Today's Fantasy Rx

Anaheim: Scot Shields, RH Reliever
3-3 on 17:13 K:BB in 30.2 IP over 20 G with 25 H, 4 HR, and a 2.94 ERA.

While Shields excelled at AAA Salt Lake, posting a superb 50:6 K:BB in 47 IP, he manages to lose nearly all his dominance and command upon reaching the majors. Last season in 11 IP, he only managed a 7:7 K:BB, and while his 1.3 K:BB is slightly better, his 5.0 K/9 is down from only that barely decent 5.7 K/9. At least Shields seems to be changing his pitching style, as his G-F ratio has fallen from .71 in 2001 to a solid 1.79 this year. Unfortunately his ERA just doesn't match his meager skills, and with Anaheim both falling apart due to injury and owning one of the toughest September schedules, now is a good time to deal or cut Shields to avoid likely qualitative damage.

July Overachiever: Ben Weber, RH Setup
Old stats: 5 Saves on 29:17 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 36 G with 39 H, 3 HR, and a 2.72 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 4:2 K:BB in 13 IP over 11 G with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 3.46 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Ramon Ortiz, RH Starter; May: Dennis Cook, LH Reliever; June: Lou Pote, RH Reliever.

Baltimore: Jorge Julio, RH Closer
25 Saves on 46:23 K:BB in 60.2 IP over 59 G with 48 H, 4 HR, and a 1.78 ERA.

Our ranking of Julio as the 5th best AL roto rookie looks quite good, and we only regret we didn't rank him higher considering the struggles of Pena, Blalock, or Johnson; only placing Hinske above Julio seems logical in retrospect. However no one expected this stunning ERA even after he posted 2001 MLE skills of 2.5 K:BB, 8.8 K/9, and .8 HR/9. Julio's 2002 skills are not overly superior to someone like Todd Jones, and I expect we'll see him overrated next spring by a variety of sources. Even a slight rise in his .6 homer rate, currently not supported by a .99 G-F, should boost his ERA over 2.00, and with the Orioles finishing the season against Anaheim, Texas, New York, Boston, and Toronto, he could easily allow three homers in another dozen innings of work. We still like his potential a lot, but you should at least listen to any offered deal if you could add a capable replacement while boosting your team elsewhere.

July Overachiever: Rodrigo Lopez, RH Starter
Old stats: 12-3 on 89:43 K:BB in 128.2 IP over 17 GS(22G) with 103 H, 14 HR, and a 3.01 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 20:7 K:BB in 32 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 3.66 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Scott Erickson, RH Starter; May: Willis Roberts, RH Reliever; June: Travis Driskill, RH Starter.

Boston: Ugueth Urbina, RH Closer
30 Saves on 50:18 K:BB in 47 IP over 48 G with 39 H, 6 HR, and a 3.45 ERA.

He's only reached 30 saves in two of his four previous seasons as a closer, and he's only managed an ERA below 3.65 once before this year. Both his save total and ERA are fairly solid given his career, and with a 2.8 K:BB and 9.6 K/9, he should keep closing with some team for a few more years. The one trouble spot here is an awful .52 G-F, significantly below his already weak .88 norm and suggestive of a pending rise in his 1.1 HR/9. Any noticeable September homer problems would likely send his ERA closer to 4.00, and with the Red Sox already showing some signs of weakness, I think he'll fade as the season winds down. Explore a deal if you need either a boost in saves or a better ERA/WHIP guarantee at the end of your bullpen.

July Overachiever: Pedro Martinez, RH Starter
Old stats: 14-2 on 178:30 K:BB in 145 IP over 22 GS with 102 H, 9 HR, and a 2.36 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 34:2 K:BB in 31 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 3 HR, and a 1.16 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Oliver, LH Starter; May: Rolando Arrojo, RH Swingman; June: Derek Lowe, RH Starter.

Chicago White Sox: Dan Wright, RH Starter
9-11 on 107:59 K:BB in 155 IP over 27 GS with 170 H, 27 HR, and a 5.69 ERA.

One of the biggest surprises of the season was the refusal of the White Sox to part with another pitching prospect or two for a second capable starter to support Buehrle. Acquiring Todd Ritchie was an unanticipated disaster, and while we normally support giving playing time to promising youngsters, Garland and Ritchie are barely decent innings' eaters right now. No contender can afford to start these three guys in addition to a parade of Gary Glover, Jim Parque, and Rocky Biddle, but at least Wright's showing signs of developing. His 1.8 K:BB, 6.2 K/9, and 9.9 H/9 are all approaching respectability, although a 1.10 G-F suggests we might continue to see a homer rate near his current 1.6 HR/9. Aside from the homers, he's also made great strides in the second half, posting a 2.5 K:BB and 7.8 K/9. While he could probably dominate in relief right now, the Sox's decision to keep him starting should give them a capable #3 starter for 2003, and he's only a good sinker away from double-digit roto value. Contenders still should probably deal or reserve him, although he offers intriguing possibilities for rebuilding teams.

July Overachiever: Damaso Marte, LH Setup
Old stats: 1-1 and 3 Saves on 45:14 K:BB in 40.1 IP over 49 G with 32 H, 4 HR, and a 3.57 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 and 3 Saves on 14:3 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 10 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a 1.74 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Gary Glover, RH Setup; May: Bobby Howry, RH Reliever; June: Mark Buehrle, LH Starter.

Cleveland: Jake Westbrook, RH Starter
1-3 on 20:12 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 4 GS(11G) with 50 H, 6 HR, and a 5.83 ERA.

His 4.38 ERA prior to giving up 8 ER in 2.2 IP against Seattle struck me as somewhat low, and he might coast over 6.00 given his terrible dominance and weak command. A 1.3 HR/9 is at least high given his very good 1.83 G-F, but as Westbrook's 10.8 H/9 is his best rate in parts of three seasons, the sheer number of balls in play will cause his homer rate to rise. Cleveland's deployment of the worst defense in the majors certainly doesn't help him, so unless he can increase his strikeout rate from 4.3 K/9 to at least the 6.7 he managed last year, he's likely not worth owning. Deal or cut him unless rebuilding and desperate for potential starters.

July Overachiever: Mark Wohlers, RH Short Reliever
Old stats: 2 Saves on 31:20 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 40 G with 50 H, 2 HR, and a 5.25 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 4 Saves on 7:1 K:BB in 10 IP over 10 G with 11 H, 3 HR, and a 7.20 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Shuey, RH Relief; May: Bartolo Colon, RH Starter; June: Ryan Drese, RH Starter.

Detroit: Oscar Henriquez, RH Reliever
1-0 on 21:12 K:BB in 24 IP over 26 G with 16 H, 3 HR, and a 3.38 ERA.

In slightly less innings with Florida back in 1998, Henriquez posted an 8.55 ERA. He was a top closing prospect who wound up waiver bait due to his weak start. And now Detroit's reaping the benefits of twenty-nine teams largely ignoring some fairly solid minor league performances in the last few years. Both his 1.8 K:BB and 1.1 HR/9 have fallen slightly off the pace he established earlier in the season, and unfortunately his homer rate should keep heading up given his .58 G-F. All that separates him from someone like Acevedo is a few years of replaceable major league performance, and a chance at closing for him over the next couple of seasons wouldn't surprise me. For now, as his qualitative numbers remain superior to what I'd expect from these stats, deal or cut Henriquez in favor of someone with more immediate promise.

July Overachiever: Julio Santana, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-3 on 33:27 K:BB in 50.1 IP over 33 G with 40 H, 7 HR, and a 2.50 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 5:1 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 5 G with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 5.40 ERA before hitting the DL with a partial ligament tear in his elbow.

Previous Overachievers: April: Steve Sparks, RH Starter; May: Juan Acevedo, RH Closer; June: Mike Maroth, LH Starter.

Kansas City: Runelvys Hernandez, RH Starter
3-3 on 30:14 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 7 GS with 42 H, 4 HR, and a 3.98 ERA.

Kansas City jumped Hernandez past A+ to AA at the beginning of the year, and then skipped him past AAA to start in the majors. His 2001 minor league numbers were quite good, and this year he's posted an 8-3 record on 86:24 K:BB in 106.1 IP over 14 GS(16G) with 96 H, 3 HR, and a 2.71 ERA. The 21-year-old may actually be able to continue his current pace, especially since a 1.71 G-F supports a .9 HR/9. He's holding a respectable 2.1 K:BB and 6.6 K/9, and one decent start could pull his 9.3 H/9 back down. The Royals aren't even abusing his arm as he's never exceed 7 IP or 109 pitches, and a 23434 current 5-start PQS log indicates building promise. Hernandez is one of the most promising youngsters in the entire KC system, and he's a fairly good target for anyone to acquire.

July Overachiever: Scott Mullen, LH Reliever
Old stats: 3-2 on 6:2 K:BB in 17 IP over 19 G with 17 H, 3 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 7:8 K:BB in 13.1 IP over 15 G with 12 H, 1 HR, and a 1.35 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Byrd, RH Starter; May: Jeremy Affeldt, LH Starter; June: Miguel Ascencio, RH Swingman.

Minnesota: Eddie Guardado, LH Closer
38 Saves on 59:13 K:BB in 58.1 IP over 58 G with 45 H, 6 HR, and a 2.62 ERA.

A league-leading save total should keep Guardado from losing the closer's role to the right-handed Jack Cressend, as I predicted in the pre-season. The lesson here is that a solid skills' set, if given the opportunity of a larger role, at least should triumph over unfounded pre-conceptions such as right-handers should close. A 9.1 K/9 is perfectly in line with his numbers over the past few seasons, although adding a career-best 4.5 K:BB helps. I remain concerned that his .71 G-F, even as his second-best G-F ratio in his career, will force his ERA back towards 3.00, especially since he's never finished below 3.51 on the season. As any trade involving Eddie will likely force an acquiring owner to overpay, unless you own him and can afford to lose a month of saves, just wait for him to cruise past 40 saves.

July Overachiever: Tony Fiore, RH Reliever
Old stats: 9-2 on 42:26 K:BB in 64.2 IP over 30 G(2GS) with 47 H, 6 HR, and a 3.20 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 6:7 K:BB in 24.1 IP over 9 G with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 0.74 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: J.C. Romero, LH Reliever; May: Mike Jackson, RH Aging Former Closer; June: LaTroy Hawkins, RH Reliever.

New York Yankees: Ramiro Mendoza, RH Reliever
8-3 and 4 Saves on 53:15 K:BB in 79 IP over 52 G with 85 H, 7 HR, and a 3.08 ERA.

While his skills aren't quite as impressive as past seasons despite him not starting a game this season for the first time in his seven-year major league career, he's managed to accumulate as much value as almost any non-closer in the league. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised since he's never posted less than 8 wins when healthy for a full season, and the Yankees' fantastic offense this year certainly helped him vulture some wins. A 2.29 G-F is his best mark since 1997, leaving only his 9.7 hit rate as even mildly troublesome. Mendoza's probably even unowned in some mixed leagues, and with the Yankees facing a somewhat easy September schedule, you should explore the available options to acquire him.

July Overachiever: Mike Stanton, LH Reliever
Old stats: 4-1 on 34:18 K:BB in 57 IP over 54 G with 54 H, 4 HR, and a 3.16 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-0 on 3:3 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 11 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Orlando Hernandez, RH Starter; May: Ted Lilly, LH Swingman; June: David Wells, LH Starter.

Oakland: Barry Zito, LH Starter
19-5 on 154:67 K:BB in 190.2 IP over 29 GS with 150 H, 21 HR, and a 2.83 ERA.

One of the primary problems in playing time forecasting is simply guessing wrong when accounting for likely injuries. I fully expected an Oakland starter to miss a month or two due to overwork, although I felt Zito was a more likely candidate than Mulder. We even traded him in one league for Andy Pettitte, a deal that probably kept us out of contention for first. Zito's assembled a fantastic season, one that likely leaves him third in a two-Red Sox race for the Cy Young. However his diminishing skills forecast another warning for 2003, as his 2.3 K:BB, 7.3 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, and .73 G-F are all below last year's marks. His ERA is only back below 3.00 due to Oakland cobbling together the third best AL defense, which has kept his hit rate around 7.1 H/9 most of the season. The Athletics should continue their roll into the playoffs, so don't move Zito if you need wins or generally helpful numbers, but after this wait I again recommend you trade him following the playoffs after the value boost of a 20-win season.

July Overachiever: Chad Bradford, RH Reliever
Old stats: 4-2 on 39:7 K:BB in 54.1 IP over 50 G with 44 H, 1 HR, and a 1.99 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 14:3 K:BB in 11 IP over 13 G with 11 H, 0 HR, and a 4.09 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Billy Koch, RH Closer; May: Mike Venafro, LH Reliever; June: Aaron Harang, RH Starter.

Seattle: Doug Creek, LH Reliever
2-2 on 49:25 K:BB in 48.2 IP over 41 G with 49 H, 9 HR, and a 5.92 ERA.

Since joining Seattle, he's posted a 4.77 ERA on excellent skills, including a 12:4 K:BB in 11.1 IP with 10 H and 1 HR, while bringing his G-F ratio to a career-best 1.31 in Seattle and 1.07 on the season. I expected his move to the Mariners would give him a short-term boost in value as long as he wasn't distracted by pitching across the country from his home; aside from the surprisingly high ERA, he's pitched quite well. Unfortunately he's never sustained this level of skill in any previous season, and we could see a frightening outing or two as he spends the last three weeks of the season exclusively against AL West rivals. Deal or cut Creek unless desperate for any potential vultured wins.

July Overachiever: Jamie Moyer, LH Starter
Old stats: 10-4 on 96:31 K:BB in 157.1 IP over 23 GS with 124 H, 19 HR, and a 2.86 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 26:7 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 5 GS with 34 H, 5 HR, and a 4.67 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, RH Reliever; May: Kazuhiro Sasaki, RH Closer; June: John Halama, LH Swingman.

Tampa Bay: Jorge Sosa, RH Rule 5 Pick
1-6 on 41:45 K:BB in 83.2 IP over 26 G(12GS) with 72 H, 16 HR, and a 5.44 ERA.

The Rays' general ineptness and specific incompetence in finding free talent each winter left them picking up other teams' Rule 5 castoffs, and now we're seeing rumors that Tampa might try him as their closer following the failure of several preferred choices. Only a 7.8 H/9 despite Tampa's league average defense appears even comparable to solid major leaguers, and his .9 K:BB, 4.5 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, and .66 G-F are simply awful. Only a completely IP-desperate owner should keep Sosa rostered while everyone else should deal or cut him.

July Overachiever: Joe Kennedy, LH Starter
Old stats: 6-8 on 89:34 K:BB in 139.1 IP over 21 GS with 149 H, 17 HR, and a 4.52 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 9:14 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 5 GS with 33 H, 1 HR, and a 3.48 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Paul Wilson, RH Starter; May: Steve Kent, LH Reliever; June: Travis Harper, RH Swingman.

Texas: Danny Kolb, RH Reliever
3-2 and 1 Saves on 12:12 K:BB in 17.2 IP over 19 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and 2.55 ERA.

Texas has not given Kolb even 20 IP at any level over the last three seasons, leaving him no opportunity to establish himself following injury troubles. His last quality season was in 1996 with A Charleston in the Sally League, yet the Rangers continued to promote him despite terrible command ratios. Kolb owns some impressive skills, including a 0.00 HR/9 supported by a fantastic 3.67 G-F, and a 5.1 H/9 even as Texas owns one of the major's worst defenses. Unfortunately no closer wannabe with a 1.00 K:BB will experience any noted success, and his ERA looks primed to rise rather abruptly. Deal or cut Kolb, ignoring him until he stops walking so many batters.

July Overachiever: Francisco Cordero, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3 Saves on 19:7 K:BB in 21.1 IP over 16 G with 18 H, 2 HR, and a 2.95 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2 Saves on 7:3 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 10 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 0.79 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Rogers, LH Starter; May: Ismael Valdes, RH Starter; June: Hideki Irabu, RH Reliever.

Toronto: Felix Heredia, LH Reliever
1-2 on 28:24 K:BB in 47 IP over 46 G with 47 H, 5 HR, and a 4.02 ERA.

While acceptable hit rates and a .8 homer rate have kept his ERA mostly respectable over the past few seasons, Heredia remains one of the least predictable relievers in the game. He's somehow managing the best ERA of his career despite a 1.2 K:BB, his worst command since his rookie season. A 1.07 G-F this year and .98 career mark suggest his homer rate might be a little low, and although I still believe he holds some promise in the hands of an exceptional pitching coach, Heredia does not belong on almost any roto team. Deal or cut him, especially if trying to improve qualitatively.

July Overachiever: Roy Halladay, RH Starter
Old stats: 12-4 on 118:37 K:BB in 156.2 IP over 22 GS with 141 H, 7 HR, and a 2.82 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 21:12 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 5 GS with 37 H, 2 HR, and a 3.74 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Corey Thurman, RH Reliever; May: Pete Walker, RH Swingman; June: Scott Cassidy, RH Reliever.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you're desperate for innings in a mixed league, you may gain a slight advantage by staying with AL September call-ups, as while AL pitchers do face a greater challenge with the DH, managers aren't tempted to pull a quality pitcher just to send up a pinch-hitter.