Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Eddie Oropesa, LH Reliever
2-0 on 18:15 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 31 G with 39 H, 6 HR, and a 10.73 ERA.

These qualitative numbers seem much worse than his skills suggest, although he's still not pitching anywhere near as well as he's managed in the minors. While his control problems from AAA have left him with a 33:32 career K:BB in the majors, a drop in his G-F from 3.00 in 2001 to 1.64 G-F this year fueled the homer rate jump from .5 HR/9 to 2.2 this season. The acquisition of Mike Myers at least means that the Diamondbacks don't need to rely on Oropesa or Greg Swindell, so Arizona fans should hope that both these homer-prone run machines stay off the playoff rosters. Deal or cut Oropesa if you'd previously rostered him in the hope of some vultured wins.

August Underachiever: Matt Mantei, RH Reliever
Old stats: 2-2 on 16:5 K:BB in 14 IP over 18 GS with 17 H, 2 HR, and a 5.65 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 5:6 K:BB in 9 IP over 9 GS with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 3.00 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rick Helling, RH Starter; May: Miguel Batista, RH Swingman; June: Greg Swindell, LH Reliever; July: Brian Anderson, LH Starter.

Atlanta: Jason Marquis, RH Starter
8-9 on 82:48 K:BB in 112.1 IP over 21 GS with 125 H, 19 HR, and 5.05 ERA.

Marquis's managed as many disasters as dominant starts, and his current 40200 five-start PQS leaves him practically unownable. While his command at least is gradually improving, he's only up to a 1.7 K:BB, and he show no signs of emerging as a quality starter. Even more distressing is a G-F rate that's dropped from 1.48 in 2000 to 1.39 last year and 1.11 this season, causing his homer rate to jump over .5 HR/9. Since he's only 24, he should develop into a reliable pitcher, but contenders should deal or reserve Marquis for now.

August Underachiever: Greg Maddux, RH Starter
Old stats: 11-5 on 88:34 K:BB in 150.1 IP over 26 GS with 144 H, 9 HR, and a 2.63 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 20:10 K:BB in 37 IP over 6 GS with 41 H, 4 HR, and a 2.92 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: John Smoltz, RH Closer; May: Kevin Millwood, RH Starter; June: Albie Lopez, RH Swingman; July: Tim Spooneybarger, RH Reliever.

Chicago Cubs: Kerry Wood, RH Starter
11-10 on 200:92 K:BB in 200.2 IP over 31 GS with 159 H, 20 HR, and a 3.81 ERA.

Wood's dominated in almost every start since the All-Star break, but despite the great pitching and solid run support, he's not even at a dozen wins due to terrible relief work from the Cubs' pen. While there's nothing overly impressive about his raw numbers, he's finally stayed healthy for an entire year and could contend for the Cy Young next year if his teammates stop sabotaging his otherwise consistently effective performances. I'm somewhat concerned that his G-F has dropped from a 1.02 G-F his rookie season to .98, .86, and then a .83 G-F this season, suggesting he's lucky to hold a homer rate under 1.0. Fortunately his excellent PQS scores, including his current 35443, indicate he's a great target for anyone to acquire.

August Underachiever: Kyle Farnsworth, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-5 on 35:18 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 34 G with 40 H, 7 HR, and a 6.88 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or reserve.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 7:6 K:BB in 8.2 IP over 8 G with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 9.35 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Bere, RH Starter; May: Jeff Fassero, LH Reliever; June: Jason Bere, RH Starter; July: Antonio Alfonseca, RH Closer.

Cincinnati: Jared Fernandez, RH Swingman
1-3 on 35:24 K:BB in 49.2 IP over 8 GS(13G) with 59 H, 5 HR, and a 4.53 ERA.

Despite pitching much better as a starter than in relief, Cincinnati mostly ignored Fernandez this year even though he deserves an extended look as their #4. However aside from an acceptable 6.3 K/9 and .9 HR/9, which is lower than expected given his 1.70 G-F, his control problems and hittability leave him too risky to own. Deal or cut him until he finds an established role.

August Underachiever: Bruce Chen, LH Reliever
Old stats: 72:36 K:BB in 70 IP over 42 G(6GS) with 78 H, 15 HR, and a 5.27 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 7:6 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 7 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 11.57 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever; May: Joey Hamilton, RH Starter; June: Scott Sullivan, RH Reliever; July: Ryan Dempster, RH Starter.

Colorado: Chris Nichting, RH Reliever
1-1 on 25:5 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 29 G with 40 H, 7 HR, and a 4.46 ERA.

While the drop in dominance from 8.5 K/9 last year to 6.2 K/9 this season certainly worries me, he's also managed to maintain his outstanding 5.0 K:BB. He's holding a G-F above 1.00, so his 1.7 HR/9 appears high. Nichting owns a nice set of skills and would compete with Speier to close if Jimenez ran into problems. However, like any Rockies' reliever, Nichting doesn't offer much value unless he's used in the late innings, especially since he's only accumulated two decisions in twenty-nine appearances, so deal or cut him for now.

August Underachiever: Shawn Chacon, RH Starter
Old stats: 5-11 on 67:60 K:BB in 119.1 IP over 21 GS with 121 H, 25 HR, and a 5.58 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: No stats due to Colorado demoting him and then not pitching him since his September recall.

Previous Underachievers: April: John Thomson, RH Starter; May: Denny Neagle, LH Starter; June: Mike Hampton, LH Starter; July: Todd Jones, RH Reliever.

Florida: Justin Wayne, RH Starter
1-2 on 10:9 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 3 GS with 14 H, 2 HR, and a 5.17 ERA.

He only managed a 77:45 K:BB in 141.1 IP, and while only allowing 117 H and 10 HR is good, Wayne posted a 70:34 K:BB in 92.2 AA innings last season. Florida can afford to keep him in the minors another year or two since he won't even turn 23 until spring, though we don't expect him to produce in the majors if they keep him next April. I like his long-term upside a lot but would deal or cut Wayne in any league where I couldn't keep him in the minors for 2003.

August Underachiever: Vladimir Nunez, RH Reliever
Old stats: 20 Saves on 52:29 K:BB in 70 IP over 58 G with 64 H, 6 HR, and a 3.73 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or reserve.
Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 14:5 K:BB in 19.2 IP over 13 G with 12 H, 2 HR, and a 2.75 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Penny, RH Starter; May: Josh Beckett, RH Starter; June: Braden Looper, RH Reliever; July: Julian Tavarez, RH Starter.

Houston: Tom Gordon, RH Reliever
1-3 on 44:13 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 30 G with 39 H, 2 HR, and a 3.11 ERA.

After some initial struggles when he returned just prior to the All-Star break after missing the first three months while recovering from spring surgery to repair his torn teres muscle, Gordon's returned to the form that he's shown when dominating in the past. All his ratios vary between excellent and rather good, although I'm slightly concerned that his .90 G-F, already much lower than his 1.51 career average, might cause him homer troubles as long as he's in a hitters' park. Fortunately the Astros provide an environment that at least will allow him a chance at some vultured wins, and since he'll also likely wind up closing somewhere in 2003, he's an excellent target to acquire.

August Underachiever: Carlos Hernandez, LH Starter
Old stats: 6-4 on 75:47 K:BB in 90.2 IP over 17 GS(19G) with 90 H, 11 HR, and a 4.67 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 18:14 K:BB in 20.1 IP over 4 GS with 22 H, 0 HR, and a 3.10 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Billy Wagner, LH Closer; May: Scott Linebrink, RH Reliever; June: Tim Redding, RH Starter; July: Wade Miller, RH Starter.

Los Angeles: Paul Shuey, RH Reliever
7-2 on 58:31 K:BB in 64 IP over 64 G with 54 H, 3 HR, and a 3.52 ERA.

His struggles since joining Los Angeles rank as one of the most surprising developments of the year as he'd nearly always succeeded in a setup role in the past. All of his skills remain solid except for his control; he held a 2.4 BB/9 in Cleveland and now he's posting a disgusting 7.1 BB/9 with the Dodgers, leaving him at a .9 K:BB. Shuey's under contract for another couple years and has almost no save opportunities with Gagne and likely Darren Dreifort targeted for the late innings, so despite his success prior to the trade, contenders should deal or reserve him to avoid further qualitative damage.

August Underachiever: Hideo Nomo, RH Starter
Old stats: 11-6 on 132:77 K:BB in 165.2 IP over 26 GS with 146 H, 19 HR, and a 3.53 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4-0 on 45:21 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 6 GS with 33 H, 5 HR, and a 2.43 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Brown, RH Starter; June: Giovanni Carrara, RH Reliever; July: Andy Ashby, RH Starter.

Milwaukee: Jose Cabrera, RH Swingman
6-10 on 60:36 K:BB in 101.2 IP over 48 G(11GS) with 129 H, 23 HR, and a 6.91 ERA.

After a season of relatively solid skills marred by a 5.92 ERA in 2000 and a 2.88 ERA last season despite a 1.7 K:BB, Cabrera appeared headed for something like a 4.00 ERA and 2.0+ K:BB. Instead the Brewers left him in long relief and let him start in almost a quarter of his appearances. He didn't manage a single 5 and only posted two 4 scores in those 11 starts, so he definitely doesn't belong in the rotation. Yet he's also holding a career-best .75 G-F, and he's never truly struggled with homers in earlier years in the majors. I suspect he'll remain in the majors even with an ERA approaching 7.00, although his limited upside means you should deal or cut him immediately.

August Underachiever: Jamey Wright, RH Starter
Old stats: 5-12 on 65:60 K:BB in 106.1 IP over 18 GS with 107 H, 15 HR, and a 5.59 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 9:10 K:BB in 18 IP over 3 GS(1G) with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 5.50 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter; May: Glendon Rusch, LH Starter; June: Ben Sheets, RH Starter; July: Ruben Quevedo, RH Starter.

Montreal: Jim Brower, RH Reliever
3-2 on 53:30 K:BB in 78.1 IP over 51 G with 75 H, 7 HR, and a 4.48 ERA.

He certainly wasn't worth dealing Bruce Chen, especially since he held a 3.89 ERA on 24:10 K:BB in 39.1 IP with 38 H and only 2 homers allowed while with Cincinnati, and now any Expos' "coaching" hasn't prevented noticeable skill deterioration. His only improvement continues a career-long trend, as after posting a .82 G-F in 1999, he managed a 1.32 in 2000, followed by a 1.40 last year, a 1.61 with Cincy, and now a 2.10 G-F with Montreal. That development suggests his homer rate should decrease, and if he can just limit his walks, he could be an intriguing end-game pick next year. Unfortunately you should probably deal or cut him for now even if you also like his upside.

August Underachiever: Scott Stewart, LH Short Reliever
Old stats: 16 Saves on 57:18 K:BB in 52 IP over 55 G with 39 H, 2 HR, and a 2.94 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1 Save on 3:3 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 5.68 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Britt Reames, RH Reliever; May: Javier Vazquez, RH Starter; June: Matt Herges, RH Reliever; July: Tony Armas, Jr., RH Starter.

New York Mets: Satoru Komiyama, RH Starter
0-3 on 33:12 K:BB in 43.1 IP over 25 G with 53 H, 7 HR, and a 5.61 ERA.

Given Komiyama's reputation as a soft-tossing extreme control pitcher in Japan, a 6.9 K/9 is somewhat promising, as is his 2.8 K:BB. A .97 G-F and 1.5 HR/9 aren't too impressive, but the porous Mets' defense hasn't helped limit his hits allowed. He clearly dominated at AAA Norfolk when New York demoted him for a couple months, posting a 1.42 ERA on 43:9 K:BB in 44.1 IP with 27 H and 4 HR. While the 37-year-old obviously isn't a prospect, he could make a positive contribution for a year or two, although his role uncertainty means you should deal or cut him.

August Underachiever: Al Leiter, LH Starter
Old stats: 10-10 on 135:52 K:BB in 162 IP over 26 GS with 149 H, 17 HR, and a 3.39 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 29:12 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 2.70 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Kane Davis, RH Reliever; May: Shawn Estes, LH Starter; June: Jeff D'Amico, RH Starter; July: Scott Strickland, RH Reliever.

Philadelphia: Dan Plesac, LH Reliever
3-3 on 40:17 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 56 G with 26 H, 5 HR, and a 3.89 ERA.

I'm still stunned that GM Ed Wade chose to keep Plesac as a veteran influence instead of trading him for a couple of solid prospects, when Wade knew that the prospective free agent plans to retire. No "veteran presence" is worth sacrificing potential young talent, and if Larry Bowa and Vern Ruhle can't properly guide the current young Philly pitchers, then Wade needs to clean house this winter. Fortunately Plesac likely could continue pitching for another couple of years as only a career-worst .82 G-F indicates any severe skill degradation, and he's even not much below his .98 career norm. Since should only pitch another inning or two this year, he's among the safest players to acquire if you need short-term roster filler for 2002.

August Underachiever: Terry Adams, RH Swingman
Old stats: 4-8 on 79:54 K:BB in 118.1 IP over 32 G(19GS) with 122 H, 8 HR, and a 4.87 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 12:3 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 10 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a .73 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Randy Wolf, LH Starter; May: Brandon Duckworth, RH Starter; June: Rheal Cormier, LH Reliever; July: Robert Person, RH Starter.

Pittsburgh: Brian Meadows, RH Starter
1-6 on 28:12 K:BB in 57.2 IP over 10 GS with 56 H, 5 HR, and a 3.75 ERA.

He's made 10 starts in each of the last two years, but all his skills appear much better this year, suggesting he may continue developing into a respectable innings-eater. Florida rushed Meadows to the majors in 1998, and he pitched terribly for three straight seasons, somehow staying in the majors for an average of over 180 innings a year. Now he's pitching so good he deserves more than one lonely win, but he won't win many more if the Pirates' offense keeps providing only a meager 2.7 runs per game of support, the lowest level among current Pittsburgh starters. He's also compiled an intriguing PQS log of 3404334034, indicating that he'll never dominate hitters with his weak strikeout rate, but he might deserve a longer look. While I don't view him as a keeper, you can safely wait if you need pitching help this year.

August Underachiever: Scott Sauerbeck, LH Reliever
Old stats: 3-1 on 58:22 K:BB in 49.2 IP over 61 G with 40 H, 3 HR, and a 2.36 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 8:3 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 11 G with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 1.86 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever; May: Ron Villone, LH Swingman; June: Kris Benson, RH Starter; July: Josias Manzanillo, RH Reliever.

San Diego: Adam Eaton, RH Starter
1-1 on 13:15 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 4 GS with 19 H, 4 HR, and a 7.91 ERA.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery over a year ago, Eaton appears on track to return to his former level of effectiveness by next spring. I'm slightly concerned as his G-F dropped from 1.31 in 2000 to .98 last year and currently rests at .65, suggesting his 1.9 HR/9 isn't a direct result of his injury and subsequent rehab. Fortunately a 0035 PQS log indicates positive development even though contenders should deal or reserve him. I like the 24-year-old's long-term potential but I don't expect him to reach double-digit value until 2004 at the earliest.

August Underachiever: Brian Lawrence, RH Starter
Old stats: 11-7 on 124:41 K:BB in 176.2 IP over 26 GS(27G) with 183 H, 12 HR, and a 3.36 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-4 on 24:10 K:BB in 29 IP over 5 GS with 43 H, 3 HR, and a 5.59 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter; May: Jason Middlebrook, RH Swingman; June: Jeremy Fikac, RH Reliever; July: Tom Davey, RH Reliever.

San Francisco: Robb Nen, RH Reliever
39 Saves on 74:20 K:BB in 69.2 IP over 64 G with 61 H, 2 HR, and a 2.33 ERA.

While Nen should reach 40 saves for the third-straight year and has accumulate 35 or more saves in each of the last seven years, he's also averaged almost seven blown saves a year. As his dominance has slipped this year, he's compensated with a 1.32 G-F, his best mark in five seasons, as well as a correspondingly excellent .3 homer rate. I'm not sure if he deserves his reputation as an elite closer, but he fortunately remains a fantastic roto asset for any team. Acquire Nen if you need bullpen help.

August Underachiever: Livan Hernandez, RH Starter
Old stats: 8-13 on 109:60 K:BB in 173.1 IP over 26 GS with 193 H, 16 HR, and a 4.21 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 3-2 on 22:9 K:BB in 31.1 IP over 5 GS with 33 H, 3 HR, and a 5.46 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever; May: Jason Schmidt, RH Starter; June: Felix Rodriguez, RH Reliever; July: Russ Ortiz, RH Starter.

St. Louis: Woody Williams, RH Starter
9-4 on 73:23 K:BB in 98.2 IP over 16 GS with 78 H, 9 HR, and a 2.37 ERA.

He's missed nearly half the season with a strained left oblique, when he might have contended for Cy Young votes if he'd stayed healthy. Williams is holding career bests since his move to starting of a 2.8 K:BB, 6.7 K/9, 7.1 H/9, and .8 HR/9, along with a 1.01 G-F only slightly under his previous best of 1.02 G-F from 2000. I'm even more impressed with his PQS scores as he's dominated in 75% of his starts and only allowed two disasters. As he might even win his last two games, Williams is a great pitcher to acquire for both contenders and rebuilding teams.

August Underachiever: Andy Benes, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-3 on 42:30 K:BB in 53.1 IP over 10 GS(11G) with 41 H, 7 HR, and a 3.54 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 16:16 K:BB in 31.2 IP over 5 GS with 32 H, 3 HR, and a 2.56 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Bud Smith, LH Starter; May: Garrett Stephenson, RH Starter; June: Steve Kline, LH Reliever; July: Travis Smith, RH Starter.

Internet Challenge

We're out of buys after purchasing Vernon Wells.

SP(6)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@BAL(Ponson)
Curt Schilling: Fri:@COL(R.Flores)
Roger Clemens: Fri:@DET(A.Van Hekken)
Matt Morris: Sat:HOU(W.Miller)
Javier Vazquez: Sat:@NYM(Astacio)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road games at San Diego.

No starts: Randy, Mussina, Zito, Wood, Oswalt, and Halladay.

Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road games at Colorado.
Mike Williams: 3 Home games vs. Chicago Cubs.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Road games at Chicago White Sox.
Jorge Julio: 3 Home games vs. Boston.
Scott Stewart: 3 Road games at New York Mets.

Kim sits in Colorado, so the only question is do we deploy Schilling in Colorado or run a non-starting Halladay to save cap room and potential qualitative damage.

We can set most of our offense fairly easily before running into cap problems. Larry Walker and Juan Pierre sit since we don't know how much they'll play, and Ichiro remains mired in a deep slump. Neither Konerko or Jason Giambi appears a particularly good play, so since we're committed to running all five of our most expensive offensive players, we'll continue our normal course of action by sitting all Coors' pitchers.

Our problem with our last decision is that Rollins, Hunter, and Dunn are all in dreadful slumps, and they're each likely to hurt us more than help. At least we don't miss Drew since he's performing worse than the players we still retain. Considering that Rollins is displaying solid plate discipline and even some power, we'll gamble on him instead of Dunn or the injured Hunter.

The Umpire Hunter(2nd lg; 19th overall)
Week 25b: September 20-September 22

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Todd Helton		1980
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Nomar Garciaparra	1120
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Vlad Guerrero		1880
OF	Barry Bonds		1830
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Daryle Ward		620
OF	Vernon Wells		440
DH	Jimmy Rollins		940
DH	Juan Uribe		500

SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Roger Clemens		1240
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Roy Halladay		490
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750
RP	Scott Stewart		490

Today's Fantasy Rx: The success of Gagne and Smoltz will open more possibilities for former starters to move right into the closing role. Add potential keepers based almost entirely on skill, and don't worry if a starter faces significant competition considering he might find more success in the pen.