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March
25th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
AL Pitching Projections
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4 and 5x5 leagues here; this file also includes complete AL LPR values as discussed in last week's articles. We will add our AL batter projections to this file tomorrow after we finish reviewing them in consideration of recent moves.


Below is our projected Draft Value for the 224 American League pitchers whom we expect to see in the majors this season. While we've undoubtedly missed a few dozen players, we've included everyone who we believe has any chance of deserving a nomination in your spring draft.

These Draft Values are intended only for AL-only 12 team leagues, using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring, with $260 of cap space to draft 9 pitchers on a 23 man roster. We've also used the traditional 65/35 split as we believe some value should be shifted back to pitching this year. Based on last year's TQStats data, we selected a 4.95 ERA and 1.471 WHIP for the baseline values necessary to calculate the Category Dollars in each category.


When I've listed two values, the first is the 4x4 Draft Value and the second is the 5x5 Draft Value.

Top 3 4x4 AL Starters: Mike Mussina, $29; Cory Lidle, $23; Barry Zito, $22.

Top 3 4x4 AL Relievers: Keith Foulke, $33; Mariano Rivera, $33; Kazuhiro Sasaki $30.


Top 3 5x5 AL Starters: Mike Mussina, $30; Barry Zito, $23; Pedro Martinez, $22.

Top 3 5x5 AL Relievers: Keith Foulke, $30; Mariano Rivera, $29; Ugueth Urbina, $27.


Best AL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to exceed their DV: Ted Lilly, $-1/0; Casey Fossum, $3/3, J.C. Romero, $-1/0.

Best all-around starting pitcher sleepers: Cory Lidle, $23/21; Danys Baez, $19/20; Chan Ho Park, $18/20; Kevin Appier, $18/19; Joel Pineiro, $18/18.


Best AL Saves Sleepers: Jack Cressend, $14/13; David Riske, $4/5; Antonio Osuna, $2/2.

AL Relievers most likely to exceed 10 vultured Wins: Shigetoshi Hasegawa, $8/7; Todd Van Poppel, $6/6; Steve Karsay, $4/5.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Steve Karsay, $4/5; Paul Shuey, $3/3; Mike Stanton, $1/2.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Arthur Rhodes, $12/12; Buddy Groom, $9/8; Jim Mecir, $3/3; Travis Phelps, $2/3.


Rotohelp.com's 2002 AL Pitcher Projected Draft Values

Pitcher			4x4		5x5
Abbott, Paul		3		4
Acevedo, Juan		-3		-3
Affeldt, Jeremy		0		-1
Alvarez, Wilson		-3		-3
Anderson, Matt		26		23
Appier, Kevin		18		19
Arrojo, Rolando		6		6
Ascencio, Miguel	-3		-3
Baez, Danys		19		20
Bailey, Cory		2		3
Baldwin, James		4		6
Bale, John		0		0
Banks, Willie		-2		-3
Barcelo, Lorenzo	3		2
Bauer, Rick		-1		-1
Biddle, Rocky		-2		-2
Bierbrodt, Nick		-1		0
Blair, Willie		-2		-2
Borbon, Pedro		0		0
Bowles, Brian		-2		-2
Bradford, Chad		5		5
Brock, Chris		-3		-3
Buehrle, Mark		17		16
Burba, Dave		-4		-1
Burkett, John		12		14
Byrd, Paul		0		1
Callaway, Mickey	-3		-3
Carpenter, Chris	2		5
Carrasco, Hector	-2		-3
Cassidy, Scott		-3		-3
Castillo, Frank		9		9
Choate, Randy		-2		-3
Clemens, Roger		16		18
Coco, Pasqual		-3		-3
Colome, Jesus		2		2
Colon, Bartolo		10		13
Cook, Dennis		-2		-2
Cooper, Brian		-3		-3
Cordero, Francisco	-2		-3
Cornejo, Nate		9		9
Crawford, Paxton	-3		-3
Creek, Doug		0		1
Cressend, Jack		14		13
Davis, Doug		3		5
Donnelly, Brendan	-3		-3
Douglass, Sean		-1		-1
Drese, Ryan		4		6
Duchscherer, Justin	2		2
Durbin, Chad		0		1
Erickson, Scott		-4		-2
Escobar, Kelvim		24		21
Eyre, Scott		0		1
Farnsworth, Jeff	-5		-5
File, Bob		4		3
Finley, Chuck		5		7
Fossum, Casey		3		3
Foster, Kris		-1		-1
Foulke, Keith		33		30
Franklin, Ryan		2		2
Fyhrie, Mike		-2		-2
Garces, Rich		4		4
Garcia, Freddy		19		19
Garland, Jon		2		3
George, Chris		0		0
Ginter, Matt		0		0
Glover, Gary		6		6
Green, Steve		-2		-3
Grimsley, Jason		0		1
Groom, Buddy		9		8
Guardado, Eddie		20		18
Halama, John		4		3
Halladay, Roy		17		18
Harper, Travis		-2		-2
Harville, Chad		-1		-2
Hasegawa, Shigetoshi	8		7
Hawkins, LaTroy		-8		-7
Henry, Doug		-1		-1
Hentgen, Pat		-1		-2
Heredia, Felix		0		0
Hermanson, Dustin	6		8
Hernandez, Adrian	-3		-3
Hernandez, Orlando	9		10
Hernandez, Roberto	21		18
Hiljus, Erik		2		5
Hitchcock, Sterling	-2		-1
Holtz, Mike		-5		-5
Howry, Bob		-1		-1
Hudson, Tim		17		17
Irabu, Hideki		-2		-2
Jackson, Mike		1		1
James, Delvin		0		-1
Johnson, Jason		0		2
Julio, Jorge		12		11
Karsay, Steve		4		5
Kaye, Justin		-1		-1
Kennedy, Joe		6		7
Kent, Steve		-1		-2
Kinney, Matt		-4		-4
Koch, Billy		21		19
Levine, Al		1		0
Lewis, Colby		-2		-3
Lidle, Cory		23		21
Lilly, Ted		-1		0
Lima, Jose		1		2
Loaiza, Esteban		-2		-2
Lohse, Kyle		-3		-1
Lowe, Derek		2		4
Lukasiewicz, Mark	-1		-2
Lyon, Brandon		9		9
MacDougal, Mike		-3		-3
Maduro, Calvin		4		4
Magnante, Mike		2		1
Martinez, Pedro		21		22
May, Darrell		-8		-5
Mays, Joe		17		17
McGlinchy, Kevin	-1		-1
Meadows, Brian		-3		-4
Mecir, Jim		3		3
Mendoza, Ramiro		8		7
Mercedes, Jose		-2		-3
Miadich, Bart		-2		-3
Miceli, Dan		0		0
Miller, Matt J.		-3		-3
Miller, Matt L.		1		1
Miller, Travis		-4		-4
Milton, Eric		11		13
Moehler, Brian		-2		-2
Moreno, Juan		1		1
Moyer, Jamie		14		14
Mulder, Mark		20		20
Mussina, Mike		29		30
Nagy, Charles		-5		-5
Nelson, Jeff		8		8
Olivares, Omar		-2		-3
Oliver, Darren		-5		-4
Ortiz, Ramon		5		7
Osuna, Antonio		2		2
Park, Chan Ho		18		20
Parque, Jim		-6		-5
Parris, Steve		2		1
Patterson, Danny	3		2
Pena, Juan		-2		-3
Percival, Troy		27		24
Perisho, Matt		-3		-4
Pettitte, Andy		12		14
Phelps, Travis		2		3
Pineiro, Joel		18		18
Plesac, Dan		2		2
Ponson, Sidney		-3		-1
Porzio, Mike		-5		-5
Pote, Lou		4		4
Powell, Jay		5		4
Prokopec, Luke		-2		1
Radinsky, Scott		-1		-2
Radke, Brad		16		16
Rauch, Jon		-3		-2
Redman, Mark		-2		0
Reed, Rick		2		4
Reichert, Dan		-14		-11
Rhodes, Arthur		12		12
Riggan, Jerrod		1		1
Rincon, Ricardo		6		6
Riske, David		4		5
Ritchie, Todd		9		10
Rivera, Luis		-3		-4
Rivera, Mariano		33		29
Roberts, Willis		1		1
Rocker, John		4		4
Rogers, Kenny		-1		0
Romero, J.C.		-1		0
Runyan, Sean		-6		-6
Rupe, Ryan		-4		-1
Ryan, B.J.		3		3
Sabathia, C.C.		11		14
Santos, Victor		-5		-4
Sasaki, Kazuhiro	30		26
Schoeneweis, Scott	5		5
Seanez, Rudy		0		-1
Seay, Bobby		-4		-4
Sele, Aaron		16		16
Serrano, Wascar		-3		-3
Shields, Scot		-3		-3
Shouse, Brian		-3		-3
Shuey, Paul		3		3
Simas, Bill		-2		-1
Sirotka, Mike		0		0
Sparks, Steve		13		13
Stanton, Mike		1		2
Stein, Blake		4		5
Stephens, John		0		-1
Sturtze, Tanyon		3		5
Suppan, Jeff		10		10
Tam, Jeff		7		6
Thurman, Corey		-3		-2
Thurman, Mike		-3		-3
Towers, Josh		0		1
Urbina, Ugueth		29		27
Valdes, Ismael		0		2
Van Poppel, Todd	6		6
Venafro, Mike		0		-1
Vizcaino, Luis		2		1
Wakefield, Tim		2		3
Wall, Donne		-3		-3
Wallace, Jeff		-3		-3
Washburn, Jarrod	10		11
Weaver, Jeff		12		12
Weber, Ben		1		0
Wells, Bob		2		2
Wells, David		3		4
Westbrook, Jake		-3		-3
Wickman, Bob		22		19
Wilson, Kris		-3		-2
Wilson, Paul		10		12
Wise, Matt		-1		-1
Wohlers, Mark		0		0
Woodard, Steve		-3		-3
Wooten, Greg		-3		-3
Wright, Danny		-2		0
Wright, Jaret		-2		-2
Wunsch, Kelly		3		3
Yan, Esteban		20		19
Zambrano, Victor	9		9
Zimmerman, Jeff		25		22
Zito, Barry		22		23


Please feel free to write in with your questions and comments.

Check back tomorrow for the list of our AL Batter Draft Values and discussion of specific players.

Today's Fantasy Rx: For those of you in non-standard leagues, please refer to the first four Daily Rx articles in the archive, as well as the columns from February 7th, February 8th, and February 9th.

These seven articles described the methodology of Category Dollars, the system of calculations that we use to derive our Draft Values.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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