Today's Fantasy Rx

As some of you hopefully noticed, we updated our Site Philosophy page on Friday. We added a section of influences and another with recommended links. If you haven't yet had a chance to read through our beliefs, we strongly suggest you peruse this page when you have a chance. You should gain a better understanding as to both our approach to baseball and fantasy baseball, as well as where and how we generated those beliefs.

Yesterday we attended BBHQ.com's First Pitch-Chicago panel discussion at the Wyndham Garden Hotel in Wood Dale, IL. Besides affording us a chance to see guys we met in Arizona the last two years like Ron Shandler, Rick Wilton, Deric McKamey, and Doug Dennis of BBHQ, we also relished the opportunity to listen to a several dozen fans bombard the panel with questions. We also enjoyed only having to travel a few minutes to see these guys, instead of traveling the 1800 or so miles to Arizona.

For today's article, we wanted to relay to our readers the most vital information conveyed yesterday during the four hour Q&A. Besides the four aforementioned writers for BBHQ, other panel members included Jim Callis of Baseball America's Ask BA, Jason Grey of Masters of Baseball, and two guys from STATS, Inc., only one of which said more than a dozen words the entire time (Thom Henninger was the talkative one).

Rick also writes for the Baseball Weekly Hot Sheet, and he's had significant experience with sports' injuries, so he's a primary resource on every player injury. Most of the injury information is from Rick.

Not all the comments were voiced by specific panel members; several of the opinions were issued as consensus beliefs, although I've noted speakers where appropriate. I've also added my thoughts at times, since much of this information requires context.

Since the Q&A lacked any real structure, I've related the comment in chronological order with the exception of Baseball America's Top 12 list, presented last. I've italicized what we believe are the most relevant and important pieces of information.

Top Anaheim starting pitching prospect John Lackey, who I strongly recommended as a potential minor league pick this year during pitcher reviews, was very overworked last season. Detroit's Kenny Baugh, discussed yesterday, was another name cited for overwork.

Most scouts don't value AFL Stats because the quality of pitching has really deteriorated. If a prospect has experiencing the slightest bit of arm soreness, they don't let him pitch in the AFL. Therefore all the hitting stats are summarily inflated.

The BF/G gauge used by BBHQ is based on concepts presented in Craig Wright's Diamond Appriased. Ron strongly recommends Baseball Prospectus' PAP system. Rick is developing a pitcher analysis website, due to debut this fall, that will focuss on potential injuries. Is there a maxim pitch level for each pitcher?

While almost all of Florida's young stud pitchers have been overworked, Penny has easily the lowest injury risk of the bunch.

Roy Oswalt re-tweaked his hamstring in a December workout.

Adrian Beltre looks great this spring - he's regained his weight and added an additional 8-10 lbs.
Rick: Beltre tops his NL breakout list.

Rick: Josh Hamilton has a 75% chance of undergoing back surgery this year. Hamilton has had eight cortisone shots in the last four months. The recommended dosage is no more than one shot every twenty to thirty days. As reported by ESPN.com's Jayson Stark earlier this weekend, Hamilton's dad has indicated that Hamilton might sour on baseball if this situation isn't soon resolved. Tampa Bay GM Chuck Lamar responded in print by saying that Hamilton needs to find out what's wrong or just play through the pain. If you have anyone left in your league that still believes in Hamilton, trade him now. We don't expect him to see the majors until 2004, and then you can just reacquire him if necessary.

Jim Callis: The A's acquired Venafro from Texas with the intent of immediately dealing him for Cust. Colorado's holding out for a second player, and neither side wants to budge. Cust has been worked in LF instead of 1B because he can't play any defensive position but at least will see less action in LF.

Rick's concerned about Dunn's September numbers(.227 BA, .326 OBP, .457 SLG) because he hasn't been around the league a second time.

Rick thinks Alfonzo's BA will go back up but his power might drop to 70 RBI. We strongly disagree with this as Alfonzo should have a great year hitting 5th between Vaughn and Burnitz even if he doesn't hit many HR.

San Diego's front office likens Burroughs to a young Rafael Palmeiro, who didn't really develop much power until after he was in the majors for a few years. Burroughs will naturally develop power.

Deric and Doug both live near Cincinnati, and believe that Williamson will make the opening day roster but spend much of the year in the bullpen while building up his arm again. Williamson is not pitch-efficient, so they'll need a deep bullpen if they want him to start.

Rick thinks the following players may be undervalued due to injury:
American League
Tim Salmon, as he's been injured two of the last three seasons
Frank Thomas
Cristian Guzman
Jason Varitek
Nomar Garciaparra, although due to scar tissue on his wrists, he might be limited to 20 HR this year
Jermaine Dye
Mitch Meluskey

National League
Mo Vaughn
Todd Hollandsworth
Tom Gordon, although there are legitimate injury concerns regarding Gordon
Mike Lieberthal is now 100%
Shawn Estes is Rick's #1 sleeper - Al Leiter "took him under his wing", and Leiter is still under Dave Righetti's wing

Jon Rauch's surgery only took 1 to 1.5 hours - they knew exactly what they were doing and he should be fine. However, several questions still surround Ryan Anderson, so you should be more careful with him.

If you're looking for a league, try out the matchmaker services at the following sites:
USA Stats
Fantasy Baseball Index
Rotoworld
Fantasy Baseball Central also has links to several matchmakers, including those listed above.

Pitcher injury problems are usually related to their workload and mechanics.

Morgan Ensberg could platoon. While Jimy Williams has given players like Shea Hillenbrand a full-time opportunity to play, the Astros are looking for a reliable platoon-mate for Ensberg.

When Dave Stewart was San Diego's pitching coach, Sterling Hitchcock, Donne Wall, and Trevor Hoffman all had career years. Now that he's on Milwaukee, expect potentially great improvement from:
Glendon Rusch, now the same age as Hitchcock was in 1998
Ben Sheet
Ruben Quevedo

Breakout players:
Jason: Johnny Damon
Jim: Daryle Ward and Jay Gibbons - Gibbons has lost 10-20 lbs.
Thom - Aubrey Huff
Rick - Ben Grieve
Ron - Eric Owens has the green light and will add 15-20 SB in 2002
-Magglio Ordonez can earn $10 over $35.
Deric - Bobby Higginson

Carlos Baerga as an excellent chance of breaking camp with Boston as a backup infielder and even potentially a platoon partner for Hillenbrand.

Jim: Team chemistry is used as an excuse by beat writers to explain either good or bad performances.

Great guys for those of you using Ron's LIMA plan: Octavio Dotel, and potentially Cliff Politte and Vicente Padilla depending on opportunity.

Rick thinks Duckworth has the best chance to "go Matt Morris" this year.

Regarding Boston's pitching, they overworked Pedro in the past to take pressure of the bullpen. Now Hermanson and Burkett will also take pressure off the pen. Derek Lowe and Frank Castillo are likely only six IP pitchers at best, but Boston will keep guys like Darren Oliver and maybe Willie Banks in long relief roles. Casey Fossum will stay in the bullpen until he can pitch more than five inning a start.

Bobby Hill should be better than Jimmy Rollins, although maybe not until 2003.

If a team has promoted or will promote a Latin American player very aggressively for no apparent reason, specifically one from the Dominican Republic, they probably suspect that he's a couple years older. Juan Cruz is a primary example, and that would also explain Carlos Zambrano's rapid rise.

Top breakout candidates from each panelist:

Ron - Jose Ortiz & Juan Uribe, based on the Colorado opportunity - both could be worth $20

Jim - Adam Dunn

Deric - Adrian Beltre

Jason - Glendon Rusch and Hank Blalock; Jason thinks Blalock can produce in the majors right now

Rick - the aforementioned Duckworth and Dustin Hermanson

STATS guys - Todd Ritchie, Jose Ortiz, D'Angelo Jimenez, and maybe Ramon Vazquez

Doug - Brad Wilkerson

Finally, Jim was kind enough to give us a sneak preview of Baseball America' upcoming Top 100 list, normally not released for another day or two. Here are the Top 12 to the best of his recollection:

12. Joe Borchard, OF, CHW
11. Austin Kearns, OF, CIN
10. Mark Teixeira, IF, TEX
9. Drew Henson, 3B, NYY
8. Wilson Betemit, IF, ATL
7. Joe Mauer, C, MIN
6. Juan Cruz, RHP, CHC
5. Carlos Pena, 1B, OAK
4. Sean Burroughs, 3B, SD
3. Hank Blalock, 3B, TEX
2. Mark Prior, RHP, CHC
1. Josh Beckett, RHP, CHC

Jim said the reason they selected Beckett first was that despite Prior potentially having more upside, Beckett's pitched decently in the majors. Considering that Prior hasn't even pitched professionally, you can probably project him as the #1 prospect for 2003, assuming he doesn't lose his rookie qualification this year.

One final note on the 2002 Arizona Fall League Fantasy Symposium: The Symposium will run from Friday, November 1st to Sunday, November 3rd. For those that can stay through Monday, former Houston Astros' Scouting Director David Rawnsley will run a one-day Scout School on Monday, November 4th. We'll be there for the third straight year, and we strongly encourage all our readers to join us. You get to visit with some of the top experts of the industry and watch dozens of top prospects play in a few AFL games.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Last day of the Olympics, so I'll have to recommend the gold medal hockey game between U.S. and Canada at 2 PM Central and the Closing Ceremonies at 7 PM Central.