Today's Fantasy Rx.

American League Relief Pitchers with Double-Digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mariano Rivera		4	50	2.34	0.90		83	12	61	21	80.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	42		35		63		49		33
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	38		30		57		42		30

Who would have believed that he was really a mortal? One fluke base hit that justified the luckiest of guesses by Tim McCarver kept Rivera from another unblemished post-season. His regular season was even better as he hit 50 saves, struck out over a batter per inning for the first time as a closer, and dropped his walk rate by more than half. Watch out for a mild fall in 2002 as his saves drop by at least a dozen while the Yankees return to blowing out the opposition instead of squeaking by with three run wins. He'll still be the most dependable closer in baseball; he just won't quite be worth $40.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Keith Foulke		4	42	2.33	0.98		75	22	57	21	81.0
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	37		30		54		43		30
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	33		26		49		37		27

Some people have used his repeated #1 ranking among relievers in the Elias statistics to point out the problems in the rankings. While we certainly agree that Elias barely knows what they're doing, Foulke certainly deserves his place in the upper echelon of current relievers. His strikeout rate has fallen for the past two years, leaving him a less dominant if not less effective closer. Pony up your $30+ and you shouldn't be disappointed as Chicago's pitching will only leave them slightly ahead of the other team in most games.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kazuhiro Sasaki		0	45	3.24	0.89		62	11	48	24	66.2
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	34		28		50		40		29
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	30		24		45		34		26

Sasaki seems poised on the edge of a true breakout season at the end of his peak years. A 2/3 drop in his walk rate down to 1.5 BB/9 mitigated a 3 K/9 drop in strikeout rate. He pitched much better than in 2000 but was hurt by bad luck and a great offense leaving him too few games to saves. Don't be even slightly surprised if he switches places with Rivera in next year's ranking, as 50+ saves would certainly not surprise me.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Troy Percival		4	39	2.65	0.99		71	18	39	17	57.2
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	31		26		45		37		23
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	28		22		41		32		19

Percival re-emerged from two seasons of arm problems to post his best numbers in many years. He should be able to maintain these levels as long as he stays healthy, and as soon as he signs a new contract (regardless of team), expect him to settle into a year or two of absolute dominance. The Angels possess an intriguing combination of a very solid starting rotation with some depth backed by an offense without even a hint of OBP knowledge. He should find close to 50 save opportunities in 2002, and if Anaheim can smartly lock him up for a few years, he'll convert a very high percentage of those.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Isringhausen		4	34	2.65	1.08		74	23	54	21	71.1
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	28		24		42		34		25
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	26		21		38		30		20

Isringhausen's skills suddenly merit his role as his K/9 jumped up by 2 as his BB/9 decreased by over 1 down to 2.9. He'll likely repeat these numbers in St. Louis as the Cardinals actually appear very similar to last year's Athletics. While Izzy will always be at risk to break down again due to Dallas Green's patented Pitcher Annihilation Program in the mid-90's, I believe he'll be a safe gamble for teams needing NL saves in 2002.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bob Wickman		5	32	2.39	1.11		66	14	61	18	67.2
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	27		23		40		33		17
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	25		20		36		29		20

While his statistics don't appear significantly superior to the previous few seasons, Wickman made tremendous gains by cutting his walk rate in half while raising his strikeout rate to almost a batter per inning. I suspect he'll slip somewhat in 2002 but certainly not enough to even move him down into the low-$20's. You likely know what you're getting here for another season, although I'm uncertain of his future past this year.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Zimmerman		4	28	2.40	0.90		72	16	48	19	71.1
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	27		23		39		33		5
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	24		20		36		29		2

Even if he slips from these lofty levels, Zimmerman will likely "only" return to his 1999 numbers. With a great offense powering a deep and mostly effective pitching staff, he'll find dozens of save opportunities this season and merely has to pitch adequately to retain a very high roto value. I even expect him to finally cross $30 if he can avoid any prolonged slumps, and now might be a great time to acquire him if his current owner is concerned about potential replacements in Texas' added relievers.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Billy Koch		2	36	4.80	1.47		55	33	69	37	69.1
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		18		31		26		30
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	19		16		27		23		27

His 2001 difficulties originated from an increased walk rate and a little more bad luck than normal for him. Koch appears poised for a great season in Oakland as the A's will stress throwing the ball over the plate, indicating that his walk rate will slam back down, likely accompanied by his ERA and WHIP. Isringhausen turned into a very good pitcher after some exposure to the Athletic system; Koch has almost identical skills to Izzy's at the same point in his career, leaving me to expect a solid $25 in 2002 followed by a monster 2003 if the young starters can remain healthy.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Roberto Hernandez		5	28	4.12	1.40		46	26	69	31	67.2
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		17		28		24		27
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	17		15		24		21		18

Hernandez's 2002 value will depend almost entirely on the structure of your league. If you're reading this as an experienced LABR participant, you might find a great bargain here as he'll save another 25-30 games while most of your fellow experts will ignore his fading skills. In leagues run during recess in sixth grade, you shouldn't own him since everyone else will recognize a popular name from their baseball cards. I like Hernandez as a second closer anywhere in the teens, since even a poor closer will still find saves when he's earning six million a year from Kansas City.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Derek Lowe		5	24	3.53	1.44		82	29	103	36	91.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		26		23		31
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	17		15		25		21		28

Over the last five years, his K:BB is 74:41 in 107.1 IP as a starter. As a reliever, he's posted a 296:100 K:BB in 377 IP. Why in the world is he starting when Casey Fossum and even Darren Oliver will waste away in the bullpen? I can't approve of spending more than about $10 on Lowe in 2002 as I don't think he'll find much success in the rotation. Expect Kerrigan to come to his senses by Memorial Day (or the new manager to acknowledge the existence of statistics) and Lowe to return to the effective setup and semi-closer role in which he's pitched so well. You should almost view him as a sleeper closer with Urbina heading towards an expensive free agency and no other replacement in sight.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Esteban Yan		4	22	3.90	1.20		64	11	64	27	62.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	17		15		24		22		16
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	15		14		22		19		13

Yan's skills rank him with the top closers in baseball. Good pitchers will find saves even on lousy teams, and since Hal McRae looks set to leave Yan alone in the bullpen, barring any severe slumps, you can likely expect thirty saves in 2002. Here is where scheduling can impact values: Tampa plays twelve of its first eighteen games against Detroit and Baltimore. I'm guessing Yan will have a half dozen saves by April 21st, and you can always trade the hottest closer in the league for a more dependable slow starter. Bid the extra dollar and watch the trade offers build.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Eddie Guardado		7	12	3.51	1.05		67	23	47	26	66.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	14		13		20		19		1
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	13		12		19		17		Res

Even if he stays anointed as the closer, you'll likely be able to draft Guardado for less than a dozen dollars since no one else will believe that he will keep the role. He certainly possesses the pitching ability to anchor the pen, so he needs to focus on consistent outings if he cares about maximizing his roto value. The sad fact of baseball is that most players don't care how they perform for your roto team, and players content in specialist roles need to be informed that when they don't object to a demotion from closing, they don't just hurt themselves.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Arthur Rhodes		8	3	1.72	0.85		83	12	46	13	68.0
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	14		13		20		18		4
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	13		12		19		18		3

These values aren't anywhere close to unexpected as he earned a similar price back in 1997. He's a good buy at anything in single-digits since he's largely maintained this strikeout rate his entire career. His roto value appears directly related to his walk rate, so if you see his BB/9 heading upwards of 4, you need to look for a trade partner immediately.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Matt Anderson		3	22	4.82	1.32		52	18	56	30	56.0
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	14		13		20		18		5
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	12		11		17		16		3

While he'll never justify the #1 overall pick that the Tigers used on him, Anderson should build on this season with an even better 2002. The best sign for his future is that he improved his strikeout rate by over 2.5 K/9 after his move to the closer's role. Some people will still remember his difficulties of the past few years or remain fixated on his relatively high ERA. Few people will realize that he never allowed more than 2 ER in any appearance outside of one Spring day when the Twins lit him for 7 ER. Ignoring that appearance, his ERA was a very acceptable 3.72. He'll improve on that in 2002, so don't be surprised if he earns $30+.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ramiro Mendoza		8	6	3.75	1.11		70	23	89	42	100.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		12		18		17		7
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	12		11		17		16		3

Mendoza made a very impressive return from arm troubles to a more appropriate role in middle relief. The addition of Steve Karsay will allow Torre to use every reliever in the situations where they'll see the best chance of success. This increased bullpen depth will likely lead to Mendoza compiling even better qualitative numbers while actually posting a lower value due to a reduced workload. He's still a good buy for several dollars as he'll contribute at least a few wins, but he lacks the dominance of the truly great middle relievers and therefore isn't worth a double-digit bid.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Sean Lowe		9	3	3.61	1.22		71	32	123	51	127.0
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		11		17		16		Res
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	11		11		16		15

Lowe seems to be slowly drifting towards consistent success. He finally edged his K:BB over 2 in 2001 as he posted his lowest strikeout rate in years. I can't see him finding nearly this much success in 2002 as the Pirates will count on him for a significant amount of innings, and even a normal starter's workload will likely cause his occasional arm troubles to resurface. I wouldn't bid more than a couple bucks on him in the National League.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
LaTroy Hawkins		1	28	5.96	1.91		36	39	59	34	51.1
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		11		15		15		19
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	9		9		13		13		13

Hawkins will never find much success in anything more than a mop-up role since he lacks any command or dominance. There's no reason to expect him to see any more save opportunities with several other superior pitchers already in the Minnesota bullpen with him. With Tom Kelly's departure, his roster spot isn't even secure, so don't expect any sort of return to these levels and don't be shocked by a quick decent into the negative realms of his pre-bullpen days.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Paul Quantrill		11	2	3.04	1.18		58	12	86	28	83.0
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	10		10		15		15		Res
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	9		10		13		14

Quantrill seems to have completed a great recovery from a snowmobiling accident two seasons ago. Toronto did a great job in dealing him now at the peak of his abilities for a comparable reliever in Chad Ricketts. Quantrill is unlikely to maintain an obscenely low walk rate of 1.3 BB/9, so unless he surprises and somehow wins the Dodgers' closer job for a couple of months, don't expect a double-digit value.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rolando Arrojo		5	5	3.48	1.19		78	35	88	40	103.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		15		15		2
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	10		10		14		14		1

Arrojo appeared completely burnt-out after 202 IP in the inaugural Tampa Bay season. He appears to have developed into a very capable swingman, and I expect that he'll be able to maintain these numbers for a few seasons. I'd certainly consider grabbing him for a couple of bucks since as long as Boston insists on starting Lowe and running Garces out of town, Arrojo may be first in line for 2003 saves.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Buddy Groom		1	11	3.55	1.11		54	9	64	26	66.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	10		10		14		14
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	9		9		13		13

Groom needs to maintain another ridiculously low walk rate of 1.2 BB/9 to retain this much value. He'll likely grab another half dozen or more saves since Willis Roberts will not be able to hold onto the closer's job. Definitely target Groom for anything up to several dollars, but remain prepared to cut bait on the aging reliever if his skills show decline.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tim Wakefield		9	3	3.90	1.36		148	73	156	73	168.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		14		14		Res
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	12		12		18		16		Res

Wakefield's knowledge that starters earn more money than relievers always seems to get in the way of his effectiveness in the bullpen. He shocked many rotisserie owners near the middle of the season when he briefly led the entire league in ERA due to some early luck in the rotation. As long as Boston keeps him in a long relief role, he'll be able to maintain a value close to double-digits. With their current rotation depth, they have little reason to start him, leaving him a great buy in most leagues for those of you who enjoy owning knuckleballers.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kelvim Escobar		6	0	3.50	1.15		121	52	93	49	126.0
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		14		14		1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	11		11		16		15		4

We came within a keystroke of trading a $1 Escobar for offense early last season, and while we regret irritating the other owner, we're glad our instincts paid off. Over the last five years, Escobar has compiled a 145:63 K:BB in 133 IP as a reliever while only allowing 120 hits and 15 HR. He should see tremendous success with a developing Toronto team, and he's easily worth a $20+ bid in most leagues.

Early conclusions: Bid up Rivera as high as you can afford before settling for two of the more inexperienced closers like Anderson and Yan. The American League appears suddenly blessed with a half dozen young and competent closers. At least two of this group will likely flame out by the end of the year, so spreading your $30-$40 in saves out over two pitchers decreases your risk and increases your upside should they both remain healthy and effective.

American League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Have I missed any players that you believe deserve comments? I know I've neglected a few players who lost 2001 due to injury, so if you've noticed any absent players, please e-mail me with their names and I will review them after I complete American League pitchers.