Today's Fantasy Rx

We'll continue reviewing potential FAAB-worthy batting prospects in the National League today.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Arizona: Alex Cintron, 23, SS/2B-S
.327/.351/.445 in 330 AB with 4 HR, 25 RBI, 51 R, 9/14 SB%, and 10:31 BB:K at AAA Tucson(PCL).

Arziona has rushed him up the minor league ladder so quickly that he's never had the chance to establish himself at a particular level or show any plate discipline. He's showing more consistency in the field, but he's now spending a significant amount of time at second base. In 755 AAA at-bats, he owns a .32 BB:K and .03 walk rate, completely unacceptable skill ratios. With Craig Counsell signed through two more years and Junior Spivey deserving a multi-year look at second base, we don't see any room for Cintron to stay in the majors as more than a back-up. His unsupported BA will plummet in the majors, so ignore Cintron unless desperate for any MIF with the slightest potential.

Previous prospects: May: Ernie Young; June: Chad Tracy; July: Lyle Overbay.

Atlanta: Travis Wilson, 25, OF/1B/2B-R
.271/.296/.419 in 425 AB with 12 HR, 60 RBI, 52 R, 9/12 SB%, and 12:92 BB:K at AAA Richmond(IL). The Braves have played with only four outfielders all year, but with the division seemingly in hand, expect them to frequently rest Sheffield and Chipper down the stretch. Wilson is the only outfielder on the 40-man roster in AAA, so while they might purchase the contract of someone like Bo Porter, I expect they'll give the versatile Wilson a look in September. Unfortunately he shows little baseball skill, and in 805 AAA at-bats, he only owns a sickening .11 BB:K and .02 walk rate. Only his flexibility gives him value, as he likely couldn't outhit Rey Ordonez in a regular role. Ignore Wilson until he shows at least a hint of plate discipline.

Previous prospects: May: Matt Franco; June: Ramon Castro; July: Mike Hessman.

Chicago Cubs: Bobby Hill, 24, 2B-S
.280/.380/.417 in 314 AB with 6 HR, 34 RBI, 69 R, 28/33 SB%, and 41:60 at AAA Iowa(PCL).

Bruce Kimm is quickly establishing himself as perhaps the worst manager in Cubs' history, an impressive yet disheartening thought when you consider the undistinguished competition. Besides not knowing how to double switch, absolute incompetence in running the pitching staff, and a bizarre determination to destroy his young arms, he apparently demanded Mike Mahoney's promotion when Girardi hit the DL. Adam Melhuse, who I reviewed last month, could likely outperform half the Cubs' starters at the plate, but Kimm favored Mahoney's defense over the chance to win games. Fortunately the Cubs at least granted Melhuse's request for his release, whereupon he simply returned to his previous place of employment in Colorado Springs.

Bobby Hill's promotion earlier this year was an example of Andy MacPhail acquiescing to Don Baylor in an attempt to save his manager's job. Of course Baylor only let Hill hit leadoff in two games after the rookie spent the last several years hitting only leadoff, and the role change kept him from developing in the majors. At least he's performed great after returning to Iowa, and all his skills indicate a September promotion and 2003 starting job are logical steps. We'd love to see Hill return to his natural shortstop position now that the Cubs seem bereft of quality middle infield prospects, and Bellhorn could then continue at second while they try to find a traditional power hitter at third. Jim Hendry's recent announcement that Alex S. Gonzalez will return at short precludes the possibility for improvement, so our best hope is for Hill to play second and lead-off while Bellhorn moves to third while dropping to the #2 hole. Hill will approach thirty steals next year if given the opportunity, so certainly attempt to FAAB him when he returns to the majors in about two weeks.

Previous prospects: May: Hee Seop Choi; June: Adam Melhuse; July: Julio Zuleta.

Cincinnati: Raul Gonzalez, 29, OF-R
.337/.420/.505 in 404 AB with 13 HR, 64 RBI, 85 R, 9/16 SB%, and 58:53 BB:K at AAA Louisville(IL).

Far more than flailing suspects Ruben Mateo or Wily Mo Pena, or even current bench jockey Reggie Taylor, Gonzalez deserves a long look in the majors after continuing to develop against AAA pitching over the last three seasons. He's displaying an excellent 1.09 BB:K and .14 walk rate to go with a great BA and solid power numbers. While he'll never have a chance to start for Cincy barring injury, he's worth a small FAAB bid if you need a decent BA and moderate quantitative help from your 5th OF or UT slot.

Jeff Frye, profiled here last month, retired last week after the Reds showed no indication of a potentially promoting him.

Previous prospects: May: Brandon Larson; June: Bobby Darula; July: Jeff Frye.

Colorado: J.D. Closser, 22, C-S
.307/.391/.526 in 274 AB with 11 HR, 54 RBI, 37 R, 7/10 SB%, and 38:61 BB:K at AA Carolina(SL).

The early season-ending injury to Garett Gentry has allowed Closser to emerge as the Rockies' top catching prospect. After spending last season in the Arizona Fall League while still with the Diamondbacks, Colorado will return him to the AFL this season in the hope that the extra experience will allow him to reach the majors next season. He's demonstrated impressive power and relatively good plate patience, and his .917 OPS is an improvement from last season despite a promotion to AA and spending this season in both a park and league that favors pitchers. With Bobby Estalella out for the season and Ben Petrick largely confined to the outfield, Closser might spend some time in Denver before heading out to Phoenix. If he's available at any point, make every effort to FAAB the potential future $20+ catcher.

Previous prospects: May: Jack Cust; June: Ben Petrick; July: Choo Freeman.

Florida: Pablo Ozuna, 23, 2B/OF/SS-R
.349/.397/.524 in 212 AB with 7 HR, 31 RBI, 33 R, 13/16 SB%, and 16:28 BB:K at AAA Calgary(PCL).

The Marlins allowed him all of twelve at-bats in the seventeen games he's played in the majors this year. Even Alex Gonzalez's season-ending injury didn't give him the shortstop job as Florida first futzed with Andy Fox and Mike Mordcai. They've even apparently moved Ozuna to a utility role at AAA, only letting him play 2B and OF. He'll never provide enough offense to start in the outfield, and I'm concerned that his time at second might precede a Luis Castillo trade. While Ozuna still needs to show more plate discipline, he's certainly showing solid progress after missing all of last year with a wrist injury. He could succeed if given the opportunity, and as cheap speed and a little power from the middle infield help every team, look to FAAB him in September.

Previous prospects: May: Jesus Medrano; June: Abraham Nunez; July: Brian Banks.

Houston: Adam Everett, 25, SS
.275/.331/.380 in 345 AB with 2 HR, 25 RBI, 51 R, 12/15 SB%, and 24:59 BB:K at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

Now in his third AAA season, Everett's plate discipline continues to deteriorate, and only an improved BA has increased his value at all. He possesses good speed but simply isn't on base often enough to take advantage of that skill. He's back in the majors to replace Julio Lugo, who is out for the year after a Kerry Wood pitch broke his left forearm. However newly re-signed Jose Vizcaino will likely remain the starter for veteran-friendly manager Jimy Williams, sharply reducing Everett's potential value. Ignore him unless desperate for MIF speed.

Previous prospects: May: Henry Stanley; June: Jason Lane; July: Morgan Ensberg.

Los Angeles: Joe Thurston, 22, 2B-L
.331/.369/.491 in 511 AB with 9 HR, 45 RBI, 92 R, 18/25 SB%, and 21:55 BB:K at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

Moved to second base after the Dodgers acquired Cesar Izturis, Thurston will challenge Mark Grudzielanek for a starting job next spring. He impressed us in the AFL with a good bat and strong defense, as well as a .453 OBP, nicely aided by a 12:14 BB:K in 111 AB. Unfortunately his .04 walk rate continues a two-year drop in his patience, and a .38 BB:K is much worst than last season's .74 at AA. He'll need to improve his plate discipline to succeed in the majors, but he's still leading the PCL in hits and runs. I suspect he'll easily earn double-digit value next year, so try toFAAB him this September.

Previous prospects: May: Mike Kinkade; June: Luke Allen; July: Chin-Feng Chen.

Milwaukee: Bill Hall, 22, SS-R
.228/.271/.312 in 404 AB with 4 HR, 31 RBI, 34 R, 14/22 SB%, and 23:90 BB:K at AAA Indianapolis(PCL).

The Brewers' next intelligent decision regarding a prospect will be their first in years, and their misplaced faith in Hall is indicative of a system-wide failure in developing talent. He hasn't broken a .30 BB:K or .07 walk rate since he debuted at R Helena in the Pioneer League back in 1998. While he posted a solid .877 OPS in 346 AB at A+ High Desert last year, Milwaukee didn't realize that he played in one of the best hitters' ballparks in baseball while not supporting his production with batting skills beyond hitting for average. He reportedly shows great range although his 35 errors in 112 games illustrate his inconsistency. Hall's not ready for the majors, barely prepared for AA, and still may be the best prospect on their 40-man roster. Obviously ignore Hall if the Brewers compound their past errors by promoting him this year.

Previous prospects: May: Israel Alcantara; June: Ryan Thompson; July: Jim Rushford.

Montreal: Valentino Pascucci, 23, 1B/OF-R
.239/.377/.435 in 398 AB with 21 HR, 67 RBI, 59 R, 2/2 SB%, and 78:106 BB:K at AA Harrisburg(EL).

Val's responsible for the only foul ball we've ever caught, and he was also kind enough to autograph it, so we've watched his play this year with significant interest. Montreal sent him back to AA after a relatively unimpressive .244/.344/.416 line last season. While his BA has dropped this year, he's improved most everywhere else, including jumping his .14 BB:K and .57 walk rate to a .74 BB:K and .20 walk rate. His problem is that his contact rate dropped from .76 to a terrible .73 even as he's already reached 21 HR and 67 RBI, numbers identical to his year-long production in 2001. He probably needs a new organization with a hitter-friendly AA park before he's promoted again, although I don't believe he'd perform much worse than Galaragga right now, and unlike Joe Vitiello, Pascucci's already on the 40-man roster. While he might succeed if given a chance in the majors, you should probably ignore him unless you know he'll find regular playing time.

Previous prospects: May: Brandon Phillips; June: Joe Vitiello; July: Terrmel Sledge.

New York Mets: Esix Snead, 26, OF-S
.264/.354/.355 in 330 AB with 3 HR, 37 RBI, 57 R, 61/77 SB%, and 42:60 BB:K at AA Binghamton(EL).

I can't imagine the Mets will promote Jose Reyes now before they need to add him to the 40-man roster, so Snead, while also currently not on the 40-man, might get a look to help them determine if he's worth keeping for next year. He jumped onto many prospect lists two years ago when he stole 109 bases for the Cardinals' A+ Potomac affiliate, and after the Mets claimed him off waivers, he's responded by increasing his AA SB% from 74% to 79% and his OPS from .609 to .709. While most players improve when repeating a level, Snead offers great range, consistent defense, and outstanding speed, along with developing plate discipline. He likely won't ever start in the majors, but he should move to AAA next year and could easily spend several years as a fifth outfielder who steals two dozen bases every year. Spend a buck or two of FAAB if you see him in the majors and need steals.

Previous prospects: May: Ty Wigginton; June: Marcus Scutaro; July: Jason Phillips.

Philadelphia: Chase Utley, 23, 3B-L
.264/.350/.467 in 454 AB with 17 HR, 69 RBI, 72 R, 8/11 SB%, and 44:86 BB:K at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

While not on Philly's 40-man roster, they're going to want to see him this September to see if he's ready to fill Scott Rolen's former home at third base in 2003. A first-round pick in 2000, Utley skipped AA to move straight to AAA this season. The move has worked out wonderfully as he's significantly improved nearly every offensive facet of his game this year. Most importantly, he's holding a .51 BB:K and .10 walk rate at AAA after failing to reach those levels at A+ Clearwater. Certainly attempt to FAAB him if promoted, as while he might struggle in the majors for a while, he should spend at least a few years at starting for the Phillies at either third or second base.

Previous prospects: May: Johnny Estrada; June: Nick Punto; July: Marlon Byrd.

Pittsburgh: Adrian Brown, 28, OF-S
.389/.462/.482 in 114 AB with 1 HR, 7 RBI, 24 R, 15/19 SB%, and 16:12 BB:K at AAA Nashville(PCL).

Pittsburgh probably prefers to look at Tike Redman or Tony Alvarez in their search for a centerfielder, but Brown's playing great at AAA and deserves another long look in September as Pittsburgh determines if he has a future with the organization. With only Adam Hyzdu and Rob Mackowiak in the majors, and no prospects seemingly ready for the majors, Brown appears to be the best overall centerfielder in the organization right now. Even when struggling for the Pirates earlier this year and only posting a .192/.271/.267, he still posted an 18:24 BB:K in 172 AB. Look to FAAB Brown in September for both a SB and BA boost.

Previous prospects: May: Dave Post; June: Shawn Garrett; July: Chris Pritchett.

San Diego: Cesar Crespo, 23, UT-S
.257/.360/.400 in 265 AB with 6 HR, 29 RBI, 34R,16/22 SB%, and 41:67 BB:K at AAA Portland(PCL).

I was going to discuss Xavier Nady until I looked at his stats and realized he's neither ready for the majors now nor prepared to start there next year. The Padres never should have skipped him past to AA and he'll likely need at least a few months more AAA time in 2003.

Crespo spent a couple uneventful weeks earlier in the majors but should return to San Diego no later than next season as an Andy Fox-like 25th man. At AAA this year, he's spent 33 games at 2B, 21 in the outfield, 16 at short, and even 4 at third base, committing only nine errors despite changing positions nearly every day. He shows good speed and plate discipline while providing significant defensive flexibility. Burroughs' probable move to second will keep Crespo from starting for the next few years, although he'll be a nice player to keep on reserve. However unless you're desperate for any UT speed, ignore Crespo when he returns this September.

Previous prospects: May: Kory DeHaan; June: Kevin Barker; July: Sean Burroughs.

San Francisco: Tony Torcato, 22, OF-L
.282/.325/.425 in 433 AB with 12 HR, 59 RBI, 57 R, 4/10 SB%, and 28:54 BB:K at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Torcato's BA has fallen while his secondary skills have improved in his second season at AAA, although his 150 2001 at-bats aren't a significant sample size. I'm really not impressed with any of his stats, and the Giants' would probably see more production if they left Tsuyoshi Shinjo in the lineup next year. Fellow Grizzly Todd Linden, a switch-hitting 2001 supplemental first-round pick, has reached AAA in his first professional season and has probably supplanted Torcato as the Giants' top outfield prospect. Since Linden's not on the 40-man roster, I suspect San Francisco will keep him in AAA before sending him to the AFL, instead calling Torcato back to the majors to provide depth in September. As he's not likely to provide much production either this year or in 2003, ignore Torcato if promoted.

Previous prospects: May: Edwards Guzman; June: Brian Simmons; July: Juan Melo.

St. Louis: Keith McDonald, 29, C-R
.291/.341/.534 in 206 AB with 11 HR, 31 RBI, 30 R, ½ SB%, and 11:39 BB:K at AAA Memphis(PCL).

While Ivan Cruz and his 31 homers deserve discussion, the Cardinals likely won't promote the 34-year-old minor league masher, and both LaRussa's fondness for catching depth and McDonald's place on the 40-man roster seemingly assure a call-up. McDonald still fails to show any plate discipline even as he's spending his fifth straight year at AAA Memphis, but his consistently respectable BA and power potential make him an interesting roto option if he every finds regular playing time. In 2000 he even managed 3 homers and 5 RBI in only 7 at-bats. Unfortunately with Mikes Matheny and DiFelice already in St. Louis, I only expect McDonald to play in the late innings and blowouts. You should probably ignore his call-up unless the Cardinals suffer other injuries.

Previous prospects: May: Chad Meyers; June: Mike Coolbaugh; July: Jon Nunnally.

Our roto prospect series will continue tomorrow with AL pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams frequently recall players on their 40-man roster to provide bench help in September even when those players have little or no chance of starting in the majors the following season. When FAABing prospects in keeper leagues, pay more attention to solid AAA performances than players given major league cameos after rushing up two or three levels. For example, the Mets may take a look at current AA starter Jose Reyes, but I expect him to begin next year at AAA. Ty Wigginton and Marcos Scutaro each have a greater chance of consistent playing time at the beginning of the season, and therefore deserve more FAAB interest.