Today's Fantasy Rx

As I mentioned yesterday, John Zaleski of Ultimate Fantasy Sports was kind enough to send me a relatively complete reserve roster from the AL LABR draft. Baseball Weekly hasn't bothered posting the reserve rosters for either league, but thanks to John, we'll be able to review last weekend's AL draft over this weekend.

I'll try to break them down team by team with a more in-depth review than is normally present in the annual Baseball Weekly Fantasy issue. Tomorrow I'll also offer my projections for the Top 3 teams, a prediction that we'll revisit at the end of the season.

Please refer to the LABR American League rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Jonathan Mayo, defending champion
Site: MLB.com
$ Left: $3.
Split: $173H/$84P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Jayson Werth, Quilvio Veras, Scott Erickson, Herb Perry, Cal Pickering, Carl Crawford.
Audio Review Summary from website: Mayo left $26 on the table last year, and while he still won, he was determined to avoid that mistake this year. He listed his potential bargains as Dye@$19, Valdes@$3, and D.Hermanson@$5. As he also owned ARod last year at $44, he was pleased to draft him this year at a $2 discount. Finally, he grabbed two $1 catchers in Mayne and Mirabelli that shouldn't hurt him, although he thinks he paid too much for Mayne at a $1.

Nice pick: Andy Pettitte@$16; he's the youngest Yankee starter and appears poised for a breakout year.
Top sleeper: Casey Fossum@$1, a potential $10 player if Boston moves him into the rotation.
Potential bust: Mark Mulder@$24, as each of the Big 3 A's starters has been somewhat overworked.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Werth, Pickering, and Crawford.
Early bad luck: Corey Koskie($26)'s injury.
Category to trade: Potentially wins.

Mayo drafted a fairly balanced team although he could be very vulnerable in ERA and WHIP due to Burkett, Valdes, and Hermanson. He used his bench to grab talent instead of to augment his roster, and I'd be surprised if more than one or two of his six reserves were still on his roster by the end of the year. Aside from ARod, he also appears very weak in BA with Mondesi, Vaughn, Easley, and Paquette contributing many potential AB without high averages.

Summary: While there's a nice core of talent here, he'll need some lucky FAAB pick-ups or trades to finish in the money.

Owner: Irwin Zwilling & Lenny Melnick
Site: MLB Radio
$ Left: $0.
Split: $198H/$62P = 76/24.
Reserve roster: Chris Richard, Tanyon Sturtze, Adam Piatt, Jim Parque, ???, Andres Torres.
Audio Review Summary from website: They're happy with Carlos Lee(20/20)@$20, Jose Cruz(30/30)@$26, and Brian Daubach(20HR)@$7. Steve Cox should be a decent value@$13 and IRod will hit his customary .320 for $26.

Nice pick: IRod@$26; we've seen him customarily head over $30 in almost every draft, so this is a great start to a team.
Top sleeper: Travis Phelps@$1; he'll earn $5-$10 even if he doesn't see more than a couple of save opps.
Potential bust: Russ Branyan@$16; Cleveland still hasn't committed to him over Bradley/Anderson, and his BA will keep his value depressed.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jim Parque(potential wins but will kill ERA/WHIP) and Andres Torres really needs another full year in the minors.
Early bad luck: Jeremy Giambi's ascendance to the leadoff spot diminishes Piatt's sleeper potential.
Category to trade: SB and Wins

While they definitely have some exposure in ERA and maybe even WHIP, I really like how they assembled their team. Even Rey Sanchez should contribute a buck or two of profit, so their only empty offensive slot is Jolbert Cabrera. They should have solid wins from Washburn/Reed/Abbott/Finley/Irabu, Riske/Romero/Phelps gives them three relievers with solid skills and potential to excel, and Zimmerman was a nice bargain at $23. If they can use guys like Homer Bush and Paul Abbott to fill holes that develop during the year, they could stay in the race until the end due to their excess AB alone.

Summary: A nice balance of developing talent(V.Wells/C.Lee) with veteran studs(IRod/Higginson/Thomas) should insure at least a solid first division finish.

Owner: Mat Olkin
Site: Baseball Weekly
$ Left: $0.
Split: $156H/$104P = 60/40.
Reserve roster: Jerrod Riggan, Gary Glover, Ryan Franklin, Al Levine, ???, ???.
Audio Review Summary from website: Mat spent early, a definite departure from his past LABR drafts. He grabbed Pedro@$34 right away, thinks Mike Young($6) should start stealing bases again, Pena($16) should be the top rookie, and he'll move Felipe Lopez($8) to SS for Guillen as soon as Lopez qualifies.

Nice pick: Pedro Martinez@$34; he went for $50 two years ago and $45 last year. He should earn $34 even if he only pitches 180 IP, and if he makes 200-220, he could earn $10+ of profit.
Top sleeper: Brian Buchanan@$3; if given 500AB, he could hit 25+ HR easily.
Potential bust: Mitch Meluskey@$10; he should reach this if he finds 400AB, but even with Inge's current struggles, Detroit seems committed to starting him as soon as possible.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Riggan and Franklin both have a lot of competition for their spots, but they're also solid relievers if given the opportunity.
Early bad luck: Rumors abound that Kelvim Escobar's circulation problem from last September could wind up sidelining him for a while.
Category to trade: Wins and young offensive players.

Olkin paid good money for Pedro, Bernie($28), Lawton($22), and Escobar($22), and then filled in around them with a slew of potential offensive studs(in 2004) and a good variety of starting pitching. I'm not sure why he drafted half of the Blue Jays' staff (Escobar, Halladay($16), Carpenter($6), Lyon($4), and Prokopec($1), as I think the latter three are especially vulnerable to slumps this year. Doug Davis and Gary Glover should prove to be nice sleepers, but he'll need a healthy Pedro to keep his ERA/WHIP at low levels. His entire IF is also very dependent upon rookies and second year players developing quickly, and a sophomore slump from Rivas, albeit somewhat unlikely, could really hurt him in SB.

Summary: Mat assembled a team with tremendous potential that could also fall flat if he loses Pedro and Escobar. While we don't know his final two reserve picks, he didn't grab any top set-up men on the rest of his roster, leaving him exposed in saves and very dependent upon a somewhat eclectic group of starters. I think he'll finish in the first division (at least I hope he will as we also own many of these players), but there's a lot of inherent risk in this roster.

Owner: Lisa Winston & Wayne Wilentz
Site: Baseball Weekly
$ Left: $3.
Split: $173H/$84P = 74/26.
Reserve roster: Juan Rivera, Nate Cornejo, Ron Coomer, ? Thurman, ???, Kenny Baugh.
Audio Review Summary from website: They spent an early because they apparently overvalued some players like Tejada($32), a high price for someone with no steals. They wish they had kept more money for the end since they were stuck with eight one dollar players.

Nice pick: Jose Macias@$13; as long as he starts in CF and leads off the entire year, he could earn over $20 due to his SB upside.
Top sleeper: Joe Crede@$2; if he starts, he'll earn over $10 easily.
Potential bust: Tejada can't earn $32 unless he somehow manages to raise his BA a couple dozen points. Garcia($25) and especially Zito($27) have both been overworked, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Zito only earn half that price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Omar Infante(needs AA time), Luis Matos(stuck behind guys making 10x the money), Jose Rosado(his arm's practically falling off), Dewon Brazleton(never even pitched in the minors), and Kenny Baugh(as previously mentioned, he was the most overworked pitcher in organized baseball last year and he's already been shut down this spring).
Early bad luck: Escobar's out for the year with a fluke injury and Bush has already beaten out Hudson in Toronto.
Category to trade: Pitching; the only way for them to field a competitive offense is to either deal Sasaki for a lot of help and punt saves, or move Pineiro and either Garcia or Hudson and try to move towards LIMA.

The only player they drafted without significant risk is Sasaki, as almost all their pitchers are too young for 200 IP and the offensive players don't have much room to exceed their salaries. Toby Hall@$16 is probably a fair price, but even he can't exceed it. Delgado's one great year stands out against the rest of his career, likely limiting him to $30, and Cameron has potential BA problems. The only offensive players even assured of a starting job right now are Hall, Delgado, Febles, Tejada, and Cameron, a very small percentage compared to most of the other teams. However, I will give them some credit if they drafted Corey Thurman, likely to remain as the Blue Jays' long reliever at worst for the season, although I fear they may have picked up Mike Thurman instead.

Summary: If everything breaks right, they could compete for fourth; unfortunately, I suspect they'll be lucky to finish as high as seventh, and they might fall down a few more places.

Owner: Gene McCaffrey & John Menna
Site: Wiseguy Baseball
$ Left: $1.
Split: $173H/$84P = 66/34.
Reserve roster: Nick Bierbrodt, Willie Harris, Danny Patterson, Brian Moehler, ???, Jeff Shaw
Audio Review Summary from website: They expected to acquire Rafael Palmeiro($25), Marty Cordova($10), and Bartolo Colon($20), and managed to grab all three at reasonable prices; they think the first two will be solid bargains. They're not at all upset for going $32 for Manny Ramirez as lesser players went for more or the same money. Rondell White could be a great bargain at $10 if he manages even 100 games. Their $3 Esteban German will move to reserve until mid-season, and the wish they hadn't gone $6 on Hatteberg.

Nice pick: Mark McLemore@$10; a likely $20 player and they're correctly using him at SS.
Top sleeper: Jeff Shaw with their last reserve pick; this could help them win the league if he doesn't retire.
Potential bust: Derek Lowe@$12 has never shown he can withstand the rigors of starting.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Brian Moehler won't be back for a few more months; we still expect Harris to spend most of the year at AAA.
Early bad luck: Mark Quinn's kung fu fighting with his brother, resulting in a cracked rib.
Category to trade: Power; they have some great cheap sources in Gibbons($10) and Quinn($6).

If Jeff Shaw does return with the Cubs or any team, the Wise Guys will have enough ammo to deal for their missing speed. They grabbed at least a solid platoon player at every position except for German, and they're likely hoping to use Willie Harris in his place. They do appear very vulnerable to injury with Tony Clark($20), Burks($16), and Rondell White($10), and I'd prefer to see some younger guys here besides Davis and Gibbons. However, Bierbrodt was a great reserve pick, as was Patterson, and they'll gain an advantage by alternating in their extra starters to maximize 2 start weeks, a strategy employed by few "experts". Somewhat interestingly, they also grabbed six players at $10(McLemore, White, Cordova, Gibbons, Joe Randa, and Todd Ritchie).

Summary: If almost everyone stays healthy and Shaw comes back, they should be strong enough to stay in the Top 4 most of the season, though they'll need to get several lucky wins from their pitchers to win it all.

Owner: John Coleman
Site: Sandlot Shrink
$ Left: $0.
Split: $160H/$100P = 62/38.
Reserve roster: Ken Harvey, Mike McDougal, Tim Wakefield, Chris Gomez, Kris Foster, Wil Cordero
Audio Review Summary from website: He picked up the $36 Jason Giambi while price-enforcing. He meant to spread out his cash to grab a lot of AB, but he's a little weak on HR/RBI. However, he thinks he has "big enough stars", a great core, and a balanced roster.

Nice pick: Jason Giambi@$36; he seems poised for a true career year and he's a great anchor for any team.
Top sleeper: Rickey Henderson, potential 20+SB for a buck.
Potential bust: Mark Buehrle@$19; a burnout risk who doesn't appear ready to be a staff ace at 23.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Kris Foster; Jared Sandberg's($1) bat also looks very weak.
Early bad luck: Esteban Loaiza's($1) arm troubles.
Category to trade: Wins, and lots of them.

Coleman drafted a fantastic base of offense(Giambi, Nomar($24), Stewart($26), and Everett($20), starters($25 Tim Hudson, $17 Chan Ho Park, and Buehrle), and Mariano Rivera@$34 for saves. He also filled in with a half dozen sleeper veterans: Taubensee($1), Fryman($6), Kennedy($9), Vizquel($6), O'Leary($1), and Dean Palmer($10). If even half of those come through solidly, he'll have plenty of offense to deal for a second closer or maybe even WHIP/ERA help. While he was stuck with five $1 pitchers, he made a solid pick in Rincon, and then stocked up on potential wins with Rogers, Burba, Loaiza, and Halama. Tim Wakefield could also be a fantastic sleeper and a good sub for when one of those four starters slumps.

Summary: Coleman's right in that he acquired "big enough stars" to compensate for his cheaper players. His $1 guys are easily replaceable with smart FAAB moves, and I think he should be able to stay in the chase the entire year.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you're like us and can't wait to actually watch some pre-season baseball, some of the first televised games of the year are on tomorrow. At 12:00 Central MSG has the Mets @ Cardinals and NESN has the Red Sox @ Yankees at 12:30 Central. Fox Sports Chicago also has Angels @ Cubs at 2 Central if you're interested.