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January 15th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko National League Relief Pitchers with $-2 and $-3 PDV
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Vosberg continues to hang around the majors due to his right brain dominance even with his advancing age. He's never possessed great command, but he doesn't allow many hits and strikes out close to a batter an inning in limited work. I suspect he could easily find another team or two willing to keep him in AAA until the need arises for an injury replacement, although there's no reason for you to consider him as a similar option for your team.
Mantei walked too many batters when healthy and now he'll likely be out until the All-Star break. He should be the Snakes' closer whenever he returns since he consistently strikes out well over a batter per inning, but when can we expect him to be healthy? You probably should expect very little from him until some time in 2003, so only bid a buck or two if you can DL him for almost the entire season.
After Miceli complained loud enough to get John Boles fired in Florida, he continued to show his genius by lobbying for a trade to Colorado. Apparently he doesn't know that higher altitudes often mean more home runs allowed by homer-prone pitchers like himself. He's still a decent middle reliever, so if he lands in the right situation, he's worth an extra buck in most drafts since he should see the occasional save opportunity.
Jose Antonio Nunez made the short list of successful Rule 5 picks as his skills greatly improved in the second half when he stopped allowing a home run once every several batters. He demonstrated great potential as a lefty reliever and is exactly the type of player that teams should acquire in the Rule 5 draft. With a strikeout rate over a batter per inning and reasonably good walk rates, Nunez should remain part of the San Diego bullpen for at least a few years.
Davis pitched quite well considering his home field, although he earned relatively nothing and shows little future potential. He barely strikes out enough batters and also walks too many, and by hitting the trifecta of allowing too many homers, he seems poised to completely implode in a second season at Coors. I can't think of many circumstances that would warrant drafting him.
He's maintained a career strikeout rate of around 7 K/9 despite yearly ascending walk rates, peaking at an unacceptable 6 BB/9 in 2001. Nitkowski will receive many more opportunities as a lefty with strikeout potential who throws an inordinate number of groundballs, but he's too unstable to draft at this time. If his walk rate starts heading back down, he could return to some roto value by the second half.
Al Reyes continues to receive major league opportunities because he's struck out 225 batters in 236+ career IP. He offers as much potential as a host of other relievers that have signed multi-year contracts this off-season. While he usually walks too many batters, even a slight downward adjustment in his walk rate by an intelligent pitching coach would allow him to have some real value on almost any team.
Brock neither shows great potential as either a starter or reliever despite decent command. His statistics are elevated due to an unhealthy tendency to serve up somewhat significant numbers of home run balls. He could have success in the right situation, but I just don't see much immediate or draftable upside in his skills.
Mahay pitched extremely well at AAA Iowa in 2001 with at a 52:10 K:BB ratio in 46.2 IP, earning this call-up to Wrigley. He continued his previous pattern of walking slightly too many batters at the major league level although his strikeout rate was right in line with the rest of the bullpen at over a K/IP. Even if he secures a job as a second lefthander for Chicago, there's no reason to draft him as he's yet to sustain any success in the majors.
Chiasson probably could have jumped straight to middle relief in the majors as he posted a 62:20 K:BB ratio in 61.1 AA IP. The Cubs erred in trading Eric Hinske for the right to send him to the minors, as while Chiasson could be a great reliever, he doesn't have nearly the upside of Hinske. His brief stay at AAA was even more impressive with 14:0 K:BB in 12 IP. Chicago has the luxury of leaving him in the minors for another year, but he's definitely draftable from the moment he makes the majors for good. If they keep him at the start of 2002, figure $3-5 since he's likely next in line to close in 2003 if Farnsworth falters.
Walker was just starting to establish himself as a solid lefty reliever when he went down for the year with arm troubles. He isn't likely to make it back by Opening Day, and even when he returns, he'll likely return to his 2000 form instead of his excellent 2001 numbers. There's no need to draft with him the wealth of other available relief talent, but if he impresses upon his return, he's perfectly acceptable as a mid-season injury replacement.
MacRae skill level took another step up when he hit the majors, although his upside remains quite limited due to his low strikeout rate. After re-signing with the Reds only recently, MacRae's reportedly ineligible for a call-up until May. This situation reduces his already limited draft value to zero, so you should look for alternatives to emerge in the Cincy bullpen and your roster.
Florida re-called Strong for another few innings after giving him his first big league appearance in 2000 following most of sixteen years in the minors. He has practically no upside because of his advanced age, and with weak walk rates and too many hits, he's unlikely to find more playing time this season. There's no reason to acquire him even if he returns at some point.
Boehringer showed off his best skills in a few years but still remains the sixth or seventh option in a very deep bullpen. Since his strikeout rate peaked in the first half and then expectedly declined, he'll likely return to the barely acceptable level of previous seasons. Unless he emerges as a key bullpen component for another team, you should only employ him as an injury replacement.
While Linebrink didn't receive much major league time, he pitched another 70+ IP at AAA, maintaining most of his solid 2000 statistics while cutting his home run rate by more than 50%. He offers significant long-term upside as a late-inning reliever and hopefully will at least find an opportunity in middle relief in 2002. I'd probably hold off on acquiring him until he shows he can pitch in Enron, but there's little reason not to expect him to provide solid insurance for Wagner and Dotel as soon as the second half.
Despite a solid yet unlucky performance in 2000, the Diamondbacks gave Guzman few chances to prove himself in the majors this season. He pitched quite well in AAA, compiling a 85:30 K:BB ratio in 94.2IP while only allowing 92 hits. He'd certainly be a better option for them in 2002 than someone like Robert Ellis or Brian Anderson, and if they realize this rather obvious fact and keep him as their 4th or 5th starter, Guzman would make a fine 5th or 6th starter for almost any roto roster. Don't pay more than a few bucks for him since they could always demote him, but his potential is definitely worth a limited gamble.
Marte showed simply superb skills from the moment he entered the majors. With a K:BB ratio of 4.8 in the first half and an 8.8 K/9 rate in the second, he could soon emerge as perhaps even Pittsburgh's best reliever. He certainly has more potential than someone like Scott Sauerbeck. If you're looking for a middle reliever with good upside who's very unlikely to hurt you and you can likely draft for a buck in almost any league, Marte is the pitcher of your dreams.
After a great year of starting at AAA, the Mets gave Walker his fourth cup-of-coffee in the last seven years. He likely wouldn't hurt many teams as a fifth starter although his upside is limited due to his age and relatively weak strikeout rate. He's someone to consider if he secures a specific role on some team, although he's far more likely to spend the rest of his career as a AAAA pitcher at best.
After briefly teasing us as a potential starter, Mercado settled into a more appropriate bullpen role and started showing off some impressive stuff. He needs more consistency to establish himself as a good reliever, but with a strikeout rate of over a batter per inning, he would definitely be an asset to many rosters. I'd like to see him repeat these numbers for a month or two before acquiring him, although I have no problem using him when needed as an injury replacement once he's shown decent command in 2002.
Gomes' pitching has been decent to good the past few years, showing rather good strikeout rates but also elevated walk levels. While he doesn't allow many homers, lefties have been hitting him quite hard for the last year or two, leaving his upside somewhat suspect. I don't expect he'll ever emerge as the closer that many scouts expected when he was called up, though he should still pitch decently for several more years. Hopefully his probable new team will have a more friendly park, since Gomes really didn't enjoy his time at PacBell.
Stone received his first cup-of-coffee after seven years in the minors as he finally put up a very good 78:27 K:BB ratio in 95.1 IP. He doesn't appear to have great potential for future success as his 2001 statistics include about his best ever strikeout rate, but if he can maintain a low walk rate, he should have success in the majors. His potential will be determined in large part through finding an organization to give him a shot in the majors, as Houston is already fairly full of young pitchers with several more arriving soon.
Rijo returned in 2001 as one of the few players to ever play major league baseball after already receiving a Hall of Fame vote. Nothing in his numbers at any of four different levels indicate that he has the potential to succeed even in AAA. Nevertheless, Cincinnati re-signed him to a minor league contract, and he's still young enough to return to some of his former glory. I'd likely hold off until he proves himself again before considering him for any roster spot.
Almanza's established himself as a great lefty specialist with some long-term middle relief potential with his excellent strikeout rates of over a batter per inning for the last three seasons. He walks too many guys to ever see much late-inning time, although there's little reason not to use him as an injury replacement since he certainly shouldn't hurt you. You also probably don't want to count on him for many wins or saves, as he just won't find that much playing time.
Davey, like Kevin Walker, was just starting to establish himself as a primary setup option when he went down for the year with arm troubles. He was a top closer prospect with the Bluejays a few seasons ago, so once recovered, late this summer or in 2003, he's likely to re-emerge as one of Hoffman's setup guys. He'll have to fight Fikac and whatever prospects don't make the rotation, so he's probably not a good long-term gamble until he returns and posts decent statistics for a few weeks.
Moss appears recovered from his somewhat extensive arm troubles and pitching extremely well as a AAA starter. He'll likely see a few starts if anyone goes down, as he's one of the few pitchers in Atlanta's upper minors that appears ready for the majors. Strongly consider grabbing him with an Ultra pick, as his minor league numbers indicate significant long-term potential, and he appears to be out of options, meaning that he won't hurt you as a middle reliever for most of the year and will increase his upside with an eventual move into the rotation.
He's one of the Phillies' top relief prospects and finally appears ready for the majors after spending almost a full year at every minor league level. Nickle will only succeed if he can push his strikeout rate back up towards a batter per inning although his 2001 minor league numbers look much better if you remove the seven intentional walks from his ratios. I definitely think he can contribute as soon as this season, although he's likely not worth more than a buck or so until Larry Bowa shows that he'll actually use him in middle relief.
Nichting has pitched tremendously in AAA for a long time but just hasn't been able to break into the majors. He finally showed off extremely impressive stuff in 2001 as you can see by the above ratios. If he could keep his hits and homers down, he'd find continued success in any park in the majors even at his somewhat advanced age. Since he is on the downside of his career and no team has a real investment in him, he'll be lucky to stay in the majors beyond another brief appearance or two, although he shouldn't hurt you if needed as an injury replacement.
Jodie really needed a full year at AAA but wound up splitting time between five different clubs around his inclusion in the Hitchcock trade. He didn't not show the necessary dominance in AAA that warranted either promotion, although the Yankees, having reclaimed him on waivers, will likely given him that year of experience in 2002. Since he's quite likely to be included in another deadline deal this season, you probably won't want to spend a minor league pick on him even if he does have some chance of starting in New York if two or more of the starters break down.
Piersoll dominated at AA Chattanooga with a 78:30 K:BB ratio in 56 IP. He also wasn't ready for the majors as shown in this limited sample. After a full year of AAA, Piersoll should give the Reds a very capable bullpen option as soon as September. He doesn't offer much immediate upside, so there's no reason to draft him at this time.
Mulholland posted his best command in a long time as he really took off upon his trade to LA. They briefly considered starting him until they started acquiring a few excess starters in the off-season. He certainly doesn't possess much upside at this point, so you shouldn't employ him unless you're desperate for IP from an injury replacement.
Gonzalez received a decent amount of playing time in New York, although he didn't really impress the Mets as his strikeout rate continued to fall. He's always shown great command and could certainly succeed in Shea, but I suspect he's far more likely to be dealt than to receive an extended look as the entire roster appears geared towards winning in 2002. While he shouldn't hurt you if you want to gamble a reserve pick, remember that any long-term success for Gonzalez won't arrive in New York.
Winchester reappeared in the majors after a decent AAA season where he compiled a 37:10 K:BB in 53.1 IP. He offers little long-term potential, as he doesn't strike out enough guys to impress as a reliever. He'll see a few more opportunities as a pitcher with both major league experience and good command, although I can't recommend him at this time.
Lee strikes out a good number of batters but often walks almost as many. His K:BB hasn't been above 1.6 in any of the last three full seasons. While San Diego might use him to take some pressure of their younger pitchers, he just doesn't have the command to remain effective in the majors.
Davenport has practically no potential to succeed in the majors since he's never posted a K:BB ratio of even close to 2 in a full season. His strikeout rate itself is also fairly low, leaving him especially vulnerable like all soft-tossers in Colorado. Even in a healthier environment for pitchers, I doubt we'd see any skills that would make Davenport worth a pick-up.
Christman should begin to see solid success in Colorado as soon as this season as he's struck out over a batter per inning every season of his five-year career. He's also maintained over a 2 K:BB ratio except for a brief AA appearance in 2000. His 2001 AAA statistics at Colorado Springs indicate that he could be an extremely good reliever as long as there's a decent defense behind him to keep his hits allowed at relatively low levels. Of course, he's not draftable until you see him receiving save opportunities for the Rockies.
Mann posted exceedingly good stats in 2001 with a 91:17 K:BB ratio in 69 IP at AAA New Orleans. He certainly appears prepared for sustained major league success since his hit and homer rates were both below league average. Whether it occurs with the Astros or another team, Mann certainly shouldn't hurt you as an injury replacement if he can find a steady role.
Osting hasn't shown great potential since 1999 with Macon in A-ball. He's pitched for eight different teams at three different levels for three different organizations since that year, so he's already established himself as a minor league journeyman despite still retain some long-term potential. He really needs a full year at AAA for some team to see if he can regain his previous dominance while also maintaining a low walk rate. The main concern of scouts in the past is that he's not particularly overpowering, so you'd really need to see AAA consistency before even considering him for a major league job or fantasy roster.
While Valdes pitched well as a starter for AAA Richmond, he's demonstrated very little major league talent in six different mostly extended cups-of-coffee. He both walks too many batters and strikes out too few, and considering he's already 30, he shouldn't receive too many more opportunities in the majors. If he can maintain a high level of skill in AAA, some team will give him another long look, but there's a lot of evidence against him having extended major league success.
Rose keeps bouncing between organizations as no one wants to put much effort into a pitcher with limited strikeout potential, but most people like his excellent command in the minors. He seems unlikely to emerge for another season or two and might be best served by a full season as a starter in AAA. I don't believe that he'll have much if any roto value in 2002, so you should wait and revisit him next year to see if he's regained any potential.
One of the funniest comments in any Rotisserie League Baseball edition was written about Painter in the 1999 edition. "His name sounds like a medieval profession." His command deteriorated badly in 2001 due to injury, so he should return to a previously successful set of skills in 2002. Much of his value will depend on his role, so don't acquire him until you know he'll just be in middle or long relief in a relatively good pitchers' park, since he does have an occasional nasty tendency to allow too many homers.
At age 45, Orosco just keeps rolling along. He pitched better in 2001 than in any year since at least 1995, compiling a 21:7 K:BB in 16 IP. If he can repeat this performance every year, he'll stay marginally valuable until he's 50. There's no reason to draft him at this point as he could post a 10+ ERA as easily as a 3.00 or less, but he's sure fun to watch return year after year after year after year, unless, of course, you're a Dodger fan and would like to see someone pitching who isn't a probable grandfather.
Taylor also managed to hang around for another year despite his pitches appearing even more hittable for AAA batters. He probably should hang it up, but if he can somehow start fooling batters again, he still has enough command to stick around another year or two. Like Orosco, he isn't someone that you'll want on your fantasy team.
Knott showed great potential at AAA as an extreme control pitcher. He only allowed 8 walks for the second year at AAA in 73.1 IP, along with an acceptable 43 strikeouts. While he doesn't offer as much potential as a harder thrower, his success in the upper minors leaves him nicely positioned to win a role as a reliever in Spring Training.
Brohawn allowed lefties to tattoo him for a .386 BA, forcing the Diamondbacks to go out and acquire a true lefty specialist since they don't recognize the concept of free talent. While he's had success with excellent command in the minors, his time in the majors in 2001 leaves him unlikely to receive many more opportunities. He probably should look for a new organization when possible, since Arizona seems set with the oldest lefty relievers available that don't actually yet own AARP cards
He may have the best name of any real prospect in the minors. Spooneybarger pitched great at AAA last year, posting a 58:21 K:BB ratio in 50.2 IP. He's certainly ready to contribute to Atlanta's bullpen, and he's also their best bet to close after Smoltz. If you want a young middle reliever with good skills and significant upside, grab him for a buck or two. He certainly shouldn't hurt your numbers and might even add a few wins and saves.
Mota's been passed in the Montreal bullpen by Strickland and a couple other pitchers with far superior strikeout rates. His only success has occurred when he's managed to keep his walk rate quite low, and he hasn't been able to sustain this over any full season. Despite his apparent proximity to the closer's job, he doesn't have the skills to keep it if offered the chance.
Duncan was one of the few autographs we acquired this year over a few Cubs' games. He finally showed why he'd formerly been designated a "closer of the future" in Chicago as he struck out well over a batter per inning while also maintaining good command. He'll have to impress in Spring Training if he wants to hold off Chiasson and Carlos Zambrano, and since he hasn't reached these levels before, he'll need to keep working to stay in the Cubs' almost-loaded bullpen. Several other teams should be willing to give him a chance after the Cubs dump him, so MacPhail should probably look to deal him now since the Cubs have some depth and shouldn't lose another decent major leaguer without receiving anything in return.
Today's Fantasy Rx: Jess keeps saying that I'm referring to much to "acceptable strikeout levels" and "unacceptable walk levels", etc. without explaining what I mean. So here's what I mean: These are only guidelines, but they're the approximate numbers I use with my descriptions. Acceptable strikeout rate: 6 K/9. Barely acceptable: 4.5 K/9. Good: 7.5 K/9. Excellent: 9+ K/9. Acceptable walk rate: 3 BB/9. Barely acceptable: 3.5 BB/9. Good: 2.5 BB/9. Excellent: 2- BB/9. Corollary to the previous rates that allows low strikeout and high walk rates: Acceptable K:BB rate: 2. Barely acceptable: 1.75 K:BB. Good: 2.5 K:BB. Excellent: 3+ K:BB. Targeted homer rate: no worse than 1.2 HR/9. Acceptable: 1 HR/9. Good .8- HR/9. Targeted hit rate: not much above 1 H/IP. Higher rates are acceptable when the other numbers are good. A study by Voros McCracken last off-season suggested that hit rates and OBA (Opposition Batting Average) are almost completely random with rare exceptions at the top and bottom of the yearly rankings. So high hit rates may not indicate low future potential, and low hit rates might not indicate great future potential, although they certainly do suggest great future potential for pitchers like Nick Neugebauer. I hope this helps explain some of my reviews, but please e-mail me if you have further questions.
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