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August 20th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Note: The beginning of most stat lines includes data for H/AB for BA/OBP/SLG.
Arizona: Luis Gonzalez, OF A strained ribcage has limited Gonzo to one at-bat in the last week, and with Arizona seemingly assured of a playoff berth, they'll likely rest him as much as necessary to insure his health in October. Although his OPS is now lower than each of the last three years, his 1.35 BB:K, .18 BB:K, and 3.90 #P/PA are all career-best marks. He's lost power due to a 1.01 G-F, which is practically at his 1.03 career average and much worse than his .78 from last year. If he begins playing regularly again I expect him to finish with a BA over .300, so you probably should at least wait to see if he'll return to the lineup rather than attempt to move him at a discount.
July Underachiever: Matt Williams, 3B Previous Underachievers: April: Mark Grace, 1B; Tony Womack, SS; June: Craig Counsell, IF
His BA and OBP haven't really changed from last season but he's lost 84 points of SLG while dropping to his lowest level since 1997. While his 1.15 BB:K and .19 walk rate are good, they're not much better than his career marks. The drop in power is even more surprising as his 1.16 G-F is superior to his 1.26 from 2001 and only his 1.09 in 2000 was lower. With his .83 contact rate only a little under his .85 career mark, and Chipper's normal surge late in the year, now is a good time to acquire him, especially as he'll likely lose his third base eligibility for good next season barring an unexpected change in Atlanta's plans.
July Underachiever: Marcus Giles, 2B Previous Underachievers: April: Javy Lopez, C; May: Gary Sheffield, OF; June: Keith Lockhart, 2B
He's at least remained in the majors all year after unnecessarily spending most of 2001 at AAA Iowa. Perhaps Brown just isn't comfortable as a back-up even as his .31 BB:K and .08 walk rate are better than his career averages. I'm more concerned that his G-F is at 1.37 over the last two years after holding at .73 during the previous two seasons. Brown likely won't see greater playing time with the Cubs with Sosa and Alou signed through at least 2004, Patterson entrenched in center field, and recent addition Chad Hermansen competing for playing time. He could succeed if given a larger role, but you should look to deal him to a rebuilding team as even an Alou injury likely leaves Brown platooning with Hermansen.
July Underachiever: Todd Hundley, C Previous Underachievers: April: Fred McGriff, 1B; May: Moises Alou, OF; June: Bill Mueller, 3B
Although he missed the two weeks around the trade deadline due to a slightly torn muscle in the back of his left shoulder, he also suffered from problems with his right hamstring for much of the first half. Casey's 1.05 K:BB is the best mark of his career, his .11 walk rate is his strongest since his rookie season in 1998, and his .90 contact rate is easily his strongest rate. Unfortunately his 3.38 #P/PA indicates less patience than ever before and his 1.60 G-F, while slightly better than his career average, isn't much improvement at all. Only his complete lack of production makes him a good target to acquire, and he might continue to flounder the rest of the year.
July Underachiever: Ken Griffey, Jr., OF Previous Underachievers: April: Adam Dunn, OF; May: Aaron Boone, 3B; Todd Walker, 2B
Helton's loss of power is one of the strongest arguments for the effectiveness of the humidor as he's not posted significantly reduced power numbers on the road; he's hit eleven homers at home and nine on the road. A .99 G-F is right in line with his last three seasons, and a drop in contact rate to .84 from two seasons of almost .86 doesn't account for his reduced numbers. Both his 1.07 BB:K and .17 walk rate rank as his second best marks in those ratios, so we'd even normally expect an increased in average from last season. With twenty-three of his remaining thirty-eight games at home, I expect an across-the-board surge, making now an excellent time to acquire Helton.
July Underachiever: Juan Pierre, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Jose Ortiz, 2B; May: Todd Hollandsworth, OF; June: Juan Uribe, SS
Even as Jeff Torborg has kept the Marlins running this year, Wilson doesn't appear likely to approach another 30-30 season. His .42 BB:K and .12 walk rate are both career-bests, but a .72 contact rate is much worse than his .77 mark from last season. A 1.41 G-F, far worse than his .99 in 2001, at least explains his disappearing power. Without a decrease in his groundballs next year, he'll be lucky to even reach 20-20, but any improvement in contact rate should translate into direct BA development. Although Wilson's fallen short of most expectations this year, as his skills don't suggest an immediate rebound, look around for a potential deal.
July Underachiever: Derrek Lee, 1B Previous Underachievers: April: Kevin Millar, OF; May: Charles Johnson, C; June: Cliff Floyd, OF
Hidalgo is now barely holding onto a platoon starting job with Orlando Merced. Comparing the rest of his career, including this season's stats, to his great 2000 shows that not only has he shown better plate discipline on average during the surrounding years, but that his contact rate(.80 '00; .79 career) and #P/PA(3.88 '00; 3.76 career) were negligibly better. The only definite change is his .58 G-F was noticeably superior to his .80 career rate, although the move from Astrodome to Enron/Minute Maid should have helped compensate for the change. While Hidalgo may need a new organization, no one wants to assume his inflated contract even as he still owns the same skills that produced that 1.027 OPS in 2000. Rebuilding teams should look to acquire Hidalgo despite the likelihood of him not providing much 2002 help.
July Underachiever: Daryle Ward, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Morgan Ensberg, 3B; May: Craig Biggio, 2B; June: Gregg Zaun, C
In light of his unimpressive MLE power prior to last season, we probably should have treated 2001 as a likely career year for Lo Duca rather than the first full-season of a player's development curve. He turned thirty this year, so he's peaking, or even past his peak, right now. Lo Duca's stayed right around his 3.53 career #P/PA and his improved BB:K is at the expense of a dropping walk rate. A fantastic .95 contact rate unfortunately doesn't compensate for a rise in his G-F from 1.08 to 1.42, which explains much of his lost power. His skills support stronger overall stats, so as I expect a rise towards at least .300/10/60, you should look to acquire Lo Duca.
July Underachiever: Brian Jordan, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Shawn Green; May: Adrian Beltre, 3B; June: Cesar Izturis, SS
Milwaukee keeps looking for any excuse to avoid playing Stairs even when they must recognize his power potential. At least he's found somewhat regular playing time since the Ochoa trade; perhaps someone's noticed he has one RBI for each of those strikeouts that cause such consternation in Brewers' execs. His .68 BB:K is at his career mark while his .84 contact rate is superior to his normal ratio. Only his .10 walk rate and 3.73 #P/PA, the latter continuing a troubling three-year trend, are decently worse than his career averages, and his .98 G-F is right above his .95 norm. Stairs has only lost a little on-base ability while retaining all his power, and he'd provide a significant boost to any team willing to play him. I don't see any logical alternatives to starting Stairs, so feel free to acquire him if you need a power boost.
July Underachiever: Jeffrey Hammonds, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Raul Casanova, C; May: Eric Young, 2B; June: Ron Belliard, IF
After deserving a first-half Rookie of the Year award, Wilkerson has fallen into a dead heat with Damian Moss for second behind Austin Kearns in value, and Mark Prior and Jason Jennings both seem to be gaining on the top three. His .15 walk rate is quite good but his .70 contact rate prevents him from excelling. We also expected double-digit steals, and he might not reach half that level. Fortunately his superb 4.32 #P/PA demonstrates his great plate patience while his 1.01 G-F indicates moderate power potential, enabling you to at least wait to see how Wilkerson will finish the season.
July Underachiever: Fernando Tatis, 3B Previous Underachievers: April: Orlando Cabrera, SS; May: Lee Stevens, 1B; June: Orlando Cabrera, SS
Cedeno's 79% success rate in stolen base attempts is approximately the same as his rates in 1999 and 2001, the years in which he racked 66 and 55 bases respectively. One major culprit for his lack of speed is that his OBP and SLG have now fallen in three straight seasons, reducing his opportunities. A .39 BB:K and .08 walk rate are much worse than we've traditionally expected from Cedeno, and even a slightly higher contact rate doesn't compensate for increasing impatience. His G-F has returned to normal at 2.17 after rising to 2.52 last year, but we shouldn't expect any great power improvement at that high level despite the drastic drop. I don't see a severe loss in any of his skills, so barring additional information on an injury or a Mets' strategy limiting his running, we'll continue to recommend that teams needing speed should seek to acquire Cedeno.
July Underachiever: Jeromy Burnitz, OF
We expected he'd avoid a sophomore slump due to indications of improving skill, and while only a great September will allow him to match that prediction, we're fortunately seeing improvement in a few areas. A .49 BB:K, .08 walk rate, and .84 contact rate, while below the levels we'd like to see, are still all better than his marks from last season, as his 3.80 #P/PA. While a rise in his G-F from 1.06 to 1.24 indicates his marginal power loss, his more substantial problem is a drop in his SB% from 85% to 67%. Reportedly he only attempted eighteen steals during May, June and July, compared to thirty steals in thirty-one attempts during the same period last season, after his April difficulties increased his caution on the basepaths; he only succeeded in five of his nine April attempts. Now he's already stolen four bases in six attempts through three weeks of August, so try to acquire Rollins if you need steals as he could easily grab ten or more bags before the season ends.
July Underachiever: Bobby Abreu, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Travis Lee, 1B; May: Mike Lieberthal, C; June: Doug Glanville, OF
After averaging fifteen steals a year at a 66% success rate over the past four seasons, someone apparently realized that Young's baserunning antics kept costing Pittsburgh runs. Even as he's lost roto value he's regained some of his lost actual value by increasing his OPS to its highest level in three years on the strength of a .50 BB:K and .11 walk rate, both far above his career averages. His 4.15 #P/PA is the best mark of his career, as is a .55 G-F, which also continues an impressive six-year trend of power development. While Young doesn't really deserve a starting job, I expect his BA will rise as he continues producing somewhat helpful quantitative numbers, making him an intriguing target to acquire at a likely discount.
July Underachiever: Pokey Reese, 2B, PIT Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Kendall, C; May: Adrian Brown, OF; June: Aramis Ramirez, 3B
While he excelled in April, posting a .958 OPS with an 11:8 BB:K in 95 AB, two DL trips, including a two-week May vacation for a strained elbow and a six-week stay throughout June and half of July for a broken upper left arm, have left him at a far lower level of production. A .252 BA and .415 SLG are not what we expect from an All-Star third baseman, and with all his skill ratios, except his .79 contact rate, worse than his career averages, he doesn't appear able to rebound this season. Cut your losses in any available deal for someone with more probable immediate upside.
July Underachiever: Wiki Gonzalez, C Previous Underachievers: April: Ramon Vazquez, SS; May: Bubba Trammell, OF; June: Ray Lankford, OF
I don't like the idea of discussing Bonds as an underachiever as he's practically repeating perhaps the greatest offensive season in major league history, but looking from a straight roto perspective, he's not earning similar value. First, he's not reached the same RBI levels as last season due to the Rich Aurilia's inability to repeat one of the ten best seasons ever posted by a shortstop and even worse leadoff options than Dusty Baker played last season. Second, the combination of walks in 32% of his plate appearances rather than the 27% from last season and homers in only 11% of his at-bats instead of the 15% he managed in 2001 has reduced his homer pace near his pre-2001 high of 49. Third, he's suffering from a severe strain of his right hamstring that forces the Giants to pinch-run for him late in games and hampers his speed on the bases. The only category in which he'll improve is BA, and that development won't compensate for the lost two dozen homers and four dozen RBI, although only deal him if you're strong in BA and aren't desperate for his continued solid power production.
July Underachiever: Rich Aurilia, SS Previous Underachievers: April: Jeff Kent, 2B and Lost Son of Evil Knievel; May: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, OF; June: J.T. Snow, 1B
He's actually not far off pace for the stats we expected if he excelled both before and after a trade, and his placement in the middle of a relatively strong Cardinals' lineup definitely improves his production prospects. Rolen should continue improving as his .82 BB:K and .83 contact rate are both career bests, strongly suggesting a BA surge; he could even hold a .300+ average for the balance of the season. I'm a little concerned that his .89 G-F is his highest mark since 1998, but I don't believe this stat alone significantly impacts his power potential, especially given his higher contact rate means more potential extra-base hits. Teams needing five-category help should look to acquire Rolen where available.
July Underachiever: J.D. Drew, OF Previous Underachievers: April: Tino Martinez, 1B; May: Placido Polanco, IF; June: Edgar Rentera, SS
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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