Today's Fantasy Rx

Twenty-five pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of a week ago. Barry Zito joined the list this week while no one departed, leaving us with twenty-six pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the sixteenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings, which include all games played through August 28th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(55545)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(45245)
abxy - Roy Halladay(54313)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

Clemens looks nicely recovered from his injury, and he should dominate most opponents down the stretch.

124
Chad Bradford

134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte

234
Keith Foulke

12
abcxyz - Barry Zito(45353)
bxy - Mark Mulder(33435)

Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

The AL West has a few pitchers consistently dominant over the last fifteen months. Zito and Mulder should both continue to win while compiling impressive qualitative numbers.

13
abxy - Tim Wakefield(42544)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(34435)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(35445)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(32045)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(42343)
x - Danys Baez(22335)

All these guys, including new Cleveland closer Danys Baez, appear locked-in and prepared to continue dominating.

Matt Ginter

24
cx - Paul Wilson(34332)

Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(32330)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(33224)
a - Johan Santana(54454)

Santana's resumed his place as one of the top young starters in baseball, and all he's missing is a little consistency to earn $20+ next year; aside from his four disasters, he's dominated in his other nine starts.

Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

2
ax - Victor Zambrano(52542)
bx - Joel Pineiro(23543)
xy - Freddy Garcia(32223)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(54344)
z - Kelvim Escobar

Zambrano is not the best target here, but he's likely the only one you can acquire cheaply who might just provide an extended boost. I'm also very pleased with Sabathia's recent stretch as he's finally returned to dominating hitters.

Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez

3
bxy - John Burkett(04032)
yz - Rick Reed(53455)
y - Andy Pettitte(43543)

Look to add Reed if you need low-risk innings with win potential.

Gary Glover(44140)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

4
ax - Derek Lowe(45233)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
xyz - Jamie Moyer(44245)
xy - Orlando Hernandez(30334)
x - John Stephens(55553)
y - Eric Milton(54555)

Buehrle and Lackey drop down as Rotohelp fave Stephens earns his first week up here, accompanying the rejuvenated Ducky. We're considering keeping Stephens at $10 in a ten-team 5x5, and obviously continue to strongly recommend him wherever available.

b
y - Cory Lidle(53453)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

c
x - Mark Redman(40534)
x - David Wells(03135)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

x
yz - Aaron Sele(25342)
yz - Ramon Ortiz(03152)
y - Paul Byrd(42444)
y - Jeff Weaver(44243)
y - Mark Buehrle(23453)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(23342)
z - Sidney Ponson(23444)
z - Frank Castillo(32400)
We're shocked (shocked!) to discover Byrd might not return to Kansas City since he didn't enjoy Royals' President Dan Glass' attendance at a fan protest. There're probably a few jokes available here about "people in _____ houses" but a dozen hours of Sportscenter reruns while waiting for Jayson Stark updates dulled my sense of humor.

John Lackey(55432)
Ismael Valdes(35342)
Joaquin Benoit(34053)
Casey Fossum(53340)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Runelvys Hernandez(23433)
Rodrigo Lopez(13343)
Shawn Sedlacek(20532)
Lackey settles here, although only he, Valdes, and maybe Runelvys and Lopez look safe to deploy at the moment. Fossum should be fine, but he's at least mildly risky after a disaster.

y
z - Brad Radke(54422)
z - Kenny Rogers(24341)
z - Todd Ritchie(03302)
z - Pat Hentgen

Jon Garland(54015)
Esteban Loiaza(34304)
Joe Mays(24402)
Dave Burba(43203)
Jeff Suppan(43121)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer(2)

Suppan is not someone who any halfway decent team should use right now given his terrible stretch since the Break, leaving only Radke as a low-risk play and Rogers, Garland, Loiaza, and Mays as riskier bets who at least might help with wins.

z
Jason Johnson(24533)
Jim Parque(2040)
Steve Parris(40010)
Blake Stein(02)

Johnson remains relatively solid, although please avoid deploying Parque and Parris under almost any circumstances.

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Juan Acevedo, Travis Driskill(54311), Travis Harper(0443), Oscar Henriquez, Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Lohse(32352), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(33131), Carl Sadler, Steve Sparks(53240), and Ben Weber. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Miguel Asencio(33124), James Baldwin(41500), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(00), Doug Creek, Scott Erickson(03000), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(30113), Dustin Hermanson(3), Danny Kolb, Jose Lima(02040), Mike Maroth(44233), Darrell May(30022), Justin Miller(30002), Aaron Myette(00333), Brian Powell(05003), Jay Powell, Dennys Reyes(01), Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Ricardo Rodriguez(24), Scot Shields, Mike Smith(00000), Jorge Sosa(00431), Jeff Tam, Anthony Telford, Pete Walker(43434), and Jake Westbrook(5400), Mark Wohlers, Danny Wright(40325), and Esteban Yan.

Today's Fantasy Rx: To continue some thoughts on closers from yesterday, teams that use guys like Danny Graves and Jose Jimenez as closers can drastically affect roto values. These pitchers only provide helpful qualitative numbers when lucky, and the absence of dramatic ERA and WHIP contributions lowers their value by as much as $10 from closers like Trevor Hoffman. If teams continue to move their best relievers to the high pressure middle innings in which they belong, the best closers may no longer earn $35-40 in value. Striving for closer keepers with single-digits salary becomes even more important as you can only concern yourself with the opportunity to close as long as they hold a respectable level that would keep them from a demotion.

I'll conclude this line of reasoning tomorrow by looking at the potential corresponding shift of value towards middle relievers.