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February
12th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Bored of Review III: The Search for Blalock
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx.


Everyone wants a cornerman who can serve a few basic functions. You want him to provide double-digit home runs, preferably in the thirties, but his HR+SB should at least near 30 if you want a more balanced team. You want him to contribute to your BA, hopefully with a consistent .300+ BA. He also needs to stay relatively healthy to rack up those counting numbers. Finally, he should be able to keep Mike Tyson from eating your children.

Modern COR numbers seem somewhat inflated from even the .300/30/100 we expected in our youth, although a season like that still nets you $25 in value. Consistent double-digit production from third and first base is nearly always necessary to a successful fantasy season considering the depth available at these positions.

Twenty-two NL third basemen achieved Positive Draft Value while only 15 American Leaguers managed the same trick. However, of those National Leaguers, seven compiled $20+ PDV while another five players totaled $10+ PDV. Every team in most NL roto leagues has a good chance of finding solid production at a position considered to be relatively bereft of talent by many major media commentators. From 2001 values, this scarcity does not appear to exist in the NL.

In the American League, out of those fifteen double-digit earners, only five managed the same trick, excluding midfielders Mark McLemore, Jose Macias, Jose Valentin, and Shane Halter. Corey Koskie and Eric Chavez were the only players to reach more than $20, with Troy Glaus, Scott Brosius, and Mike Lamb comprising the remainder of this small cadre of talent.

Fortunately for AL owners, a new wave of talent appears to be reaching the majors. Eric Hinske, Hank Blalock, Joe Crede, and Drew Henson should attain double-digit value no later than 2003, and with Jeff Cirillo and Dmitri Young switching over from the NL this off-season, you should at least find some variety in your choices.

Another 17 National Leaguers and 9 American Leaguers earned less then $1 PDV. Of this group, only three third basemen from each league contributed positively to roto teams. The remaining 20 players all hurt your squads because of their low BA, limited AB, and correspondingly few quantitative numbers. If possible you should try to grab a decent 3B for your second corner slot because of the lack of depth in the free agent third base market.

Unfortunately, many of your fellow owners will grab two quality first basemen to insure a solid power foundation for their teams. Eleven National Leaguers reached Positive Draft Value while playing no scarcer position than first base, and twenty-two American Leaguers displayed similar performances, largely due to the number of 1B/DH types in the AL. However, of these 11 NL players, 7 posted double-digit value and fourteen of the twenty-two AL first basemen accomplish a similar feat.

Fourteen National Leaguers and 11 American Leaguers failed to achieve Positive Draft Value, and only four and five first basemen respectively in each league avoided hurting your team. Weak or inexperienced pinch-hitters and rookies often comprise this most shameful rung of infield value as all major league teams need to maintain a high level of production out of at least one COR position, and preferably both. A potentially playoff-bound franchise can't wait for corner power to mature unless they're incredibly deep in middle infield talent, allowing them to nurse a Wes Helms or even a Nick Johnson on their roster until his bat matures.

Especially in the American League, I would make every attempt to acquire a double-digit COR as you will gain another advantage over many of your opponents. Winning in fantasy baseball is as much about finding better value by position than other teams as selectively choosing players to obtain a maximum profit over their salary.


The biggest positional bargains will almost always show up in outfielders and pitchers because of the sheer volume of potential bargains. Designating at least one outfield and two pitching slots for endgame players at less than $4 will help you earn significant profit if you choose wisely, and hopefully the following numbers will give you an idea of the available talent.

Seventy-five NL outfielders reached Positive Draft Value, and 32 of them scored in double-digits. In the American League, 65 outfielders hit PDV with 38 achieving double-digit value. Fifty-four National Leaguers and forty-six American Leaguers failed to earn PDV, with twenty in the NL and three in the AL still managing not to hurt your team.

The pitchers are even less interesting because of the quantity of available talent. In the National League, one hundred and sixteen pitchers attained Positive Draft Value. Of this group, forty-four hit double-digit PDV. Two hundred and sixteen additional pitchers registered less than $1 PDV, although 101 of those, almost half of the negatively-draft-valued pitchers, still registered positive Category Dollars, and therefore would have been acceptable injury replacements.

In the American League, one hundred and sixteen AL totaled a PDV above $0, with forty-three of those pitchers reaching double-digit value. One hundred and sixty-seven pitchers failed to reach draftable value, although another seventy-two of these pitchers also succeeded in not hurting your team when needed as injury replacement.

So what do all these reviews really mean?

Outfielders and pitchers ranging from $40 to barely acceptable are readily available in sufficient quantities to fill those roster slots for every team in the league. You can find major advantages in the infield by judiciously filling those positions with players in the middle salary range of $5 to $15 who are likely, due to improving skills or age factors, to exceed their salary in 2002.

I fully recognize that you don't need to heed this advice. You can likely succeed with a strategy of two $1 catchers, allowing you two devote that extra $10 elsewhere, or by spending half your money on pitching, or you could even win while using the majority of your salary cap on just four quality infielders.

However, what all these reviews strongly suggest is that, based upon the players likely to be available at each position, you gain significant flexibility during the draft by not needing to commit to only one or two players at each position. You should grab the first available infielders (and potentially closers and good starting pitchers) that you can draft under or even at their projected salaries, and then fill your team with outfielders and pitchers that compliment your growing roster.

Happy Fat Tuesday.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I slightly erred in last week's Good Chicago Sports. The men's free skate, starring Rolling Meadows' (IL) own quad king Timothy Goebel airs tonight. If you miss the live broadcast, NBC will replay the entire evening of programming at 12:35AM Central Wednesday morning.

The senate hearings on MLB's anti-trust exemption are tomorrow, starring MLB Chief Legal Counsel Bob DuPuy and MLBPA head Don Fehr. They're scheduled to begin at 10AM Eastern, although we currently have no idea if they're supposed to be televised. As of now, our best suggestion is to check around C-Span's website tomorrow morning to check on their broadcasts. I'll update any broadcasting information that we learn in this space tomorrow.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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