season after a stunning April when he managed a .908 OPS on a 20:15 BB:K, but then he slumped before continuing his pattern of struggling in the second half, declining .114 in OPS after averaging a .122 decline in OPS over the previous three seasons. At least a jump in his walk rate from .07 to .11 and a G-F drop from .79 to .75 were promising, however Mora's never shown the ability to build upon his brief skill improvements. While Mora possesses the necessary incentive to increase his production with his quintuplets beginning the Terrible Twos next July, I don't envision him amassing double-digit value again in 2003.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Valentin		474	118	.249	25	75	3	70	S/3
CH White Sox		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		8		11		15
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	11		9		12		19

Valentin will slide back to shortstop next season after the disastrous two-year stay of Royce Clayton, and while he shouldn't hold eligibility at multiple positions beyond 2003, you'll still benefit from his position flexibility for one more year. Unfortunately, Valentin's many severe splits suggest Jerry Manuel should consider platooning him. In 2002, he regressed from just posting an OPS more than 200 points higher against righties to compiling a .153/.204/.261 against left-handers and a .259/.322/.502 against right-handers. Among less extreme splits, he also plays much better at home, at night, and on grass in an open stadium. Valentin's speed is basically gone, he's showing less plate patience, and he even posted a career-worst .79 G-F. Without much hope for a BA jump, SB improvement, or power development, Valentin could remain overpriced next season, and you should probably withdraw from next spring's auctions before bidding on Valentin enters the teens.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Desi Relaford		329	88	.267	6	43	10	55	S/3/O
SEA Mariners		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		8		6		6
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	10		8		6		1

Relaford obviously possesses among the best position flexibility in the game, and he could wind up spending significant time in the starting lineup if he continues to outperform Jeff Cirillo. Although he struggles against many lefties, he managed a quite decent .292/.353/.421 against right-handers, and along with acceptable plate discipline, good speed, and some promise of power development, Relaford remains a very nice MIF target. He shouldn't approach this price in most spring drafts, so you should be pleased with his performance if you can grab him for $5 or so in your league, a fairly logical price given his probable status as a reserve when the Mariners break camp.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With four $30+ shortstops and two more at $20+, the AL appears extremely strong, but then only Cristian Guzman finished with a value in the teens, indicating a sharp drop from the elite four to the third tier. In most of our AL leagues, we can invariably grab one of the big four at a discount most years, and Jeter's been our preferred target for two years since he'll return value in the $20s due to his BA and Steals alone. Further power development should move him close to $40. You can also trust ARod and Tejada in particular to stay healthy, so there's no reason not to stay in the early bidding to secure monster numbers in the middle infield.