On the Twelfth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
AL Central n West "Prospects",
AL East "Prospects",
AL without PDV,
AL PDV under 10,
AL PDV in the tens,
AL PDV of 20+,
NL West "Prospects",
N L Cen-tral "Prospects",
NL East "Prospects",
NL without PDV,
Single-Digit NL PDV,
and National Leaguers with Double-Digit PDV.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the American League Central

Chicago White Sox
Minor League Free Agents:
Jeff Barry, 32, B:S, T:R. Exhibit number twelve or so that displays Kenny Williams' incompetence as a General Manager. He thought the Sox were acquiring pitcher Jon Berry in the James Baldwin' trade but he didn't confirm the identity of the B*rry in question, a Barry, Berry bad move. So instead of acquiring a reliever with some promise, he picked up an extra outfielder for the last 13 games of AAA Charlotte's season. Barry has some pop, a little speed, and even above average plate discipline, but none of his minor league seasons outside of AAA Colorado Springs indicate that he'd have any long-term success in the majors. I expect him to see another cup-of-coffee or two, but he has no chance of contributing to a roto team.
Rick Prieto, 28, B:S, T:R. Prieto has significant major league potential even at his advanced age, due to solid speed and fantastic plate discipline, above a 1 BB:K ratio in each of his last three seasons at AA. He's been held back because he lacks power, but considering he even plays a decent 2B, he could certainly help some teams out as at least a defensive backup. With his on-base and speed abilities, he could be a very useful part of some teams, and you should definitely use him as an injury replacement if he finds a major league job.

Prospects:
Jeff Inglin, 25, B:R, T:R. Inglin finally spent a full year at AAA Charlotte after splitting the previous two seasons between AA and AAA. He certainly possesses enough power to contribute in the majors, but despite a relatively acceptable walk rate, he likely strikes out too much to see an opportunity with the White Sox. Expect him to depart as a minor league free agent after this season, potentially sticking with a team in another year or two as his power matures.
Mario Valenzuela, 24, B:R, T:R. Valenzuela surprised many in minor league baseball by becoming the first player to hit three homers in a game in the Arizona Fall League. He doesn't appear to have great potential since his plate discipline is weak, but he has good power upside and even a little speed. If he starts out solidly in his first full year in AAA, the Sox should look to trade him to an organization that could actually use a right-handed hitting corner outfielder without a very high ceiling.
Joe Borchard, 22, B:S, T:R. He may be the best pure power hitter in the minor leagues, and if he's somehow not owned in your keeper league, you'll probably need the first minor league pick to grab him. Borchard played great at AA Birmingham in his first full year in the minors, and despite slightly below average speed, his defense is likely good enough to allow him to remain in centerfield for at least a few years in Chicago. While he'll eventually slide over to left, if he can reduce his strikeouts while maintaining a 13% walk rate, he'll provide a great addition to both the White Sox' lineup and yours.
Darron Ingram, 25, B:R, T:R. While outwardly Ingram had similar numbers to Borchard, his SLG was weaker, his plate discipline noticeably worse, and his BA was too low to keep up an unacceptable .330 OBP. He has the potential to emerge as a decent right-handed platoon player in a few seasons, but his opportunity certainly won't arrive with the White Sox.

Cleveland Indians
Minor League Free Agents:
Mark Budzinski, 27, B:L, T:L. Budzinski doesn't possess the tools necessary to rise above AAA considering his plate discipline is relatively horrible. He'll see more AAA opportunities since he has some speed and decent doubles' power, but I'd be quite surprised if he ever sees more than a cup-of-coffee.
Chad Green, 26, B:S, T:R. A former Milwaukee "top" prospect, the Brewers gave up on him when they realized that he'd likely never control the strike zone to the extent necessary for any major league success. Despite solid power potential, Green will be lucky to see the majors since his power isn't really as good as at least a dozen other minor league free agent outfielders. Avoid him since his tools will only serve to drop your BA to unacceptable levels.
Jesus Hernandez, 24, B:L, T:L. Hernandez has only seen fourteen at-bats above AA, so he's somewhat unlikely to ever make the majors. His plate discipline is only average, and neither his power nor speed appear to be anything special. He'll need to hope that someone thinks he'd be a decent backup at AA, since he's at risk to completely slide out of professional baseball.
Scott Krause, 27, B:R, T:R. Another failed Brewer "prospect", Krause slipped to AA with Cleveland after three years at AAA in Milwaukee. He's never slugged below .429 in the upper minors, but while he has solid power potential and even a little speed, he has no concept of the location of the strike zone. He'll be lucky to see AAA action, and his chances of making the majors appear quite remote.
Chad Whitaker, 24, B:L, T:R. Whitaker's never seen any action above AA, and his numbers to date at that level also appear quite unimpressive. His BA and OBP are both poor, largely due to a complete lack of plate discipline. While he has a little power, now that he's "free" from Cleveland, his best bet might be to head to the independent leagues, since I can't see most major league teams giving this non-prospect serious AA time.

Prospects:
Jon Hamilton, 23, B:L, T:L. Hamilton appears to have enough tools to contribute in the majors, but his time there will be limited unless he reduces his strikeouts. He should probably repeat AA for a third straight year, since while his SLG increased from .361 to .456, his plate discipline slipped and his SB% fell under 50% for the first time. While he might be able to contribute in Cleveland in a few years, he may not be ready by the time he reaches minor league free agency, especially considering that Lawton, Escobar, and Bradley are all under the Indians' control for the next four years.

Detroit Tigers
Minor League Free Agents:
Jermaine Allensworth, 29, B:R, T:R. A former Pirates' starting centerfielder, Allensworth has been stuck in the minors for the past two seasons because his OBP was mired in the very low .300s in his last two years in the majors. His speed also decreased as he aged, and without even an acceptable walk rate, teams will not tolerate a BA only slightly above .200. He also lacks much power potential, so while he'll be a decent AAA player for a few more years, I don't expect him to receive much time in the majors.
Rich Becker, 29, B:L, T:L. I still don't understand why a capable centerfielder with decent speed and a career .358 OBP is stuck in AAA for a full season when teams continue to complain about the lack of quality leadoff guys. I realize that Becker doesn't have much power, but he could easily provide an above average 400 at-bats in the leadoff slot. If he finds a starting job, don't hesitate to grab him as your fifth outfielder. He retains good BA/SB upside, although you'll need to find your power elsewhere.
Kurt Bierek, 28, B:L, T:R. Bierek has enough ability to warrant a major league tryout some September, and he could find a few seasons in the bigs if he succeeds in that brief opportunity. He has solid power and relatively good plate discipline, and his career almost 12% walk rate is good enough for many teams. None of his skills overly impress me, but I certainly think some team could use his specific abilities for a year or two.
Trace Coquillette, 27, B:R, T:R. Montreal cut him loose after 2000 and an unimpressive performance when they auditioned for the starting 3B job. He's turning into a AAA utility guy with the ability to play capably at 2B, 3B, and the outfield. None of his skills suggest that he'll be able to perform at an average offensive level if given another opportunity, so you'll want to stay away from him as he sorts through NRIs over the next few years.

Prospects:
Rich Gomez, 23, B:R, T:R. Gomez has an excellent set of skills including an average 40 steals a season at an 86% success rate, a .290 BA, and .458 SLG in pitchers' leagues. Despite a .371 OBP, his BB:K is quite weak at under .5, so his long term prospects rest on someone teaching him to occasionally walk to first base. While he has a good all-around season at AA Erie, he really needs a return trip to show that he can develop with additional playing time. He's a solid roto prospect due to his power/speed upside, but don't spend more than a mid-round pick on him until his BB:K ratio starts edging up.
Rodney Lindsey, 25, B:R, T:R. Lindsey has great speed and some doubles' power but likely won't advance past AA until he learns some plate discipline. His ascent through the minors has gone very slowly, including both a mid-season promotion and two mid-season demotions. I don't expect him to find much success at AAA until his walk rate improves, leaving him without much status as a prospect.
Andres Torres, 23, B:S, T:R. Baseball America rated Torres as possessing perhaps the best pure speed in the minors, a capability that he just didn't demonstrate this season in only 252 AB at AA Erie. His plate discipline is barely average but he walks enough to maintain a high BA, which his speed also helps to maintain through a large number of infield hits. We need to consider him as a great roto prospect because of his SB potential, although since he is at least a full year away from producing in the majors, don't overdraft him at this point.

Kansas City Royals
Minor League Free Agents:
Aaron Guiel, 28, B:L, T:R. Guiel might find a cup-of-coffee in the next few seasons, an opportunity that he certainly deserves with his good power and above average walk rate. He still strikes out too much and doesn't possess many other tools, but anyone with minor league career averages of .282/.386/.491 BA/OBP/SLG needs to see some time in the majors. I'd gamble on him if he finds at least a platoon job, but his plate discipline is a little too weak for me to recommend him in a limited number of at-bats.
Pat Hallmark, 27, B:R, T:R. Hallmark only managed 93 at-bats this season after a fantastic 2000 at AA Wichita where he hit .326 with 41 steals, .409 OBP, and .355 SLG. His plate discipline remained solid at 52:74 BB:K, so he should have been prepared to capitalize on those gains. Unfortunately, he's needed two years to master every other level, and now that he's adrift in Minor League Free Agency Land, he doesn't have a great chance to find that AAA development time. He has the potential to mature into a decent major leaguer for a few seasons with good speed upside, so if you see him receiving that opportunity, consider spending a very low minor league pick on him.
Jed Hansen, 28, B:R, T:R. Hansen's been with three different teams in each of the last two seasons, so I'd expect him to look for some stability in 2002. Kansas City did give him two brief major league chances, but he was unable to improve after hitting .309 in 94 at-bats in 1997. He might have developed decent power, although its hard to judge in these limited sample sizes. I think he has a good chance to make it back to the majors, especially since he can play about every position, though I can't recommend him at this time due to his unknown current level of skill.
Jon Nunnally, 29, B:L, T:R. Nunnally certainly should receive more major league time since he has good power/speed upside, solid to very good plate discipline, and the ability to play center in the majors. He missed his best shot with Cincinnati in 1998 since they didn't appreciate his .207 BA even with a 34:38 BB:K ratio. The lesson here is that most teams don't care about your plate discipline if you can't maintain an average in the mid-.200s, unless you have some other dominant tool. Since Nunnally isn't spectacular in any area, he should look for a team with a weak and/or injury prone major league outfield.
Pat Watkins, 28, B:R, T:R. Watkins never really carried his tools with him from a great A+ season in 1994 to the upper minors. His plate discipline slipped to a level from which he's not recovered, his homer power almost disappeared, and he hasn't stolen even half of those 31 bases for any team. With his currently weak BB:K ratio, even if he manages to return to the majors, I doubt he'll find much success there, although he definitely will hang around AAA for a few more seasons.

Prospects:
Joe Caruso, 26, B:R, T:R. Caruso's a true utility guy, in that he saw at least one game at every position this season, including pitcher. His plate discipline is fairly good, which keeps his OBP at about .377 after two seasons at AA Wichita. He should have been promoted to AAA this year, but Kansas City kept him back and he not unexpectedly slipped a little. They definitely need to move him to AAA in 2002, and they might still have a solid 25th man in another year or two. While Caruso isn't really a prospect, he definitely will deserve the opportunity to help a major league team.
Alexis Gomez, 20, B:L, T:L. Gomez certainly has enough time to mature into a good major leaguer, but the Royals rushed him to AA on the basis of a high BA without any real secondary skills. He needs another full year at that level, especially since he doesn't appear to really know how to play baseball. While he has good speed, his SB% is only 67%, and his rather poor career 115:282 BB:K ratio doesn't indicate much future success. Gomez passes for a prospect in Kansas City, although I don't expect him in the majors before 2004 at the earliest.
Brian Shackelford, 24, B:L, T:L. Shackelford possess the same weaknesses as Gomez without much upside other than a great last name. He doesn't have much speed, and his power isn't good enough to make the majors without correspondingly solid plate discipline. Don't expect him to even have much AAA success at this point. The Royals really should send him back to AA for another and he hope that, unlike their other "prospects", this guy can magically learn the strike zone.

Minnesota Twins
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Mike Ryan, 23, B:L, T:R. Ryan's received very little press, but I definitely think he has solid major league potential. While Edmonton's a great hitters' park, he still managed to reach a .475+ SLG for the first time, and his walk rate increased to an acceptable 10%. His 52:121 BB:K remains unacceptable, although he's managed a 1:1 ratio as recently as 1999 at A+ Fort Myers. I'd leave Ryan at AAA for another season with the instructions to focus on waiting for his pitch, and I certainly expect him to be able to at least succeed Ortiz as the Twins' DH next season. Strongly consider picking this guy up with a low minor league pick, since while he might slip and leave the Twins as a minor league free agent, I instead expect he'll be up in September with a chance to start in 2003.
Mike Restovich, 22, B:R, T:R. Perhaps the Twins' best power prospect, Restovich rebounded nicely from a somewhat weak 2000 at A+ ball to put up some nice numbers at AA New Britain, including a .489 SLG. He stole over another dozen bases, and while his game still appears quite raw, he's on-target to reach the majors sometime in 2003. If you already own him, deal him if the Twins bring him up before September at the earliest, since his 54:125 BB:K is unacceptable for AA and will need to somehow improve at AAA for him to maintain a decent BA in the majors. Since he's likely already owned in your league, see if his owner missed his improvement this season and is willing to deal, although this might be a prospect that you'll have to avoid for now.
Lew Ford, 24, B:R, T:R. Ford hasn't shown much in AA so I probably shouldn't mention him, but I wanted to say something after a great 2000. He stole 52 bases for A Augustin at a 93% success rate, and while both his qualitative and quantitative numbers slipped this year, he'll still be a very nice fourth outfielder when he makes the majors in late 2003. His plate discipline has remained acceptably good throughout his three minor league seasons, and if you don't mind waiting two or three seasons for him to mature, you should consider a low pick on this guy, although he might also be available next year.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the American League West

Anaheim Angels
Minor League Free Agents:
Scott Morgan, 27, B:R, T:R. He has solid power potential but displayed no evidence that he can maintain enough control of the strike zone to allow a respectable BA in the majors. Several teams could use his particular skills as a right-handed power platoon hitter to a young lefty outfielder. Unless he finds a similar role, an unlikely proposition at best, don't pick him up since his weak plate discipline will lead to BA pain.
J.R. Mounts, 22, B:R, T:R. Mounts hasn't even made it to AA after five minor league seasons. He might have the worst plate discipline in the minors, since after these few years in A-ball, he still put up a 15:145 BB:K in 387 AB at A+ Rancho Cucamonga. He'll be lucky to return to the minors next year, although he really should look at the independent leagues anyway, since they'll be more forgiving of his absurdly high number of strikeouts.
Juan Tolentino, 25, B:R, T:R. Tolentino's progressed at a slow and steady pace, ascending one level every season until he repeated AAA in 2001. He's shown significant speed, including 47 SB in AA, but his OBP is way too low to consider him for a leadoff role. His power has steadily increased over the last two seasons even while ascending to AAA; however, the small fact that he's spent these past two years in great hitters' parks probably disallows any objective gains. He could help out a team in a few years, although I wouldn't pick him up until he shows plate discipline improvement above his currently unacceptable levels.

Prospects:
Jeff Guiel, 27, B:L, T:R. The younger brother of Aaron Guiel, Jeff seems slightly weaker in all areas. He doesn't have as much power or speed as his brother, and despite flashes of good BB:K ratios, his plate discipline is no better than Aaron's. Jeff's only advantage is that he's fifteen months younger and has two years left with the Angels before minor league free agency, and based on his 2001 performance, he might mature into a decent fourth outfielder in that time. He already appears to be a capable fifth outfielder behind Orlando Palmeiro, but he'll need to fight guys like Jeff DaVanon for playing time. I probably wouldn't want Guiel on my roster in 2002 unless he shows more improvement.
Nathan Haynes, 21, B:L, T:L. While Haynes has tremendous raw speed, he appears to lack any real baseball skills. His career SB% is only 69%, a number that's not improved the past few seasons. His OBP is occasionally acceptable because of a high BA, but his plate discipline is relatively poor, and he has practically no power. He's still young enough to mature into a solid player, although I'm not prepared to recommend him since he's spent 800 at-bats with little improvement at AA and will likely need at least as much time at AAA.
Gary Johnson, 25, B:L, T:L. Its easy to distinguish Johnson from OF Gary Johnson of the Cubs, since despite both of them playing at AA in 2001, they're quite different players: this Johnson is a lefty while Chicago's is a righty. Anaheim's has slightly more power and plate discipline while having a little less speed. Neither of them even appear ready for AAA, so we won't have to worry about this distinction in detail for another two years or so.

Oakland Athletics
Minor League Free Agents:
Jesus Basabe, 24, B:R, T:R. The A's have kept Basabe around because he's shown significant power/speed upside for a player mired in A-ball. He won't be staying with the organization, because he lacks any command of the strike zone. Some team might give him a tryout in AA, but I think he's at least several years away from even good AAA stats, so definitely avoid him at this time.

Prospects:
Ryan Ludwick, 22, B:R, T:L. Ludwick is the latest example of a right-handed A's power prospect who's career has gotten a nice boost from AA Midland. Unlike Piatt, Ortiz, and Hart, Ludwick basically repeated his A+ Modesto numbers at a higher level while showing a slight improvement in plate discipline. I have concern as to his long-term prospects, because he didn't make drastic gains in such a great hitters' environment, but Ludwick still remains one of the best power prospects in the American League and one of the overall best outfield prospects. He's definitely worthy of a high minor league pick.
Jacques Landry, 27, B:R, T:R. Landry's MVP-caliber season at AA caught many by surprise, but his raw numbers are far more impressive than his actual contribution. The 37 steals were a shock considering he'd never managed even half that total in six previous seasons. He successfully switched his doubles with his home run numbers, though this only boosted his SLG by 47 points up to .498. He'll likely see major league time in another year or two, although I think his prospects are limited to utility work, since he doesn't have great offensive potential and he can play several positions.

Seattle Mariners
Minor League Free Agents:
Chad Akers, 29, B:R, T:R. Akers is a AAA utility guy that lacks the tools to succeed in the majors. He swings at almost everything, driving down both his walk and strikeout rates. He's a nice guy to have around since he makes good contact and can field a few positions, but I just don't see anything more than a cup-of-coffee in this guy's future.
Chad Alexander, 27, B:R, T:R. Alexander seems to be maturing into his peak power years even if he lacks speed or consistent on-base ability. He's really just a solid AAA player without enough talent to contribute at the major level beyond perhaps a fifth outfielder's slot. Since his plate discipline is only average at AAA, I wouldn't take a chance on him if he does make the majors for a brief time.
Juan Silvestre, 23, B:R, T:R. Silvestre displayed good power potential in A-ball but simply bombed when reaching AA this season. His walk rate fell by two-thirds to a horrible 6%, and he only managed a fifth of the 30 homers hit in 2000. He has the tools to someday develop into at least a solid AAA player, but he'll need to find an organization willing to give him that development time.

Prospects:
The Mariners own two fantastic outfield prospects that will first reach AA in 2002 in Chris Snelling and Jamal Strong. They're both great picks if available in your draft, though they won't contribute for at least two more years.
Kenny Kelly, 22, B:R, T:R. He's a former top football prospect that Tampa bought out of a college career and then inexplicably waived prior to last season. His skills are still quite raw, but he retains five tool potential by most accounts. He'll need a third year in AA to refine his skill and develop more plate discipline, and he really needs someone to teach him how to play baseball considering his 60% walk rate. Stan Javier might be a great tutor for this guy if he stays associated with the Mariners. Kelly's not worth anything above a very low pick at this point, though he could still mature into something special.
Jake Weber, 25, B:L, T:R. Weber's been stuck at AA for three straight seasons without showing any real improvement. The Mariners have to make a move with this guy, so I'm surprised he wasn't somehow picked in the minor league Rule Five draft. His plate discipline slipped from a peak of 60:56 BB:K in 2000, and while he has a little speed and some doubles' potential, I'm not sure he has enough tools to have success in AAA. All I can tell is that he needs a change of scenery, and if he stays with Seattle, they either need to send him down to dominate in A-ball or see if he can somehow hold his own in AAA.

Texas Rangers
Minor League Free Agents:
Chris Ashby, 26, B:R, T:R. Ashby doesn't appear to have enough power to succeed at AAA, so he might be best served by a "demotion" after most of three years at AAA. His plate discipline is below average, and he's struggled to hit much above .250 over his career. He showed good potential in the Yankee system a few years ago, but I just don't see the ability currently necessary for more AAA playing time.
Chuck Koone, 25, B:S, T:?. I have no record of Koone in professional baseball prior to 2001. Considering he only played in A-ball without much success, I doubt he'll have the chance to add much on to his career stats. Since he doesn't appear to possess either great power or speed upside, there's little reason for Texas to spend more time developing him.
Amaurys Nina, 23, B:R, T:R. Nina spent three years in the Dominican Summer League, another in the Rookie-level Appalachian League, and the last three at Charlotte in the Florida State League. The downside of signing toolsy sixteen-year-olds in Latin America is that many of them need a lot of development time, and despite some speed gifts, he doesn't appear to possess the skills needed to advance even to AA. He'll be lucky to remain in the minors next season.
Marc Sagmoen, 30, B:L, T:L. Sagmoen's only cup-of-coffee came with Texas in 1997, and he's really done very little to deserve another. He's varied little from a career .266 BA over the last several seasons, he lacks power upside and doesn't even have good plate discipline. He appears to be a solid player to help at AAA, but I just don't see the potential for him to succeed in the majors.

Prospects:
Curtis Goodwin, 28, B:L, T:L. While Goodwin retired after the Cubs dealt him to Toronto in 1999, he's returned to AAA after spending much of the last two years in the independent leagues. He still has great speed potential but lacks the plate discipline necessary to maintain an acceptable BA in the majors, and now perhaps even in AAA. With the number of potentially cheap speedsters available in 2002, Goodwin is not someone you should consider drafting even if he receives a spring training invite.
Kevin Mench, 23, B:R, T:R. Mench calmed down after a fantastic 2000 season at A+ Charlottle, and the most disappointing aspect of his 2001 AA Tulsa statistics was the plummet in his BB:K from 78:72 to 34:76. Along with over a hundred point drop in both OBP and SLG, these numbers don't allow any projection beyond a platoon outfielder in the majors. Texas should send him back to AA until he relearns the strike zone, since if he's rushed now, he may never develop. A slightly high mid-level draft pick is the most he deserves at the moment, although you should keep him if you already own him since his value is currently likely at a low point.

We'll review American League Designated Hitters and National League Pinch-Hitters tomorrow on our last day of position players. I hope you've enjoyed the last two weeks of outfielder reviews.

Today's Fantasy Rx: You should e-mail me with your requests as to how I should proceed for the beginning of next week. I'm intending to begin Pitcher Month on Monday, likely with National League starters, but I'd also be perfectly happy spending a couple days reviewing all the positions on offense and how they interact with each other. The alternative is to review the rotisserie roster as a whole in February, a decision that likely makes more sense since we'll have our first statistical projections finished by that time and the rosters will be more complete. Please let me know which tactic you would prefer.