Today's Fantasy Rx

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We continue our Spring Magazine reviews with:

Major League Baseball Yearbook 2002

1/10 points for Presentation.
I've been unimpressed with this publication for quite a while, and they've gotten even worse this year: I opened the cover and pages 3-10 fell out of the book. Since this section includes the TOC, I assume this was not meant as a pull-out section. The book does seem relatively well organized, although they use a weird set of printed tabs on the right side of each page that don't really make it any easier to find players. I'll give them a point between the tabs and the player index on page 160-161, but there's really very little aesthetic to like about this book. The player reviews are also confusing; the AL is always on the left page with the NL on the right, breaking up the articles in a very annoying fashion. They even use the same ad on the inside front and back covers.

4/10 points for Table of Contents and included content.
The TOC is right there on page 3, easily the most visible and accessible of any magazine reviewed so far this spring. I'm not going to judge the team previews since they don't really add the to the fantasy aspect of the book, especially since they defy all statistical analysis by picking such gems as the Marlins winning the wild card behind Division Champions New York, Chicago, and San Diego. They provide overly questionable dollar values like Barry Zito at $38, and they waste space by including headshots with most of the player profiles (although they apparently didn't bother to find everyone, since they only print team logos for guys like Aaron Rowand and C.C. Sabathia.

While the overall setup of the fantasy section is somewhat appealing in terms of the number of specifically highlighted players, sleepers/keepers, etc., they also only list the players in order of projected value.

Now, some of you may be surprised that I'm deducting for not listing player reviews alphabetically since I ordered all my 2001 player review by final 4x4 dollar value separated by position and league. The difference is that a fantasy preview should be an easy reference guide while the after-season reviews were structured to benefit easy comparison; plus, we aren't charging over five dollars for our player reviews.

2/10 points for describing the league for their main rankings.
All they state is that their projections are for 5x5.

22/50 points for specific player analysis, 5 points for each player as follows.
(As long as a magazine discusses part of each detail, we give them a full point.)

13/25 points for Position Players:

1. Jeremy Giambi, Outfielder, Oakland Athletics:
  1. Only now entering his peak years.
  2. Most of his averages have been trending upwards for the past few seasons.
  3. He's better at his age than his brother Jason.
  4. Injury questions: He's never had more than 2001's 371 AB in a season.
  5. Playing time question: The Athletics have several other quality 1B/LF/DH.

3/5 points for Giambi. #1, #2, and #5, but then they print "Giambi is still waiting to swipe his first home run in the major leagues. A slow runner, he may have to wait a long time." I completely agree; he'll have to wait until they allow him to steal every base, including 1B, while promising not to throw him out.

2. Shawn Green, Outfielder, Los Angeles:
  1. He should stay above the 40/110 level regardless of a Sheffield trade.
  2. He's capable of a 45/35 season if given the opportunity.
  3. He just entered his peak power years.
  4. He almost never misses a game, so you can count on high counting number totals across the board.
  5. Los Angeles expects him to anchor their offense despite a career .353 OBP.

1/5 points for Green. #1, and they even think his steals will decrease as "he becomes more valuable as a run producer for the Dodgers".

3. Todd Hundley, Catcher, Chicago Cubs:
  1. Expect 30+ HR if he can find 400+ AB.
  2. Don't expect him to find 400+ AB unless he starts off strong.
  3. He should reach at least 80 RBI hitting behind Sosa, McGriff, and Alou.
  4. Don't expect him to exceed a .260 BA.
  5. He's young enough to rebound into a typical catcher's late-career power spike.

3/5 points for Hundley. Hits on #1, #2, and #4. Hundley "might not even be the best receiver on the Cubs." If they believe that Girardi is a better defensive catcher, they may be correct. If they mean that Girardi is a better hitter, they've never looked at either players' statistics. If the Cubs installed Satellite Radio, then they're definitely correct.

4. Doug Mientkiewicz, First Baseman, Minnesota Twins:
  1. He's 27 and entering his third full season; expect a more impressive breakout than 2001.
  2. His RBIs will increase as Rivas and Guzman's OBPs increase.
  3. His runs will increase with probable improvements by Ortiz, Jones, and whomever earns the RF job.
  4. He'll be lucky to hit .300, but .290 is quite reasonable.
  5. With Tom Kelly gone, he's the unquestioned starter for the next couple of years.

2/5 points for Mientkiewicz. #2 and #5, although they predict a .308 BA for him.

5. Jose Ortiz, Second Baseman, Colorado Rockies:
  1. He's receiving his first uncontested full-time job going into Spring Training.
  2. His 2000 MLEs were outstanding, even for the Pacific Coast League.
  3. He's only turning 25 this year, so he's likely to post great 5x5 numbers in the future.
  4. Colorado wants to bat him 2nd, decreasing his RBI opportunities, but potentially increasing his runs scored ahead of Helton and Larry Walker.
  5. If he struggles, they might give Brent Butler a shot at the job.

4/5 points for Ortiz. Hits on #1, #2, #3, and #4.

9/25 points for Pitchers:

1. Paul Abbott, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners:
  1. He had 17 wins because he received the most run support in the majors in 2001.
  2. He's allowed over 20 HR in each of the last two seasons in under 180 IP both years.
  3. Since he's already 34, he's now on the downside of his career.
  4. His K:BB has been quite bad at a combined 218:167 over the last two years.
  5. Seattle has a cadre of young pitching soon to replace him.

2/5 points for Abbott. #1 and #2 while they think "he'll be on everyone's sleeper list." He's certainly on our Sleeper Disaster list, as he could easily post a negative value in 2002.

2. Matt Anderson, Closer, Detroit Tigers:
  1. Aside from one bad April outing, his ERA would have been well below 4.00.
  2. He pitched quite well as a full-time closer last year.
  3. There's little competition in the Tigers' bullpen.
  4. He doesn't appear to be an injury risk.
  5. The Tigers have a weak offense and weak starting pitching, decreasing his potential save opportunities.

2/5 points for Anderson. #2 and #3, and they completely missed #1, instead stating "his 4.82 ERA and 1.32 WHIP could be better" without providing any context.

3. Curt Schilling, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks:
  1. He's unlikely to reach 20 wins again in 2002 because of a probable downturn in Arizona's offense.
  2. He led the league in HR, so his ERA could rise if his OOBP ever slips.
  3. He's 35, but appears to be aging nicely like his fellow ace and World Series MVP.
  4. While he's only broken 190 strikeouts three times in his career, he struck out over 290 batters in those other three years. Expect another season of close to 300.
  5. While he appears recovered from past injuries, he could hit the DL quickly, so monitor his pitch counts for overuse.

2/5 points for Schilling. #2 and #3, they miss #5 by saying he's "sure to pitch every fifth day".

4. Jason Schmidt, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants:
  1. He has $20+ potential when healthy.
  2. He appears to be both healthy and secure after signing a long-term deal with the Giants.
  3. He struck out almost a batter per inning last season.
  4. He's never finished the year with an ERA under 4.07, which he's reached twice.
  5. The Giants have a deep and talented bullpen, so he won't need to pitch deep into games.

1/5 points for Schmidt. They touch on #1 by speculating on potentially high win totals, although they then harp on his injuries while you should "look for him to pitch seven innings each start", thereby completely missing on #5.

5. Ugueth Urbina, Closer, Boston Red Sox:
  1. He appears fully recovered from his arm troubles.
  2. Posted a 2.25 ERA and a 32:3 K:BB after his trade to Boston.
  3. The Red Sox want Lowe to start, eliminating his primary competition.
  4. He'll be a free agent after this season, so the Red Sox are open to trading him under the right circumstances.
  5. He can dominate when healthy, and the Red Sox have a good team surrounding him.

2/5 points for Urbina. Hits on #2 and #5, but they miss on #1 and #3 with "His arm is a ticking time bomb. If you take Urbina, get Derek Lowe as insurance."

0/5 points for editing. I can't believe they actually employ people as "editors"; consider the following paragraph:

"Know your farm systems. The Phillies were merely waiting for Josh Beckett to get older and healthy before they called him up last year. Last spring, the Twins said that they were going to make room for Luis Rivas and they did. Seattle made it clear that they would not use Ryan Anderson last season and Corey Patterson's struggles kept his chances limited Toronto. Knowing which blue chip prospects are going to get a shot in 2002 could give your squad a big edge."

Once you stop laughing, you can begin to count the mistakes. I dropped them a point each for these glaring errors: Beckett's with Florida, Seattle couldn't use Ryan Anderson since he was injured all year, Patterson'' with my Cubs, and "chances limited Toronto" speaks for itself. They lost the last point for printing "get your Ws from an Dustin Hermanson" four paragraphs later, and the errors continued throughout.

0/10 points for the accompanying website. They don't list a website in the magazine, and we couldn't find one anywhere on-line.

1/5 points for creativity and innovation. Nothing particularly interesting from a fantasy standpoint, but they included a Major League quote in their publication data. Of course, the quote fell out with the rest of the front section, so I really wish I was awarding half points this year.

Overall ranking: 30/100 points.
The player reviews are fairly decent, but you should probably ignore the rest of the magazine as it appears both uninformed and badly written. Plenty of decent player values are ruined by the occasionally ridiculous one like the Zito price from above. Try to find a copy that won't disintegrate on you. One additional warning: they want you to pay $7.95 for their publication. So for a dollar more than TSN or Rotowire, you receive a less accurate, less interesting, and worse looking preview.

I saved this from the editing mention, but this nicely sums up the overall quality of the magazine:

Under "Editor's Picks" on page 12
Tucker Smith, Editor in Chief
A.L. Rookie of the Year: Vernon Wells, Blue Jays

Vernon Wells has 186 career at-bats going into 2002.

I'm going to stop here for today in the hope that I'll have time to focus on clearing out some e-mails later. Our e-mail provider reset our passwords without informing us a few days ago, and by the time we figured out the problem, several messages had already accumulated.

Today's Fantasy Rx: According to the current Great Airport Debate in this area, Chicagoland extends north to Milwaukee, south to Champaign-Urbana, east to Gary, and west to Rockford.

If you live anywhere within those boundaries and have Saturday free, we encourage you to head over to Wood Dale, IL on Saturday for Baseballhq.com's First Pitch-Chicago. The panel will likely include Ron Shandler, BBHQ's Deric McKamey, Baseball America's Jim Callis, and Rick Wilton of Baseball Weekly Hot Sheet.

We're going mainly to see what Rick has to say about several players recovering from injuries this year, but it's a great opportunity for any owner to have experts analyze your keeper rosters. BBHQ has also scheduled a similar event near New York on March 16th.