Today's Fantasy Rx

To analyze the extent of 2002 statistical tendencies in the five traditional hitting categories of HR, RBI, BA, SB, and Runs, I'll discuss each stat within a league context. I'm obviously not spending a significant amount of time focusing in this area, but I'd like to get an idea of how the 2002 category leaders rank against past seasons. We're already going over our keeper teams, and we'd like to know if we need to place additional importance on any particular categories.

First, we'll examine the skills of the average hitter in each league over the last three seasons.

AL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.61	.11	.82	69%	.276/.349/.443
2001	.50	.09	.81	71%	.267/.344/.428
2002	.51	.09	.82	68%	.264/.329/.424

NL	BB:K	BB/9	CT%	SB%	BA/OBP/SLG
2000	.56	.11	.80	69%	.266/.342/.432
2001	.48	.10	.80	66%	.261/.331/.425
2002	.52	.10	.80	68%	.259/.328/.410

Although the general decline in offense in both leagues seems apparent, I'm probably most surprised by the almost identical OBPs between the two leagues this year. Oakland, New York, and Toronto are probably the most sabermetrically-inclined organizations, and yet as a whole, the AL walks even less the NL while also correspondingly making better contact. However the abrupt drop in BB:K and slightly less dramatic decline in walk rate last year seems attributable to the "new strike zone".

Before continuing, here are the raw counting numbers for the last three years.

AL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	78547	11995	2688	11418	1297
2001	78164	11013	2506	10508	1647
2002	77788	10892	2464	10271	1236

NL	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB
2000	88743	12976	3005	12317	1626
2001	88100	12186	2952	11580	1456
2002	87794	11516	2595	10961	1514

Stolen Bases

Regarding the potential SB aberration last year, aside from Roger Cedeno, I can't recall any speedster who moved from the NL to the AL and then returned to the NL over the last three years. Seattle, New York, Toronto, and Detroit lost a total of 251 steals, although we can attribute the latter two moves respectively to the influence of J.P. Ricciardi and the departure of Phil Garner(and Roger Cedeno). Seattle saw Ichiro, Cameron, and McLemore slump this year, and New York lost Knoblauch and generally seemed to de-emphasize aggressive baserunning after adding Giambi, thereby refocusing on walks and OBP. So while steals are down on average, the development of Dave Roberts and Alex Sanchez helped boost the NL numbers.

In the National League, only the top 10 basestealers reached 30 SB while the top four of Luis Castillo(48), Juan Pierre(47), D.Roberts(3), and Vlad Guerrero(40) achieved 40 steals. Last year, only co-leaders Jimmy Rollins and Juan Pierre(46SB) grabbed more than 37 bags. A total of 16 players reached 20 SB and Vlad(37), Bobby Abreu(36), Castillo(33), and EY(31) hit 30 SB. This season, 18 National Leaguers stole 20 or more bases, so while the number of helpful basestealers remained about the same, the faster players stole more bases in 2002 than in 2001. Unfortunately this could change downward next year as Castillo and Pierre could change teams and potentially leagues while Aaron Boone(32) or Andy Fox(31) are somewhat unlikely to repeat their performances.

Over in the AL, 15 players reached 20 SB, six exceeded 30 SB, and only Alfonso Soriano(41) grabbed more than 35. Carlos Beltran(35), Derek Jeter(32), Johnny Damon(31), Mike Cameron(31), and Ichiro Suzuki(31) comprise the upper tier of AL speedsters, and none of them appears likely to change teams. In 2001, Ichiro(56) and Soriano(55) dominated steals while Soriano grabbed 43 bags, 9 more players reached 30 or more, and 26 different players hit 20 SB.

For 2003, I suspect normally expected player movement to shift some steals back to the AL, although I'd still suggest keeping any of the six top AL thieves from this season. Also avoid dealing players like Abreu and Rollins who likely won't change teams, but I wouldn't be surprised if even a new stud like Dave Roberts regressed next year to some extent.

Home Runs

Alex Rodriguez paced the AL with 57 bombs, Thome smacked 52, Rafael Palmeiro(43) and Jason Giambi(41) also broke 40. Eight more players reached 30 homers this season, so we didn't see much of an overall drop in power since only 15 American Leaguers managed 30 or more in 2001. Last year ARod again led the league, still followed by Thome(49) and Palmeiro(47), and then Manny Ramirez and Troy Glaus each hit 41 homers. Examining the general breakdowns, I don't see any apparent change in AL homers this year, and I also don't expect one next year, although someone like Eric Chavez seems poised to replace Palmeiro as the third elite slugger.

In the NL, Sosa led the league with 49 roundtrippers, followed by MVP Bonds(46), Shawn Green(42) and Lance Berkman(42). A total of 15 National Leaguers managed 30 or more bombs, a sharp decreased from the 25 members of the Senior Circuit that reached 30 or more in 2001. The 2001 elite also appeared much more impressive, beginning with Bonds' 73 and Sosa' 64, each pushed by Luis Gonzalez(57), Green(49), Todd Helton(49), Richie Sexson(45), and Phil Nevin(41). Therefore both the numbers of NL players with 30 or more homers and 40 or more homers dropped by almost half this season despite the number of 20+ HR players remaining at around 40 for both leagues in each of the last two seasons.

My conclusion here is that the NL finally corrected itself to the AL standards after years of superhuman achievement. Fifty or more homers should remain a regular occurrence for a couple players in each league, and I can see select power hitters breaking 60 occasionally, but I think both leagues will remain closer to the mid-2000 homer range instead of approaching 3000 on an annual basis.

Since I wanted to complete much of the revised LPR rankings before I presented those articles, I'm going to hold those articles back for a few weeks until I have more time to update our databases. So instead I'm extending this series a few more days to discuss the remaining categories in more details, as well as hopefully covering a few other items of interest.

Today's Fantasy Rx: My predictions for today's games(all times CDT):

12:00: San Francisco@Atlanta
3:00: Minnesota@Oakland
7:00: Anaheim@New York

When thinking about your team for next year, look for as many players as possible that can contribute 20 homers and 80 RBI, especially if they can also add 10 SB. Accumulating as many starting position players as possible will help boost you in quantitative categories since you don't have to worry about someone with a Bonds or Sosa completely outpacing you.