Today's Fantasy Rx

I'm working on modifying LPR to give us a better idea of which starters to choose. We're leaning towards moving the a rating back down to a 50% DOM rating instead of the current 55%. In addition, we'll likely add both ABC and XYZ ratings.

Players would qualify for an A, B, or C if they dominate in 75% or more of their starts. This season, only seven pitchers have reached this level, and the majority aren't obvious selections. We expected to see Pedro, Randy, and Schilling, especially as they're each running a five-game PQS log of 55555, but they're joined by Halladay, Prior, Wakefield, and Woody Williams.

Players with disasters in 10% or less of their starts will receive X, Y, or Z ratings, and several pitchers in each league qualify in addition to the seven A pitchers. Washburn, Mussina, Hudson, Paul Wilson, Derek Lowe, Redman, Runelvys Hernandez, Buerhle, and Weaver join Pedro, Halladay, and Wakefield in representing the AL. In the Senior Circuit, Wood, Oswalt, Odalis Perez, Astacio, Burnett, Clement, Lawrence, Colon, Vazquez, Wolf, Maddux, Lieber, Oliver Perez, Miguel Batista, Padilla, and even Denny Stark all qualify.

We're not yet prepared to officially change the ranking system until we can update past seasons, but I thought you might be interested in seeing the shorthand determination of the top pitchers in the majors.

Twenty-six pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of a week ago. Five joined the list this week while three dropped off leaving us with twenty-eight pitchers displaying solid skills.

Pitchers who joined the list include Casey Fossum, Tim Wakefield, Oscar Henriquez, Steve Karsay, and Cliff Politte.

Pitchers who departed include Ugueth Urbina(HR/9), Matt Ginter(K:BB, K/9, HR/9), and Juan Acevedo(K/9).

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the fourteenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings which include all games played through August 14th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(55555)

Keith Foulke
Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Pedro's now run six straight 5 starts and should hit seven tonight. He's the best target in the game if you need to improve your ERA or WHIP.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(22452)
abxy - Roy Halladay(54454)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

I have a feeling Clemens will alternate a couple of very impressive starts with a disaster or two all the way to the playoffs, whereupon he'll immediately toss a few shutouts.

124
Chad Bradford

Urbina slips down due to too many homers. However using Ugie gives you a slight competitive advantage over teams like Minnesota who've played three more games and therefore offer three less potential save opps.

134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte

Politte will probably remain on the edge of this rating all season, but he's again looking fairly good at the moment.

234
Foulke's departure leaves this level vacant.

12
bxy - Mark Mulder(52533)

Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

Ginter's showing signs of weakness but there's nothing wrong with the remaining pitchers.

13
abxy- Tim Wakefield(54425)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

I'm glad to see Karsay back here after dominating for much of the year. Tim Wakefield's return is more impressive, and we're even considering using him on a Challenge team or two.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(54034)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(44354)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(42320)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(34423)
x - Danys Baez(40223)

Baez and Mussina are starting to trouble us, leaving only Hudson and perhaps Appier as relatively safe pitchers to deploy.

Matt Ginter

I still like Ginter's long-term potential but his current difficulties limit his usefulness in 2002.

24
cx - Paul Wilson(44343)

Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

Urbina's fall stops here, and as suggested above, he's a great closer to own right now despite his somewhat weak skills.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(00432)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

Riske's return again leaves him as the best choice for Indians' saves, but Cleveland's determination to justify the Mark Wohlers' signing likely limits Riske's role.

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(33433)
a - Johan Santana(50054)

Casey Fossum(5353)
Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Oscar Henriquez
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Fossum returns and should jump to at least an x rating next week. Oscar Henriquez's move onto the list places him in line for Tigers' save opps if Acevedo, who departed this week, falters or suffers an injury.

Only two teams in the majors have played as few as 118 games thus far: the St. Louis Cardinals and (former) St. Louis Browns. Although Baltimore closer Jorge Julio faces a moderately tough schedule, his skills suggest he can handle himself against any competition, and he'll have more potential for save opps than any other AL closer.

Brendan Donnelly is the best AL reliever who many fantasy owners don't know.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(43345)
axy - Freddy Garcia(04532)
bx - Joel Pineiero(43223)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(22254)
z - Kelvim Escobar

Sabathia's finally starting to tap his talent, and another dominant start or two would significantly increase our interest in him as a keeper.

Victor Zambrano(52)
Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez

3
bxy - John Burkett(25040)
yz - Rick Reed(31534)
y - Andy Pettitte(35435)

If the playoffs started tomorrow, Pettitte would deserve the Game 1 start for the Yankees, following by Clemens, Wells, and Mussina.

Gary Glover(34414)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

Wickman will miss the rest of 2002 and much of 2003 due to Tommy John surgery. While Mark Wohlers will likely continue as the closer, David Riske and Jerrod Riggan both own significantly greater upside.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(53452)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
xyz - Jamie Moyer(55442)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(24530)
x - John Lackey(04355)
y - Eric Milton(54555)

John Lackey shows up here for the first time, further establishing himself as both a solid pitcher for the rest of 2002 and increasing his keeper viability.

b
y - Cory Lidle(41353)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

c
x - Mark Redman(54540)
x - David Wells(44403)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(13031)
y - Paul Byrd(54424)
y - Jeff Weaver(44243)
y - Mark Buehrle(33423)
y - Jeff Suppan(33431)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(01233)
z - Sidney Ponson(23444)
z - Frank Castillo(32400)
Ismael Valdes(44353)
Rodrigo Lopez(45513)
Runelvys Hernandez(35234)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Joaquin Benoit(32340)
Shawn Sedlacek(23020)

Valdes may be the best pitcher left on the trade market; open up any remaining FAAB if he's dealt to the NL. Byrd and Buehrle still look fine, though the surprise here is the emergence of Runelvys Hernandez. He'll likely struggle at times, but he'll be an intriguing cheap keeper in many leagues.

y
z - Aaron Sele(42534)
z - Brad Radke(00544)
z - Kenny Rogers(34024)
z - Todd Ritchie(03302)
z - Pat Hentgen

Jon Garland(00454)
Dave Burba(43203)
Esteban Loiaza(33343)
Joe Mays(32324)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer

Radke and Garland are each hinting at the prospect of a very helpful stretch run; we're starting to like Garland's keeper potential again, but he needs to avoid disasters. Stay away from Todd Ritchie, the worst pitcher in majors this season.

z
Steve Parris(20340)
Jason Johnson(14124)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Juan Acevedo, Chris Carpenter(43033), Travis Driskill(30543), John Halama(31200), Aaron Harang(02033), Travis Harper(0443), Roberto Hernandez, Colby Lewis, Kyle Lohse(33332), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(433), Brian Powell(4205), Steve Sparks(45453), Jake Westbrook(5), Ben Weber, and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Miguel Ascencio(02033), James Baldwin(41500), Rob Bell(41223), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(00), Ryan Bukvich, Ryan Drese(20124), Scott Erickson(10030), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(3301), Danny Kolb, Jose Lima(52020), Mike Maroth(40442), Darrell May(54300), Terry Mulholland, Aaron Myette(10003), Charles Nagy(40050), Jay Powell, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Scot Shields, Jorge Sosa(43100), Jeff Tam, Anthony Telford, Pete Walker(10434), Mark Wohlers, and Danny Wright(44403).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Five players qualify for 1AX ratings: Pedro, Schilling, Randy, Halladay, and Wakefield. Prior and Woody Williams only barely miss the 1. When looking to add starters to help through the end of the year, specifically target these seven pitchers.