Today's Fantasy Rx

For reference, here are two tables which spurred Wednesday's column:

AL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.61	.11	.82	69%	.276/.349/.443
2001	.50	.09	.81	71%	.267/.344/.428
2002	.51	.09	.82	68%	.264/.329/.424

NL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.56	.11	.80	69%	.266/.342/.432
2001	.48	.10	.80	66%	.261/.331/.425
2002	.52	.10	.80	68%	.259/.328/.410

AL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	78547	11995	2688	11418	1297
2001	78164	11013	2506	10508	1647
2002	77788	10892	2464	10271	1236

NL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	88743	12976	3005	12317	1626
2001	88100	12186	2952	11580	1456
2002	87794	11516	2595	10961	1514

Batting Average

Neither league experienced even half the decline between 2001 and this season that they endured between 2000 and 2001. However league BA continues to sink despite an uptick in BB:K ratio, and nothing in the basic batting skills provides a rationale for falling averages.

Nineteen American Leaguers finished the season as .300 hitters, from Manny Ramirez at .349 to Alex Rodriguez at .2996794. Aside from Mike Sweeney(.340), Bernie Williams(.333), Ichiro Suzuki(.321), and Magglio Ordonez(.320), no one else even managed a .315 as three batters fell between .310 and .314 and two more posted averaged in the .305-.309 range. Moving down the list to the .264 league BA, we observe the following breakdowns of the 70 hitters who qualified for the BA title:

BA		# of Players
.340+		2(M.Ramirez & M.Sweeney)
.330-.339	1(B.Williams)
.320-.329	2
.310-.319	3
.300-.309	11
.290-.299	5
.280-.289	8
.270-.279	10
.265-.269	4
.264		1(Carlos Lee)
.260-.263	3
.250-.259	7
.240-.249	9
.239-		4(Cameron, N.Perez, Mora, & Mondesi)

The elite hitters look quite impressive but between .240 and .310, between 5 and 11 players rest in each .010 delineation. Let's run this chart against last years numbers to see what trends emerge, and I'll also add the .267 league BA from 2001 to provide more separation in the numbers.

BA		'02 #	'01 #
.350		0	1(Ichiro)
.340-.349	2	1(Ja.Giambi)
.330-.339	1	3(R.Alomar, B.Boone, & F.Cat)
.320-.329	2	1(JuanGone)
.310-.319	3	4(ARod, Stewart, Jeter, & Conine)
.300-.309	11	9
.290-.299	5	2
.280-.289	8	10
.270-.279	10	10
.268-.269	1	3
.267		1	6
.265-.266	2	2
.264		1	1
.260-.263	3	3
.250-.259	7	12
.240-.249	9	1
.239-		4	6
		70	75

The number of players with batting averages in the .270-.289 range stayed very consistent. Elite hitters lost around 10 points of BA and most settled into the .290-.309 range. Finally, average hitters slipped to the lower ranges as some hitters with truly poor batting averages(Brady Anderson, Greg Vaughn, and Cal Ripken, Jr.) stopped qualifying for the BA title for various reasons.

While this will seem obvious to many of you, the correlation between success and playing time seemed to increase in 2002. The percentage of qualified players at or above the league average increased from 67% to 74% this year. Therefore the best strategy for AL BA, especially given the falling averages of the elite hitters, is to focus on distributing your payroll to as many everyday players as possible. You'll not only accumulate at-bats and therefore improve your quantitative stats, but the above breakdown indicates you might raise your BA since teams appear more ready to experiment with a few different players unless they secure a quality starter.

However will this trend continue in the NL? We probably should find a way to remove Barry Bonds(.370) from the conversation altogether given he again managed the best offensive season ever while becoming the oldest first-time batting title winner.

Following Bonds, Larry Walker(.338), Vlad Guerrero(.336), Todd Helton(.329), and Chipper Jones(.327) are the lone other NL players to post averages above .315. We'll again turn to a table to analyze the 79 National Leaguers who qualified for the batting title, splitting our list at the .259 league BA.

BA		# of Players
.370		1(Bonds)
.330-.339	2
.320-.329	2
.310-.319	4
.300-.309	7
.290-.299	5
.280-.289	13
.270-.279	14	
.260-.269	10
.259		1(Mo Vaughn)
.250-.258	9
.240-.249	8
.239-		3(A.Ramirez, V.Castilla, & J.Burnitz)

Sixteen National Leaguers can brag that they're ".300 hitters", although unlike the more balanced AL, the NL seems very bunched around the average BA. To see if the 2001-02 AL trend occurred in both leagues, we'll add the NL breakdown for 2001, along with inputting the .261 2001 NL average as another break point.

BA		'02 #	'01 #
.370		1	0
.350		0	1(L.Walker)
.330-.339	2	4
.320-.329	2	7
.310-.319	4	5
.300-.309	7	9
.290-.299	5	8
.280-.289	13	6
.270-.279	14	12
.262-.269	8	8
.261		1	1(Bubba Trammell)
.260		1	1
.259		1	0
.250-.258	9	6
.240-.249	8	5
.239-		3	4
		79	77

While several hitters appeared to plummet from the .300-.319 range to the .280-.299 range, the percentage of hitters at or above the league average BA declined from 79% to 75%. Of course, now the two leagues have reached almost identical rates of hitters at or above the league average BA, with both leagues boasting about three-quarters of their regulars at that level.

Offensive Synthesis

To determine the proper course of action for each league, I'll return to my recommendations from the last two days. Depending on the potential movement of guys like Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre, I expect a small transfer of NL steals to the AL. I don't expect any free agent will significantly affect league values as the best offensive players available are Jim Thome, Jeff Kent, John Olerud, Edgar Martinez, Ivan Rodriguez, Fred McGriff, Edgardo Alfonzo, Ray Durham, Jose Hernandez, and Cliff Floyd. Thome, Kent, Olerud, Edgar, Alfonzo, and even Hernandez and Floyd should remain with their current teams, and IRod, McGriff, and Durham will shift few teams' roto fortunes.

Although I've advised spreading your budget over several players in the past instead of the "Stars and Scrubs" strategy favored by fantasy veterans like Steve Moyer, I believe 2003 makes this strategy even more important. Every year we see players like Geoff Jenkins and J.D. Drew significantly overbid because of their potential when only one or two younger players will likely emerge as roto studs in a given year.

Only five players jump out as solid $40+ investments in either new leagues or leagues with minimal inflation: Alex Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi, and Sammy Sosa. Of the other players in the top 10 in the majors in OPS, Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, and Larry Walker are injury risks, and Brian Giles and Jim Thome play for weaker teams with less chance at RBI and Runs. However they're probably two of the most underrated players in many leagues and both have established themselves as tremendous assets to any team.

Unless you're securing one of these elite players, I'd have a difficult time even bidding $40 on Alfonso Soriano due to his poor plate discipline. Investing in players aged 22-28 for $20-$29 will likely give you a far greater chance for significant profit. We far prefer the possibility of buying both an Edgar Renteria and Aramis Ramirez for $40 next year in many leagues, rather than the strategy of spending $40 on a Carlos Delgado or a Nomar Garciaparra, whom might never return to their formerly elite levels.

Park Factors

The percentage of runs scored in Coors compared to the average stadium has decreased from 165% in 2000 to 147% last year and now 118% in 2002. Colorado's obnoxiously poor hitters have caused much of this fall, but the dramatic decrease this season does seem due to another factor, potentially the infamous humidor. When writing for Baseball Prospectus back in July, Rany Jazayerli posited that Coors' primary effects are to decrease strikeouts by 14%(pre-humidor), increase homers by 60%, and increase BA on balls in play by about 49 points. The humidor, by potentially deadening the baseballs, will cut into all three of these effects, increasing strikeouts and decreasing homers and BA. While I don't currently possess the necessary data to compute these changes, the drop in overall run production has left Coors as only a slightly better hitters' park than Kansas City, Houston, or Texas the next three worst parks for pitchers.

Of course Colorado also fielded a team of players like Juans Pierre and Uribe, hitters whose skills particularly negate the Coors' benefits. Adding batters like Jay Payton and Gabe Kapler who can benefit from the extra yardage on long flyballs might reverse the current trend of decreasing offense.

Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego host the best pitchers' parks, each only providing about 92% of the offense of a normal stadium. KC's Kauffman Stadium is at 109% while the two Texas parks rest at about 105%, so despite the reduction in offense, no other stadium is within 50% of the difference between Coors and the average park.

Todd Helton and any other high skills' hitters who play 81 home games at Coors will continue to rank as top players. Pitchers from LA, SF, SD, the New York Mets, Seattle, the Chicago Cubs, and Detroit rank as the obvious best investments, while hitters in KC and anywhere in Texas will receive a significant advantage. Taking these factors into consideration, you should spend any $40 allocation on players in the following order next year, assuming no one unexpectedly changes teams:

Alex Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Jason Giambi, Sammy Sosa, Brian Giles, and Jim Thome, which is essentially the same order I hypothesized before considering park factors and all players whom should go in the first round of any draft. For twelve team mixed leagues, I'd add Randy Johnson, Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, and Alfonso Soriano as players to complete that first round.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

3:00: Oakland@Minnesota
7:00: New York@Anaheim

Today is the last day to vote in the Internet Baseball Awards, and we recommend our readers head over there to submit their ballots in the only overly relevant post-season awards voted upon by a relatively enlightened electorate. We've already filled our ballots for post-season awards, although like last year, we're not releasing our complete lists until the awards are announced.