Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: I included the following paragraphs with yesterday's article; I copied them here for easy reference.

We don't have updated LPR rankings for this year yet since we've decided to modify our requirements and need to recompile our data.

For now, we'll announce that for the PQS points, we're going to require five starts to qualify for the alphabetical notation. We're also increasing the DOM requirement, as per the suggestion of BaseballHQ's John Burnson, to 55% since we agree that a greater focus on dominance can only aid our selection of pitchers.

Daily Rx Reader Jon Ratner e-mailed me over a month ago, and among a few other interesting ideas to which I may return in the future, suggested a label of dull (DUL) for 2 and 3 PQS scores. For each pitcher in today's list, I'll list the number of starts in each category.

Today I'll list pitchers that qualify for either "a", by posting a 4 or 5 PQS in 55% or more of their starts, or "x" by posting a 1 or 0 PQS in 20% or less of their starts. Within each category I'll rank pitchers first by most DOM starts, then least DIS starts, and finally by the most DUL starts; I'll also include their current stat line.

If anyone is unfamiliar with PQS, please explore Ron Shandler's site Baseball HQ; Ron developed PQS scores a few years ago as a way to measure starter consistency, and all of our LPR work largely builds upon his concepts. A Baseball HQ subscription and Ron's annual Baseball Forecaster are probably the two best values for those seeking reasonably-priced, quality fantasy baseball analysis.

You can also check out my March 12th column for the original LPR description.

NL LPR DOM/DUL/DIS through May 3rd:

ax

Curt Schilling, 7/0/0: 6-1 on 75:7 K:BB in 51 IP with 40 H, 7 HR, and 40-46 G-F; 3.18 ERA.

Randy Johnson, 6/0/0: 6-0 on 61:11 K:BB in 46 IP with 28 H, 2 HR, and 66-23 G-F; 1.37 ERA.

Odalis Perez, 6/0/0: 3-1 on 30:3 K:BB in 46.1 IP with 25 H, 3 HR, and 72-40 G-F; 1.75 ERA.

"One of these pitchers is not like the others…" Schilling and Johnson remain the true most reliable starters in baseball, but Odalis Perez has rattled off six straight 4 starts. He'd be a welcome addition to any rotation, and we'd likely pick him up for Challenge in two weeks if he didn't have two road starts, including one in Coors.

Tom Glavine, 5/2/0: 5-1 on 35:12 K:BB in 48.1 IP with 34 H, 2 HR, and 54-56 G-F; 0.93 ERA.

Pedro Astacio, 5/1/0: 5-1 on 34:10 K:BB in 42 IP with 37 H, 5 HR, and 54-48 G-F; 2.57 ERA.

Josh Beckett, 5/1/0: 0-2 on 32:10 K:BB in 30.2 IP with 27 H, 4 HR, and 25-36 G-F; 3.52 ERA.

Vicente Padilla, 5/1/0: 3-2 on 39:11 K:BB in 41 IP with 29 H, 3 HR, and 60-29 G-F; 2.42 ERA.

Glendon Rusch, 5/1/0: 1-2 on 33:10 K:BB in 43 IP with 31 H, 4 HR, and 61-40 G-F; 2.51 ERA.

Javier Vazquez, 5/1/0: 1-1 on 29:4 K:BB in 44 IP with 38 H, 4 HR, and 57-55 G-F; 2.86 ERA.

Glavine's pitched one more game than the others, but all six of these are worthy members of the second tier of NL starters. I actually prefer Astacio, Padilla, Rusch, and Vazquez to the other two because of their superior G-F numbers and likely greater upside. Vazquez is a fantastic target at the moment due to his single win, and Rusch might be better since he also owns better H/9 and G-F ratios, and most owners don't look that deep into the stats.

Al Leiter, 5/0/1: 3-1 on 32:9 K:BB in 39 IP with 23 H, 1 HR, and 60-31 G-F; 0.92 ERA.

John Thomson, 5/0/1: 4-2 on 28:7 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 35 H, 3 HR, and 32-56 G-F; 4.46 ERA.

I probably should give Leiter more credit since he's consistently performed at this high level for the last few years, albeit without the sub-1.00 ERA. Thomson's really grown on us after a great second half last season and very promising April, although his G-F bodes badly if Coors returns to it's formerly run-happy ways this summer.

Matt Morris, 4/3/0: 4-2 on 41:13 K:BB in 47 IP with 45 H, 5 HR, and 66-46 G-F; 3.06 ERA.

Tony Armas, 4/2/0: 4-2 on 33:17 K:BB in 38 IP with 30 H, 5 HR, and 56-32 G-F; 3.55 ERA.

Joey Hamilton, 4/2/0: 2-1 on 26:22 K:BB in 37.1 IP with 37 H, 1 HR, and 73-26 G-F; 2.65 ERA.

Brian Lawrence, 4/2/0: 3-1 on 19:8 K:BB in 42.2 IP with 34 H, 2 HR, and 88-35 G-F; 2.11 ERA.

Roy Oswalt, 4/2/0: 3-1 on 37:9 K:BB in 40 IP with 42 H, 2 HR, and 50-42 G-F; 2.70 ERA.

Jeff D'Amico, 4/1/0: 2-1 on 24:5 K:BB in 33.2 IP with 29 H, 3 HR, and 37-42 G-F; 2.94 ERA.

Kazuhisa Ishii, 4/1/0: 5-0 on 24:13 K:BB in 29.2 IP with 22 H, 1 HR, and 32-24 G-F; 3.03 ERA.

Darryl Kile, 4/1/0: 1-1 on 20:10 K:BB in 30 IP with 25 H, 2 HR, and 36-36 G-F; 3.60 ERA.

Damian Moss, 4/1/0: 0-0 on 22:15 K:BB in 31 IP over 6 G with 15 H, 5 HR, and 41-32 G-F; 2.61 ERA.

Morris, Oswalt, and Kile are the established prizes here, but they'll all cost plenty in trade. Armas, Lawrence, and Ishii seem quite reliable and all possess skill histories that suggest they can maintain numbers at least close to their current levels throughout the season. Hamilton is not worth your time due to his poor K:BB unless you're desperate for starts, D'Amico could excel as long as he stays healthy but remains a risk, and Moss's rotation spot is uncertain despite his seven-inning no-hitter last night.

Elmer Dessens, 4/1/1: 1-3 on 20:12 K:BB in 37 IP with 32 H, 3 HR, and 50-44 G-F; 1.95 ERA.

Hideo Nomo, 4/1/1: 2-4 on 32:20 K:BB in 38.2 IP with 25 H, 4 HR, and 38-47 G-F; 2.56 ERA.

We'll continue to start them regularly where we currently own them, but we'll need to monitor the weak K:BB.

Andy Ashby, 3/3/0: 2-2 on 28:19 K:BB in 37 IP with 25 H, 2 HR, and 59-33 G-F; 3.16 ERA.

A.J. Burnett, 3/3/0: 4-2 on 39:18 K:BB in 42.2 IP with 29 H, 3 HR, and 43-49 G-F; 2.11 ERA.

Ryan Dempster, 3/3/0: 0-3 on 28:16 K:BB in 42.2 IP with 42 H, 6 HR, and 52-53 G-F; 4.22 ERA.

Brett Tomko, 3/3/0: 2-2 on 31:13 K:BB in 39.2 IP with 30 H, 6 HR, and 42-27 G-F; 2.50 ERA.

Matt Clement, 3/2/0: 1-2 on 40:11 K:BB in 31 IP with 29 H, 2 HR, and 37-22 G-F; 3.77 ERA.

Jon Lieber, 3/2/0: 3-1 on 17:3 K:BB in 34 IP with 26 H, 2 HR, and 45-45 G-F; 2.38 ERA.

Denny Neagle, 3/2/0: 3-1 on 24:12 K:BB in 36.2 IP with 34 H, 7 HR, and 43-49 G-F; 4.42 ERA.

Ashby and Dempster both appear quite unreliable, although you shouldn't rush to complete any deal since they both should have decent trade value. I wish Burnett had a slightly higher G-F ratio, but the rest of his stats are great. Tomko and Clement are finally fulfilling their respective potential as former top prospects in the mid-90's, and I suspect both are still relatively undervalued in most leagues; pursue them with vigor especially in 5x5 leagues. Lieber's racked up a lot of IP the last few years so could be a burnout risk; Neagle's pitching okay but will still suffer semi-regular bombings in Colorado.

Brandon Duckworth, 3/2/1/: 2-2 on 42:13 K:BB in 32 IP with 34 H, 4 HR, and 33-32 G-F; 5.06 ERA.

Nick Neugebauer, 3/2/1: 1-3 on 26:21 K:BB in 30.1 IP with 26 H, 5 HR, and 38-32 G-F; 4.15 ERA.

Tomo Ohka, 3/2/1: 3-2 on 18:8 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 27 H, 3 HR, and 39-24 G-F; 3.86 ERA.

Dave Williams, 3/1/1: 2-3 on 18:13 K:BB in 26.2 IP with 20 H, 6 HR, and 35-28 G-F; 5.40 ERA.

Ohka and Duckworth are relatively safe gambles while Williams doesn't offer substantial upside. Neugebauer is one the highest-upside/highest-risk pitchers in organized baseball, and as always, he needs to control his walks to pitch effectively.

a

Kevin Millwood, 4/1/2: 2-3 on 31:12 K:BB in 40 IP with 39 H, 4 HR, and 52-44 G-F; 4.28 ERA.

Shawn Estes, 3/1/2: 1-3 on 31:15 K:BB in 37 IP with 35 H, 4 HR, and 47-39 G-F; 4.38 ERA.

Dave Mlicki, 3/1/2: 3-3 on 20:8 K:BB in 37.1 IP with 36 H, 5 HR, and 54-54 G-F; 3.38 ERA.

Ben Sheets, 3/1/2: 1-3 on 27:14 K:BB in 30.1 IP with 40 H, 2 HR, and 48-27 G-F; 4.75 ERA.

Kip Wells, 3/1/2: 4-1 on 20:16 K:BB in 32 IP with 33 H, 4 HR, and 59-27 G-F; 4.50 ERA.

Aside from Mlicki, all four offer substantial upside against high risk. Millwood could still be a future Atlanta stud and all his current ratios looks very promising; consider him potentially undervalued after the last two years of underachievement. Estes' 2002 skill ratios outweigh my long-term concerns about his ability, making him another solid target. Some scouts still consider Sheets and Wells potential aces despite significant inconsistency above the lower minors; I think both can mature into #2 pitchers but remain roto risks. I don't like Mlicki in shallow leagues but might spot start him in deeper NL leagues.

x

Livan Hernandez, 4-2 on 20:8 K:BB in 47 IP with 39 H, 4 HR, and 2/4/0: 69-47 G-F; 1.47 ERA

Russ Ortiz, 2/4/0: 2-1 on 20:15 K:BB in 38.2 IP with 32 H, 5 HR, and 59-36 G-F; 2.78 ERA.

Carl Pavano, 2/4/0: 2-3 on 29:15 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 51 H, 5 HR, 56-46 G-F; 5.20 ERA.

Robert Person, 2/4/0: 0-3 on 22:15 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 29 H, 6 HR, and 35-55 G-F; 5.45 ERA.

Kirk Rueter, 2/4/0: 4-1 on 14:11 K:BB in 41.1 IP with 30 H, 3 HR, and 51-57 G-F; 1.74 ERA.

Josh Fogg, 2/3/0: 3-1 on 22:8 K:BB in 30.2 IP with 28 H, 3 HR, and 41-32 G-F; 2.35 ERA.

Three Giants have shown little ability to dominate thus far, and you should look into moving Ortiz and Rueter due to their weak K:BB ratios. Fogg strikes me as the potential prize over the other two due to his superior ratios almost across the board. Person may not make it off the DL this year considering his relatively heavy workload in recent years, and Pavano falls into the high-risk, high-upside category as he still needs to prove his worth.

Shawn Chacon, 2/3/1: 2-4 on 24:21 K:BB in 33.1 IP with 33 H, 7 HR, and 45-42 G-F; 5.94 ERA.

Rick Helling, 2/3/1: 3-3 on 24:9 K:BB in 31.1 IP with 40 H, 9 HR, and 44-46 G-F; 7.47 ERA.

Shane Reynolds, 2/3/1: 2-3 on 24:13 K:BB in 38 IP with 42 H, 6 HR, and 67-32 G-F; 4.50 ERA.

Kerry Wood, 2/3/1: 3-2 on 34:27 K:BB in 34 IP with 24 H, 0 HR, and 34-31 G-F; 3.18 ERA.

While he probably should be on the first list, Kerry's significant control problems force us to consider dropping him in Challenge unless he practically aces his 2-start week next week with nothing worse than two 4s. Chacon's walk rate in Colorado makes him unownable for now, though Helling and Reynolds remain options if you can stomach the ever-present homer risk. We occasionally deploy both in one of our deepest NL leagues since we trust their basic skill sets.

Bobby J. Jones 1/4/0: 3-1 on 19:7 K:BB in 31 IP with 32 H, 6 HR, and 42-35 G-F; 3.48 ERA.

Terry Adams, 1/3/1: 0-3 on 18:12 K:BB in 29.1 IP with 34 H, 2 HR, and 54-24 G-F; 3.99 ERA.

Jason Jennings, 1/3/1: 2-2 on 16:7 K:BB in 27 IP with 29 H, 5 HR, and 47-24 G-F; 3.67 ERA.

High-risk, relatively low-upside pitchers, although Jones and Adams appear relatively safe plays at the moment. Jennings may emerge as our second recommendation among Colorado pitchers if he avoids further disasters in the near future.

Due to the small sample size, the only pitchers not on this list are either those who haven't been in the rotation all season, or those starters that have pitched rather poorly. I doubt there are many compelling reasons to acquire any pitcher not on this list who's already made five or more starts.

Five teams netted four starters on this list, and while neither Los Angeles(Perez, Ishii, Nomo, Ashby) nor New York(Astacio, Leiter, D'Amico, Estes) should surprise anyone, Philadelphia(Padilla, Duckworth, Person, Adams) made the list without Randy Wolf, who's also guaranteed to make it regardless of his next start as either an ax or x. However, few people would likely suspect Colorado(Thomson, Neagle, Chacon, Jennings) and Montreal(Vazquez, Armas, Ohka, Pavano) to show this much rotation depth, especially since the former team lacks Hampton(0/4/2). LA technically has a fifth starter on the list between Brown(2/0/2) and Daal(2/0/0). More shocking is that all five rotation slots, even including the usually unimpressive Andy Ashby, have qualified for the 'a' list, and everyone but Brown/Daal are on 'ax'.

Today's Fantasy Rx: With the demotion of Esteban Yan and Hal McRae's announcement of a closing committee in Tampa Bay, followed by Colome's disaster last night, many owners will be scrounging for both Yan replacements and the next Tampa closer. Yan's G-F has plummeted from 1.49 last year to .58 this season, but ignoring his April 25th outing against Minnesota, he's at least pitched acceptably with 4 saves on 6:3 K:BB in 11.1 IP with 8 H, 1 HR, and a 3.18 ERA. He currently holds a 7:5 K:BB in 12.1 IP with 12 H and 2 HR, along with a 5.48 ERA that must be scaring McRae. Travis Harper owns the best line in the pen at 4:1 K:BB in 3 IP with 3 H and 1 HR, but no Tampa reliever with more than 3 IP has a better line than Steve Kent's rather weak 9:5 K:BB in 13 IP with 15 H and 1 HR; you also don't want a Rule 5 LHP straight out of A-ball to close. Zambrano and Colome have great upside but both have shown little command or control this season, and with Travis Phelps continuing to struggle in the minors, stick with Yan. I just don't see another viable option, and feel free to pick him up from any owners with Angelosesque impatience with their players.