On the Eighth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
AL PDV in the tens,
AL PDV of 20+,
NL West "Prospects",
N L Cen-tral "Prospects",
NL East "Prospects",
NL without PDV,
Single-Digit NL PDV,
and National Leaguers with Double-Digit PDV.

American League Outfielders with Positive Draft Value in the $10s

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Bobby Higginson		541	150	.277	17	71	20	84	OF-142
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	19		19		15		14		21
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	19		18		14		14		23

Higginson's career numbers appear to fluctuate wildly from year to year. Okay, so they really do fluctuate wildly from year to year. His sudden upturn in BB:K ratio suggests a rebound in BA back over .300, and if he could somehow hold around 20/20, most owners will be quite happy. While his runs and RBI should increase, the Tigers' lineup currently appears weaker than last year with OBP-sucking machines like Craig Paquette negating any gain from the addition of Dmitri Young. Don't go over $20 unless you have a very good hunch.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Raul Mondesi		572	144	.252	27	84	30	88	OF-149
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		18		14		14		31
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	19		18		14		14		22

Mondesi will never dominate in roto because his weak plate discipline normally holds his BA below respectable levels. He should continue to hover around 30/30, a goal upon which he can improve if his OBP returns to 1997 levels, but considering he's never been above .350 other than '97, don't expect that much. While his value to your team increases if your BA is very solid, its likely not worth the effort to assemble a solid BA and then overpay for Mondesi.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Trot Nixon		535	150	.280	27	88	7	100	OF-153
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	19		18		14		14		11
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	19		19		15		14		10

Nixon appears likely to continue this improvement with another "breakout" season. Both his runs and RBIs should increase with Damon in front of him and a healthy Nomar/Manny/Clark batting behind him. I'm slightly concerned about his uptick in strikeouts, but he should be able to maintain a BA in the .275 range. If Nomar's power doesn't return, Boston should seriously consider switching him with Nixon in the order to possibly produce more runs. Another alternative, if Nixon's power continues developing without an OBP improvement above .370, is to hope another infielder can maintain a higher OBP in the #2 slot and move Nixon to the #5 slot when Clark leaves after the season.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Carlos Lee		558	150	.269	24	84	17	75	OF-130
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	18		18		14		14		25
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	18		17		14		13		19

Lee still has tremendous offensive potential but doesn't appear to fit on the White Sox in the long term due to management concerns about his defense. He seems most comfortable at DH or 1B, positions that the White Sox have filled for now. Both his walk rate and plate discipline improved for the second straight year, and he's working up to a 20/20 season. Bid into the mid-$20's if you also like his potential for a .285/30/95/20/85 season, but be aware that he could be dealt when Joe Borchard is ready.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Paul O'Neill		510	136	.267	21	70	22	77	OF-130
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	18		17		13		13		11
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	17		17		13		13		14

With his overaggressive temper antics having gotten old years ago, we're quite happy to see O'Neill retire. He also saves us the burden of trying to figure out where this sudden improvement originated. His plate discipline, SB%, and SLG all saw nice upticks but without a corresponding BA or OBP increase. He'd likely serve just fine for one more year, although at least he went out on a positive season.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Matt Lawton		376	110	.293	10	51	19	71	OF-94
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	17		17		13		13		23
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	17		17		13		13		25

He should pick right up in 2002 where he left the AL in 2001. Lawton's SB% actually increased in the NL, but a return to a BB:K well above 1 will mean a higher year-long BA. He's going to hit 20 homers again the next couple of years, and if he combines that with 20+ steals and a high run total by virtue of having guys like Thome behind him, his value could easily reach $30. I'd be willing to bid at least into the mid=$20's next season, since I don't think the long-term contract will make him perform at a lower level.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Terrence Long		629	178	.283	12	85	9	90	OF-175
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	17		17		13		13		15
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	18		17		14		13		17

Long's only had two full years of major league experience, and since he really didn't slump much at all in his second year, I'd expect a solid breakout season across the board. Something along the lines of .300/25/100/10/100 is possible, although I'm not sure we want to show that much faith in his abilities. If you can grab him for anything below $20, jump at the chance, and even consider a slightly increased bid. The Athletics' lineup still has several powerful bats, so Long at least should easily maintain these statistics.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Gabe Kapler		483	129	.267	17	72	23	77	OF-133
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	17		17		13		13		21
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	17		17		13		13		15

We predicted a solid breakout season for Kapler in 2001, and without his repeated injuries, he might have shown even more improvement. If he remains healthy, his reduced playing time creates the opportunity to acquire a major bargain. His speed shot up out of almost nowhere, and his increased plate discipline should have meant higher averages instead of actual drops in BA, OBP, and SLG. If they allow him to settle in to the #6, #7, spot in the Ranger lineup (behind Young/Catalanotto, IRod, ARod, Palmeiro, Everett, and possibly Pena), Kapler should be able to relax and jump out to a 20/20 season at the barest minimum. You need some young AL outfielders to compete, and Kapler has everything in favor of his increased production except for the mildly troubling injury history.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ellis Burks		439	123	.280	28	74	5	83	OF-20, DH-102
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		16		12		12		19
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	17		16		13		13		16

You can't expect Burks to stay healthy for more than 400 or so at-bats, but he shows every ability to maintain a solid level of production in that limited time. His numbers fell back from a 2000 peak to 1999 levels, and he can even afford a probable slight further drop while he remains potentially undervalued. There's no reason to expect he'll earn less than $15 next year, so be happy if you can purchase him for anything around that price.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Marty Cordova		409	123	.301	20	69	0	61	OF-115
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	16		16		12		12
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	16		15		12		12		1

Cordova re-emerged from his non-tendered Toronto backup job to play well enough for Cleveland to earn a 3-year deal with Baltimore. Of course, we know he'll slump because his plate discipline can't support a .300 BA, and even another 20 homers would come as a mild surprise. Considering that Camden shows no sign of returning to its glory days as a hitters' park, I'd avoid Cordova at anything above a dozen bucks or so.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jason Tyner		396	111	.280	0	21	31	51	OF-107
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	15		15		12		12		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	14		14		11		11		RES

Tyner's value is completely dependent upon his on-base ability, a skill he's excelled at executing in the minors, but one without much major league success. His plate discipline has fallen apart in the majors, and it seems like only a matter of time until his BA plummets under .300. If he can maintain control of the strike zone, he can steal several dozen bases, but until he proves that ability, don't expect a value higher than 2001's.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Chris Singleton		392	117	.298	7	45	12	57	OF-143
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	15		15		12		12		6
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	15		14		11		11		5

Any player with very weak plate discipline, like Singleton, will have peaks and valleys in his career. While his BA jumped back up, his counting numbers remained low because the White Sox know that he's not even a short-term solution in center field. He has the ability to be a decent part-time player for a few years, but as the Sox showed in almost trading him to Anaheim, his upside is too low to have any real value in trade by itself.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Chuck Knoblauch		521	130	.250	9	44	38	66	OF-108
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	15		14		11		11		11
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	14		14		11		11		18

While most writers seem to be discounting his ability to rebound from his falling on-base abilities, I think Knoblauch still has a couple of solid seasons remaining. He doesn't help a regular team in the outfield, but he retains a lot of roto upside, a fact illustrated by his best SB total in four years. His BA should rebound slightly to an average level, and if he can muster another two dozen or more steals, he'll be worth a dollar value equal to about half of his expected SB.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ruben Sierra		344	100	.291	23	67	2	55	OF-36, DH-50
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	15		14		11		11
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	14		14		11		11

Sierra capped an impressive comeback by posting a .561 SLG, almost 20 points above his previous high, a league-leading .543 in 1989. Considering that his plate discipline remains as bad as ever and his OBP continues to hurt his team, I have a difficult time recommending Sierra in 2002. Players who are out of major league baseball for a year or two without playing Japan tend to shine very brightly, almost out of perhaps a mental adrenaline rush when they return, and then always seem to disappear again almost as fast as the first time. I expect Sierra to play decently for Seattle in 2002, find an even smaller role the following year with a rebuilding team, and be out of baseball for good by the end of 2004.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Torii Hunter		564	147	.261	27	92	9	82	OF-147
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		14		11		11		14
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	15		15		11		11		16

While Hunter has impressed management throughout the league with his defense and aggressive play, his huge jump in qualitative numbers seems unrelated to any skill increase. His power is maturing at a normal rate, he shows no intelligence on the bases, and his plate discipline remains as poor as ever. He might be able to hold a .270/30 for a couple of years, but thanks to his very low OBP, he really doesn't add to Minnesota's offense and should not be a player that they consider extending at a high salary unless his on-base ability improves.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jacque Jones		475	131	.276	14	49	12	57	OF-141
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	13		13		10		10		15
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	13		13		10		10		15

Despite Jones demonstrating a complete inability to hit left-handers in the majors, he really hasn't received enough at-bats against them to finalize such a determination. While his power decreased this year, he had a much better overall year due to increase in plate discipline and a more acceptable OBP of .335. With 500 at-bats in 2002, I think Jones can improve his value back up to the high teens, but I'd pay strong attention to spring training lineups before determining his projected playing time.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Darin Erstad		631	163	.258	9	63	24	89	OF-146
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	13		13		10		10		30
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	14		14		11		11		31

Predicting Erstad's statistics remains a complete mystery. His BA bounces around in direct correlation to his BB:K ratio, but his power and speed numbers appear seemingly all over the place without any consistency. I'd expect a rebound since that appears consistent with the rest of his career, but theoretically, he should remain at this level without a specific area of improvement. Perhaps leaving Anaheim at the end of the season will spur his growth back to what we hope are his true levels. Speculate up to $20, but I can't see a good reason to go above that since his numbers are maddeningly inconsistent.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Johnny Damon		644	165	.256	9	49	27	108	OF-158
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	12		12		10		10		32
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	15		14		11		11		32

Damon should be poised to improve on last year's numbers despite moving to a team with even more intense media scrutiny. The top of Boston's lineup is stronger than even that of Oakland, and since Damon maintained most of his plate discipline, hopefully another change of scenery will bring a return to 80% SB rates and a SLG well above .400. I'd be concerned with his overall development, but with a long-term deal, financial security, and an active and adoring fan base, I'd be comfortable bidding into the mid-$20's to obtain his services.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Kenny Lofton		517	135	.261	14	66	16	91	OF-130
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	12		12		9		9		20
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	14		14		10		10		24

Since many speedsters seem to suddenly lose their speed in their mid-30's, Lofton may be approaching the end of his career much faster than previously anticipated. His 2001 statistics, as projections, would relegate him to fourth outfielder status, and with both SB% and injury worries, all you're left with for 2002 is the hope that he has most of one year left on him. If he gets off to a good start with whatever team finally signs him, deal him as soon as possible for someone younger and with more upside. A further drop in plate discipline would definitely indicate further plummeting of his value.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mark Quinn		453	122	.269	17	60	9	57	OF-99
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		12		9		9		21
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	12		12		9		9		19

Quinn's roto peak may have occurred near the end of last April. He's already 28 and showed almost no plate discipline whatsoever this season. His averages fell across the board and Kansas City does not appear patient enough to wait for a rebound. The acquisitions of Knoblauch and Michael Tucker likely leave Quinn with a platoon role at best, and while he may be able to excel with less at-bats, I just can't see him returning to a level commensurate with these bid expectations.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Chris Richard		483	128	.265	15	61	11	74	OF-105, DH-20
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	11		11		9		9		8
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	12		12		9		9		14

Richard will miss most of next year due to injury, so any bid should be pure speculation for the second half and 2003. Remember that if he can perform at a high level for a couple of months, you'll be able to replace him in most any league until his return, and therefore you receive the benefit of Richard's future along with hopefully solid numbers from an undrafted player. Both his plate discipline and SLG point to a similar set of statistics when healthy, so don't bid more than a few bucks even with an eye on next season; he's not worth sabotaging a chance at winning this year.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Dante Bichette		391	112	.286	12	49	2	45	OF-53, DH-46
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	11		11		8		8		13
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	10		11		8		8		13

Bichette's been miscast by practically every scout and analyst associated with baseball. Granted, he is not a particularly wonderful player, certainly no better than about league average on offense, below average for his position, and with horribly inflated offensive numbers from Coors' field. However, he's not completely worthless since he can pound lefties and add a likely inexpensive power bat to a team for another season or two. No matter where he lands, I'll happily hope to grab him for a couple bucks, but he does not possess the skill to continue in any full-time role, and his BA could just be low enough to really hurt unless his at-bats are limited to under 300 or so.

36.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Randy Winn		429	117	.273	6	50	12	54	OF-119
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		11		8		8
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	11		11		8		8		1

Winn has more immediate potential than Tyner due to more major league experience and noticeable power. He's still a bad gamble as his SB% is bad, his plate discipline is worse, and his raw speed can't likely lead to 30 steals even with a high number of at-bats. Even if he starts in right for the Devil Rays, I wouldn't spend more than a few bucks on him, since he has the exact lack of skill that could cause a really hurtful BA to appear in your stat line.

37.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Stan Javier		281	82	.292	4	33	11	44	OF-86
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		11		8		8		2
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	10		10		8		8		2

We all wish Stan Javier well in his post-playing days, although we also wish he'd have stuck around for another year or two. Javier still has the skills to help a fantasy team in a limited role, and he's consistently turned profits on low bids for years. He definitely could help any team in baseball while working with prospects on outfield defense, plate discipline, and especially baserunning, since he retires with a very impressive career 83% stolen base rate.

38.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jeremy Giambi		371	105	.283	12	57	0	64	OF-48, DH-61
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	10		10		7		8		11
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	10		10		8		8		10

Giambi is the player we find most likely to experience a "breakout" season next year. His OBP and SLG, with the exception of a brief drop in plate discipline in 2000, have both been on the rise for almost all of the past three years. He showed a marked increase in doubles' power, allowing the solid expectation that he could easily translate that into longball ability, especially if he can stay healthy for 500 at-bats. I wouldn't think .300/25/90 would be out of the realm of possibility, and if you can grab him anywhere below $20, you'll probably have yourself a steal for a few seasons.

We'll review American Leaguers under $10 tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Resolve to not make any New Year's Resolutions this year. All of ours are the continuations of existing ideas, and therefore are "goals", not "resolutions". We've included: continue posting at least two new articles every single day, post the articles earlier in the day, continue going outside every day for more fresh air, don't try as many new foods to avoid upset stomachs, and do not throw the remote control(s) near the TV when Joe Carter remarks that Joe Girardi hits better when there's oxygen outside. Keep to ideas simple and similar to these, and you'll have no problem slightly improving your lives. Happy 2002, everyone.