Today's Fantasy Rx

Note: My main concern for these pitchers will be examining those with weak ERAs.

Arizona: Rick Helling, RH Starter
2-2 on 18:8 K:BB in 23 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 6 HR, and 28-30 G-F; 6.26 ERA.

We knew Helling might continue to have home run problems in the NL but we still expected him to emerge as a very solid third option after Randy and Schilling. His numbers are somewhat disappointing although he has faced decent competition in St. Louis, San Diego, Colorado, and Milwaukee.

With a 3432 PQS log to date, he's definitely showing some skill but lacks any real semblance of domination. His 2.3 K:BB thus far is right in line with last year's 2.4, both nice improvements over his 1.8 career mark. He's nicely upgraded his K/9 to 7.0 from a 6.2 career rate, and a 9.8 H/9 is relatively close to his 9.2 average. Helling is even posting his best G-F ratio in several years at 0.93, a welcome jump from his .66 norm, so his 2.3 HR/9 is rather surprising considering he's usually around 1.5. After facing Maddux in Atlanta tonight, Helling should face New York next Thursday, followed by Pittsburgh twice, and then Philadelphia. None of these teams pose significant offensive threats as only Philadelphia ranks in the top half of NL offenses. Arizona is second in runs scored, making Helling a very attractive target for you to acquire; he could rattle off at least a few wins as long as he can control the longball.

Atlanta: John Smoltz, RH Closer
7 Saves on 14:4 K:BB in 12.2 IP over 11 G with 14 H, 1 HR, and 14-14 G-F; 6.40 ERA.

We expected Smoltz to earn the second highest roto value among NL closers this year as he gave the Braves their first truly dominant yet controlled closer since Mark Wohlers a few years ago. This ERA is rather annoying as he'll need a dozen near-perfect innings to bring it down to an acceptable level.

I'm not going to focus on his statistics since you can see that aside from a slightly high hit rate, the rest of his numbers are great. If we remove his awful April 6th outing from his record, here's his stat line:

7 Saves on 12:2 K:BB in 12 IP over 10 G with 8 H, 1 HR, and 12-12 G-F; .75 ERA.

We expect him to continue along these lines for the rest of the year, and if by some chance his current owner is dissatisfied with his ERA and isn't aware of that hiccup in his game log, please take advantage of that oversight and acquire Smoltz for your bullpen.

Chicago Cubs: Jason Bere, RH Starter
1-2 on 13:9 K:BB in 17.1 IP over 4 GS with 20 H, 2 HR, and 24-22 G-F; 7.27 ERA.

While we knew Bere had no place in the Cubs' system past this year since he's a free agent and they need room in the rotation for Mark Prior and probably Carlos Zambrano, this start is disappointing considering his remarkable 2001. We'd hoped the Cubs would at least be able to pick up a decent lower-level prospect for Bere, but he's now failed to make it past the third inning his last two starts after a great opening but only a fair follow-up.

Bere's PQS log this year is 5400, and while he still possesses the talent necessary to put together a great year, he's now had two incredibly bad games against Montreal and San Francisco. While his 1.4 K:BB matches his 1.4 career K:BB, he's significantly off his 2.3 K:BB pace from last year. His K/9 are off 7.5 to 6.8 and his 8.9 H/9 is slightly elevated over his 8.8 career mark. Fortunately his 1.0 HR/9 is down from his 1.2 average, and his 1.09 G-F is better than both his .96 from last year and his .92 career norm. With his next two starts against Los Angeles followed by St. Louis and Pittsburgh, I think Bere has a good chance to return to the dominance of his first two starts although I remain concerned about his weak K:BB. Wait to see his next couple starts, but if he blows up even one more time, feel free to see if another owner might want his strikeout potential.

Cincinnati: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever
1-0 on 13:8 K:BB in 7 IP over 7 G with 6 H, 0 HR, and 3-4 G-F; 6.43 ERA.

The 1999 National League Rookie of the Year has struggled back from arm surgery and will likely be either starting or closing by next season. He needs to spend at least the first half of 2002 in the bullpen regaining his arm strength, and he's compiled a rather interesting stat line so far.

Williamson is averaging two baserunners and nearly two strikeouts every inning, and the order of those events has contributed to his ERA problems. He's only had one perfect appearance this year, when he managed to strike out three straight Expos back on April 5th. His 16.8 K/9 ranks with the best pitchers in the majors and is a nice improvement on an already sweet 10.8 career mark. The problem is really those extra couple of walks, which have dropped his K:BB down to 1.6 this year from his 2 K:BB career average. His hit rate is up to 7.7 H/9 from 6.5, and a historical .6 HR/9 ratio supports his perfect 2002 to date. I'm not concerned about his .75 G-F because of the very small sample size, and although he normally only breaks even, he's not really allowing many balls in play. While I don't know why he's re-emerged as one of the most dominant pitchers around, I see a lot more upside here than downside, so you should definitely look to acquire him, at least in 5x5 leagues.

Colorado: John Thomson, RH Starter
2-2 on 15:5 K:BB in 22 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 3 HR, and 22-32 G-F; 6.14 ERA.

While I certainly could join the Hampton-bashing club, I'm more worried about Thomson's recent troubles. He had a simply awful start against Arizona his last time out that really hurt his stat line, although I still believe he'll manage to post positive roto value this year.

With a 4440 PQS log to date, he's continuing to demonstrate the potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. His 3 K:BB is a great improvement over an already acceptable 2.0 career mark, and he's brought his strikeout rate to 6.1 K/9 from his average 5.9. A 10.6 H/9 is a little over his 10.0 norm, and his 1.2 HR/9 is right on his 1.2 career mark. The troubling point in this data set is his sudden flyout tendency as his .69 G-F is way off his 1.36 career average. He's gotten quite lucky in his two Coors' starts to only give up one homer in each, although fortunately three of his next four starts are on the road, and then he's only scheduled for two home starts before three more road starts in a row. A slight change in the Rockies' rotation could leave him with a few more home starts, but Thomson appears a fairly interesting gamble right now with significant upside; we're examining the possibilities to acquire him in leagues where we can reserve him when he's at home since his 2-start weeks could be fairly valuable.

Florida: Brad Penny
2-1 on 9:14 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS with 26 H, 3 HR, and 38-34 G-F; 4.38 ERA.

Although several Florida pitchers have struggled this year, we expected Penny to emerge as their probable ace. Instead he's luckily managed a 2-1 record, and Florida will need improvement quickly if they're to surprise most people by staying in the race.

Unfortunately Penny's skills don't support a dramatic step up to ace status. A 3022 PQS log to date shows little of last year's promise while forcing us to look at his rather high workload over the last couple of years, especially considering that he's only 23 right now. He's been ill and is undergoing blood tests to determine the cause of his recent sickness, but his statistics are very worrisome. His K:BB(.6 '02; 1.89 career) is simply atrocious, and his K/9(3.3 '02; 6.3 career), H/9(9.5 '02; 8.5 career), and HR/9(1.1 '02; .8 career) are off his career marks by noticeable amounts. A drop in his G-F to 1.12 from 1.5 last year and 1.38 in his career support the increased homer rate, but the disappearance of his dominance and command is very troubling. Considering his potential medical problems, the overall state of the Marlins, and his performance to date, deal Penny now before you lose him for the season.

Houston: Billy Wagner, LH Closer
2 Saves on 8:2 K:BB in 8.1 IP over 8 G with 9 H, 1 HR, and 12-8 G-F; 5.40 ERA.

With Wade Miller on the DL and arm problems possibly explaining his slow start, Wagner owns the next rather shocking ERA on the Astros. Wagner's had some rather surprising difficulties this year despite relatively acceptable stats.

A mere 8.6 K/9 is troubling compared to his 13.0 career K/9 even though his K:BB has improved(4 '02; 3.4 career). His H/9(9.7 '02; 6.1 career) and HR/9(1.1 '02; .9 career) difficulties are also worrisome, especially as he's posting a career-best 1.5 G-F, a significant improvement over his 1.06 career average. I can't recommend him due to the strikeout and hit rate abnormalities, but you certainly should at least wait to see if he improves before taking any other action.

Los Angeles: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever
0-2 on 10:4 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 12 G with 14 H, 0 HR, and 24-7 G-F; 5.56 ERA.

With Chad Ricketts' demotion at the end of Spring Training and the struggles of both the major league pitchers involved, Los Angeles appears to be winning their trade with Toronto on the basis of Izturis' success alone. Quantrill was expected to perhaps even close for the Dodgers, but Gagne's emergence has relegated him to strict middle relief where he's given up runs in a third of his appearances.

Aside from a bad week in early April, Quantrill's pitched fairly well. His K:BB(2.5 '02; 2.1 career) and K/9(7.9 '02; 5.4 career) are both significant improvements on his career averages, and his H/9(11.1 '02; 10.4 career) is only a little worse than normal. The most positive sign here is his HR/9(0 '02; .9 career), and an incredible 3.43 G-F, which is better than double his career 1.70 G-F average. I don't see any reason for his weak ERA other than early bad luck, so expect him to pitch relatively great for the next few months, and certainly look to acquire him if you need a decent middle reliever.

Milwaukee: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter
1-2 on 15:16 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 4 GS with 15 H, 4 HR, and 24-20 G-F; 5.40 ERA.

Most of the Brewers are actually pitching according to our expectations aside from Quevedo's command problems and Neugebauer's struggles. After a very promising 2001 where he finally reduced his walk rate down to 3.9 MLE BB/9, his control problems have returned to wreck havoc on our ratio.

A 3042 PQS log to date shows his inconsistency this year as he's accumulating 90+ pitches by the fifth inning in his starts. His 1.20 G-F offers promise, as does his 7.4 K/9 even if he's never posted a year-long MLE K/9 below 9.2. He's allowing almost two baserunners per inning without the strikeout rate of Scott Williamson, and Nuke just doesn't appear ready for the majors at the moment. Pitching coach Dave Stewart needs to work on his control immediately if they want to keep him in the majors this year. You should probably reserve Neugebauer if possible and otherwise look to deal him to a likely rebuilding team as he'll likely struggle to earn positive roto value for most of the season.

Montreal: Britt Reames, RH Reliever
0-0 on 13:3 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 11 G with 14 H, 1 HR, and 16-10 G-F; 6.75 ERA.

Reames is another reliever who struggled at the beginning of the year and has been quite good since his first two appearances. To examine his recent performance, here's his stat line without those first two games:

8:1 K:BB in 9 IP over 9 G with 10 H, 0 HR, and 12-9 G-F; 4.76 ERA.

Perhaps he's not quite been closer material, but his command and control have been amazing, and he picked up holds in his last two appearances. Looking at his skill history only as a reliever, he's managed a fantastic K:BB(4.3 '02; 4.0 '01) and K/9(11.0 '02; 10.5 '01) with a moderately acceptable H/9(11.9 '02; 9.3 '01) and improving HR/9(.8 '02; 1.5 '01). His 2002 1.60 G-F is right between his 1.65 '01 and 1.50 career marks, so while he needs to develop more consistency, he certainly seems prepared for work in the late innings. I consider him one of the top closer candidates in the National League and would be happy to acquire him in almost any league.

New York Mets: Kane Davis, RH Reliever
0-0 on 14:5 K:BB in 7.1 IP over 9 G with 7 H, 1 HR, and 6-4 G-F; 4.91 ERA.

With a staff filled almost entirely with success stories, I won't review Shawn Estes now as I expected his difficulties. Davis' qualitative numbers seem to differ most from his skills, and I want to see if he's posted a great strikeout rate in an earlier season.

Like Williamson, Davis' small sample size of balls in play makes his 1.50 G-F ratio a little less impressive, although while it's the worst number of his career, it's still close to his 1.62 average. The shock here is his fantastic 17.2 K/9, especially considering his best mark prior to this year at any level was a 12.6 over only 5 IP in 4 appearances at Colorado Springs last year. A 2.8 K:BB is also significantly ahead of his previous major league marks, and I see little wrong with either an 8.6 H/9 or 1.2 HR/9. If you need a middle reliever to keep your ERA and WHIP at decent levels while potentially really helping in strikeouts, Davis is another solid pitcher to acquire.

Philadelphia: Randy Wolf, LH Start
1-0 on 16:6 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 3 GS with 13 H, 2 HR, and 14-17 G-F; 6.89 ERA.

Wolf started the year on the DL with tendinitis in his shoulder and the Phillies were able to bring him back slowly due to their rotation depth. He still has tremendous potential, but these early numbers are a little troubling.

A 443 PQS log shows that he's been pitching great despite a reduced maximum pitch count due to his arm problems. He hasn't broken 100 pitches so far, but he also hasn't made it past the 6th inning. Fortunately he's making solid progress in K:BB(2.7 '02; 2.1 career), K/9(9.2 '02; 7.9 career), and H/9(7.5 '02; 8.9 career). His HR/9 rate has stayed right at 1.1 even though he hasn't shown much development in G-F ratio; his career mark is .78, with .71 in '99, .82 in '00, .78 in '01, and back to .82 this year. I'd be more comfortable with Wolf as a potential ace if this metric was higher and Francona hadn't overworked him, but he's still a great starter to acquire if you don't mind the injury risk.

Pittsburgh: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever
1-0 on 17:9 K:BB in 11.2 IP over 8 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and 14-11 G-F; 7.17 ERA.

Considering that the Pirates' strength has been pitching and defense instead of offense, and we didn't expect any particularly great pitching performances here, only Lowe has really pitched worse than our expectations. He's bounced between starting and relieving for the last couple of years but appears to be settling into the bullpen.

The shock here is his fantastic dominance of 13.1 K/9 when his career relief K/9 is only 5.8. Unfortunately he's mirrored this jump with one in his BB/9, so he's only maintaining a 1.9 K:BB; while superior to his 1.4 career relief mark, it's still fairly low considering his strikeout improvement. His H/9(9.3 '02; 8.8 career relief) is only slightly off, and he's yet to allow a homer despite a career .9 HR/9 in relief. He's also lost last year's gains in G-F as he's back down to only 1.27, decently below his career 1.46 mark. Lowe has offered a nice benefit in 5x5 leagues to those lucky enough to own him thus far, but none of his other skills are overly impressive; you can continue to wait for more ERA improvement if you own him, I have no intention of attempting to acquire him.

San Diego: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter
0-3 on 11:9 K:BB in 23.2 IP over 5 GS with 39 H, 6 HR, and 34-41 G-F; 9.51 ERA.

Anyone who's confused San Diego's two starting Brians in the past is likely suffering in ERA and WHIP at the moment. Few people expected this complete meltdown from a pitcher with consistently solid command.

A 04210 PQS log seems fairly disastrous, and his actual ratios are even worse. A low K/9(4.2 '02; 5.5 career) rate continues to fall while his K:BB(1.2 '02; 2.3 career) has been almost cut in half. An accompanying rise in H/9(14.8 '02; 10.4 career) and a reversal of his K:BB in HR/9(2.3 '02; 1.2 career) has left him as one of the worst NL pitchers this year, leaving all of his owners in potentially desperate situations. Even his G-F, after improving to 1.34 last year from his 1.20 career mark, has fallen down to 0.83, and until he can harness his homer and control problems, he's really not ownable. Deal him at your first opportunity, or else reserve or even drop him if you have the option available to you.

San Francisco: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever
1-1 on 4:5 K:BB in 8.0 IP over 6 G with 9 H, 1 HR, and 11-15 G-F; 9.00 ERA.

With a team ERA below 2 for much of the first half of this month and great performances from all their starters, the weak San Francisco lefty relievers have been mostly ignored. I expected Fultz to be a solid low-risk middle relief option in most leagues, and these current stats are quite disappointing.

Almost of his skill ratios are off his career marks with only his HR/9(1.1 '02 1.1 career) staying at an acceptable level. Disasters in his K:BB(.8 '02; 2.5 career), K/9(4.5 '02; 8.1 career), and G-F(.73 '02; 1.26 career) have left him useless for roto purposes, and even a decent H/9(10.1 '02; 8.9 career) doesn't help this problem. Deal Fultz if anyone's even mildly interested, and find a replacement soon if they're not.

St. Louis: Bud Smith
0-2 on 5:5 K:BB in 14.2 IP over 3 GS with 18 H, 2 HR, and 26-20 G-F; 6.14 ERA.

We expected a dreadful year from Andy Benes and also lacked much faith in Garrett Stephenson, but Bud's struggles have been a surprise. Now that he's potentially suffering from an injury, we're growing quite concerned about his workload over the past few years.

Maybe he just lost his confidence after a completely unwarranted demotion at the end of Spring Training, but a 310 PQS log looks very bad for his immediate prospects. His K:BB(1.0 '02; 2.5 '02) and K/9(3.1 '02; 6.3 '01) are barely echoes of his 2001 debut, and he's allowing way too many hits at 11.0 H/9 compared to only 8.4 last year. The only bright spots keeping his ERA even this low are an improving HR/9(1.2 '02; 1.3 '01) and G-F(1.30 '02; 1.16 '01), although keeping the ball in the park doesn't really matter when he's allowing this many baserunners without striking almost anyone out. Look to deal him if you're also worried about his workload, but otherwise wait to see if he can regain his 2001 form.

I hope you've found the last few days useful. Next week I plan to discuss 2002 overachievers in a similar manner, although I expect to revisit both these subjects once a month during the season. I'm certainly open to any suggestions you may have regarding this format. We have already received one complaint about Tuesday's NL Underperforming Batters from a reader unhappy with the fact that I did not advise more active measures with most of the players.

The season is still young and drastic changes at this point generally are unwise. I would be negligent if I made extreme recommendations simply to appear more decisive.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I apologize that I won't be able to review the MLB Home Team Challenge before the first period begins tomorrow, but I'll certainly review the game before the pay periods begin on May 10th. Anyone interested should just experiment with their lineup over the next two weeks to familiarize themselves with the contest. The selection deadline for the first period is tomorrow at 1pm EDT (Friday, April 26th). To make the Postseason Challenge and gain eligibility for the grand prize pair of season tickets, you only need to beat everyone on one of the team sites for one of the five periods of the game, so while there's certainly an advantage to playing now, don't worry if you start slowly.