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January
3rd
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
The Tenth Day of Outfielders

by Tim Polko

On the Tenth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
AL without PDV,
AL PDV under 10,
AL PDV in the tens,
AL PDV of 20+,
NL West "Prospects",
N L Cen-tral "Prospects",
NL East "Prospects",
NL without PDV,
Single-Digit NL PDV,
and National Leaguers with Double-Digit PDV.


American League Outfielders without PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

66. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Eugene Kingsale 195.2630134 OF-10
BAL / SEA DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 0111 Res
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 0111 Res

Kingsale's demonstrated solid speed at AAA but doesn't appear to have much of an idea of how to reach first base, with a 2001 AAA OBP around .300. Since he has almost no power, his value rests entirely upon his stolen base contributions. Without the ability to appear on-base consistently or remain in the majors for more than the briefest of time periods, I just don't see how he'll have the opportunities necessary to employ the speed that would make him draftable.


67. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brandon Berger 165.3132204 OF-5
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0101
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 0101

Cheese had an incredible year at AA Omaha, smashing 40 homers and over seventy extra-base hits in his first full year at that level. He even continued to show good speed, stealing over a dozen bases for his sixth straight year in the minors. His MLEs indicate significant SLG potential without enough plate discipline to warrant more than a platoon role. I'd like to see KC send him down for at least half the season and then see if his plate discipline allows the prospect of more playing time. Since he'll turn 27 in a few weeks, the Royals should be able to use him for all of peak years before letting him go sometime during his arbitration years.


68. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Eric Byrnes 389.2373519 OF-15
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0101
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 0111

Byrnes will have a good shot to win a roster spot in spring training since he's perhaps the best defensive center fielder in camp with Oakland. He's started adding longballs to his already noticeable doubles' power, and he's shown very good speed in the minors for years. His excellent plate discipline from the lower minors and AA hasn't translated so far in about a season and a half at AAA, but he's still young enough to mature into a starter for a few season. If he makes the team, he's definitely worth a dollar or two with his speed potential, and consider a mid-round minor league pick on him if he's sent back down.


69. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Chris Wakeland 369.2502605 OF-10
DET Tigers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 0100
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 0101

Detroit outrighted Wakeland a couple of days ago, indicating that despite more immediate potential than several of their players, they don't believe that he has the capability to start in the majors even after over a 1000 AAA at-bats. While he has little speed and weak plate discipline, he still has enough power potential to contribute, and he'll turn 28 before the 2002 season is half over. With these limitations and other prospects with higher ceilings reaching the upper levels of the Tiger system, I don't envision Wakeland as anything more than a fourth outfielder, and they might let him go as a minor league free agent at the end of the year.


70. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Tim Raines, Sr. 113.2731501 OF-2
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 0100
2001 Age: 41 5x5: 0000

Anyone who doesn't believe that Rock belongs in the Hall of Fame wasn't paying attention to baseball in the 1980's. Raines is certainly not as good as Rickey Henderson, although he's in his class as one of the top leadoff hitters in big league history. He was perhaps the top player in the league in 1986, as well as a few years immediately preceding that point, although his accomplishments north of the border were largely overlooked by mainstream media. Raines still possesses some of the best plate discipline in professional baseball, and if some team gives him an opportunity as a fifth outfielder, perhaps in Montreal's probable swan song, neither they nor his rotisserie owners should be disappointed with his production. He may not have the skills to help much any more, but he's smart enough to play at a level that won't hurt any roster.


71. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Izzy Alcantara 3810.2630313 OF-8
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0100
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 0100

Alcantara likely would receive more opportunities if he played the game with more seriousness. His Boston opportunity ended when Jimy Williams observed him loafing after a fly ball, and while you can play the game with some nonchalance if you have the athleticism of Deion Sanders and Carlton Fisk isn't catching, right-handed power-hitters with bad plate discipline need to take advantage of every situation. Since Boston non-tendered Alcantara, he might be lucky to even find a spot in AAA considering his rather shoddy reputation. If he makes a roster, his power upside will compensate for his potential BA deficiency, although I don't think he can earn more than a couple bucks at best.


72. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Dave Roberts 124.333023 OF-13
CLE Roberts DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 0100
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 0100

Cleveland somehow was able to deal Roberts to LA for two borderline prospects, a haul that his abilities did not merit He has a little speed, but will never be on base often enough to take advantage of his singular skill. Roberts neither possesses the plate discipline nor power necessary to succeed in the majors, and he'll likely have even less success in the AL than in his brief appearances with Cleveland.


73. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ruben Mateo 12932.248113118 OF-39
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0000 16
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 0111 15

Aside from questions about his plate discipline, Mateo's major obstacle has been health. He's missed much of the last three seasons with a variety of ailments, and his major league statistics, to this point, do not suggest that he'll find immediate success even if he can finally stay healthy for a few hundred at-bats. I like his potential in Cincinnati, since he certainly has the tools to put up double-digit homers and steals with an average BA, but he may need another year or two to mature into his abilities before you bid more than a few bucks on his upside.


74. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Larry Bigbie 13130.229211415 OF-41
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 0000
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 0101

Bigbie needs a full year at AAA, and assuming he shows progress at that level, he'll emerge as the first internally-developed Baltimore outfielder in several seasons. He doesn't have great plate discipline, power, or speed, although he appears to have enough skill in each area to deserve a long look in the majors. Don't seriously consider him if he makes the team since he's still quite raw, but definitely consider a good minor league pick for him if Baltimore appears ready to give him that extra development time.


75. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Bo Porter 8720.23016318 OF-40
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0000
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 0101 Res

Porter will never have much long-term success due to only, at best, average plate discipline. He has some power potential although his value rests with his speed production. Texas didn't make much use of that skill, but he's been over twenty steals over five times in the minors. He shouldn't hurt you if he makes the roster as a fifth outfielder, but you really should be able to find someone with more upside.


76. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Craig Monroe 5211.2122528 OF-27
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 0000

Monroe appears set to emerge as at least a solid platoon player in the majors within the next few seasons. His plate discipline is average, which allows his power and speed potential enough opportunities to impress management. He doesn't have the raw tools necessary for an extended career in the majors. I'd be cautious when first bidding on him, and make sure that he has a part-time role guaranteed before adding him to your roster. While he might hurt you in BA in limited at-bats, I think his quantitative skills will more than compensate given enough playing time.


77. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Donzell McDonald 31.3330000 OF-3
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 28 5x5: -1000

McDonald's shown glimpses of plate discipline at lower levels, but he may be another player who has enough tools to make AAA without enough skills to regularly ascend above it. If he could secure a major league job, his speed potential makes him an attractive player to draft, as he could easily steal a dozen bases as a fifth outfielder. I don't expect him to receive many opportunities for another few years until he possibly develops more power, and he may never really warrant enough playing time to prove his limited talents. You should probably avoid him in the near future considering all this uncertainty surrounding his career.


78. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Tim Raines, Jr. 234.1740036 OF-7
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 21 5x5: 0000

Baltimore rushed Little Rock to the majors for publicity reasons, and now seems reluctant to give him enough development time. Judging by his current statistics, Raines needs at least another half season at AA, followed by nearly a full year at AAA before he'll be ready to take a spot on top of the Oriole order. He walks enough to keep his OBP at a respectable level, but he'll need to cut down on strikeouts and start showing a little more power before he'll deserve a starting job in the majors.


79. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ricky Ledee 24256.231236333 OF-76
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -1000 5
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 1111 5

Ledee's now in his baseball prime, and he still doesn't show enough skills to deserve anything more than a couple hundred at-bats as a fourth outfielder or worse. He has little power or speed, certainly not enough to show up in limited at-bats, and his below average plate discipline will keep his BA under a draftable level. Depending on where he signs, you'll likely want to hope that somebody else remembers the name from his playoff appearances with the Yankees, since any bid might be an overbid at this point.


80. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Robert Perez 154.2670001 OF-5
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 32 5x5: -1000

Perez is simply too old to have any sort of long-term major league success. His minor league skills have never shown up in his limited big league playing time, so we'll never know if he could have maintained a high enough BA to have value above AAA. Even if he makes a club, you probably don't want him on your roster since his major league plate discipline only supports a very weak BA.


81. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Milton Bradley 184.2220013 OF-9
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 23 5x5: -1000

Somebody should nickname Escobar "Parker Brothers", since with Bradley, all their whiffing will likely leave Cleveland fans quite board. Seriously, Bradley has the tools to turn into a very decent outfielder, although I can't see his worth ever exceeding the high teens. He really only has average power, speed, and plate discipline, and without a single overwhelming tool, we're left bidding on his athleticism and promise. I don't think most owners should even bid into the double-digits for him next year, and that's assuming that Cleveland will hand him a starting job. You'll probably want to let someone else overbid on his potential for the next year or two, at least until his major league plate discipline resembles his minor league numbers more closely.


82. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Darren Bragg 41.2500001 OF-3
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 31 5x5: -1000

Despite two somewhat poor seasons, Bragg still appears to have enough talent to succeed in the majors for a few more years. He needs to somehow find more consistency in executing his talent to prove his worth again. Since he doesn't offer teams more than a fourth outfielder, he'll be lucky to find more than a couple hundred more major league at-bats over the next few seasons, and unless the timing works out as an injury replacement, I doubt you'll want to spend a roster spot on him.


83. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
McKay Christensen 41.2500000 OF-6
CH White Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -1000

Christensen has never shown the skills necessary to put his tools to proper use. His SB% is fairly weak despite good raw speed, and his plate discipline is only slightly above average, meaning he won't be on-base often enough to even attempt too many steals. Until you see solid AAA plate BB:K progress, don't use Christensen as anything more than a short-term fill-in.


84. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jacob Cruz 6815.221311012 OF-23
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -1000 1
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 0000 1

Despite showing good homer potential in his limited big league time, he won't maintain a high enough BA to warrant a draft spot in most leagues. His plate discipline has remained below average over the last few seasons, and even his recent minor league time has left me unimpressed. He offers limited upside considering he's almost 30, so I wouldn't bother picking him up unless he winds up in a really nice situation, even though he managed to do very little with his Colorado opportunity last year.


85. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Robin Jennings 5213.2500404 OF-15
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 29 5x5: -1000

Since even Oakland couldn't improve Jennings's plate discipline, he's really too much of a risk to roster. He doesn't offer any speed potential, and his power upside is also rather limited. You can't count on a high consistently high BA with that weak plate discipline, so you probably shouldn't pick him up in most any circumstance.


86. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Dustan Mohr 5112.2350416 OF-21
MIN Twins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -1000

Mohr needs a full year at AAA to prove that he can sustain the improvement made at AA New Britain in 2001. His plate discipline remains weak, but he needs the additional minor league reps to insure that he can carry his power production up to the majors. Strongly consider spending a low minor league pick on him, as while he might only wind up a platoon partner for Ortiz or Jones, the Twins, in their desperate quest for a right-handed power bat, might give him a long look over the next two seasons.


87. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Trenidad Hubbard 123.2500002 OF-3
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 35 5x5: -1000

Despite below average production in a few short major league looks, Hubbard's minor league numbers continue to suggest that he could be a very decent fifth outfielder for a few seasons. He offers great plate discipline along with good speed and defense, and he even has a little power potential. Something's wrong with baseball if this guy remains unemployed by thirty clubs reportedly desperate for leadoff-capable talent at the major league level.


88. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jay Buhner 4510.2222504 OF-12
SEA Mariners DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000 5
2001 Age: 36 5x5: -1000 2

Bone hangs it up, leaving thousands of bald Northwesterners without an active icon. Buhner was a more talented, latter-day incarnation of Rob Deer, and his power certainly helped key the Mariners' renaissance in the 1990's. He was never a great player, but he was a very good addition to roto teams for several years.


89. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Scott Podsednik 61.1670301 OF-5
SEA Mariners DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -1000

Podsednik appears to be a fairly standard utility outfielder, whether playing at AAA or in the majors. He's displayed very good plate discipline for much of his minor league career, along with some definite speed potential. However, he doesn't appear to play much better than someone like Darren Bragg, and while he should hang around AAA for several more years, I doubt Podsednik will even find 500 at-bats in the majors by the end of his career.


90. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Delino DeShields 18837.1973211129 OF-47
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -1000 17
2001 Age: 32 5x5: 0111 19

DeShields appears to be one of the few completely ambushed by the "new" strike zone at the beginning of last season. His second half stats in Chicago, projected over a full season, appear completely in line with the rest of his career. Given five hundred at-bats, he'll likely manage a .270/5/50/30 season, and remain a worthy and potentially undervalued addition to many rosters, especially as a UT player that you can slide to MIF after the first week of the season.


91. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Michael Coleman 388.2111705 OF-11
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -1000

Coleman's never received the major league opportunity to prove that his decent AAA numbers were no mirage. He doesn't have the plate discipline to excel, but he owns enough tools so that he should be a valuable contributor as a fifth outfielder and pinch-hitter. With Boston re-signing him to the 40-man roster, it appears that Coleman will likely receive that opportunity now that Jimy Williams is in Houston and a more direct Duquette flunky, despite his skills as a pitching coach, manages the Red Sox.


92. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ryan Christenson 40.0000001 OF-5
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -10-10 1

Milwaukee grabbed him in the Rule Five draft for some reason. Considering Christenson's relative lack of major league quality skills, I doubt he'll find much success as anything more than a backup. If Milwaukee needs him to start in center after Hammonds injures himself again, they'll definitely lose some offense from that lineup slot. He simply doesn't have the tools to be a starter, but he shows just enough talent where I'm comfortable using him as an occasional injury replacement.


93. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Juan Rivera 40.0000000 OF-3
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 22 5x5: -10-10

Rivera is easily the top Yankee OF prospect, and after a breakout 2001 season, he's established himself as one of the top power-hitting OF prospects in baseball. I'd still spend a high minor league pick on him next year, but I also have serious reservations as to his long-term ability. New York really needed to leave him at AA for a full season, and he certainly needs a full year at AAA in 2002, a fact that they've acknowledged with some of their off-season moves. He simply walks too little and strikes out too much, and even with high averages and lots of power, his upside remains limited until his plate discipline improves. Without the skills that he's never demonstrated at any level above Rookie ball, Rivera will never be more than an average power-hitting OF, able to hit no higher than 6th in the order. With more plate discipline, he could even mature into a cleanup hitter. Determine his worth based on how well you believe New York can teach him to lay off bad pitches.


94. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Billy McMillon 9220.21711417 OF-24
DET / OAK DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -1-1-10 3
2001 Age: 29 5x5: -1000 5

McMillon will be lucky to find another chance like last year's with the Athletics. He's likely blown his shot as an extended major league career, as the organizations that appreciate his skills already have filled the left-handed DH/backup LF positions. He'll likely continue in AAA for several more years, but I'd be surprised if he even manages to double his 356 career major league at-bats.


95. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Anthony Sanders 173.1760201 OF-9
SEA Mariners DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1-1-10
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -10-10

Despite solid power and speed potential, Sanders will never be more than a fifth outfielder since his plate discipline is too poor to merit a permanent roster spot. He has enough years where he can improve it in time to earn a few million as a quality backup, but since he hasn't addressed this deficiency in the last eight years, I don't see a good probability of him doing so now.


96. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Charles Gipson 6414.21905116 OF-66
SEA Mariners DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1-1-1-1
2001 Age: 28 5x5: -1000

Seattle stupidly kept a borderline utility guy like Gipson on their 40-man roster while losing four players in the Rule Five draft, and they'll be lucky to even get two to three of those guys back in their organization. Gipson doesn't even really deserve a roster spot in the first place, since despite incredible positional flexibility, he doesn't hit well enough to warrant time at any of them. He's certainly not worth a spot as anything but a last option as an injury replacement, since his plate discipline doesn't support anything above his lifetime .237 BA.


97. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Rob Ryan 70.0000000 OF-5
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 28 5x5: -1-1-1-1

While Ryan has very solid plate discipline, he doesn't appear to have enough tools to ever establish himself as more than a backup OF with a good BA and a little pop. He won't hurt you when he's in the majors, and he offers several dollars of BA profit if he ever finds significant playing time. I don't see that opportunity arising with Oakland, but Ryan's still young enough to bounce around for several more years.


98. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jeff DaVanon 8817.1935917 OF-30
ANA Angels DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -10-10

DaVanon may wind up starting for Anaheim in the very near future, although you must remember that he does not resemble a prospect in the slightest. He has a lot of power potential, but his plate discipline is only slightly above average and he's also rapidly approaching 30. I think he has the ability to contribute as a league-average outfielder for a couple of seasons, even if the Angels really should be able to find a superior player. He has a good chance to make the team without any other signings, and you should definitely consider trying to grab him for a buck or two, since while he might hurt your BA, he has good upside if he can find more at-bats.


99. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Quinton McCracken 6414.2190307 OF-11
MIN Twins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 30 5x5: -1-1-1-1

McCracken's lost even the limited abilities demonstrated in his Colorado days. He doesn't get on base enough to use his failing speed, and he never had much power in the first place. He'll show up on rosters for the next few years because of his history and previous leadoff potential, although I don't think he deserves any more opportunities on fantasy rosters until he demonstrates that he still retains some of his former skills.


100. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Chris Magruder 295.1720103 OF-12
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 24 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Magruder owns a solid career minor league walk rate of 14% and appears to have enough plate discipline to succeed in the majors for a few seasons. He doesn't possess enough tools to impress most general managers since he'll be lucky to hit double-digits in homers or steals even in 500 at-bats, but since Texas liberated him from the Giants in the Galarraga deal, he should see some time as a backup Ranger. He doesn't have much upside, although don't be afraid to pick him up since he certainly shouldn't hurt you as an injury replacement, especially if some of Texas' injury-prone players act according to their reputations.


101. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Cliff Brumbaugh 100.0000001 OF-6
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Brumbaugh has good plate discipline, some pop, and even a little speed. He's a worthy addition to most any roster, roto or otherwise, since he'll likely maintain a high BA in any extended major league time. Without significant upside, he won't receive that opportunity, so like so many of these players, you'll have to take advantage of any extended opportunities that they do receive.


102. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Willie Harris 243.1250003 OF-8
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -2-2-2-1
2001 Age: 36 5x5: -2-1-1-1

If he doesn't make Baltimore out of spring training, target this guy with one of your highest minor league picks, and he should certainly go in leagues with only two round drafts. Harris has shown between average and excellent plate discipline in his three minor league seasons, but more importantly, stole 54 bases at AA Bowie last year. He's competing with other Orioles "prospects" for major league playing time, and has more roto potential than almost any of them. If he can maintain his walk rate, he has a chance of earning over $20 from his very first year in the majors. His 27 doubles in the Eastern League also suggest that he'll develop more power as he matures into his tools, and considering the dearth of offensive talent in the Baltimore organization, Harris should receive every opportunity to develop into either a leadoff guy or a very capable ninth hitter for a few seasons, especially since despite only playing the outfield in his brief major league appearance, he projects as a middle infielder. Baseball America even compared him to Tony Phillips last season. Again, target this guy very highly, since minor league speed, when coupled with good plate discipline, frequently translates very nicely into the majors.


103. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Endy Chavez 7716.2080504 OF-29
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -2-2-2-1
2001 Age: 23 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Chavez never should have been kept as a Rule Five pick last season, since despite decent speed and on-base ability, he needs development time if he's ever going to mature into his tools. His 168 AA at-bats in 2001 suggest that he still possesses a good future in baseball, and he should find a full year of AAA with the Tigers if they're smart and realize he could be a capable leadoff hitter if they don't rush him. He'll need to maintain good plate discipline and a significant amount of steals in order to have value as a starter, and with the right coaching, he still has that potential. Considering his speed upside, you should probably spend a mid-round minor league pick on him.


104. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Gerald Williams 27956.2014191342 OF-88
TB / NYY DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-1 13
2001 Age: 34 5x5: 0000 12

About the only dumber move than Tampa signing Williams to a three-year deal and then eating half of it, is New York giving Williams a two-year contract to fill their vacant horrible fifth outfielder slot. Apparently Clay Bellinger was performing at too high a level. Williams roto potential is linked to him maintaining a BB:K ratio around .5, since without that much discipline, his BA can drop into unsavory territory like this. At this point in his career, he's really only worth picking up as a reserve or injury replacement, and then only if you need the quantitative help desperately enough to weather a potential BA hit.


105. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Wendell Magee 20744.213517326 OF-76
DET Tigers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-1 Res
2001 Age: 28 5x5: -10-10

Magee might be a decent fifth outfielder, but the rumors indicating that Detroit considers him a candidate to start in center simply make no sense whatsoever. He doesn't have much plate discipline or speed, and his power is also certainly below average. I wouldn't want him on my team as anything more than an injury replacement, and even if he has exhibited some potential in the minor leagues in the past, I don't see that carrying to the majors any time soon.


106. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Clay Bellinger 8113.160512112 OF-25
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-1
2001 Age: 32 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Speaking of Bellinger, his defensive versatility appears to be the only "skill" keeping him in the majors. He has poor plate discipline, little speed, and practically no power. Replacing his .623 OPS with almost any minor league free agent will likely improve the Yankees by a full win or two, since several players can hit better while playing capable defense at just as many positions. Bellinger has no place on almost any rotisserie team.


107. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Adam Piatt 9520.2110609 OF-32
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-1
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Despite a lost season due to a nasty bout with viral meningitis that left Piatt in the hospital for a while, he's still the same player that exploded at AA Midland in 1999. Of course, Midland is one of the best hitters' parks in baseball and appears to be gaining a specific reputation for over-valuing right-handed Oakland hitting prospects with Piatt in 1999, Hart and Ortiz in 2000, etc. Piatt certainly has the potential to go 300/30/100 some time in the next few years, but even if he starts this season, I wouldn't expect him to reach much above the low teens in value. He's almost as likely to turn into a straight platoon player as reach his minor league numbers again, so be cautious in your bidding.


108. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Julio Ramirez 373.0810122 OF-22
CH White Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-2
2001 Age: 23 5x5: -3-2-2-1 1

Florida dealt Ramirez to Chicago when they realized he likely would never develop enough plate discipline to warrant a full-time major league position that would let his tools develop. He's quite young, possesses tremendous speed, plays decent defense, and even has solid power potential. You'll likely want to consider a low minor league pick for him despite his major league problems. Ramirez is not going to play as a backup in the majors for a significant amount of time, but he probably has a better chance of establishing himself as a big league regular by 2005 than Juan Encarnacion, since Encarnacion has a two year head start at proving that Detroit mishandled his development. Ramirez was given enough time to develop everything but his plate discipline, and only a full-time job at AAA makes sense for him to gain those skills now.


109. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brian Simmons 10719.1782818 OF-38
TOR Blue Jays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -4-3-3-2 Res
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -3-2-2-2

Simmons still hasn't even found a full-season of major league at-bats, and considering he's shown enough ability in the minors to merit a shot at starting in the majors, perhaps the White Sox should let him play instead of someone like Chris Singleton. Joe Borchard should be up soon anyway, so there's no almost no reason not to take a two-month chance on Simmons to see if he can demonstrated enough skills to be worth something in trade Given his current struggles in the majors, I wouldn't want him on my roto team unless he was assured of regular playing time.


110. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brady Anderson 43087.2028451250 OF-128
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: -5-4-3-3 10
2001 Age: 37 5x5: -2-1-1-1 16

Hopefully Cleveland will allow Anderson to experience a small resurgence, but considering that his plate discipline remained similar to previous years while his other quantitative and qualitative skills all significantly dropped, I don't see much hope for a comeback above merely average levels. There's no way that he'll be worth more than a couple of bucks in the draft, and if Cleveland's really counting on him as a leadoff batter, they're going to be sorely disappointed. Cleveland needs to ignore Thome's strikeouts and move him up in the order, allowing Lawton to leadoff and relegating Anderson to the back of the order if not the bench. He's at an age when the end can come quickly, and after last year's problems, I'm too wary to want him on my team.


111. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Donnie Sadler 10113.12902419 OF-16
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -6-5-4-4
2001 Age: 26 5x5: -4-3-3-2

Sadler's place on the Royal 40-man roster was the worst allocation of any spot in baseball. It prevented KC from protecting Corey Thurman, a major league-quality pitcher who's good enough to stay up all year with Toronto. Considering that KC subsequently DFA'd and non-tendered him to make room for Knoblauch and Tucker, we have further proof that nobody in Kansas City knows anything about how to assemble a winning baseball team. Do not draft Sadler if he even finds a major league roster spot, especially since he doesn't appear to have a single quality major league offensive tool. Anyone drafting Sadler should be promptly reported to people like us for immediate mocking and public castigation, or at least make sure to inform them that they won't be seeing their BA for most of the season.



We'll review minor league free agents and AAA/AA prospects from the AL East tomorrow

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm quite unimpressed with most of the players on this list. They seem to be either right-handed power hitters without plate discipline, fourth outfielders without enough tools to start, and several ciphers who will be lucky to receive any more major league playing time. The most roto upside in this list probably resides with the trio of Orioles prospects: Bigbie, Raines, and Harris. Baltimore's future starting outfield might include all three of these guys, but Harris also could likely end up their future shortstop alongside super non-prospect Ed Rogers. I'm not sure that someone like Bigbie deserves a pick in shallow leagues, but in leagues with a few rounds of minors leaguers chosen every year, all of them should be picked up this season, since their ETA is as soon as the end of 2002. Raines and Harris especially offer significant stolen base potential, and you should make every effort to acquire at least one of them to give you some speed upside on your future roster.

Click here to read the previous article.

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