Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.

Arizona: David Dellucci, OF
51/206 for .248/.333/.413 with 7 HR, 28 RBI, 33 R, 2/6 SB%, and 27:45 BB:K.

Dellucci's value remains low since he's never posted a G-F below 1.77, limiting his power potential and keeping him from a full-time job. He's finally holding a respectable .13 walk rate, but a .60 BB:K and .78 contact rate aren't sufficient marks to compensate for his lack of tools. His .394 BA from 1999 is well over 100 points higher than we likely can expect in the future, and while he's hit .308 over the past three weeks, he won't secure a starting job in the foreseeable future. You can wait now, although he shouldn't help rebuilding teams.

August Underachiever: Luis Gonzalez, OF
Old stats: 125/426 for .293/.400/.519 with 24 HR, 87 RBI, 76 R, 7/8 SB%, and 77:57 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 19/76 for .250 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R, 1/2 SB%, and 19:15 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Grace, 1B; Tony Womack, SS; June: Craig Counsell, IF; July: Matt Williams, 3B.

Atlanta: Rafael Furcal, SS
165/602 for .274/.323/.379 with 6 HR, 44 RBI, 89 R, 24/39 SB%, and 41:104 BB:K.

A .323 OBP is terrible for any leadoff hitter, and since he's only managing a 62% success rate on the basepaths, Furcal's contributed very little to their offense this year. Although he remains a valuable roto asset due to his two-dozen steals, look to deal him to someone with more faith in his abilities as he's shown no relevant skill development in the past two years.

August Underachiever: Chipper Jones, OF
Old stats: 138/428 for .322/.431/.521 with 19 HR, 79 RBI, 74 R, 8/9 SB%, and 83:72 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 23/76 for .303 with 5 HR, 11 RBI, 11 R, 0/0 SB%, and 22:14 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Javy Lopez, C; May: Gary Sheffield, OF; June: Keith Lockhart, 2B; July: Marcus Giles, 2B.

Chicago Cubs: Chris Stynes, IF
45/187 for .241/.316/.380 with 5 HR, 25 RBI, 25 R, 1/2 SB%, and 21:27 BB:K.

The simultaneous development of Bobby Hill and Mark Bellhorn left little infield playing time for Stynes, as both Cubs' managers played him primarily against lefties and used either one of the switch-hitters or the left-handed Delino DeShields against right-handed pitchers. At least his skills improved in this limited role, as his .78 BB:K and .11 walk rate are his best marks since 1999 and his .87 G-F is easily the best mark since his rookie season in 1995. His 3.81 #P/PA is even a career-best, so though we expect him to remain in this reduced role off the bench, he should be able to improve on this power output while increasing his average. Unfortunately, respectable production in limited at-bats barely keeps his roto value above $0, so only wait on him now if you can't find a superior replacement.

August Underachiever: Roosevelt Brown, OF
Old stats: 29/144 for .201/.270/.306 with 2 HR, 19 RBI, 10 R, 2/4 SB%, and 11:36 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 7/39 for .179 with 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 R, 0/0 SB%, and 5:11 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Fred McGriff, 1B; May: Moises Alou, OF; June: Bill Mueller, 3B; July: Todd Hundley, C.

Cincinnati: Russ Branyan, 3B/OF
76/347 for .219/.313/.432 with 20 HR, 47 RBI, 46 R, 3/6 SB%, and 47:136 BB:K.

While setting new career highs of a .35 BB:K, .14 walk rate, .61 contact rate, and 4.16 #P/PA suggests the 26-year-old continues to develop, a .82 G-F is almost 40% higher than his previous career-worst mark of .59 G-F. Branyan is only worth a few bucks with a sub-.220 BA and these marginal power numbers, and Cincinnati doesn't appear prepared to give him consistent playing time. He'll certainly hit 30 or more homers in some year in the near future, but we neither know the league, team, or position where he'll play when he reaches that milestone, especially since his currently limited at-bats keep him at around 20 homers at best. You can use him if you need the power, although explore any available deal for someone on a team with less competition for lineup spots.

August Underachiever: Sean Casey, 1B
Old stats: 103/365 for .271/.347/.381 with 6 HR, 41 RBI, 51 R, 2/3 SB%, and 40:38 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 8/60 for .133 with 0 HR, 1 RBI, 5 R, 0/0 SB%, and 3:9 BB:K before hitting the DL due to an arm that needed extensive surgery.

Previous Underachievers: April: Adam Dunn, OF; May: Aaron Boone, 3B; June: Todd Walker, 2B; July: Ken Griffey, Jr., OF.

Colorado: Todd Zeile, 3B
126/471 for .268/.352/.420 with 17 HR, 79 RBI, 57 R, 0/0 SB%, and 64:86 BB:K.

In 2000 he hit .268, followed that up with a .266, and now holds a .268 BA despite moving from Shea to Coors; Zeile apparently didn't notice his trade to the Rockies. His skills depict an intriguing batting trend as his 4.32 #P/PA is a career-best while a 1.83 G-F is much worse than even the 1.47 G-F he posted back in 1991. The combination of greater plate patience and a growing groundball tendency kept his power numbers at their normal level, but a .74 BB:K and .14 walk rate are both near Zeile's career levels. I'd expect his BA should rise, although since I don't anticipate him back in Colorado next year, you should probably deal him now before his value plummets.

August Underachiever: Todd Helton, 1B
Old stats: 143/430 for .333/.427/.572 with 20 HR, 85 RBI, 77 R, 5/5 SB%, and 75:70 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 27/84 for .321 with 8 HR, 14 RBI, 22 R, 0/1 SB%, and 17:20 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Ortiz, 2B; May: Todd Hollandsworth, OF; June: Juan Uribe, SS; July: Juan Pierre, OF.

Florida: Ramon Castro, C
19/76 for .250/.333/.500 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 9 R, 0/0 SB%, and 11:19 BB:K.

The only untested youngster on the Marlins spent most of the season rotting on Jeff Torborg's bench as a nearly unused third catcher. Castro posted the fourth best OPS on the team despite his limited playing time, establishing his credentials as both a solid backup and potential starting stud. He only turns 26 next March, and a .14 walk rate, 3.95 #P/PA, and .64 G-F suggest impressive power upside. Only a rather weak .75 contact rate limits his value, although I doubt anyone will mind this .250 BA considering the levels he could reach in homers and RBI. We continue recommending you acquire Castro, especially if rebuilding since he deserves to start somewhere.

August Underachiever: Preston Wilson, OF
Old stats: 103/419 for .246/.338/.437 with 19 HR, 52 RBI, 71 R, 19/29 SB%, and 50:118 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 18/81 for .222 with 3 HR, 10 RBI, 8 R, 1/2 SB%, and 6:21 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Kevin Millar, OF; May: Charles Johnson, C; June: Cliff Floyd, OF; July: Derrek Lee, 1B.

Houston: Jeff Bagwell, 1B
154/527 for .292/.405/.531 with 30 HR, 94 RBI, 90 R, 6/8 SB%, and 96:122 BB:K.

The second half of Houston's lineup provided very little power this season and Bagwell's problems in recovering from surgery last October to repair a partially torn labrum and remove several loose bone fragments have left him with his worst quantitative numbers in years. He's also posting his worst OPS since 1995, and his current skills show deterioration from the marks he managed before his shoulder troubles began last year. Bagwell seems more likely to compile respectable .290/30/100 seasons instead of the .300/40/120 campaigns we've grown to expect. Even his speed appears mostly gone, so while the 34-year-old remains a great player, he's no longer a top fantasy asset, and given his injury troubles, we'd explore a deal if rebuilding.

August Underachiever: Richard Hidalgo, OF
Old stats: 88/381 for .231/.316/.412 with 15 HR, 46 RBI, 53 R, 6/8 SB%, and 42:85 BB:K.
Recommendation: rebuilding teams should look to acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 3/7 for .429 with 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0/0 SB%, and 1:0 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Morgan Ensberg, 3B; May: Craig Biggio, 2B; June: Gregg Zaun, C; July: Daryle Ward, OF.

Los Angeles: Chad Kreuter, C
25/94 for .266/.336/.383 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 8 R, 1/1 SB%, and 10:31 BB:K.

Kreuter's posting his best BA since 1993 in the least at-bats he's seen since 1996, however the 38-year-old's plate discipline has vanished this season. The combination of his reduced playing time and therefore diminished quantitative category help has left Kreuter as a borderline $1 catcher, unlikely to aid your team in any way other than occupying a roster spot cheaply, allowing you to upgrade elsewhere. Even if he doesn't retire, I don't expect his value to rebound, so deal or cut him, especially if you can replace him with someone like Ramon Castro.

August Underachiever: Paul Lo Duca, C
Old stats: 126/441 for .286/.334/.401 with 7 HR, 48 RBI, 49 R, 3/4 SB%, and 27:20 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 24/93 for .258 with 2 HR, 12 RBI, 17 R, 0/0 SB%, and 2:6 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Shawn Green; May: Adrian Beltre, 3B; June: Cesar Izturis, SS; July: Brian Jordan, OF.

Milwaukee: Paul Bako, C
51/219 for .233/.297/.329 with 4 HR, 19 RBI, 23 R, 0/1 SB%, and 20:43 BB:K.

We expected him to establish himself as the Brewers' primary catcher following Raul Casanova's injury but the acquisitions of Robert Machado and Jorge Fabregas left Bako fighting even to maintain his playing time. His skills also declined this year as his .09 walk rate is his worst mark since 1998 and a 1.71 G-F indicates no improvement in his power potential. While he should spend a few more years in a backup role, nothing in his stats suggests a player I'd want on my roster, so deal or cut him if you suspected he'd return to his .255+ BA of the late-90's at some point.

August Underachiever: Matt Stairs, OF
Old stats: 42/174 for .241/.332/.471 with 10 HR, 28 RBI, 23 R, 2/2 SB%, and 19:28 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 15/61 for .246 with 4 HR, 8 RBI, 12 R, 0/0 SB%, and 9:14 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Raul Casanova, C; May: Eric Young, 2B; June: Ron Belliard, IF; July: Jeffrey Hammonds, OF.

Montreal: Wilton Guerrero, UT
27/126 for .214/.250/.246 with 0 HR, 5 RBI, 10 R, 7/8 SB%, and 6:30 BB:K.

The reunion with Vlad hasn't boosted Wilton's numbers, and he'll be lucky to remain in the majors after his performance this season. His playing time has roughly dropped by half since 2000, and while he remains a relatively competent basestealer, his new BA troubles largely negate the SB help. A .76 contact rate is responsible for the drop in BA as he never dropped below a .84 contact rate before this season. With a 2.22 G-F indicating limited power development and a 2.89 #P/PA indicating the worst plate patience of his career, you can deal or cut Wilton at your convenience unless absolutely desperate for steals.

August Underachiever: Brad Wilkerson, OF
Old stats: 102/378 for .270/.370/.466 with 15 HR, 42 RBI, 69 R, 4/9 SB%, and 58:115 BB:K.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 25/95 for .263 with 4 HR, 13 RBI, 17 R, 2/3 SB%, and 15:32 BB:K

Previous Underachievers: April: Orlando Cabrera, SS; May: Lee Stevens, 1B; June: Orlando Cabrera, SS; July: Fernando Tatis, 3B.

New York Mets: Mike Piazza, C
124/442 for .281/.359/.545 with 30 HR, 91 RBI, 66 R, 0/3 SB%, and 53:72 BB:K.

While his power numbers have steadily dropped for the last four years, he's likely to finish with an average below .300 for the first time since his 69 AB debut season in 1992. A 3.81 #P/PA indicates he's seeing more pitches than in any previous season, but I see no development in any other facet of his offensive ability. Piazza should remain a consistent top performer as long as he continues catching, although his reputation may exceed his current value, so at least explore a deal in most leagues.

August Underachiever: Roger Cedeno, OF
Old stats: 102/395 for .258/.312/.344 with 5 HR, 31 RBI, 47 R, 15/19 SB%, and 30:77 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 20/74 for .270 with 2 HR, 9 RBI, 12 R, 7/7 SB%, and 8:13 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jay Payton, OF; May: Roberto Alomar, 2B; June: Mo Vaughn, 1B; July: Jeromy Burnitz, OF.

Philadelphia: Dave Hollins, 1B
2/14 for .143/.200/.143 with 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R, 0/1 SB%, and 0:3 BB:K.

In case anyone's unfamiliar with Hollins' situation, Philadelphia keeps him rostered as the last player in the organization that played for their 1993 pennant winner. He missed the first five months of the season after a spider bit him in Spring Training, infecting his left knee and eventually leaving him on an extended minor league rehab assignment until roster expansion. Now he simply doesn't fit with this team, and I'll be surprised if this 36-year-old returns for another season with the Phillies, so deal or cut him at your first opportunity.

August Underachiever: Jimmy Rollins, SS
Old stats: 122/488 for .250/.308/.391 with 9 HR, 44 RBI, 60 R, 22/33 SB%, and 39:79 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 25/109 for .229 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 19 R, 3/6 SB%, and 12:17 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Travis Lee, 1B; May: Mike Lieberthal, C; June: Doug Glanville, OF; July: Bobby Abreu, OF.

Pittsburgh: Armando Rios, OF
44/183 for .240/.296/.306 with 1 HR, 19 RBI, 19 R, 0/1 SB%, and 14:39 BB:K.

He's suffered from horrible luck after Pittsburgh acquired him for Jason Schmidt, first tearing the ACL in his left knee in his second game with the Pirates, and then missing a dozen weeks this year with bruising and swelling in that knee, followed by a strained right calf. Pittsburgh's now not even playing him even though they could desperately use someone with Rios' power potential in the lineup; he owned a .499 pre-2002 career SLG, and only Giles exceeds that level among 2002 Pirates. I admit that his walk rate and plate discipline are down, but his .86 G-F is the best mark of his career. Rios offers significant offensive upside for his 2003 owners in both the majors and fantasy baseball, so certainly look to acquire him if rebuilding.

August Underachiever: Kevin Young, 1B
Old stats: 94/377 for .249/.328/.419 with 14 HR, 40 RBI, 53 R, 3/9 SB%, and 43:86 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 11/60 for .183 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, 1/1 SB%, and 4:10 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Kendall, C; May: Adrian Brown, OF; June: Aramis Ramirez, 3B; July: Pokey Reese, 2B.

San Diego: Gene Kingsale, OF
57/189 for .302/.364/.407 with 2 HR, 25 RBI, 24 R, 8/9 SB%, and 16:41 BB:K.

Though I expect the Padres to move Bubba Trammell before next season, they'll likely accept another expensive outfielder's contract in return; I'd personally like to see them swap Trammell and Kevin Jarvis to the Mets for Jeromy Burnitz and the difference in cash. Either Burnitz or another off-season acquisition should patrol right field and Mark Kotsay returns in center, leaving Brian Buchanan, likely free agent re-signee Ron Gant, Xavier Nady, and Kingsale to compete for the left field job. San Diego management reportedly really likes Kingsale, believing that the switch-hitting 26-year-old demonstrates some of the best tools in the game. Unfortunately, given both his performance history and 2002 skills, even an OPS around .750 seems too high for him to maintain, leaving his great speed as his primary roto asset. His playing time and SB upside make him a decent target to acquire even as you should recognize he's unlikely to reach double-digit value in 2003.

August Underachiever: Phil Nevin, 3B
Old stats: 77/282 for .273/.329/.433 with 11 HR, 42 RBI, 36 R, 2/2 SB%, and 24:58 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 26/91 for .286 with 1 HR, 12 RBI, 14 R, 1/1 SB%, and 11:21 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Vazquez, SS; May: Bubba Trammell, OF; June: Ray Lankford, OF; July: Wiki Gonzalez, C.

San Francisco: Pedro Feliz, 3B
35/138 for .254/.283/.326 with 2 HR, 13 RBI, 13 R, 0/0 SB%, and 6:25 BB:K.

I remain convinced in the potential of a Damon Minor/Feliz platoon at either San Francisco corner, although the actual implementation of any such strategy in the foreseeable future would shock me. Feliz even regressed from his already poor .637 2001 OPS, so while the 25-year-old's minor league numbers suggest largely surprising power upside, his major league skills don't appear to support that potential. He's an extremely high-risk pick that I'd only recommend to rebuilding teams looking for any available power, and most owners should look to deal or cut him in favor of someone more likely to find extended playing time.

August Underachiever: Barry Bonds, OF
Old stats: 107/298 for .359/.572/.792 with 34 HR, 76 RBI, 85 R, 5/7 SB%, and 144:38 BB:K.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 33/78 for .423 with 10 HR, 27 RBI, 24 R, 3/5 SB%, and 35:4 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Kent, 2B and Lost Son of Evil Knievel; May: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, OF; June: J.T. Snow, 1B; July: Rich Aurilia, SS.

St. Louis: Kerry Robinson, OF
43/167 for .257/.302/.365 with 1 HR, 15 RBI, 24 R, 7/11 SB%, and 11:24 BB:K.

La Russa's underutilization left a couple of our NL teams about a dozen steals short of our expected goals. Eli Marrero largely stole the playing time boost we expected for Robinson, although Marrero's production certainly justifies the expanded role. While Robinson's at least displaying slightly more patience this season at a 3.56 #P/PA, the regression of most of his other skills doesn't indicate a jump in his roto value any time soon. You can wait if you need another couple of steals in 2002, but don't view him as a keeper regardless of salary.

August Underachiever: Scott Rolen, 3B
Old stats: 115/440 for .261/.362/.475 with 19 HR, 80 RBI, 63 R, 7/10 SB%, and 61:74 BB:K.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 27/103 for .262 with 5 HR, 17 RBI, 15 R, 1/1 SB%, and 8:20 BB:K.

Previous Underachievers: April: Tino Martinez, 1B; May: Placido Polanco, IF; June: Edgar Rentera, SS; July: J.D. Drew, OF.

Today's Fantasy Rx: As we couldn't find the Bill James' "Page-a-day" calendar for this year, we wound up with "This Day in Baseball". There's no reason I should spend the time to accurately describe the daily disappointment this block of notepaper issues us, so I'll just post today's inanity: "1996 - Whoever said that Colorado's Coors Field was a "hitter's park" forgot to tell Los Angeles Dodger right-hander Hideo Nomo, as he tosses as no-hitter in the Dodgers' 9-0 victory over the Colorado Rockies." Now I agree that Nomo's no-hitter ranks as an impressive moment, but this writing is simply awful - what connection does Coors' status as a hitter's park have with a single extraordinary performance? Many of the daily comments are some variation of "Mark McGwire hit a home run on this day in 1998", and unlike most baseball note calendars of the past, this is a true "rip-off" calendar. I certainly recommend you avoid the daily calendar "This Day in Baseball", published by cedco.com.

We're also rather upset at Gary Larson's decision to stop collecting all the royalties from his daily calendars. We don't care if we've seen every cartoon he's published; we'll be happy to see one every day into the foreseeable future, so if anyone reading this knows Gary, please beg him on our behalf to print more "page-a-day" calendars as soon as possible.