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January
10th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Pitcher Month: NL Starters

by Tim Polko

After additional consideration of the structure of Pitcher Month, we're going to drop the "Week" idea for NL Starters, NL Reliever, etc. Both starters and relievers really need more than just four days, so I'm going to take an additional day or two so that I can keep my comments more original and interesting, instead of becoming bogged down in "He has no command so don't draft him."

So for the rest of the National League, likely continuing through next weekend (over a week from now), we'll review the rest of the NL Starters, then go right to NL Relievers, and then consider pitching prospects on each team as a group to better understand their probable future roles. Hopefully, this revised format will be more accessible to readers and allow for more constructive analysis, especially of prospects whose future assignments can change quickly based on a manager's whim.

National League Starting Pitchers from $-3 to $-4 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

77. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Jose Acevedo 5 0 5.44 1.41 68 34 101 58 96.0
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 1 -4 1
2001 Age: 245x5: -3 2 -5 3

He's perhaps my favorite pitching sleeper for next season. Acevedo shows both good command and dominance, and if the Reds smartly keep him in the rotation instead of AAA or the bullpen, he could surprise them with a very acceptable season. He mixed together a couple blowouts with several great starts during the last two months of the year, and you should definitely target this guy for Dollar Days.


78. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Chris Reitsma 7 0 5.29 1.42 96 49 209 107 182.0
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 1 -4 1
2001 Age: 235x5: -2 2 -4 3 Res

Reitsma doesn't have much upside due to his low strikeout rates. He does possess enough control to allow him to see solid success, but he'll always be at risk to slip unless he starts seeing more K's. I like him at around a couple bucks, although I'd have a hard time spending much more than that on him.


79. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Amaury Telemaco 5 0 5.54 1.40 59 32 93 55 89.1
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 1 -4 1
2001 Age: 275x5: -2 2 -4 3

Telemaco still shows some potential to excel in the majors someday, even if he is no longer a prospect and seems likely to return to waiver-bait status. His upside is relatively low and leaves him more likely to settle into a long relief or spot starter role. Unless he has an established role as a starter on draft day, you should probably avoid him in 2002 as anything other than an injury replacement.


80. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Darren Dreifort 4 0 5.13 1.44 91 47 89 54 94.2
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -4 1 14
2001 Age: 295x5: -2 2 -4 3 15

Unfortunately, this chain of events should surprise no one. A solid pitcher without stamina demands to start. He finds some success, leading to his current team to severely overpay him. Unwilling to return to the bullpen, he promptly blows out his arm. Dreifort should the miss the entire season due to his and the Dodgers' incompetent inability to place him in the proper role after he got his money. Only bid about a buck in speculation for 2003, especially since he walks too many guys in the first place.


81. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Jason Middlebrook 2 0 5.12 1.45 10 10 18 11 18.1
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -5 1
2001 Age: 265x5: -5 1 -8 1

Try your best not to confuse San Diego's solid #3 starters with either their top prospects or older future AAAA pitchers like Middlebrook. He'll never find extraordinary success since he doesn't strike out that many batters. His command needs to be excellent for him to even stay in the majors, so I find it more likely that he'll spend a few years bouncing around different systems in long relief until he finds a few years of success, perhaps in a way similar to someone like Gil Heredia.


82. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Jesus Sanchez 2 0 4.74 1.47 46 31 61 33 62.2
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -3 0 -5 1 Res
2001 Age: 265x5: -4 1 -6 2 Res

While I still think the Cubs made a bad trade by dealing Nate Teut to acquire him, Sanchez might find some success if left alone in the rotation. He shows more potential as a starter than in the bullpen, and you might want to gamble a buck or two if he wins a starting job. Deal him as soon as he wins five games, since he doesn't appear in Chicago's long-term plans with the wealth of pitching prospects about to reach the majors.


83. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Bronson Arroyo 5 0 5.09 1.51 39 34 99 50 88.1
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -5 0
2001 Age: 245x5: -4 1 -7 1 1

Arroyo did not show much talent as either a starter or reliever. He strikes out very few batters and walks almost as many, leading to a very bad situation often involving runners on base. While he showed some upside in the second half as his command improved, he appears to need at least another few months in the minors before he'll see any significant success in the majors.


84. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Matt Clement 9 0 5.05 1.52 134 85 172 95 169.1
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -5 0 3
2001 Age: 265x5: -1 3 -2 4 8

I was all ready to start telling you to stay away from Clement until I noticed some very promising signs of improvement in the second half. He cut his walk rate by over 1 BB/9 as he increased his strikeout rate to almost a batter per inning. I still believe that Florida should trade him instead of awarding him arbitration-induced salary increases since they have alternatives, and I'm even more sure of that decision since he should pitch great in the beginning of 2002, significantly increasing his trade value. You're going to want to pick this guy up for almost anything in single digits, but consider dealing him before the All-Star break if he's been on a roll at any point.


85. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Bobby J. Jones 8 0 5.12 1.48 113 38 250 111 195.0
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -5 0 3
2001 Age: 295x5: -2 2 -4 3 1

Jones posted his best K:BB in several seasons, but all his great command allowed him was an overabundance of base hits. He'll likely see a fall in OBA, so he should be a good acquisition for the first few months. The Padres will trade him at their first opportunity to open up roster spots for prospects and to avoid paying a few months of his mildly inflated salary. Some owners will avoid his 5.00+ ERA. Grab him cheap and then deal him in mid-May when he's in the high 3.00s.


86. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Matt Blank 2 0 5.16 1.59 11 13 23 13 22.2
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -3 0 -5 0
2001 Age: 255x5: -5 0 -9 0

Blank demonstrated little command at AAA, giving the Expos no reason to call him up again. He needs at least another full year in the minors, but he seems to have such a low ceiling that I'm not certain much more development time is warranted. There is no reason to acquire him for your roster.


87. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Gary Knotts 0 0 6.00 1.33 9 1 7 4 6.0
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -6 0
2001 Age: 245x5: -6 0 -9 0

Knotts broke through to the majors after a very successful first AAA season. He's probably good enough to slot in as a fifth starter immediately even if his ceiling is lower than a few other Florida prospects. He won't hurt if given a full time job, so while I wouldn't spend a minor league pick on him with all the competition, I'd definitely a consider a FAAB grab if he appears to earn a defined role immediately upon his callup.


88. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Mike Thurman 9 0 5.33 1.51 96 50 172 87 147.0
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -3 0 -6 0
2001 Age: 275x5: -3 2 -5 3 1

Montreal non-tendering Thurman wasn't much of a surprise considering he's had injury problems, negating his value as an innings' eater, and doesn't show great potential dominance, leaving him only as a #3 starter behind Vazquez and Armas. He definitely has the skills to find a few years of success, and he also began showing more consistency throughout the year. He's a much better gamble than the similarly non-tendered Jimmy Haynes, and he might surprise you if some team gives him a chance as a #4 or #5 in 2002.


89. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Denny Neagle 9 0 5.38 1.48 139 60 192 102 170.2
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -3 0 -6 0 1
2001 Age: 325x5: -1 3 -3 4 Res

Neagle's signing expectedly blew up in the Rockies' face as defying conventional wisdom to put a soft-tosser in Coors didn't appear to have much success. He didn't even pitch that well on the road, so he likely won't work well in a platoon. I still like his chances for success as he demonstrated solid skills despite a bad hit rate and ERA, but he's really not worth a bid in most leagues at this time.


90. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Kyle Peterson 1 0 5.52 1.57 12 4 19 9 17.2
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:L4x4: -3 0 -6 0
2001 Age: 255x5: -5 0 -9 0

Peterson doesn't strike many batters out, leaving him without much upside and too homer-prone to find much success in Miller Park. I still like him based on his relatively solid debut in 1999, although I'm hesitant to recommend him at this time due to concerns about a potentially recurring arm injury and his lack of a defined role in Milwaukee. He would likely benefit from another year at AAA to focus on reducing his hit rate, so you should probably leave him alone in 2002.


91. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Hideki Irabu 0 0 4.86 1.50 18 3 22 9 16.2
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 0 -6 0 3
2001 Age: 325x5: -5 0 -9 0 3

Irabu continues to flash a very nice set of skills when he can actually make it on the field between injuries and suspensions. He offers a lot of potential if he can keep his homer rate low, a prospect somewhat unlikely in his new Texas home. I still like his upside, so if you can grab him in a reserve round and stash him away, he might surprise you in mid-June when he's needed to replace an injured Ranger starter.


92. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Ryan Jensen 1 0 4.25 1.63 26 25 44 20 42.1
SF Giants DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 0 -6 0
2001 Age:255x5: -5 0 -8 0

Jensen is already a very capable fifth starter with the upside to move up another place or two in the rotation. The Giants will give him the opportunity to compete with Kurt Ainsworth, although they might be better off letting them both pitch and sticking Livan Hernandez in the bullpen where his arm might not receive quite so much abuse. He doesn't have a great ceiling, but I'd consider picking up Jenkins with perhaps a late round minor league pick, since he'll likely provide some benefit to both San Francisco and your roto team by the end of the season.


93. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Tony McKnight 3 0 4.95 1.52 46 24 109 48 87.1
HOU / PIT DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:L4x4: -4 0 -6 0
2001 Age: 245x5: -5 1 -8 1

McKnight will certainly benefit from departing Enron as he both strikes out few batters and allows too many home runs. I don't expect him to see great success in Pittsburgh, but he should be a decent alternative as a #4 or #5 starter for a few seasons. He's not someone upon whom I'd bank my title dreams, although I'd be happy to grab him as a reserve and injury replacement.


94. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Jason Grilli 2 0 6.08 1.54 17 11 30 18 26.2
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 0 -6 -1
2001 Age: 245x5: -6 0 -9 0 Res

Grilli continues to show little command in his third full season above AA, and his chances of a long-term major league career seem to be diminishing. He's been passed by several other prospects in Florida and will be lucky to receive a full-time shot as a starter in majors for them. There's no reason to pick up anyone with skills this week, although he might regain some potential if he could somehow cut his walk rate in half.


95. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Nick Neugebauer 1 0 7.50 2.00 11 6 6 5 6.0
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 0 -6 -1
2001 Age: 205x5: -6 0 -9 0 Res

For those of you that aren't familiar with the computer game Civilization and its successors, it's a simulation wherein you build your empire from one city in 4000 BC to a thriving modern-day society of space exploration. One of the neat features is the ability to build "Wonders of the World" to help your civilization. Wonders can help in different ways by making your people happier, increasing their scientific knowledge, or even aiding your military units. The Lighthouse and Magellan's Expedition wonders each add an additional movement point onto your ships.

We'd support the establishment of a Nick Neugebauer Wonder of the World. We envision this wonder to add two full movement points to each of your units. The "catch" would be that if you use the second movement, then your unit would then move a third space in some random direction. This Wonder would accurately represent both Neugebauer's velocity and strikeout totals, but also his frequent bouts of wildness that might keep him from reaching his full potential.

Neugebauer has more upside than any pitcher in baseball except perhaps Josh Beckett. His MLE strikeout rates compare favorably with the best in the game, and even though he's likely to miss time due to injury, he's still someone to target in any league. He appeared to finally put it together in 2001 in the minors by cutting his walk rate in half, although his arm surgery might delay the appearance of those skills in the majors.


96. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Tim Redding 3 0 5.50 1.54 55 24 62 34 55.2
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1
2001 Age: 235x5: -5 1 -8 -1

Redding offers as much potential as Oswalt or Hernandez if he can stay healthy. He's been worked somewhat much for his age, so Houston will need to be careful with him in the near future. Behind a rotation of Oswalt, Miller, Reynolds, and perhaps Mlicki, Jimy Williams should alternate Redding and Hernandez as the fifth starter and long reliever to both increase positive match-ups and decrease their workloads. He definitely warrants a marginally good minor league pick or couple dollars in the auction despite the normal Enron concerns.


97. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Rob Bell 0 0 5.48 1.42 33 17 46 27 44.1
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1 2
2001 Age: 245x5: -5 0 -9 0 6

Bell actually pitched reasonably well prior to the trade as his ERA was inflated solely due to an overabundance of home runs aided by the hitter-friendly modifications of Cinergy. He unsurprisingly struggled upon reaching the AL, and considering Cincinnati's wealth of outfielders, probably should have remained with them. I think he still possesses significant potential but needs a pitcher-friendly park in which to establish himself.


98. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Joey Hamilton 1 0 6.23 1.67 10 6 23 12 17.1
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1
2001 Age: 305x5: -6 0 -10 0

Hamilton finally appears to be recovering from overuse in his San Diego days. His K:BB peeked above 2 for the first time since before the Padres were in the World Series and Dave Stewart began mentoring him. With Hamilton returning to Cincy on a minor league deal, he offers definite potential if he can show even small gains on his 2001 performance. His upside remains somewhat low at this point, but after another year of stability following his arm problems, he may be on the way to double-digit value in 2003..


99. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Shawn Chacon. 6 0 5.06 1.53 134 87 157 90 160.0
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1
2001 Age: 235x5: -2 2 -4 3

Chacon pitched rather well considering his home field, and he could even earn PDV next season if he can carry his 2001 first half skills throughout all of 2002. He offers significant potential anywhere outside of Coors, so immediately grab him if he's dealt or you have the flexibility to only use him in road games. There's a chance that he might offer a profit in strikeout leagues, but remain as cautious with him as with all other Rockie pitchers.


100. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Jimmy Anderson 9 0 5.10 1.53 89 83 232 117 206.1
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1 1
2001 Age: 245x5: -4 1 -7 2 2

I know some writers really like Anderson, but he doesn't even appear to belong in the majors right now. His skills are worse than all three White Sox' pitchers acquired for Todd Ritchie. Considering the Pirates' problems on offense and somewhat irregular defense, there's simply no reason for an intelligent owner to acquire Anderson in 2002 unless he shows some major improvement over the first few months of the season.


101. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Robert Ellis 6 0 5.77 1.52 41 34 106 59 92.0
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1
2001 Age: 305x5: -4 1 -7 2

Ellis does not appear to possess the skills necessary to pitch successfully in the majors. His strikeout rates are quite poor, limiting his upside even if he could improve his command. Do not draft him if he somehow returns to the Snakes' 2002 rotation.


102. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Kent Bottenfield 2 1 6.40 1.48 39 16 61 37 52.0
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -4 -1 -7 -1
2001 Age: 325x5: -6 0 -9 0 1

Bottenfield's career appears to be in jeopardy due to relatively weak skills and free agency following major arm surgery. He's unlikely to pitch in 2002, and offers little potential for the future. You shouldn't aquire him unless he shows good command for a few months whenever he returns to pitching.


National League Starters will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm hoping to run some appropriate comps for So Taguchi and Kaz Ishii, but I'm interested in what our readers think. Is there any current or former MLB player that would be an appropriate comparison in a way similar to calling Satoru Komiyama the "Japanese Bob Tewksbury"? I'll be happy to post any suggestions I receive along with my picks when I have a chance to review the numbers, so please send in your thoughts.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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