Today's Fantasy Rx

Today, our July roto prospect series concludes with NL pitchers.

Note: For those of you unfamiliar with FAAB, each team normally has $100 to spend throughout the year on all free agent pickups. Most injury replacements or speculative picks go for a buck or two, hot starters go for $5-$10, top prospects go in the $10-$30 range, and we've seen $90+ bids on top players traded into the league, as well as selected call-ups.

Arizona: Jose Valverde, 22, RH Reliever
5 Saves on 45:14 K:BB in 31 IP over 30 G with 29 H, 4 HR, and a 7.26 ERA at AAA Tucson(PCL).

Valverde, despite an impressive batch of skills that would almost qualify him for a 1 LPR if in the majors, somehow has a 7.26 ERA, so I suspect he may remain in the minors for another month or two. However he's also the best reliever left in Arizona's upper minors, and the only one with a 14.4 career K/9 who's never fallen below 10.1 K/9 at any level. If one of their major league relievers falter or injure themselves, he's a logical call-up even with the high ERA, and along with the occasional save and vultured win, we can expect he'll actually provide qualitative category help. Look to FAAB this possible future close if you have the opportunity.

Previous prospects: May: Eric Knott; June: John Patterson.

Atlanta: Trey Hodges, 22, RH Starter
12-4 on 76:38 K:BB in 113.2 IP over 19 GS with 104 H, 5 HR, and a 2.93 ERA at AAA Richmond(IL).

Doug Linton, Joey Dawley, and Hodges respectively rank 2nd, 4th, and 5th in the International League in ERA, and after the recent promotions of Joe Roa and Luis de los Santos, they're the top 3 active leaders; Hodges is also the active wins leader. Plenty of writers seem concerned about the impending fall of Atlanta's perhaps overworked bullpen, but even if they lose their three right-handed setup guys in Ligtenberg, Holmes, and Gryboski, Richmond's Tres Caballeros could likely maintain even the historical levels of production of Atlanta's current relief corps. Unlike the 37-year-old Linton or 30-year-old Dawley, Hodges may be Atlanta's top pitching prospect due to his impressive resumé. He won the College World Series MVP in 2000 with LSU before pitching twenty unimpressive innings with A- Jamestown of the New York-Penn League. Then in 2001, the Braves jumped him past A Macon to A+ Myrtle Beach in the Carolina League, where he compiled a 15-8 record on 139:18 K:BB in 173 IP over 26 GS and shared the Carolina League pitcher of the year award with Jimmy Journell. Now the Braves skipped him past AA, and he's responded with almost a mirror image of last year's season. While he could likely increase his dominance with either another few months in the minors or a move to the bullpen, this 17th round pick should be ready to join the Braves' rotation next season. If he gets a chance this year, certainly look to FAAB him cheaply, as he shouldn't hurt you in 2001 and could pay significant dividends in keeper leagues.

Previous prospects: May: Joey Dawley; June: Doug Linton.

Chicago Cubs: Rick Palma, 22, LH Reliever
55:16 K:BB in 56 IP over 40 G with 51 H, 3 HR, and a 2.09 ERA between AA West Tennessee(SL) and AAA Iowa(PCL).

Steve Smyth needs at least two months at AAA to hone his skills since the Cubs want him to remain in the rotation, but Jeff Fassero's likely replacement might arrive even sooner. Although he also dominated in AA last year with a 2.8 K:BB, 8.9 K/9, .8 HR/9, and 7.8 H/9 and we believed he deserved a shot at AAA, the Cubs kept him down until about a week ago. I suspect he'll replace Fassero in the bullpen upon the logical trade, but since the Cubs have several right-handed closer candidates, you should ignore Palma for now. While we expect to hype him as a LIMA-esque reliever next spring, his situation is too uncertain to warrant a 2002 pick-up.

Previous prospects: May: Mark Prior; June: Will Cunnane.

Cincinnati: Mike Neu, 24, RH Reliever
67:17 K:BB in 50 IP over 33 G with 41 H, 2 HR, and a 2.16 ERA between AA Chattanooga(SL) and AAA Louisville(IL).

He may be ready to succeed Danny Graves as soon as next spring, but I'm surprised he's not in the Astros' system since most scouts dislike this 5'10" stud relief prospect. Neu lasted until the 29th round in 1999 despite closing for the College World Series champs in Miami, and since turning pro, he's posted career skills of 12.8 K/9, 2.6 K:BB, .5 HR/9, and 6.9 H/9, all marks ranging from good to superb. He only needed two months to master AA, and he hasn't lost much upon his promotion to Louisville. Target him if rebuilding, and even consider a low FAAB bid if he's called up soon.

Previous prospects: May: Trever Miller; June: Luke Hudson.

Colorado: Aaron Cook, 23, RH Starter
11-3 on 78:31 K:BB in 138.2 IP over 20 GS with 113 H, 5 HR, and a 1.62 ERA between AA Carolina(SL) and AAA Colorado Springs(PCL).

I should probably consider skipping the Rockies each month since I'm very unlikely to recommend any of their pitchers until they've proven themselves over a couple weeks in the majors. Fortunately their current wealth of pitching prospects requires commentary, albeit one aimed more towards acquisitions for 2003 or later. While he self-destructed in the Futures' Game, Cook has built up his arm strength since the 1997 draft while Jason Young, also recently promoted to AAA, suffers from some stamina problems. Cook's command is above average and both his homers and hits allowed are extremely good, but Colorado should have left him at AA until he managed a higher strikeout rate than his 5.5 K/9 mark. With their multitude of other young starting options, and their two expensive veteran lefties signed for a few more years with no-trade clauses, the Rockies should seriously consider moving Cook to middle relief in the hope that he'll develop dominance. We should definitely ignore him in roto this year.

Previous prospects: May: Matt Whiteside; June: Ryan Cameron.

Florida: Tommy Phelps, 28, LH Reliever
2-2 on 41:13 K:BB in 53 IP over 36 G with 55 H, 6 HR, and a 3.74 ERA at AAA Calgary(PCL).

With Blaine Neal in the majors and most upper level Marlins' pitching prospects struggling mightily, Phelps and Toby Borland are the only pitchers deserving advancement at the moment, and the 33-year-old Borland hasn't impresses us in 228 major league innings. Phelps only saw AAA action for the first time last year, but between compiling a 51:18 K:BB in 59.2 IP with 74 H and 4 HR at AAA Toledo(IL) and this season's improvement in a far worse pitchers' park, he sure seems ready for the majors, likely as soon as Florida moves Graeme Lloyd. He should hang around the majors for a few years, although I can't recommend him for roto considering his uncertain situation and less than stellar dominance, so ignore Phelps if promoted.

Previous prospects: May: Nate Teut; June: Blaine Neal.

Houston: Jeriome Robertson, 25, LH Starter
10-5 on 88:28 K:BB in 125 IP over 19 GS with 110 H, 8 HR, and a 2.81 ERA at AAA New Orleans(PCL).

We're obviously disappointed in the performance of Saarloos, especially after we spent forty-two bucks of FAAB on him in one league, but maybe next time we'll avoid pitchers obviously distracted by their honeymoons. He might be back up very soon, and considering he's resumed dominating hitters in his four AAA appearances, he makes an interesting play if you can activate him for a potential weekend start.

Robertson's the most accomplished starting candidate remaining at AAA for Houston, and even he's only managed a 6.3 K/9. Along with his 3.1 K:BB and .6 HR/9, he has the best combination of skills among a surprisingly unimpressive prospect group. He pitched very well at AA Jackson in 1999 but then Houston started him at A+ Kissimmee in 2000, rapidly promoting him through AA and then to AAA, an experience for which he wasn't prepared. Robertson regained his effectiveness in relief at AA Round Rock last year, but now he's emerged as an interesting candidate for the Astros' rotation. I don't think he's ready for the majors this year, and unless his strikeout rate increases by September, they should leave him in the major league bullpen next year since his stuff has never been great. He has some long-term potential, although you should ignore any 2002 promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Pete Munro; June: Kirk Saarloos.

Los Angeles: Jeff Williams, 30, LH Reliever
11 Saves on 49:14 K:BB in 59.1 IP over 34 G with 55 H, 2 HR, and a 2.58 ERA at AAA Las Vegas(PCL).

The Dodgers have four solid lefty relievers in AAA right now, although neither Shane Nance and his ten vultured wins nor Scott Aldred are on the 40-man roster. Victor Alvarez and Jeff Williams have pitched equally as well as the others, and their presence on the 40-man makes them far more likely to be called up. Williams edges Alvarez due to an ERA almost half of Alvarez's 5.00. The problem with Williams is that he really struggled in his last three trials with the Dodgers, accumulating a dreadful 19:34 K:BB ratio in 47.2 IP in the majors. Even if LA only limits him to facing left-handers, I'm too concerned about another repeat of his previous problems to suggest adding him, so definitely ignore his likely September promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Guillermo Mota; June: Kevin Beirne.

Milwaukee: Brian Mallette, 27, RH Reliever
15 Saves on 33:14 K:BB in 28.1 IP over 28 G with 25 H, 4 HR, and a 4.13 ERA at AAA Indianapolis(IL).

He's scattered five outings in the majors in three different trips that lasted a total of twenty-one days, and his 10.80 ERA roughly reflects his marginally acceptable line of 5:3 K:BB in 5 IP with 7 H and 5-7 G-F. However his career AAA numbers of 2.5 K:BB, 11.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, and 6.9 H/9 indicate a reliever ready for the majors. Milwaukee should deal DeJean while his value is maxed due to his rising saves total, install Luis Vizcaino as the closer, and promote Mallette, likely improving the relief corps while decreasing the payroll. Make sure he's settled into a stable role before bidding a buck or two of FAAB.

Previous prospects: May: Jayson Durocher; June: Jimmy Osting.

Montreal: Dicky Gonzalez, 23, RH Starter
5-3 on 51:25 K:BB in 75.1 IP over 15 GS with 83 H, 5 HR, and a 4.06 ERA between AAA Norfolk(IL) and AAA Ottawa(IL).

I'd normally advise moving someone like Gonzalez to the bullpen if they'd compiled a 6.4 K/9 in 172.1 AAA innings but the Mets should have never promoted him to the majors last year, especially to an undefined role. He's still regaining his form from two years ago when he completely dominated the Eastern League for AA Binghamton. If the Expos trade Yoshii and another prospect for an established first baseman or closer, Gonzalez would be better end-of-rotation filler than Tim Drew, although Dan Smith and Zach Day are probably more prepared. I don't envision Gonzalez helping for roto this year, but keep him in mind for the future as you ignore any 2002 promotion.

Previous prospects: May: Julio Manon; June: Zach Day.

New York Mets: Jim Serrano, 26, RH Reliever
7-5 on 57:22 K:BB in 56 IP over 39 G with 64 H, 2 HR, and a 3.38 ERA at AAA Norfolk(IL).

Picked up from the Expos with Strickland in the deal that sent Dicky Gonzalez to Montreal, Serrano continues to pitch very effectively in his first AAA exposure. While I'm concerned about his high hit rate, the relatively good Mets' defense should help compensate for that problem. If the Mets dealt an expensive veteran like Dave Weathers, Serrano would be an excellent replacement in their pen and could even develop into a closer. If he gets called up and you need some relatively low-risk roster filler, feel free to FAAB Serrano for a buck.

Previous prospects: May: Bobby M. Jones; June: John Bale.

Philadelphia: Eric Junge, 25, RH Starter
9-4 on 92:48 K:BB in 124 IP over 20 GS with 110 H, 11 HR, and 3.12 ERA at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre(IL).

I've seen some ridiculous rumors lately suggesting that Brett Myers should end up in the bullpen, and nothing about either his stuff, repertoire, or stats suggests the need for such a move. He could still dominate in the rotation, and we look forward to seeing him in the majors later this year. Junge has put up numbers outwardly similar to Myers' marks but lacks the solid skill foundation. Philly acquired him with Jesus Cordero from LA for Omar Daal, and Junge may be ready for a rotation spot next year. He really needs to spend at least the rest of this season at AAA to improve his command, although he should definitely have some long-term roto upside. Ignore him if he makes the majors this year while remembering him for 2003.

Previous prospects: May: Brett Myers; June: Joe Roa.

Pittsburgh: Al Reyes, 31, RH Reliever
7-3 on 72:14 K:BB in 53 IP over 34 G with 32 H, 4 HR, and a 2.72 ERA at AAA Nashville(PCL).

He's actually pitched quite well in the majors for the last four years, so this complete dominance at AAA isn't surprising at all. There's no reason he shouldn't be in the majors, and now that Mike Fetters is gone, he'd be an excellent replacement as a right-handed setup man, he's and certainly a better choice than someone like Sean Lowe. A smart GM would also move Brian Boehringer ASAP to give Reyes enough time to demonstrate his skills in the majors before the end of August, allowing him to move a third veteran right-hander to whatever team wants Reyes on waivers. There's no reason not to use Reyes as roster filler if needed, picking him up for a buck or two of FAAB.

Previous prospects: May: Bronson Arroyo; June: Salomon Torres.

San Diego: Dennis Tankersley, 23, RH Starter
4-4 on 75:29 K:BB in 67.2 IP over 13 GS with 61 H, 4 HR, and a 2.93 ERA between AA Mobile(SL) and AAA Portland(PCL).

Now finally in AAA to stay, Tank remains perhaps the top pitching prospect in baseball; he'll be eligible for the 2003 Rookie of the Year if he doesn't return to the majors this season. In his 7 major league starts, he compiled a 28:25 K:BB in 33.2 IP with 35 H, 7 HR, and a 7.75 ERA, so he obviously needs a couple months in AAA to refine his control and maintain a decent homer rate. If he's available in your keeper league, definitely attempt to FAAB him upon his recall, although you should remain wary of him in single-season leagues since he should stay in the minors at least until September.

Previous prospects: May: Brandon Villafuerte; June: Jason Kershner.

San Francisco: Troy Brohawn, 29, LH Reliever
3-3 on 48:18 K:BB in 60.1 IP over 48 G with 63 H, 5 HR, and a 3.43 ERA at AAA Fresno(PCL).

Several very intriguing prospects remain at AAA, but with Troy Brohawn replacing Aaron Fultz in the Giants' pen only a day or two ago, we'll see if Brohawn merits a pick-up. While his dominance isn't particularly impressive, his overall skills suggest a pitcher ready for the majors. He also looked somewhat ready last season when the Snakes kept him up most of the season despite a poor 30:23 K:BB in 49.1 IP, although he'd only pitched in 24 games of relief at the AA level when he reached the majors. Brohawn doubled that total this year, and I think he'll emerge as a better reliever than Chad Zerbe before the playoffs. Unfortunately, considering Brohawn's problems last year, you should ignore this call-up until he proves himself for a few weeks in PacBell.

Previous prospects: May: Kurt Ainsworth; June: Jerome Williams.

St. Louis: Steve Stemle, 25, RH Starter
9-4 on 52:23 K:BB in 90 IP over 13 GS(15G) with 95 H, 7 HR, and a 3.80 ERA between AA New Haven(EL) and AAA Memphis(PCL).

Everyone knows the Cardinals desperately need another quality starter even assuming Jason Simontacchi and Travis Smith can remain effective, and with top prospects Josh Pearce and Jimmy Journell injured, Stemle may be the next candidate for a tryout. Unfortunately he likely won't solve any problems since his 26:8 K:BB in 46.2 IP at AAA is his first 2+ K:BB since his rookie year, and with neither great command nor any dominance, even an occasional defensive lapse could send his ERA skyrocketing. Ignore Stemle if the Cards give him a chance, as I'd need to see several high-PQS starts before recommending someone with such questionable minor league numbers.

Previous prospects: May: Les Walrond; June: Travis Smith.

Internet Challenge

Kim, Mike Williams, Guardado, and Julio continue to comprise the extent of our relief corps.

Starters(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:@SD(Peavy)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:@NYY(Mussina)
Mike Mussina: Fri:BOS(Pedro)
Javier Vazquez: Fri:@FLO(M.Tejera)
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@CHC(Lieber)
Eric Gagne: 3 Home vs. San Francisco.

No starts: Schilling, Clemens, Morris, Zito, Wood, and Lawrence.

As we desperately need power and have cap problems with running three of our four most expensive pitchers, we're going to deploy Mussina at home as he's beaten Boston in all three starts against them in 2002, and sit Pedro's 1-0 record with a no decision vs. the Yankees. We dislike using a placeholder here, but we'd have to either run Durazo, bench Jason Giambi, ARod, or Larry Walker, or burn one of our last three moves if we deployed all our active pitchers. None of those alternatives is acceptable, so we'll run Lawrence.

We're already near the cap after these moves, so we'll keep Helton benched and also reserve Vlad and Bonds on the road. Klesko and Drew then join the others on our bench.

The Umpire Hunter(1st lg; 4th overall)
Week 16b: July 19 - July 21

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Paul Konerko		1220
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
OF	Larry Walker		1530
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
Of	Juan Pierre		1180
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Sammy Sosa		1900
DH	Juan Uribe		500

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Eric Gagne		500
SP	Brian Lawrence		480
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: Trade deadlines are approaching in many leagues. You need to begin assessing your overall standing unless you've already begun rebuilding. Are you capable of winning with your current roster, do you need to deal your top keepers to assure a 1st place finish, or are you only slightly likely to finish in the money and should consider rebuilding if you own some decent keepers and good trade bait.