Today's Fantasy Rx

Twenty-nine pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of a week ago. Keith Foulke rejoined the list this week while Casey Fossum(HR/9), Tim Wakefield(HR/9), Joel Pineiero(HR/9), and Cliff Politte(K:BB) dropped off, leaving our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP at twenty-six AL pitchers.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the thirteenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings which include all games played through August 7th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(55555)

Keith Foulke
Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Foulke finally returns to his rightful place with the other top pitchers in the American League over the last three years. After ridding themselves of several veteran pitchers over the last two years, we'd be very surprised if the Sox move Foulke before next year's trading deadline at the earliest. He's definitely someone to target in keeper leagues, and he could easily return to $40 value next year.

We should also highlight Pedro's current stunning streak; he's the only pitcher this year to run a 55555 log at any time. If he remains healthy, there's no pitcher we'd rather own for the last two months. Schilling can also hit this milestone with a 5 on Saturday, placing these two aces significantly ahead of their roto competition.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(02245)
abxy - Roy Halladay(35445)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

If you can't own Pedro, target Clemens and Halladay. I even prefer them over the top AL West starters, as well as Buehrle and Derek Lowe.

124
Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

134
Billy Koch

Politte's command problems leave Koch alone here, not that he'll mind considering his dominance at the end of A's games.

234
Foulke's departure leaves this level vacant for the first time in months.

12
bxy - Mark Mulder(45253)

Matt Ginter
Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

Pineiro slips down as Mulder improves his consistency. Despite injury problems and early struggles, Mulder actually looks more impressive right now than Tim Hudson or even Barry Zito. Ginter could be Chicago's closer by next August, but we don't foresee him seeing practically any save opps within the next year.

13
Buddy Groom

Wakefield remains an effective pitcher, but his trip down the list similarly leaves Groom alone here.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(45403)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(31443)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(42320)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(23442)
x - Danys Baez(53402)

No changes here other than Appier starting to show consistency reminiscent of the first two months of the season.

24
cx - Paul Wilson(53443)

Dan Miceli
Todd Van Poppel

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(20043)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
Cliff Politte
David Riske
Mike Stanton

I'm not trusting anyone on this list at the moment, and you should probably try to only run Kennedy against weak offenses.

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(33343)
a - Johan Santana(55005)

Juan Acevedo
Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Casey Fossum drops off due to a slight homer problem. Santana has a very good chance of returning to Minnesota's rotation next season, so rebuilding teams should target him. Also, Juan Acevedo has both the background and skills to keep his job unless Matt Anderson makes a complete recovery in the off-season. However we still feel they'll turn to Anderson for at least a couple of months to attempt to boost his trade value. Dombowski historically has no problem with continually establishing closers, dealing them for prospects when they reach arbitration, and then developing a new closer to repeat the process.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(34433)
axy - Freddy Garcia(10453)
bx - Joel Pineiero(24322)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(22225)
z - Kelvim Escobar

Pineiro falls to this level, although he's pitching more consistently positively than even Freddy Garcia. Zito's not dominating, and we're beginning to worry that the injury we predicted back in Spring Training will soon emerge.

Victor Zambrano(5)
Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez

While Zambrano looked very impressive in his first big league start, we'll need to see at least a few more solid appearances before recommending him in his new role.

3
abxy - Tim Wakefield(35442)
bxy - John Burkett(42504)
yz - Rick Reed(43153)
y - Andy Pettitte(43354)

Wakefield landed here, but we see little wrong with deploying any of these pitchers at the moment, as all four have dominated in at least two of their most recent starts while suffering only one disaster at most.

Gary Glover(23441)
Steve Karsay
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

Mecir's finally approaching an upgrade after months of miscellaneous skill problems; we're hesitant to deploy any other pitcher listed here for various reasons.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(44534)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
xz - Orlando Hernandez(52453)
yz - Jamie Moyer(43554)
y - Eric Milton(54555)

Buehrle and David Wells are showing some troubling signs, although the remaining three pitchers here could provide a lot of help over the last two months. Monitor Milton's injury problems closely if you own him.

b
y - Cory Lidle(04135)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

c
x - Mark Redman(45454)
x - David Wells(34440)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

While we knew most of his ratios looked very solid, we didn't know that Redman was emerging as a potentially dominant pitcher. He's providing fantasy help even in Detroit, and could jump several dollars in value if he moves teams in the off-season.

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(05130)
y - Paul Byrd(33544)
y - Jeff Weaver(44243)
y - Mark Buehrle(53342)
y - Jeff Suppan(23343)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(20123)
z - Sidney Ponson(23444)
z - Frank Castillo(32400)
Rodrigo Lopez(34551)
John Lackey(40435)
Ismael Valdes(32443)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Shawn Sedlacek(42302)

Aside from Ortiz, Weaver, and maybe Buehrle, the top of this list appears filled with pitchers whose GMs wanted unacceptably grand packages in return for only decent pitchers with the ability to avoid disasters but not to dominate. Only Weaver's homer rate is keeping him from moving significantly up the list, and we suspect relief work will help him rebound by next season. Byrd, Buehrle, Ponson, and Valdes look like the safest picks from this group, although I also like the upside of Rodrigo Lopez and John Lackey if they avoid burnout-related problems.

y
z - Aaron Sele(24425)
z - Brad Radke(53005)
z - Kenny Rogers(33402)
z - Todd Ritchie(03302)
z - Pat Hentgen

Esteban Loiaza(53334)
Jon Garland(30045)
Dave Burba(43203)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Joe Mays(03232)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer

Sele, Radke, Rogers, and Loaiza all look like good plays. We don't trust Mays much at all right now, so look to move him to a rebuilding team if you still own him at a decent salary.

z
Steve Parris(42034)
Jason Johnson(41412)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), James Baldwin(44150), Joaquin Benoit(3234), Chris Carpenter(53430), Casey Fossum, John Halama(03120), Aaron Harang(30203), Travis Harper(0443), Oscar Henriquez, Roberto Hernandez, Runelvys Hernandez(3523), Danny Kolb, Colby Lewis, Kyle Lohse(53333), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(433), Brian Powell(420), Scot Shields, Steve Sparks(24545), Ben Weber, and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Miguel Ascencio(30203), Rob Bell(14122), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(00), Ryan Bukvich, Luis de los Santos(020), Ryan Drese(02012), Travis Driskill(10305), Scott Erickson(51003), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(3301), Matt Kinney(32021), Jose Lima(00520), Mike Maroth(50404), Darrell May(54300), Terry Mulholland, Aaron Myette(31000), Charles Nagy(04005), Jay Powell, Dan Reichert(01231), Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Jorge Sosa(34310), Jeff Tam, Anthony Telford, Pete Walker(04104), Mark Wohlers, and Danny Wright(44440).

Internet Challenge

Starters(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:FLO(M.Tejera)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:MIN(Mays)
Curt Schilling: Sun:FLO(Beckett)
Mike Mussina: Sun:OAK(Mulder)
Javier Vazquez: Sat:@MIL(Jo.Cabrera)
Eric Gagne: 3 Home vs. Philadelphia.
Roy Halladay: Sun:ANA(Washburn)

No starts: Clemens, Morris, Zito, Wood, and Oswalt,.

We're going to try to make up some ground in strikeouts by running Randy, Pedro, and Schilling along with the obvious plays of Gagne and Halladay. Both for cap reasons and opponents, we'll take Vazquez over Mussina to fill our last slot.

We want to start all four Rockies at home, even Pierre since he should grab an easy two steals or more against the Cubs. Sosa is necessary since he's in Coors, and that costs us ARod, who's at least only the road in Cleveland. Vlad and Bonds sit, though we'll look to run the latter as soon as he reaches 600. Jason Giambi also must sit for cap room, forcing us to run J.D. Drew - at least he'll be a low percentage play against New York and two left-handers.

After Helton, we prefer Konerko over Klesko as we'd rather have the American Leaguer at home than the National Leaguer on the road. Ichiro is our final bench player, and while we hate taking him out of the lineup, it's either him or Pierre unless we want to run Oswalt for no stats; Pierre's finally heating up and should play at least the first two games of the series.

The Umpire Hunter(1st lg; 15th overall)
Week 19b: August 9-August 11

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Todd Helton		1980
1B	Paul Konerko		1220
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	Torii Hunter		830
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Sammy Sosa		1900
DH	J.D. Drew		1010

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Eric Gagne		500
SP	Roy Halladay		490
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: The best way to fix ERA/WHIP problems is by adding an ace and a couple good middle relievers while divesting yourself of questionable starters. Pedro and Schilling should top your ace list, followed by Randy and Maddux, and then use the LPR ratings in selecting middle relievers(although pay attention to their skills over the last month or so).