Today's Fantasy Rx

In discussing Rotosiren hitters yesterday, I ignored perpetually unhealthy players like J.D. Drew since drastic swings in performance by players with injuries affect values in a fundamentally different way than inconsistency by normally healthy performers. I'll adopt the same philosophy when discussing pitchers, especially since plenty of hurlers in both leagues stayed healthy all year and didn't meet expectations.

You must drive straight on past, but melt down sweet wax of honey
and with it stop your companions' ears, so none can listen;

Jeff Suppan bookended his season with a 3.19 ERA in April and a 3.78 ERA in September. In between, he posted a disastrous 6.39 ERA in 132.1 IP. Given his 13:13 K:BB in September, along with only managing a 03234 PQS log this month, he looks like a poor play for next year unless he winds up with a team that will provide both good run support and a defensive upgrade.

Both of Kansas City's full-time starters displayed some troubling trends. Paul Byrd won 8 games through May with a 2.88 ERA, followed by only 2 wins and a 7.71 ERA in June. He repeated the pattern in the second half of the year, posting 5 wins on a 2.72 ERA in June and July before crashing in September to a 6.75 ERA and 2 wins. We've recently seen reports that the changes to Kauffman Stadium a few years ago have left the KC field as the best hitters' park in the AL, and that helps explain some of the Royals' pitching problems. Byrd and Suppan respectively rank 2nd and 4th in the AL in homers allowed, so a more favorable environment might aid Byrd in repeating this seasons unlikely success.

Perennial trade bait and pending free agent Kenny Rogers never won more than three games or less than one game in any month, but his ERA was remarkably inconsistent on a monthly basis: 2.03, 4.41, 3.60, 4.87, 5.08, 3.09. Consequently while he posted decent overall numbers for the year, anyone trading for him likely missed his best month.

Only three American League pitchers managed a 5555 PQS streak at any point this year. Aside from Pedro and developing John Stephens, Freddy Garcia also displayed consistent excellence, running a 1st half streak of 55553444555045 that unsurprisingly ended after the All-Star game debacle. He only managed three dominant starts in the second half and couldn't prevent the Mariners' fall to 3rd in the division. As his success followed an unimpressive 23302 PQS log to open the season, we're worried about his consistency going into 2003.

Over in the NL, while Jimmy Anderson was the worst skilled starter this year, only managing one dominant start out of 27, at least he didn't even tempt owners like the inconsistent Ruben Quevedo. Seven pitchers posted at least a 5555 at some point in the season, but we expected that performance from Randy and Schilling, and the success of Schmidt, Finley, and Nomo isn't too surprising. Quevedo sandwiched his streak between a 00241203 and a horrible 1004103114002 that required his demotion. After opening the year with a 4.62 April ERA, he posted a sparkling 2.33 ERA during his May streak, but successive months of a 6.59, 7.52, and 11.57 ERA leave him scrambling to remain in the Brewers' pitching picture. Hopefully sitting out the end of the season to rest his arm will help, as while we like his long-term potential, his immediate future doesn't look too promising.

Brian Lawrence was the seventh NL hurler that racked a 5555 at some point, and while his schedule largely impacted these marks, he still appeared quite inconsistent, posting monthly ERAs of 2.11, 5.46, 3.83, 2.65, 4.34, and 4.64. However he's still a solid choice for next season given he's likely only struggled towards the end of the year due to tiredness.

Of all 30 teams, only Luke Prokopec(4/4/4) and Nate Cornejo(3/3/3) posted equal numbers of DOM, DUL, and DIS starts. Expanding our search slightly, we find that several pitchers almost reached maximum inconsistency, including Pete Walker(7/6/7), Ted Lilly(5/6/5), Adam Bernero(3/4/4), Ryan Franklin(3/4/4/), Rolando Arrojo(3/2/3), Rafael Soriano(3/2/3), Ricardo Rodriguez(2/3/2), Delvin James(2/1/2) in the AL. In the Senior Circuit, Kirk Saarloos(5/5/6), Joey Hamilton(6/5/6), Carl Pavano(7/7/6), Brian Moehler(3/4/4), Travis Smith(3/4/3), Brian Meadows(4/4/3), Jason Middlebrook(2/1/2), Joe Beimel(3/3/2), and Aaron Cook(2/2/1), all were only one start short of compiling a third of their starts in each category of starts. Of all these pitchers, the only ones I recommend for next year at this time, in order, are Ted Lilly, Jason Middlebrook, Rafael Soriano, Ryan Franklin, and Kirk Saarloos.

the rest, that is, but if you yourself are wanting to hear them,
then have them tied you hand and foot on the fast ship, standing
upright against the mast with the ropes' ends lashed around it,
so that you can have joy in hearing the song of the Sirens;

Irregular relief pitching is normally far less painful than starters since we can weather an occasional month of a 6+ ERA if that pitcher is only contributing a third of the innings of a starter. Save inconsistency is more troublesome, but at least owning a closer most of the year alleviates some of the worry.

Despite watching his skills disintegrate in the second half, leaving him a questionable choice for 2003, Mesa managed an intriguing monthly trend.

		ERA	Saves
April		3.18	6
May		3.14	9
June		.69	5
July		6.08	9
August		2.03	10
September	2.61	6

Following the same expectations we hold for most closers, his quantitative contributions did not match his qualitative stats. He provided significant bullpen help after the All-Star break even while suffering with a 23:19 K:BB in 32.2 IP.

Discussing the save situations in Florida and Montreal would fill a couple of columns, but nearly everyone who owned one of the primary relievers in either pen wound up disappointed at some point. The amount of saves this year, from Smoltz's new NL record and Gagne's amazing 50+ saves, to the White Sox with three different pitchers posting either 10 or 11 saves, certainly exceeded our expectations. Twenty-five pitchers reached at least 20 saves, and of healthy, full-time closers, only Mike DeJean and Jorge Julio failed to reach 30 aside from Antonio Alfonseca, who was the sole regular stopper who didn't even save 20 games. Five teams saw two different pitchers reach double-digit saves, and some of the best 2003 closers might be pitchers like Francisco Cordero and Scott Williamson who only recently secured the closers' role. However, betting on established closers likely didn't cost you much, as Nen, Percival, Urbina, Hoffman, Sasaki, Wagner, Kim, and Benitez all compiled very solid seasons; only Mariano Rivera, due to his injuries, was a decent disappointment among the known studs who own great skills.

Middle relief provided a great opportunity for some breakthough performers like J.C. Romero, Chad Bradford, and Luis Vizcaino, although some of the pitchers with the most holds struggled at times. Paul Quantrill opened the year with a 5.40 ERA before months of 3.18, .87, 2.08, 2.19, and 1.86; the injuries to Prokopec and Chad Ricketts left LA a clear winner from that trade even before considering Cesar Izturis. Severe overwork from the last few years appeared to catch up to Scott Sullivan, as after a 2.08 ERA, he slumped to months of 5.93, 6.62, and 5.29 before totally collapsing after July to an 11.77 ERA. Expecting a rebound in August, or even hoping for him to take over closing from Graves, just didn't work out for Sullivan owners this year.

but if you supplicate your men and implore them to set you
free, then they must tie you fast with even more lashing.

Relievers in general are less likely to emerge as true rotosirens as long as you focus on pitchers with both good current and historical skills. Established consistent performers who've remained in the same place in essentially the same role for a couple seasons, such as Arthur Rhodes and Octavio Dotel are your best bets going into 2003. We also expect the revised LPR lists to provide even more help in analyzing pitchers for next season.

Tomorrow I'll return to Sunday Morning Musings for the first time in several months, and then on Monday we'll begin our end-of-season review by analyzing the effectiveness of some of my predictions. Later in the week I'll discuss the LPR update and on Monday, October 7th, I'll begin reviewing each team's minor league system .

Today's Fantasy Rx: While out driving last night, we chanced past the Mount Prospect Welcome sign, which included an electronic panel. Instead of announcing town happenings or a friendly greeting as you'd expect, it repeatedly flashed "Act One Communications 18x96 LED Screen". If anyone reading this owns or operates one of these scroll boards outside their place of business, please make sure you program a new message into it so that I don't feel the need to mock you here in the future. Hopefully Act One at least appreciates the free advertising thanks to the "decision" to play the default message during a peak travel time.

All previous italicized text from these past two articles is from the Perennial Classics' edition of Homer's The Odyssey, translated by Richmond Lattimore.