On the Fourth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
NL East "Prospects",
NL without PDV,
Single-Digit NL PDV,
and National Leaguers with Double-Digit PDV.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the National League East

Atlanta Braves
Minor League Free Agents:
Michael Carter, 32, B:R, T:R. Carter's switched between the independent leagues and AAA for the last few years. He doesn't have much power and his plate discipline will never sustain an acceptable BA over an increased numbers of at-bats. While he has a little speed, he'll be very lucky to even get one cup-of-coffee in the majors.
Damon Hollins, 27, B:R, T:L. Hollins was a top Atlanta hitting prospect several years ago but his plate discipline never matured with his power. He's young enough where he should find his way back to the majors for a few dozen more at-bats, although he'll need to maintain at least an .800 OPS in AAA for a year or two before someone will likely give him that opportunity.
Roberto Rivera, 24, B:S, T:R. Rivera's never made it above AA, and based on his performance so far, I'll be surprised if he sees any more than the briefest AAA exposure. He doesn't appear to have any power or speed potential, and his plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. If he's to have any shot at the majors, he'll need to learn how to use his limited tools much more effectively, as I don't see him making much progress at the moment.
Pedro Swann, 30, B:L, T:R. Swann's shown some power potential and decent plate discipline for several seasons, even though he's yet to see more than two major league at-bats. He appears to possess the ability to perform as a capable fifth outfielder, but he'll need to catch some scout's eye to even find that much work. He'll likely hang around AAA for several more years, and I don't think he'd really hurt you as a FAAB'd injury replacement.

Prospects:
George Lombard, 25, B:L, T:R. Even though Lombard missed almost the entire season with injury problems, he's very likely to make the Braves in 2002, since he's out of options and they can use his abilities as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He has significant speed potential but won't start in the majors until he learns to the strike zone. Since he's shown no evidence of that knowledge in eight years in the minors, I have serious doubts as to any upside above a fourth outfielder's role. Strongly consider grabbing him for a buck or so. While his BA might hurt you in limited playing time, his power/speed upside remains very strong, and you'll want to own him somewhere if he ever matures into his tools.
Jason Ross, 27, B:R, T:R. His secondary statistics are much more impressive than his normal counting numbers. His BA has always remained fairly low, but he boosted his OBP to .387 and SLG to .481 at AA Greenville last year. He's never seen 500 AB for a full season, so perhaps instead of grabbing another bunch of AAA lifers like this year's minor league free agents, the Braves should let him play a full season at AAA to determine if he deserves a 40-man roster slot. If they don't promote him after this year, he'll leave as a minor league free agent, so Atlanta needs to find out if his power and speed flashes from the last few seasons are real. He won't see the majors before September at the earliest, and I have a strong feeling that he'll be moving to the above list for next year's review.
Carlos Urquiola, 21, B:L, T:R. The Braves picked him up from Arizona in June, although he unfortunately missed the end of the year with an injury. Urquiola has never received more than 384 at-bats in a season, and considering his SB upside, I'm not quite sure why he hasn't played more. He's maintained a .336 career minor league average and a .389 OBP despite appearing as a bit of a hacker. I think he has definite potential given his age and tools, but he needs a full year at AA and a full year at AAA before he'll merit serious considering for a roster spot. Only grab him with a very low minor league pick if you're for some reason playing for 2004.

Florida Marlins
Minor League Free Agents:
Ben Candelaria, 26, B:L, T:R. Candelaria's finally developed some rather solid plate discipline over the last two seasons, but this improvement appears to have arrived at the expense of his power potential. If he can manage to combine his previous best minor league seasons, he has a small chance to see some brief major league time. However, its far more likely that he'll play out his career bouncing between AA and AAA, a pattern that shouldn't leave him content if he thinks he can hit with power while occasionally walking.
Luke Wilcox, 27, B:L, T:R. Wilcox seemed to be on the way to establishing himself as a reliable AAAA outfielder when he sort of fizzled over the last two seasons. His plate discipline varies between acceptable and good, and he certainly has serious power potential. He just can't seem to put his skills together, and when he manages to finally accomplish that at AAA sometime in the next few years, he'll have a small window to impress someone as a fifth outfielder in the majors.

Prospects:
Abraham Nunez, 21, B:S, T:R. Florida doesn't have many position prospects at the upper levels, although Nunez retains an amazing amount of potential. He'll be a 20/20 threat from the moment he begins starting in the majors, if he can cut down on his strikeouts enough to finally deserve that chance. While the Marlins were hoping for quicker progress, they'll likely promote him to AAA for 2002, where his progress will determine whether his ETA is late July of 2002 or 2004. He's definitely worth a minor league pick due to his HR/SB upside, but be aware that his BA might really sting for a while.

Montreal Expos
Minor League Free Agents:
Ryan Thompson was included with National League Outfielders.
Kenny James, 24, B:S, T:R. James might venture outside the Expos' organization for the first time after seven full years in the system. He doesn't have much power potential, although he's shown incredible speed with 208 steals at a 82% success ratio that he's maintained at the highest minor league levels. His plate discipline has been fairly solid at AA, but he doesn't appear to have ever been given a significant shot at a full-time job. With many clubs looking for leadoff hitters, James has a chance to establish himself as a AAA player for years to come with the promise of a major league career with a lucky break or two. Questions exist about his real capabilities, even though I'm impressed by his progress over the last few years.
Jeremy Ware, 25, B:R, T:R. Another potential non-Expo for the first time, Ware owns some power and speed tools but lacks the plate discipline necessary for success at AAA. He'll likely bounce between the two top minor league levels for a few years until he either decides to go dominate in the independent leagues or he finds a hitting coach to teach him plate discipline. I don't think he has much potential at this time, and he's at least a couple years away from the majors even if he does start showing more improvement in his skills.

Prospects:
Geronimo Berroa, 36, B:R, T:R. Berroa still could be a decent right-handed pinch-hitter for some teams, and certainly could play another couple years at AAA. He's fortunate that the A's gave him the chance to succeed in the majors when many other teams would never have given a minor league veteran close to that many at-bats. While he has a little power potential left for the majors, even if he makes it back, his BA is too risky for a pick-up.
Dan McKinley, 25, B:L, T:R. McKinley has a little power along with promising speed, but his plate discipline just doesn't support his continued high BA. I have a hard time envisioning him as anything more than a borderline major leaguer. If he gets a call-up next season, you should probably avoid him, since his weak plate control could wind up really hurting your average.
Ron Calloway, 24, B:L, T:L. Calloway's improved his SB% over the last couple of years but his plate discipline suffered dramatically in 2001 as he split the year between AA and AAA. Montreal foolishly promoted him when his .919 OPS was relatively unsupported by a 24:46 BB:K ratio in 279 at-bats. He needs to go back and spend at least another half season mastering AA before any more AAA exposure. He retains the potential to emerge as a decent fourth outfielder and perhaps even a leadoff option. Teams must be more careful about promoting prospects before they've had the chance to truly excel at a level.
Matt Cepicky, 23, B:L, T:R. Some scouts might think that Cepicky's on target to challenge for an outfield job sometime in 2003, but plate discipline fell noticeably at AA, leaving his OBP under .300. Even a SLG rebound to .473 doesn't excuse the fact that he wasn't more than an average AA player, and he needs to return there for another season until he knows how to walk to first base. Cepicky has the potential to start for a few seasons in the majors, although it could easily go to waste if Montreal promotes him too quickly. He needs at least two more years in the high minors.
Tootie Myers, 22, B:R, T:L. Myers is yet another toolsy outfielder, this time with average power and speed but still without any semblance of plate discipline. He needs to stay at AA until his strikeout rate basically drops in half, and only then will his tools have a chance to work at AAA and above. Calloway, Cepicky, and Myers could make a solid AA outfield, although with more prospects pushing from A-ball, I expect at least one of these guys to find himself over-promoted and struggling to stay in the organization, probably Calloway based on his comparatively weaker power and advanced age.
Valentino Pascucci, 22, B:R, T:R. Val is our new favorite prospect, since not only does he have a great name, but we grabbed one of his foul balls at an AFL game and got it autographed by him. Like seemingly every Montreal position prospect, his plate discipline doesn't support his progress to AAA, and the Expos really need to leave him at AA for at least a few more months. Since he's 6'6" and not particularly fast, they should probably stick him at first base as the probable heir apparent to Lee Stevens. Pascucci has good power potential, although he shouldn't see the majors before the second half of 2003.

New York Mets
Minor League Free Agents:
Scott Hunter, 25, B:R, T:R. Hunter has a little power and speed potential, but he's never shown adequate command of the strike zone at any level. With plate discipline as bad as Hunter's, he'll be lucky to maintain a AAA career. I don't see any major league potential in his future beyond a cup-of-coffee as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner.
Juan LeBron, 24, B:R, T:R. The Mets hoped LeBron would learn enough of the strike zone to allow development of his power stroke, but AA appears to be his limit at the moment. His career BB:K ratio is 151:535, and without any plate discipline, he can only crush the occasional mistake pitch. LeBron should hang around for several more years while teams take chances on his power upside, although he won't be making any roto teams in the foreseeable future.
Tony Tarasco, 30, B:L, T:R. Tarasco has matured into a player with extremely solid plate discipline, some power potential, and even decent speed. He deserves the opportunity to re-establish himself as a reserve outfielder, and I'd expect most teams to be pleasantly surprised with his progress, even though he never played that badly in the first place. While he doesn't have much roto upside, he could earn a couple bucks if he can find several dozen at-bats.

Prospects:
Mike Curry, 24, B:L, T:R. Curry really disappointed me with New York after I had very high expectations for him going into the season. I recognize that he's another guy like Tyner without almost any power, but his plate discipline and speed skills were excellent, and he showed the potential to develop into a great leadoff hitter. He needs to rebound very strongly in 2002 to keep himself in the Mets' future plans, so you probably shouldn't pick him up in anything but the deepest of minor league drafts.
Allen Dina, 27, B:R, T:R. Dina has no plate discipline, limited power, and good speed obscured by his inability to get on base at all in the upper minors. He's unlikely to make the majors, and he'll probably spend most of his career at AA.
Ray Montgomery, 30, B:R, T:R. Houston never gave Montgomery much of a chance to establish himself as a reserve outfielder. While he still retains enough plate discipline and power to potentially excel in the majors in a limited capacity, I don't expect anyone else to give him that opportunity. Be willing to use him if you need an injury replacement, since he's likely to maintain a respectable BA and has some power upside.
Rob Stratton, 23, B:R, T:R. 2001 AA numbers: 483 AB, 30 2B, 29 HR, 53:201 BB:K ratio. Stratton's significant power upside remains obscured by perhaps the least plate discipline of any player in baseball. He controls the strike zone enough to walk a decent amount, leading to acceptable OBPs considering his SLG. His challenge is to convince AAA and major league managers that he deserves playing time despite his potential to strike out at least once every game.
Jaisen Randolph. Milwaukee selected Randolph in the minor league portion of the Rule Five draft. Here's what I wrote about him at the time:
Brief bio: 22, B:S, T:R. A speed freak lost from the Cubs on waivers in the middle of the season. He's developed solid plate discipline over the last few years at a severe cost to his batting average, apparently not making enough contact to justify the increased walk levels. He has little power and poor baserunning instincts as indicated by a 23:19 SB:CS ratio in AA this season. Randolph has the tools to be successful, but doesn't appear to have the necessary skills.
Upside/ETA: 5th outfielder. 2004.
Quality of pick: Acceptable.

Philadelphia Phillies
Minor League Free Agents:
Ramon Gomez, 25, B:R, T:R. Despite excellent speed potential, Gomez neither possesses solid plate discipline nor much power potential. He hasn't played above AA, and I wouldn't expect him to see much above that level in the future considering his performance to date. While he has a small chance of maturing into a big league role player, he'll really be lucky to even still play professional baseball five years from now.
Manny Gonzalez, 25, B:S, T:R. Gonzalez has only really had success in A-ball and the Independent leagues, and he might just want to return to the Northern League since his AA performances have been relatively poor to date. He hasn't been able to maintain his power and speed output against superior pitching, and his chances of ever making the majors are extremely low.
Aaron Royster, 28, B:R, T:R. Royster's played almost exclusively at AA for most of this minor league career, and he hasn't even been able to show average power or on-base ability at Reading. He appears to be a capable organization player, so I'd expect him to stay with Philly unless he somehow believes that another team would give him an undeserved opportunity at a higher level.
Kenny Woods, 30, B:R, T:R. Woods owns solid plate discipline, doubles' power, and a little speed potential. He'll never hit enough to warrant a large role in the majors, but after ten relatively productive minor league years, he deserves at least a cup-of-coffee. He was on the 1992 Olympic team, and that appears to be his most impressive accomplishment to date.

Prospects:
Dave Francia, 26, B:L, T:L. Francia has some speed potential but will be lucky to see more than the briefest of major league appearances. He doesn't possess either enough power or plate discipline to warrant more time, so don't expect him to stay with the Phillies past this season if they don't give him a shot. While he could probably help some team in a very limited role, his upside remains low.
Marlon Byrd, 23, B:R, T:R. Finally, we arrive at the only real upper level outfield prospect in the entire division that hasn't seen the majors. Byrd excelled at AA Reading this year, cutting his strikeouts while increasing all his averages and stealing over thirty bases again. He's a five-tool talent who probably needs to spend most of 2002 in the minors to make sure his gains aren't a fluke. His excellent AFL campaign dispelled the fears of many scouts, although some still harbor concerns about his stocky build. Most reports that we've seen ignore any potential weight problem in favor of both his statistical output and his actual appearance when playing baseball. Byrd seems to be a rather complete ballplayer, and he should be near the top of any minor league draft in 2002.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Finalize your New Year's plans. Even if you're just staying home and going to bed relatively early, you should probably determine a set course of action. Most reports indicate that a lot of folks will be celebrating in their places this year, so if you've ever wanted to go out but don't like huge crowds, there should still be places available in venues near you.