Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

Arizona: Randy Johnson, LH Future Hall of Fame Ace
12-2 on 155:33 K:BB in 124.2 IP over 17 GS with 97 H, 14 HR, and 160-82 G-F; 2.38 ERA.

Not many Arizona pitchers are performing above expectations; their three studs are the very notable exceptions. After a brief period of some skill problems, particularly home run problems, Randy's 54555 current 5-start PQS log indicates he's regained all of his dominance. He's meeting or exceeding his averages in K:BB(4.7 '02; 3.0 career), K/9(11.3 '02; 11.1 career), H/9(7.0 '02; 7.0 career), and HR/9(1.0 '02; .8 career); perhaps most impressively, he's posting the best G-F(1.95 '02; 1.20 career) of his career. If you can afford him, he's definitely someone to acquire.

May Overachiever: Curt Schilling, RH Ace
Old stats: 10-1 on 123:8 K:BB in 89 IP over 12 GS with 69 H, 9 HR, and a 2.93 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 47:6 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 4.32 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer

Atlanta: Chris Hammond, LH Reliever
6-2 on 34:19 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 30 G with 25 H, 1 HR, and 56-31 G-F; 1.59 ERA.

After not pitching in the majors since 1998, Hammond's returned as one of the key components of a Braves' bullpen that currently compares favorably to the greatest relief corps in history. His K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.6 career) indicates some latent control problems, but he's improved his K/9(7.8 '02; 5.5 career) and H/9(5.8 '02; 9.6 career), the latter helped by the second best defense in the NL. A 1.81 G-F supports the massive drop in HR/9(.2 '02; .9 career), so while his ERA will likely jump at least a point by the end of the year, I'd still at least wait a few more weeks before taking him off my roster.

May Overachiever: Kevin Gryboski, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-1 on 14:12 K:BB in 19 IP over 17 G with 15 H, 1 HR, and a .95 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 9:8 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 12 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 2.19 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever

Chicago Cubs: Matt Clement, RH Starter
5-5 on 95:37 K:BB in 96.2 IP over 15 GS with 75 H, 10 HR, and 126-81 G-F; 3.82 ERA.

The acknowledged throw-in with Alfonseca in the Spring Training deal, he dominated for much of the early part of the season, and his 53342 current 5-start PQS log shows that he's maintained much of his effectiveness. We've observed welcome improvements in his K:BB(2.6 '02; 1.6 career), K/9(8.9 '02; 7.4 career), and H/9(7.0 '02; 8.7 career), along with a solid HR/9(.9 '02; .9 career) roughly supported by his G-F(1.56 '02; 1.74 career), despite a small drop in the last skill ratio. His five wins don't reflect his true roto value this year, and if the Cubs' offense continues improving, you'll want to acquire Clement now if you need a starter.

May Overachiever: Antonio Alfonseca, RH Closer
Old stats: 7 Saves on 18:11 K:BB in 22.2 IP over 19 G with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 2.38 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4 Saves on 8:5 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 3.18 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Cruz, RH Starter

Cincinnati: Luis Pineda, RH Swingman
1-3 on 31:22 K:BB in 32 IP over 25 G(1GS) with 22 H, 3 HR, and 29-36 G-F; 2.81 ERA.

Cincinnati's now resorting to starting Pineda over several interesting AAA candidates like Luke Hudson and Rotohelp Favorite Jose Acevedo, and a quick glance at his K:BB(1.4 '02; .9 '01), compiled largely in relief, shows why he needs to stay in the bullpen. His K/9(8.7 '02; 6.5 '01) is fairly impressive, although I don't expect him to continue his success in H/9(6.2 '02; 8.0 '01) and especially HR/9(.8 '02; 1.0 '01) given his generally poor G-F(.81 '02; .61 '01). If anyone indicates interest in him, deal him now before starting drives up his ERA.

May Overachiever: Chris Reitsma, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-1 on 31:21 K:BB in 53.2 IP over 10 GS with 53 H, 4 HR, and a 2.52 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-4 on 16:9 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS with 31 H, 1 HR, and a 5.40 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter

Colorado: Dennys Reyes, LH Reliever
0-1 on 24:20 K:BB in 31 IP over 34 G with 25 H, 0 HR, and 50-19 G-F; 3.19 ERA.

Reyes' success is somewhat shocking since he's never managed an ERA below 3.80 even when pitching in great pitchers' parks like Dodger Stadium. He's struggled with his K:BB(1.2 '02; 1.6 career) and K/9(7.0 '02; 8.8 career) but dropped his H/9(7.3 '0; 8.4 career), along with a perfect HR/9(0.0 '02; .6 career) supported by the second-best G-F(2.63 '02; 1.51 career) of his career. Even with the G-F improvement, he'll eventually begin allowing homers, and especially considering his vanishing command, I expect his ERA will rise very quickly; deal him if anyone's interested.

May Overachiever: Denny Stark, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-1 on 12:14 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 17 H, 2 HR, and a 3.47 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 9:13 K:BB in 15 IP over 8 G(1GS) with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 2.40 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Jennings, RH Starter

Florida: Michael Tejera, LH Swingman
3-1 on 29:22 K:BB in 48.1 IP over 28 G(4GS) with 41 H, 4 HR, and 58-59 G-F; 3.17 ERA.

Tejera should probably only be in AAA right now but has pitched effectively in the majors with little apparent skill. Regardless of role, his K:BB(1.3 starting; 1.3 relieving) is quite poor while his HR/9(.8 starting; .7 relieving) appears fairly good despite interesting variance in his G-F(.70 starting; 1.3 relieving). His H/9(7.3 starting; 9.4 relieving) drop while starting, though his K/9(4.9 starting; 5.8 relieving) improve while relieving, creating a curious mix of skill. Perhaps more intriguing is his 0353 PQS log, although he's started against the offensive powerhouses of Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Philadelphia. We may grab him for his likely double start next week in one or two leagues but look elsewhere for long-term qualitative statistical help; attempt to deal him while his ERA is low and his rotation spot secure.

May Overachiever: Hansel Izquierdo, RH Swingman
Old stats: 1-0 on 14:11 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 14 G(1GS) with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 1.54 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 6:10 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G(1GS) with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 15.63 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter

Houston: Kirk Saarloos, RH Starter
0-2 on 5:4 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 2 GS with 16 H, 1 HR, and 16-3 G-F; 16.20 ERA.

Saarloos is certainly an overachiever since he's never spent a day at AAA or pitched even 100 innings at AA. He's pitched fairly bad in his two starts but still has significant upside; his 5.33 G-F is fantastic and 6.8 K/9 is above average. Obviously his control is poor and he's allowing far too many hits, although the Astros have provided little defensive help for him. We still think he could dominate as soon as his next start, so if you've already picked up Saarloos, wait a while longer to monitor his progress, reserving him if possible.

May Overachiever: Ricky Stone, RH Reliever
Old stats: 2-2 on 16:15 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 27 G with 20 H, 4 HR, and a 2.70 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 12:5 K:BB in 14 IP over 12 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 1.93 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter

Los Angeles: Kazuhisa Ishii, LH Starter
11-3 on 91:58 K:BB in 91 IP over 15 GS with 79 H, 7 HR, and 104-79 G-F; 3.36 ERA.

You can't attribute his record solely to the Dodgers' offense since Ishii only receives the 28th best run support in the majors. A 34054 5-start PQS log is extremely good, and I have no complaints about his 9.0 K/9 or a .7 HR/9, roughly supported by a 1.3 G-F. However, his 7.8 H/9 is primarily due to the best defense in the majors. A 1.6 K:BB is also troublesome given his great strikeout rate. He could win twenty games and strike out close to two-hundred batters, but I find his ERA and WHIP very difficult to predict; wait for more data if you already own him, and if you need a starter, be very careful not to overpay in trade if Ishii is available.

May Overachiever: Eric Gagne, RH Closer
Old stats: 18 Saves on 35:4 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 25 G with 16 H, 3 HR, and a 1.65 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 10 Saves on 23:0 K:BB in 13 IP over 12 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a .69 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Daal, LH Swingman

Milwaukee: Valerio de los Santos, LH Reliever
1-2 on 13:8 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 13 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and 18-23 G-F; 2.94 ERA.

The main bright spot here is the lack of homers allowed, but considering he averages 1.5 HR/9 over his career, his current G-F(.78 '02; .72 career) indicates he'll return to that level. With problems already noticeable in K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.1 career) and a K/9(6.4 '02; 7.8 career) barely at an acceptable level, a couple of homers plus a slight nudge in his H/9(4.4 '02; 7.7 career) will send his value plummeting. Deal de los Santos to avoid further risk to your qualitative stats.

May Overachiever: Mike DeJean, RH Closer-for-Now
Old stats: 9 Saves on 22:14 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 24 G with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 2.83 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 5 Saves on 14:6 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 4.76 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever

Montreal: Tomokazu Ohka, RH Starter
7-4 on 59:23 K:BB in 92.1 IP over 15 GS(16G) with 95 H, 8 HR, and 149-93 G-F; 3.02 ERA.

A current 45333 5-start PQS log worries me that Ohka may not maintain his gains in several skills, including K:BB(2.6 '02; 2.0 career), K/9(5.8 '02; 5.5 career), and H/9(9.2 '02; 10.4 career). Fortunately his G-F(1.60 '02; 1.43 career) development supports his HR/9(.8 '02; 1.1 career) improvement, and while he likely won't dominate hitters this year, he'll remain a very useful pitcher. Acquire Ohka if his owner doesn't realize the extent of his effectiveness this year.

May Overachiever: Matt Herges, RH Short Reliever
Old stats: 6 Saves on 23:14 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 27 G with 35 H, 1 HR, and a 3.29 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 5:1 K:BB in 10 IP over 12 G with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 1.80 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever

New York Mets: Mark Guthrie, LH Reliever
2-0 on 20:7 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 31 G with 12 H, 1 HR, and 28-12 G-F; 1.86 ERA.

Only the combination of five skill ratios all much better than his career average allows me to conclude that he can likely finish the year with a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in his career. His solid K:BB(2.9'02; 2.1 career), K/9(9.3 '02; 7.2 career), and H/9(5.6 '02; 9.3 career) indicate that he's dominating most opponents, and his reduced HR/9(.5'02; .9 career) is supported by a very good G-F(2.33 '02; 1.27 career). While he likely won't maintain these levels and could struggle at some point, he's a solid pitcher to acquire if you need to replace a DL'd pitcher or a weak starter.

May Overachiever: Steve Trachsel, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-5 on 27:30 K:BB in 63 IP over 11 GS with 67 H, 3 HR, and a 3.57 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 26:10 K:BB in 31.1 IP over 5 GS with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 3.45 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever

Philadelphia: Carlos Silva, RH Reliever
1-0 on 25:11 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 30 G with 38 H, 2 HR, and 65-17 G-F; 2.48 ERA.

Silva's a good long-term pick-up since he's probably first in line to close if Mesa leaves as a free agent after next year. However he could also be a helpful addition now. Only his 9.4 H/9 is above our LIMA standards, a remarkable accomplishment for a rookie pitcher with only ten games in relief before this season. He's holding respectable ratios in 2.3 K:BB and 6.2 K/9, and a fantastic 3.8 G-F supports his great .5 HR/9. Silva remains on our short list in leagues where we need relief help, and we see little reason not to acquire him if needed.

May Overachiever: Vicente Padilla, RH Starter
Old stats: 6-4 on 57:19 K:BB in 77 IP over 11 GS with 62 H, 4 HR, and a 3.04 ERA. Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 4-0 on 19:11 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 2 HR, and a 2.76 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever

Pittsburgh: Mike Fetters, RH Reliever
0-0 on 26:17 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 29 G with 25 H, 3 HR, and 41-24 G-F; 3.25 ERA.

After initial rumbles that he would demand a trade last winter, Fetters recanted when he realized his current contract was better than anything he'd find as a free agent. Unfortunately his skills don't really support his success this year, as while his K/9(8.5 '02; 6.4 career) is a nice improvement, his K:BB(1.5 '02; 1.5 career) remains as weak as ever, suggesting increasing command problems. He's even only maintaining numbers near his career marks in H/9(8.1'02; 8.8 career), HR/9(1.0 '02; .8 career), and G-F(1.71 '02; 1.98 career). However he's Williams' primary backup for Pirates' saves, so unless you have a much better alternative available, you could certainly wait to see if he'll luck into a bigger role.

May Overachiever: Kip Wells, RH Starter
Old stats: 8-2 on 43:27 K:BB in 66 IP over 11 GS with 60 H, 4 HR, and a 3.00 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 20:8 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 3 HR, and a 3.30 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever

San Diego: Oliver Perez, LH Starter
2-0 on 13:9 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS with 15 H, 1 HR, and 22-16 G-F; 2.41 ERA.

Perez has overachieved just by making the majors so quickly, as while he excelled in the minors, he only made 8 starts at A+ Lake Elsinore and 4 starts at AA Mobile before his promotion, giving him a total of 226 IP over 40 starts above Rookie ball. Practically no non-college draftees can ascend at this rate over a year and a half, and we barely have a sizeable statistical sample to examine even when combining all his stats from full-season ball. A 334 PQS log thus far shows he has potential beyond that suggested by a 20-year-old lefty who started this year in A+; he compiled that log against Seattle and the Yankees at home and against San Francisco on the road. You could speculate on him if already rebuilding, but as I don't expect him to continue his success, you should probably wait for more data before considering him if in contention.

May Overachiever: Brett Tomko, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-4 on 61:22 K:BB in 71 IP over 11 GS with 65 H, 11 HR, and a 3.42 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 13:10 K:BB in 33 IP over 5 GS with 38 H, 2 HR, and a 4.36 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever

San Francisco: Jay Witasick, RH Reliever
1-0 on 31:14 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 21 G with 24 H, 0 HR, and 47-34 G-F; 1.23 ERA.

His conversion to relief last year netted the Padres D'Angelo Jimenez and then cost the Giants John Vander Wal to pick him up. The latter move seems like a very wise decision, since after struggling to some extent in the AL with New York, he's strongly rebounded as a key component of a bullpen that's remained quite effective despite losing top lefty Jason Christiansen and suffering through FRod's struggles. While Witasick has maintained his solid K:BB(2.2 '02; 1.8 career) and K/9(7.6 '02; 7.8 career), he's made excellent strikes in H/9(5.9 '02; 10.5 career) and HR/9(0.0 '02; 1.5 career). He hasn't seen a noticeable increase in G-F(1.38 '02; 1.30 career), so he's due to start allowing homers at some point, and therefore will see an ERA rise. I don't expect his value can rise much higher, especially since he's not first in line for saves, so if anyone's interested in him, feel free to deal Witasick for someone with more upside.

May Overachiever: Chad Zerbe, LH Reliever
Old stats: 1-0 on 11:11 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 11 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 3.44 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 5:3 K:BB in 13 IP over 10 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 2.08 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter

St. Louis: Jason Simontacchi, RH Starter
5-1 on 20:13 K:BB in 48 IP over 8 GS with 45 H, 6 HR, and 82-59 G-F; 3.00 ERA.

The refugee from the Italian leagues has stormed the majors with a very impressive two-month run. We've picked him up in one league and been very pleased with the results, but we're very concerned about his immediate future. Only his secondary skills, with a 8.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 1.39 G-F, appear within an acceptable range. His 1.5 K:BB and 3.8 K/9 indicate that he's not dominating hitters at all and could easily suffer a few disasters in the very near future. I suspect his value will decrease rather rapidly in the near future, only rebounding if his command improves, so start exploring a potential deal to a team that doesn't recognize the predictive value of pitching skills.

May Overachiever: Luther Hackman, RH Reliever
Old stats: 1-2 on 12:16 K:BB in 29 IP over 18 G with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 2.17 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 4:3 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 4 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 10.13 ERA.

Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Veres, RH Reliever

Internet Challenge

Starters(6)
Curt Schilling: Sun@CLE(Baez)
Mike Mussina: Fri:NYM(D'Amico)
Matt Morris: Sun:CIN(B.Chen)
Kerry Wood: Fri:@CHW(D.Wright)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@TEX(Park)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road at Anaheim.
Brian Lawrence: Fri:@KC(Ascencio)

No starts: Randy, Pedro, Clemens, Vazquez, Zito, .

Relievers(4)
Jason Isringhausen: 3 Home vs. Cincinnati.
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road at Cleveland.
Mike Williams: 3 Road at Detroit.
Eddie Guardado: 3 Home vs. Milwaukee.
Jorge Julio: 3 Home vs. Philadelphia.

Williams, Guardado, and Julio all look solid, and despite his disastrous week thus far, we'll pitch anyone against Cleveland right now.

We're most concerned about Wood's start, and while we considered taking him over Oswalt, we prefer Houston's offense in Texas.

Colorado's still on the road, so we'll sit as many Rockies as possible. However since we want all three top outfielders active, we'll deploy Juan Uribe, sitting J.D. Drew and Jimmy Rollins. We'd love to pull Durazo from the lineup, but we still haven't found a good combination that gives us the necessary cap flexibility.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 13b: June 28-June 30

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Vladimir Guerrero	1880
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Barry Bonds		1830
DH	Erubiel Durazo		440

SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Brian Lawrence		480
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: Thursday is the last day for All-Star voting; here's our recommended ballot. Click here to vote.

	
POS	AL			NL
1B	J. Giambi		T. Helton
2B	A. Soriano		J. Vidro
3B	S. Hillenbrand		M. Lowell
SS	A. Rodriguez		J. Hernandez
C	J. Posada		M. Piazza
OF	I. Suzuki		B. Bonds
OF	M. Ramirez		S. Sosa
OF	T. Hunter		V. Guerrero

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.



Rotohelp		June 2002 Overachieving NL Pitchers by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx Arizona: Randy Johnson, LH Future Hall of Fame Ace 12-2 on 155:33 K:BB in 124.2 IP over 17 GS with 97 H, 14 HR, and 160-82 G-F; 2.38 ERA. Not many Arizona pitchers are performing above expectations; their three studs are the very notable exceptions. After a brief period of some skill problems, particularly home run problems, Randy's 54555 current 5-start PQS log indicates he's regained all of his dominance. He's meeting or exceeding his averages in K:BB(4.7 '02; 3.0 career), K/9(11.3 '02; 11.1 career), H/9(7.0 '02; 7.0 career), and HR/9(1.0 '02; .8 career); perhaps most impressively, he's posting the best G-F(1.95 '02; 1.20 career) of his career. If you can afford him, he's definitely someone to acquire. May Overachiever: Curt Schilling, RH Ace Old stats: 10-1 on 123:8 K:BB in 89 IP over 12 GS with 69 H, 9 HR, and a 2.93 ERA. Recommendation: acquire. Stats since recommendation: 2-2 on 47:6 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 5 HR, and a 4.32 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Byung-Hyun Kim, RH Closer Atlanta: Chris Hammond, LH Reliever 6-2 on 34:19 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 30 G with 25 H, 1 HR, and 56-31 G-F; 1.59 ERA. After not pitching in the majors since 1998, Hammond's returned as one of the key components of a Braves' bullpen that currently compares favorably to the greatest relief corps in history. His K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.6 career) indicates some latent control problems, but he's improved his K/9(7.8 '02; 5.5 career) and H/9(5.8 '02; 9.6 career), the latter helped by the second best defense in the NL. A 1.81 G-F supports the massive drop in HR/9(.2 '02; .9 career), so while his ERA will likely jump at least a point by the end of the year, I'd still at least wait a few more weeks before taking him off my roster. May Overachiever: Kevin Gryboski, RH Reliever Old stats: 0-1 on 14:12 K:BB in 19 IP over 17 G with 15 H, 1 HR, and a .95 ERA. Recommendation: wait. Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 9:8 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 12 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and a 2.19 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Darren Holmes, RH Reliever Chicago Cubs: Matt Clement, RH Starter 5-5 on 95:37 K:BB in 96.2 IP over 15 GS with 75 H, 10 HR, and 126-81 G-F; 3.82 ERA. The acknowledged throw-in with Alfonseca in the Spring Training deal, he dominated for much of the early part of the season, and his 53342 current 5-start PQS log shows that he's maintained much of his effectiveness. We've observed welcome improvements in his K:BB(2.6 '02; 1.6 career), K/9(8.9 '02; 7.4 career), and H/9(7.0 '02; 8.7 career), along with a solid HR/9(.9 '02; .9 career) roughly supported by his G-F(1.56 '02; 1.74 career), despite a small drop in the last skill ratio. His five wins don't reflect his true roto value this year, and if the Cubs' offense continues improving, you'll want to acquire Clement now if you need a starter. May Overachiever: Antonio Alfonseca, RH Closer Old stats: 7 Saves on 18:11 K:BB in 22.2 IP over 19 G with 18 H, 1 HR, and a 2.38 ERA. Recommendation: acquire. Stats since recommendation: 4 Saves on 8:5 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 3.18 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Juan Cruz, RH Starter Cincinnati: Luis Pineda, RH Swingman 1-3 on 31:22 K:BB in 32 IP over 25 G(1GS) with 22 H, 3 HR, and 29-36 G-F; 2.81 ERA. Cincinnati's now resorting to starting Pineda over several interesting AAA candidates like Luke Hudson and Rotohelp Favorite Jose Acevedo, and a quick glance at his K:BB(1.4 '02; .9 '01), compiled largely in relief, shows why he needs to stay in the bullpen. His K/9(8.7 '02; 6.5 '01) is fairly impressive, although I don't expect him to continue his success in H/9(6.2 '02; 8.0 '01) and especially HR/9(.8 '02; 1.0 '01) given his generally poor G-F(.81 '02; .61 '01). If anyone indicates interest in him, deal him now before starting drives up his ERA. May Overachiever: Chris Reitsma, RH Starter Old stats: 3-1 on 31:21 K:BB in 53.2 IP over 10 GS with 53 H, 4 HR, and a 2.52 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 0-4 on 16:9 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS with 31 H, 1 HR, and a 5.40 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Elmer Dessens, RH Starter Colorado: Dennys Reyes, LH Reliever 0-1 on 24:20 K:BB in 31 IP over 34 G with 25 H, 0 HR, and 50-19 G-F; 3.19 ERA. Reyes' success is somewhat shocking since he's never managed an ERA below 3.80 even when pitching in great pitchers' parks like Dodger Stadium. He's struggled with his K:BB(1.2 '02; 1.6 career) and K/9(7.0 '02; 8.8 career) but dropped his H/9(7.3 '0; 8.4 career), along with a perfect HR/9(0.0 '02; .6 career) supported by the second-best G-F(2.63 '02; 1.51 career) of his career. Even with the G-F improvement, he'll eventually begin allowing homers, and especially considering his vanishing command, I expect his ERA will rise very quickly; deal him if anyone's interested. May Overachiever: Denny Stark, RH Starter Old stats: 3-1 on 12:14 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 4 GS with 17 H, 2 HR, and a 3.47 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 9:13 K:BB in 15 IP over 8 G(1GS) with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 2.40 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Jason Jennings, RH Starter Florida: Michael Tejera, LH Swingman 3-1 on 29:22 K:BB in 48.1 IP over 28 G(4GS) with 41 H, 4 HR, and 58-59 G-F; 3.17 ERA. Tejera should probably only be in AAA right now but has pitched effectively in the majors with little apparent skill. Regardless of role, his K:BB(1.3 starting; 1.3 relieving) is quite poor while his HR/9(.8 starting; .7 relieving) appears fairly good despite interesting variance in his G-F(.70 starting; 1.3 relieving). His H/9(7.3 starting; 9.4 relieving) drop while starting, though his K/9(4.9 starting; 5.8 relieving) improve while relieving, creating a curious mix of skill. Perhaps more intriguing is his 0353 PQS log, although he's started against the offensive powerhouses of Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Philadelphia. We may grab him for his likely double start next week in one or two leagues but look elsewhere for long-term qualitative statistical help; attempt to deal him while his ERA is low and his rotation spot secure. May Overachiever: Hansel Izquierdo, RH Swingman Old stats: 1-0 on 14:11 K:BB in 23.1 IP over 14 G(1GS) with 20 H, 2 HR, and a 1.54 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 6:10 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G(1GS) with 13 H, 0 HR, and a 15.63 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: A.J. Burnett, RH Starter Houston: Kirk Saarloos, RH Starter 0-2 on 5:4 K:BB in 6.2 IP over 2 GS with 16 H, 1 HR, and 16-3 G-F; 16.20 ERA. Saarloos is certainly an overachiever since he's never spent a day at AAA or pitched even 100 innings at AA. He's pitched fairly bad in his two starts but still has significant upside; his 5.33 G-F is fantastic and 6.8 K/9 is above average. Obviously his control is poor and he's allowing far too many hits, although the Astros have provided little defensive help for him. We still think he could dominate as soon as his next start, so if you've already picked up Saarloos, wait a while longer to monitor his progress, reserving him if possible. May Overachiever: Ricky Stone, RH Reliever Old stats: 2-2 on 16:15 K:BB in 26.2 IP over 27 G with 20 H, 4 HR, and a 2.70 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 12:5 K:BB in 14 IP over 12 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 1.93 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Mlicki, RH Starter Los Angeles: Kazuhisa Ishii, LH Starter 11-3 on 91:58 K:BB in 91 IP over 15 GS with 79 H, 7 HR, and 104-79 G-F; 3.36 ERA. You can't attribute his record solely to the Dodgers' offense since Ishii only receives the 28th best run support in the majors. A 34054 5-start PQS log is extremely good, and I have no complaints about his 9.0 K/9 or a .7 HR/9, roughly supported by a 1.3 G-F. However, his 7.8 H/9 is primarily due to the best defense in the majors. A 1.6 K:BB is also troublesome given his great strikeout rate. He could win twenty games and strike out close to two-hundred batters, but I find his ERA and WHIP very difficult to predict; wait for more data if you already own him, and if you need a starter, be very careful not to overpay in trade if Ishii is available. May Overachiever: Eric Gagne, RH Closer Old stats: 18 Saves on 35:4 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 25 G with 16 H, 3 HR, and a 1.65 ERA. Recommendation: acquire. Stats since recommendation: 10 Saves on 23:0 K:BB in 13 IP over 12 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and a .69 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Daal, LH Swingman Milwaukee: Valerio de los Santos, LH Reliever 1-2 on 13:8 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 13 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and 18-23 G-F; 2.94 ERA. The main bright spot here is the lack of homers allowed, but considering he averages 1.5 HR/9 over his career, his current G-F(.78 '02; .72 career) indicates he'll return to that level. With problems already noticeable in K:BB(1.6 '02; 2.1 career) and a K/9(6.4 '02; 7.8 career) barely at an acceptable level, a couple of homers plus a slight nudge in his H/9(4.4 '02; 7.7 career) will send his value plummeting. Deal de los Santos to avoid further risk to your qualitative stats. May Overachiever: Mike DeJean, RH Closer-for-Now Old stats: 9 Saves on 22:14 K:BB in 28.2 IP over 24 G with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 2.83 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 5 Saves on 14:6 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 4.76 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Luis Vizcaino, RH Reliever Montreal: Tomokazu Ohka, RH Starter 7-4 on 59:23 K:BB in 92.1 IP over 15 GS(16G) with 95 H, 8 HR, and 149-93 G-F; 3.02 ERA. A current 45333 5-start PQS log worries me that Ohka may not maintain his gains in several skills, including K:BB(2.6 '02; 2.0 career), K/9(5.8 '02; 5.5 career), and H/9(9.2 '02; 10.4 career). Fortunately his G-F(1.60 '02; 1.43 career) development supports his HR/9(.8 '02; 1.1 career) improvement, and while he likely won't dominate hitters this year, he'll remain a very useful pitcher. Acquire Ohka if his owner doesn't realize the extent of his effectiveness this year. May Overachiever: Matt Herges, RH Short Reliever Old stats: 6 Saves on 23:14 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 27 G with 35 H, 1 HR, and a 3.29 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 5:1 K:BB in 10 IP over 12 G with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 1.80 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: T.J. Tucker, RH Reliever New York Mets: Mark Guthrie, LH Reliever 2-0 on 20:7 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 31 G with 12 H, 1 HR, and 28-12 G-F; 1.86 ERA. Only the combination of five skill ratios all much better than his career average allows me to conclude that he can likely finish the year with a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in his career. His solid K:BB(2.9'02; 2.1 career), K/9(9.3 '02; 7.2 career), and H/9(5.6 '02; 9.3 career) indicate that he's dominating most opponents, and his reduced HR/9(.5'02; .9 career) is supported by a very good G-F(2.33 '02; 1.27 career). While he likely won't maintain these levels and could struggle at some point, he's a solid pitcher to acquire if you need to replace a DL'd pitcher or a weak starter. May Overachiever: Steve Trachsel, RH Starter Old stats: 3-5 on 27:30 K:BB in 63 IP over 11 GS with 67 H, 3 HR, and a 3.57 ERA. Recommendation: wait. Stats since recommendation: 3-1 on 26:10 K:BB in 31.1 IP over 5 GS with 23 H, 4 HR, and a 3.45 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Grant Roberts, RH Reliever Philadelphia: Carlos Silva, RH Reliever 1-0 on 25:11 K:BB in 36.1 IP over 30 G with 38 H, 2 HR, and 65-17 G-F; 2.48 ERA. Silva's a good long-term pick-up since he's probably first in line to close if Mesa leaves as a free agent after next year. However he could also be a helpful addition now. Only his 9.4 H/9 is above our LIMA standards, a remarkable accomplishment for a rookie pitcher with only ten games in relief before this season. He's holding respectable ratios in 2.3 K:BB and 6.2 K/9, and a fantastic 3.8 G-F supports his great .5 HR/9. Silva remains on our short list in leagues where we need relief help, and we see little reason not to acquire him if needed. May Overachiever: Vicente Padilla, RH Starter Old stats: 6-4 on 57:19 K:BB in 77 IP over 11 GS with 62 H, 4 HR, and a 3.04 ERA. Recommendation: acquire. Stats since recommendation: 4-0 on 19:11 K:BB in 32.2 IP over 5 GS with 29 H, 2 HR, and a 2.76 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Cliff Politte, RH Reliever Pittsburgh: Mike Fetters, RH Reliever 0-0 on 26:17 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 29 G with 25 H, 3 HR, and 41-24 G-F; 3.25 ERA. After initial rumbles that he would demand a trade last winter, Fetters recanted when he realized his current contract was better than anything he'd find as a free agent. Unfortunately his skills don't really support his success this year, as while his K/9(8.5 '02; 6.4 career) is a nice improvement, his K:BB(1.5 '02; 1.5 career) remains as weak as ever, suggesting increasing command problems. He's even only maintaining numbers near his career marks in H/9(8.1'02; 8.8 career), HR/9(1.0 '02; .8 career), and G-F(1.71 '02; 1.98 career). However he's Williams' primary backup for Pirates' saves, so unless you have a much better alternative available, you could certainly wait to see if he'll luck into a bigger role. May Overachiever: Kip Wells, RH Starter Old stats: 8-2 on 43:27 K:BB in 66 IP over 11 GS with 60 H, 4 HR, and a 3.00 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 20:8 K:BB in 30 IP over 5 GS with 30 H, 3 HR, and a 3.30 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Beimel, LH Reliever San Diego: Oliver Perez, LH Starter 2-0 on 13:9 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS with 15 H, 1 HR, and 22-16 G-F; 2.41 ERA. Perez has overachieved just by making the majors so quickly, as while he excelled in the minors, he only made 8 starts at A+ Lake Elsinore and 4 starts at AA Mobile before his promotion, giving him a total of 226 IP over 40 starts above Rookie ball. Practically no non-college draftees can ascend at this rate over a year and a half, and we barely have a sizeable statistical sample to examine even when combining all his stats from full-season ball. A 334 PQS log thus far shows he has potential beyond that suggested by a 20-year-old lefty who started this year in A+; he compiled that log against Seattle and the Yankees at home and against San Francisco on the road. You could speculate on him if already rebuilding, but as I don't expect him to continue his success, you should probably wait for more data before considering him if in contention. May Overachiever: Brett Tomko, RH Starter Old stats: 3-4 on 61:22 K:BB in 71 IP over 11 GS with 65 H, 11 HR, and a 3.42 ERA. Recommendation: acquire. Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 13:10 K:BB in 33 IP over 5 GS with 38 H, 2 HR, and a 4.36 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Matt DeWitt, RH Reliever San Francisco: Jay Witasick, RH Reliever 1-0 on 31:14 K:BB in 36.2 IP over 21 G with 24 H, 0 HR, and 47-34 G-F; 1.23 ERA. His conversion to relief last year netted the Padres D'Angelo Jimenez and then cost the Giants John Vander Wal to pick him up. The latter move seems like a very wise decision, since after struggling to some extent in the AL with New York, he's strongly rebounded as a key component of a bullpen that's remained quite effective despite losing top lefty Jason Christiansen and suffering through FRod's struggles. While Witasick has maintained his solid K:BB(2.2 '02; 1.8 career) and K/9(7.6 '02; 7.8 career), he's made excellent strikes in H/9(5.9 '02; 10.5 career) and HR/9(0.0 '02; 1.5 career). He hasn't seen a noticeable increase in G-F(1.38 '02; 1.30 career), so he's due to start allowing homers at some point, and therefore will see an ERA rise. I don't expect his value can rise much higher, especially since he's not first in line for saves, so if anyone's interested in him, feel free to deal Witasick for someone with more upside. May Overachiever: Chad Zerbe, LH Reliever Old stats: 1-0 on 11:11 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 11 G with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 3.44 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 1-0 on 5:3 K:BB in 13 IP over 10 G with 9 H, 0 HR, and a 2.08 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Kirk Rueter, LH Starter St. Louis: Jason Simontacchi, RH Starter 5-1 on 20:13 K:BB in 48 IP over 8 GS with 45 H, 6 HR, and 82-59 G-F; 3.00 ERA. The refugee from the Italian leagues has stormed the majors with a very impressive two-month run. We've picked him up in one league and been very pleased with the results, but we're very concerned about his immediate future. Only his secondary skills, with a 8.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and 1.39 G-F, appear within an acceptable range. His 1.5 K:BB and 3.8 K/9 indicate that he's not dominating hitters at all and could easily suffer a few disasters in the very near future. I suspect his value will decrease rather rapidly in the near future, only rebounding if his command improves, so start exploring a potential deal to a team that doesn't recognize the predictive value of pitching skills. May Overachiever: Luther Hackman, RH Reliever Old stats: 1-2 on 12:16 K:BB in 29 IP over 18 G with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 2.17 ERA. Recommendation: deal. Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 4:3 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 4 G with 7 H, 0 HR, and a 10.13 ERA. Previous Overachievers: April: Dave Veres, RH Reliever Internet Challenge Starters(6) Curt Schilling: Sun@CLE(Baez) Mike Mussina: Fri:NYM(D'Amico) Matt Morris: Sun:CIN(B.Chen) Kerry Wood: Fri:@CHW(D.Wright) Roy Oswalt: Fri:@TEX(Park) Eric Gagne: 3 Road at Anaheim. Brian Lawrence: Fri:@KC(Ascencio) No starts: Randy, Pedro, Clemens, Vazquez, Zito, . Relievers(4) Jason Isringhausen: 3 Home vs. Cincinnati. Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road at Cleveland. Mike Williams: 3 Road at Detroit. Eddie Guardado: 3 Home vs. Milwaukee. Jorge Julio: 3 Home vs. Philadelphia. Williams, Guardado, and Julio all look solid, and despite his disastrous week thus far, we'll pitch anyone against Cleveland right now. We're most concerned about Wood's start, and while we considered taking him over Oswalt, we prefer Houston's offense in Texas. Colorado's still on the road, so we'll sit as many Rockies as possible. However since we want all three top outfielders active, we'll deploy Juan Uribe, sitting J.D. Drew and Jimmy Rollins. We'd love to pull Durazo from the lineup, but we still haven't found a good combination that gives us the necessary cap flexibility. The Umpire Hunter Week 13b: June 28-June 30 C Jorge Posada 990 C A.J. Pierzynski 460 1B Jason Giambi 1640 1B Ryan Klesko 1300 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Alex Rodriguez 1880 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Sammy Sosa 1900 OF Vladimir Guerrero 1880 OF Ichiro Suzuki 1330 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF Adam Dunn 710 OF Daryle Ward 620 DH Barry Bonds 1830 DH Erubiel Durazo 440 SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Mike Mussina 1380 SP Matt Morris 1190 SP Roy Oswalt 830 SP Brian Lawrence 480 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Byung-Hyun Kim 1200 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750 Today's Fantasy Rx: Thursday is the last day for All-Star voting; here's our recommended ballot. Click here to vote. POS AL NL 1B J. Giambi T. Helton 2B A. Soriano J. Vidro 3B S. Hillenbrand M. Lowell SS A. Rodriguez J. Hernandez C J. Posada M. Piazza OF I. Suzuki B. Bonds OF M. Ramirez S. Sosa OF T. Hunter V. Guerrero Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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