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June 24th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko In looking over some of my recent articles, I apparently never described my system of evaluation. I'll include this with future columns on underachievers, overachievers, and month-to-month trends. Acquire: This player's current perceived value is likely less than his future value, particularly in the next several weeks. Wait: For overachievers, hold onto the player for at least a few more weeks since his stats should exceed his current value. For underachievers, keep them since they should at least perform above their perceived value at this time. Deal: If you find an acceptable offer, trade these players since their value is likely peaking; while they may return to this level in a couple of months, their perceived value likely won't increase.
Anaheim: Jose Nieves, IF He never showed many skills even when considered a prospect, and he's no longer a prospect at 27. Nieves' overachieves offensively just by staying on a major league roster. A horrendous BB:K(.08 '02; .22 career) and walk rate(.01 '02; .04 career), along with weak marks in #P/PA(3.61 '02; 3.48 career), contact rate(.83 '02; .80 career), and G-F(1.39 '02; 1.27 career), leave him with practically no relevant hitting skills. If you've accidentally picked up Nieves in the mistaken impression he can help your team, deal or cut him immediately and make any necessary correlative move to fill his roster spot.
May Overachiever: Orlando Palmeiro, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Garret Anderson, OF
He's already set a career high in steals while exceeding our SB projection for the year. While the development in BB:K(.63 '02; .49 career) and walk rate(.12 '02; .10 career) suggests he might exceed his .257 career BA for the year, he's barely above average in #P/PA(3.89 '02; 3.88 career) and contact rate(.81 '02; .80 career). However he's shown real power development this season, and his .87 career G-F camouflages yearly improvement, from a 2.50 G-F in 1999 to .98 and .79 in the following years and a .74 this season. As his value has dropped since April, you should likely wait as Mora should continue to produce for his likely low salary.
May Overachiever: Geronimo Gil, C Previous Overachievers: April: Marty Cordova, OF/DH
The return to the majors for the first time since 1999 of someone once considered at least equal to Roberto Alomar and his subsequent somewhat impressive performance rank is one of the more intriguing stories of the year. Unfortunately his skills remain quite weak, with depressed marks in BB:K(.42 '02; .49 career) and walk rate(.04 '02; .05 career), a barely maintained contact rate(.90 '02; .89 career), and career-worst numbers in #P/PA(3.13 '02; 3.34 career) and G-F(2.52 '02; 1.77 career). He's an interesting replacement for Rey Sanchez as a part-time starter, but Baerga offers little upside; only wait until Sanchez's return to cut Baerga if you're in a very deep league with limited alternatives.
May Overachiever: Brian Daubach, 1B/OF/DH Previous Overachievers: April: Shea Hillenbrand, 3B
Most of these stats are not that surprising considering we expected 40 homers and 116 RBI from him, but his BA is about 30 point north of where we suspected he'd finish the season. His impressive numbers appear mostly the result of a normal age-26 season rather than a new skill level, as we actually observe degradation of his BB:K(.50 '02; .59 career), walk rate(.06 '02; .09 career), and #P/PA(3.72 '02; 3.78 career). A slightly increased contact rate(.87 '02; .86 career) helps his development, but his 1.13 G-F continues a history of never wavering more than .14 from his 1.14 career average G-F. He'll still produce if you keep him, so while you could trade him for help elsewhere, you can also wait to accumulate more power numbers from Konerko.
May Overachiever: Tony Graffanino, IF Previous Overachievers: April: Kenny Lofton, OF
Anyone viewing him as a prospect should remember that he turns 28 in September. His last two years of MLEs depict a batter who struggles to exceed a .250 BA, and while he's displayed some plate discipline at times, he barely deserves a job on a major league bench. McDonald's BB:K(.15 '02; .09 career) and walk rate(.04 '02; .02 career) are quite horrible, and his #P/PA(3.68 '02; 3.78 career) is decreasing along with a contact rate(.71 '02; .79 career) deteriorating to uselessness. Only his G-F(.86 '02; 1.06 career) shows any promise, and since he's never exceeded a .376 SLG at any level over more than a few at-bats, look to deal McDonald immediately since his BA will drop as his playing time increases.
May Overachiever: Matt Lawton, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Omar Vizquel
Last year, Santiago posted a very impressive .90 BB:K and .13 walk rate for a 19-year-old, along with an intriguing 34/42 SB%; unfortunately he only managed a .331 SLG with his .361 OBP at A+ Lakeland in the Florida State League. Detroit allowed him to compile a .320 BA in all of 103 AB in AA and AAA combined before a promotion to Comerica despite a .38 BB:K and .06 walk rate. Nothing in his current skill set, including a .28 BB:K, .07 walk rate, 3.59 #P/PA, .76 contact rate, and 1.74 G-F, indicates he's prepared for the majors. Deal him now if you're contending this season.
May Overachiever: Wendell Magee, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Randall Simon, 1B/DH
Don't blink or you'll miss his career year. A .235 BA and .732 OPS might not appear impressive, but he's never exceeded a BA of .231 or a .637 OPS in more than a dozen at-bats prior to this season. While his walk rate(.09 '02; .08 career) is slightly improved and his #P/PA(3.60 '02; 3.77 career) has even slightly deteriorated, he's managing career-best marks in BB:K(.56 '02; .34 career), contact rate(.84 '02; .78 career), and G-F(.87 '02; 1.08 career), suggesting he'll maintain his power development and reach double-digit homers for the first time. However, due to his low BA, only acquire Hinch if you're desperate for power, can absorb a low BA, and need to upgrade at catcher.
May Overachiever: Michael Tucker, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Joe Randa, 3B
We expected more power and less BA, but the somewhat hidden skill regression from already troubling numbers suggests a bleak immediate future for Pierzynski. Although we don't regret owning him in Challenge due to his cost-effective production, we're not seeking him in our regular leagues. He's slightly slipped in BB:K(.29 '02; .30 career) and walk rate(.04 '02; .05 career) while maintaining a mostly unimpressive contact rate(.85 '02; .85 career). We're more worried by his vanishing #P/PA(3.08 '02; 3.43 career) and a .57 jump in his G-F(1.77 '02; 1.33 career) from last year's promising 1.20 mark. If you can improve your team in multiple other areas, consider a deal in about two weeks since Pierzynski's value should peak when he's likely selected for the All-Star game as the second-best catcher in the AL.
May Overachiever: Jacque Jones, OF Previous Overachievers: April: Torii Hunter
I'm proud of the Yankees for actively looking to sign someone solely to add veteran presence to their extremely young roster. His BB:K(.20 '02; .41 career) is awful, his walk rate(.03 '02; .06 career) dreadful, his #P/PA(3.46 '02; 3.43 career) unacceptable, and his contact rate(.84 '02; .86 career) mediocre at best; even his G-F(1.35 '02; 1.29 career) shows no promise. When analysts can compare your upside unfavorably with that of Herb Perry, you should be pleased with a bench role and shot at a ring. Deal Coomer before his production begins disappearing.
May Overachiever: Robin Ventura, 3B Previous Overachievers: April: Alfonso Soriano, 2B
The only truly surprising number here is the high BA as Tejada's never exceeded .275; with a falling BB:K(.39 '02; .49 career) and walk rate(05 '02; .09 career), I doubt he can maintain his current pace. However he's managed to increase his contact rate(.88 '02; .83 career) a significant amount, and if he continues to only strike out in 12% of his at-bats, he'll likely post a new career-high for average. With little change in his P/PA(3.74 '02; 3.74 career) or G-F(1.22 '02; 1.17 career), I also don't see the higher BA affecting his other skills or numbers, allowing Tejada to potentially keep over an extra $5 of roto value. You now can look to acquire Tejada even if you're weak in BA.
May Overachiever: Scott Hatteberg, UT Previous Overachievers: April: Jeremy Giambi, OF
I see no statistical basis for his BA surge this year, and a logical return closer to his .265 career norm will remove much of his current value. All of his skills, including his BB:K(.19 '02; .38 career), walk rate(.04 '02; .07 career), contact rate(.77 '02; .93 career), #P/PA(3.57 '02; 3.68 ), and G-F(1.27 '02; 1.05 career) are at their worst levels since his first year in Seattle back in 1994. His plummeting contact rate is even the worst full-season mark of his career. He won't maintain these career-highs in BA or OPS, so deal him now before his roto marketability begins decreasing.
May Overachiever: Mark McLemore, UT Previous Overachievers: April: Carlos Guillen, SS
After a largely wasted season in 2001 that included a .660 OPS over 411 AB, Huff returned to AAA to begin the season before a late May call-up. A 1.19 G-F is the most promising aspect of his resurgence, as he'd slipped to 2.04 last year after a 1.54 during his debut 2000 season; his #P/PA similarly bounced, jumping from 3.40 in 2000 to 3.62 last year before falling back to 3.40 in 2002. Hopefully he'll continue developing power according to those indicators. Substantive improvement in BB:K(.70 '02; .32 career), walk rate(.07 '02; .05 career), and contact rate(.89 '02; .83 career) also support the possibility of his BA remaining around .300. With improving skills and an apparently steady lineup role, look to acquire Huff for both 2002 contending teams and those rebuilding for next year.
May Overachiever: John Flaherty, C Previous Overachievers: April: Randy Winn, OF
Any smart organization would have moved Mench to AAA and then left him alone for at least half a season following his somewhat disappointing 2001 AA performance; the Rangers' treatment of Mench, Hank Blalock, Ryan Ludwick, and Jason Romano might have set back the development of all these prospects. However Mench has somehow exceeded all expectations by posting a Major League OPS 130 points greater than his performance at either AA Tulsa last year to AAA Oklahoma this season. Normally anyone with less than two years in the upper minors will struggle in the bigs, but anyone debuting with a 3.92 #P/PA and .70 G-F ratio could be a potentially dominant power hitter with steady, long-term improvement in a fairly respectable .63 K:BB, .13 walk rate, and .79 contact rate. Not only can Mench help now if he can find consistent playing time, but he's definitely someone to acquire for the future.
May Overachiever: Herb Perry, 3B Previous Overachievers: April: Hank Blalock, 3B
I'm somewhat surprised Toronto kept him instead of Ryan Freel, and now Woodward's receiving some consideration as a potential starting second baseman. Although Joe Lawrence flopped horribly as expected, three homers and a team-high four triples raise our opinion of Woodward. The sample size remains quite small for any thorough evaluation, but he's almost at an acceptable walk rate(.09 '02; .07 career) to go with noticeable development in #P/PA(3.89 '02; 3.69 career) and G-F(.79 '02; 1.06 career), the latter helping support his recent power display. While I remain concerned about his weak BB:K(.36 '02; .27 career) and contact rate(.76 '02; .75 career), I see just enough potential for me to recommend you wait a few weeks to see if this performance continues and his role expands before seeking to trade or replace Woodward.
May Overachiever: Tom Wilson, C Previous Overachievers: April: Eric Hinske, 3B
Our Recommended All-Star Ballot
POS AL NL 1B J. Giambi T. Helton 2B A. Soriano J. Vidro SS A. Rodriguez J. Hernandez 3B S. Hillenbrand M. Lowell C J. Posada M. Piazza OF I. Suzuki B. Bonds OF M. Ramirez S. Sosa OF T. Hunter V. Guerrero Jess will spend the next two days detailing these picks and rosters, but we wanted to list our recommended ballot here today since you have until Thursday, June 27th at 11:59 PM(EDT) to vote as many times as possible here. ("As many as times as possible" means as many friends and family members you can either convince to vote or let you vote for them, multiplied by twenty-five ballots per person. While the process will likely take up to an hour per person to submit all the votes, every vote certainly counts now with some starting positions very much in question. Please vote as often as your schedule (and the rules) allow.
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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