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September
9th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
AL Roto Batting Prospects, September 2002
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm going to spend a few days looking at potential fantasy help that spent most of this season in the upper levels of the minors so you can know who to monitor for potential FAABing.

I'll concentrate on players either already promoted or likely to see time in the majors before the end of the season due to 40-man roster concerns.

We'll begin today with American League batting prospects.


Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.


Anaheim: Robb Quinlan, 25, 1B/OF-R
.333/.376/.555 in 528 AB with 20 HR, 112 RBI, 95 R, 8/10 SB%, and 41:93 BB:K at AAA Salt Lake City(PCL).

While not currently on the Angels' 40-man roster, he deserves a call-up and at least a chance to platoon next year in Anaheim. He'd otherwise certainly be taken in the Rule 5 Draft if not protected, so there's no reason not to purchase his contract as soon as the PCL playoffs end. His plate discipline continues to fall, now slipping under .50 BB:K and a .10 walk rate for the first time. However his great BA kept his OBP near his .385 career average and a tremendous overall power display, including 31 doubles, 13 triples, and 20 homers, boosted his SLG to .555, nicely above his .466 norm. Quinlan appears capable at both first and in the outfield, and his power potential makes him a very attractive FAAB target, especially for rebuilding teams.

Previous prospects: May: Jeff Guiel; June: Mike O'Keefe; July: Chone Figgins; August: Alfredo Amezaga.


Baltimore: Ed Rogers, 24, SS-R
.261/300/.410 in 422 AB with 11 HR, 57 RBI, 59 R, 14/18 SB%, and 16:70 BB:K at AA Bowie(EL).

Anyone who follows the frequent Friday chats at Baseball America knows that discussing Rogers doesn't give him credibility as a prospect. Both Ed and his younger brother Omar, also an Orioles' prospect, gained three years in agegate during the off-season. Now Rogers' upside diminishes to practically nothing, and his 20 errors in 111 games and awful .23 BB:K should keep him from ever securing a starting job. Baltimore manager Mike Hargrove commented that "Eddie was swinging the bat well at Bowie and we felt like we wanted to see him up here." Now if Hargrove means that they wanted to determine if Rogers deserved a 40-man spot this winter, then promoting him isn't a terrible idea, as long as they realize that four awful, mostly skill-less years in the minors indicates he's not major league material. Ignore Rogers even if you're a diehard Orioles' fan, since he just doesn't possess enough talent to deserve a regular job on any big league team.

Previous prospects: May: Brian Roberts; June: Larry Bigbie; July: Howie Clark; August: Tim Raines, Jr.


Boston: Shane Andrews, 31, CR-R
.256/.346/.479 in 390 AB with 22 HR, 63 RBI, 61 R, 1/2 SB%, and 52:123 BB:K at AAA Pawtucket(IL)

A respectable AAA season earned Andrews a call-up for the first time in two seasons, although his skills haven't changed since his days of starting in Olympic Stadium and Wrigley Field. He's capable of holding a .450+ SLG in the majors with about a .300 OBP and a batting average barely above the Mendoza Line. So while his overall potential is negligible, he'd fit comfortably on a team that needs a right-handed cornerman with good power. I don't expect him to start again except as an injury replacement, but if you can afford a BA hit, he's worth a small FAAB bid.

Previous prospects: May: Edgard Clemente; June: Todd Betts; July: Freddy Sanchez; August: Angel Santos.


Chicago White Sox: Aaron Miles, 25, 2B-S
322/.369/.450 in 531 AB with 9 HR, 68 RBI, 67 R, 25/41 SB%, and 40:45 BB:K .at AA Birmingham(SL).

After six years languishing at the bottom of the Houston system, he's spent the last two years showing signs of progress at AA Birmingham after the White Sox selected him in the 2000 Minor League Rule 5 Draft. We've seen him touted by the Chicago papers as a potential call-up once Birmingham concludes their playoff run, and he's probably worth a 40-man spot to determine his future with the franchise. Unfortunately the Sox have several solid middle infielders throughout the system with Jose Valentin as a very good veteran starter, D'Angelo Jimenez and Willie Harris impressing in the majors, and Tim Hummel and Chad Durham maturing in the upper minors. Miles, unproven above AA prior to 2002, is older than all these guys except Valentin, and while his .89 BB:K shows good plate discipline, a .08 walk rate is somewhat low even matched with a .92 contact rate. Twenty-six errors in 129 games at 2B won't help his case, and his .61 2002 SB% and 63% career SB rate demonstrate poor baseball instincts. He can probably develop into a respectable backup after a year or two at AAA, but as he's not ready for the majors, ignore him if promoted.

Previous prospects: May: Joe Crede; June: Willie Harris; July: Joe Borchard; August: Miguel Olivo.


Cleveland: Earl Snyder, 26, 1B/3B/OF-R
.263/.341/.483 in 400 AB with 19 HR, 66 RBI, 69 R, 0/2 SB%, and 43:96 BB:K at AAA Buffalo(IL).

Few people consider him even a decent prospect but he showed good power potential in the AFL, is capable of standing at a few different positions despite 19 errors in 107 games, and should spend a few years as a solid back-up on the edge of starting. He continues to post a respectable walk rate around .11, and should boost his SLG over .500 if given another month or two at AAA. The Indians likely will give him an extended chance to compete for the third base position that Travis Fryman's retirement leaves vacant, although he doesn't quite appear ready to produce in the majors. Consider a minimum FAAB bid if you have the roster space to gamble on him starting.

Previous prospects: May: Greg LaRocca; June: Ben Broussard; July: Jody Gerut; August: Victor Martinez.


Detroit: Omar Infante, 20, SS-R
.268/.309/.369 in 436 AB with 4 HR, 51 RBI, 49 R, 19/34 SB%, and 28:49 BB:K at AAA Toledo(IL).

Infante's primary competition at shortstop, Ramon Santiago, gained two years in agegate, leaving Infante twenty-eight months younger and possessing significantly greater upside. However Detroit advanced Infante much too quickly, rushing him through a mildly impressive season of A-ball before leaving him at AA Erie last season, where he hit an empty .302, which wasn't supported by a 46:87 BB:K. Now at AAA, the 26 errors in 120 games worry me less than the continued erosion of his plate discipline, and his horrible instincts on the bases don't advance his case. Even if his reportedly good range and excellent hands suggest he deserves a spot in the majors, he's not ready offensively, and a dozen or so steals won't compensate for a weak BA. Ignore Infante now and if left in the majors, but take another look next summer if the Tigers wisely give him another couple months at AAA.

Previous prospects: May: Eric Munson; June: Jorge Sequea; July: Cody Ross; August: Mike Rivera.


Kansas City: Dee Brown, 24, OF/DH-L
.275/.344/.441 in 458 AB with 17 HR, 75 RBI, 66 R, 10/14 SB%, and 44:111 at AAA Omaha(PCL).

While Brown is still relatively young and possesses good power potential, he's completely stagnated over the last two seasons. If given a starting job next spring without excellent off-season hitting instruction that concentrates on plate discipline, Brown likely will again fail, now running the risk of a AAAA label. He simply won't succeed in the majors due to his strikeouts unless he improves his walk rate, and Kansas City's almost complete inability to develop offensive prospects suggests he should hope for a trade. Only FAAB Brown if desperate for power.

Previous prospects: May: Aaron Guiel; June: Jed Hansen; July: Alexis Gomez; August: Kit Pellow.


Minnesota: Todd Sears, , 1B-L
.310/.388/.525 for 484 AB with 20 HR, 100 RBI, 88 R, 2/3 SB%, and 59:142 BB:K at AAA Edmonton(PCL).

Edmonton's run to the PCL championship series has kept many of the Twins' top minor leaguers in the minors. Once their season ends in about a week, Javier Valentin, Mike Restovich, and Todd Sears should all join Minnesota. With both David Ortiz and Doug Mientkiewicz eligible for arbitration, Sears stands a fantastic chance of emerging at least as a left-hander starter at 1B or DH. Only two members of their 40-man roster, Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills, don't deserve time in the majors this season, so I don't expect Sears to see more than maybe a half-dozen at-bats. However he's a great FAAB target for any rebuilding team, and seems capable of at least matching the double-digit production of the Twins' current 1B or DH.

Previous prospects: May: Javier Valentin; June: Mike Ryan; July: Michael Cuddyer; August: Mike Restovich.


New York Yankees: Drew Henson, 22, 3B-R
.240/.301/.435 in 471 AB with 18 HR, 65 RBI, 68 R, 2/3 SB%, and 37:151 BB:K at AAA Columbus(IL).

Anyone committing thirty-five errors in 125 games at third base would be publicly chastised in any other organization. The Yankees appear hesitant to discuss Henson's problems honestly due to the possibility of him bolting to the NFL despite signing a $17M/6-year contract that began last season. Between New York and his half-year in Cincinnati, Henson only received 289 at-bats in A-ball and 306 at AA, so he's now compiled 741 AAA at-bats without the proper skill foundation. Examining the situation from a different perspective, a normal top high school prospect of Henson's age, placed on a normal development schedule, would only reach AAA next season. So while Henson isn't the wunderkind which so many want to label him, he's still a top power prospect who can play third base adequately. The Yankees either will re-sign Ventura or acquire a comparable veteran to give Henson another year to develop, and only after next season will we know his true potential. Certainly FAAB Henson as long as you can leave him reserved, and if his current owner in your league has grown impatience, see if you can deal to add Henson to your minors as I'm growing to like his long-term upside.

Previous prospects: May: Billy McMillon; June: Marcus Thames; July: Andy Phillips; August: Scott Seabol.


Oakland: Jose Flores, 29, UT-R
.306/.397/.380 in 363 AB with 2 HR, 38 RBI, 64 R, 16/20 SB%, and 56:53 BB:K at AAA Sacramento(PCL).

Flores likely won't ever see much time starting in the majors due to fielding problems, including committing fifteen errors while splitting 95 games between SS, OF, 2B, and 3B. However he possesses excellent plate discipline, good speed, and can play a passable shortstop, so he should be an excellent candidate for a bench job somewhere next season. Oakland's relatively good depth won't allow much playing time for Flores now, so you should probably ignore him for 2002 purposes while remembering his name for next year's Dollar Days.

Previous prospects: May: Esteban German; June: Marshall McDougall; July: Larry Sutton; August: Luis Lopez.


Seattle: Scott Podsednik, 26, OF-L
.279/.347/.425 in 438 AB with 9 HR, 61 RBI, 63 R, 35/48 SB%, and 43:70 BB:K at AAA Tacoma(PCL).

Promoted essentially to fill Mark McLemore's role in the outfield rotation, Podsednik actually assembled marginally respectable ratios in AAA. He doesn't possess the power to emerge as more than a fourth outfielder, but his speed could be very valuable. He's an interesting target to FAAB if any steals would help, although he's not likely to see any time starting in the foreseeable future.

Previous prospects: May: Jermaine Clark; June: Blake Barthol; July: Jamal Strong; August: Willie Bloomquist.


Tampa Bay: Damian Rolls, 24, UT-R
.266/.332/.398 in 244 AB with 6 HR, 35 RBI, 41 R, 15/15 SB%, and 21:43 BB:K at AAA Durham(IL).

Rolls missed about two months with an unknown injury, and aside from his great stolen base success rate, I don't find any of his stats particularly impressive. Tampa's started him on a regular basis, likely to see if he deserves a 40-man roster spot this winter, but his skills haven't changed since his SB-laden roto debut early in 2001. He'll provide a few steals without any other meaningful contribution, so only commit a minimum amount of FAAB if desperate for those steals.

Previous prospects: May: Ryan Freel; June: Carl Crawford; July: Josh Pressley; August: Rocco Baldelli.


Texas: Mark Teixeira, 22, 3B-S
.318/.413/.591 in 321 AB with 19 HR, 70 RBI, 63 R, 5/7 SB%, and 46:60 BB:K between A+ Charlotte(FSL) and AA Tulsa(TL).

While his 21 errors in 85 games at third might eventually force him across the diamond, Texas will field a much stronger team if they can leave Texeiria at third base, move Blalock to second, and leave Travis Hafner at first. His major league contract means he needs to be up in 2005, but he seems on pace to earn a starting job by late next summer. Hopefully Texas will learn from Blalock's hurried development and leave Tex at AAA, although despite less than 175 at-bats at either A+ or AA, a 1.000+ OPS at each level indicates he deserves another promotion. These numbers are even more impressive when you consider he missed the first two months of the season with a ligament tear and hyperextended left elbow. While he may still need surgery in the off-season if the problem returns, he's easily one of the best hitting prospects in the game. FAAB him at your first opportunity because Texas will make room for him as soon as they believe he's ready.

Previous prospects: May: Travis Hafner; June: Jeff Pickler; July: Jason Hart; August: Ryan Ludwick.


Toronto: Kevin Cash, 24, C-R
.247/.338/.445 in 449 AB with 18 HR, 70 RBI, 65 R, 5/8 SB%, and 61:116 BB:K between AA Tennessee(SL) and AAA Syracuse(IL).

The shifts of Josh Phelps to 1B/DH and Jayson Werth to OF leave Cash as the Blue Jays' future starting catcher, but a .299 OBP at AAA suggests he needs another few months in the upper minors. His plate discipline decreased from a .82 BB:K and .17 walk rate at AA to .35 BB:K and .11 walk rate at AAA, so hopefully the apparent premature promotion won't stunt his long-term growth. I believe he owns more power than most scouts suggest due to this fairly respectable SLG, and he should earn double-digit value in 2004. Unfortunately since he isn't even succeeding at AAA, you should probably also ignore him this season.

Previous prospects: May: Orlando Hudson; June: Josh Phelps; July: Jimmy Alvarez; August: Jayson Werth.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Before FAABing players as potential keepers, make sure you're completely aware of all your league's keeper rules. There's no reason to FAAB a Henson or Teixeira if you have to release anyone not in the majors at the start of next season.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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