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December
23rd
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
The First Day of Outfielders

by Tim Polko

We apologize for the delay in today's posts. Several unplanned phenomena occurred including sudden snow flurries, an overly engrossing Bears' game, and the appearance of two fire engines outside an adjoining building.

On the bright side, along with a full 32 outfielder reviews and Jess' normal column, we finally finished our first Chicago Sports update since we launched the site. We cover most of the sports around town, so if you're interested in our take on local teams, please check out Good Chicago Sports.


National League Outfielders with Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Barry Bonds 476156.3287313713129 OF-143
SF Giants DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 44413332 30
2001 Age: 36 5x5: 43393230 30

Despite earning the top NL PDV by two dollars, the fact that Bonds is still not the most valuable offensive player in either 4x4 or 5x5 makes a powerful statement about the value of these categories. His season ranks among the top few years in offensive production in baseball history, and yet doesn't appear nearly that impressive when considering the level of offensive talent elsewhere in the game. He certainly won't hit this level again, but there's no reason he can't stay in the mid-$30's for another few seasons.


2. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Larry Walker 497174.3503812314107 OF-129
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 42403231 29
2001 Age: 34 5x5: 40363028 26

When you finally give up on him after another injury-plagued season, he stays healthy for most of the year and earns a tidy profit. Everything in Walker's history indicate that he'll miss some time in 2002 for some various ailment. Any bids above $30 are incredibly risky even though he retains the skills to exceed even this year's lofty numbers.


3. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Juan Pierre 617202.32725546108 OF-154
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 42403130 16
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 40363028 19

His value will keep increasing as he starts learning to read pitchers and take better jumps. He led the league in both SB and CS, and he seems headed for even better places as he made significant gains in his walk rate and plate discipline in 2001. There's no reason that Pierre can't see .350/60 SB sometime in the next few years, and if you want to ice BA and steals, this is the one guy potentially worth that $40 bid.


4. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Vladimir Guerrero 599184.3073410837107 OF-158
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 41393130 39
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 40363028 37

On the other hand, for improving dominance in every category, no one beats Vlad the Impaler. Getting the green light boosted his value significantly this year at the expense of some power. There's no reason he can't combine both, potentially heading towards 40/40, especially as he's just now reaching his peak. In a better hitters' park, he might put up formerly unfathomable numbers. We spent an inflation-adjusted $50 on him this past season and he won the league for us, and as long as you think he'll be in the NL for the full year, he won't disappoint for anything under the high $30's.


5. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Sammy Sosa 577189.328641600146 OF-160
CH Cubs DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 41393130 35
2001 Age: 32 5x5: 41373128 34

Everyone kept mentioning how Bonds' lineup protection was so much better than Sammy's, and yet thanks to solid work by Ricky Gutierrez, Bill Mueller, Matt Stairs, and Fred McGriff, the four spots surrounding the #3 hole in Chicago had a higher OPS than in San Francisco. Sosa had a great year, but he certainly was not the MVP under any definition. With a walk rate that keeps increasing, this BA is for real and he should maintain consistent HR numbers around 55 for at least the next couple of years. With McGriff and Alou behind him, also expect his runs to increase even further. He's fun to own in 4x4, but he'll be gold in 5x5 next year.


6. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Luis Gonzalez 609198.325571421128 OF-161
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 39372928 22
2001 Age: 33 5x5: 38352927 22

One of the most impressive career years in a long time was obscured by even better years from two future Hall-of-Famers. Gonzalez's most impressive accomplishment is probably managing his triplets, but with the game-winning hit in the World Series, he already has enough baseball memories to last anyone for years. Certainly don't expect him to reach this high again, but with a walk rate that also shot up markedly, grab him for anything around $30.


7. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Lance Berkman 577191.331341267110 OF-175
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:L 4x4: 36342726 25
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 35322725 23

His overall season wasn't nearly as impressive as just his first half numbers, but if he can consolidate his gains in 2002, he could take another step up into the .335/45/134 range within the next two years. While his walk rate is solid, his plate discipline did slide a little by the end of the year. If he can regain just a little of his previously-displayed skill, he'll be on top of these charts for many seasons to come.


8. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Shawn Green 619184.2974912520121 OF-161
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 36342726 31
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 35322725 28

Okay, so he didn't play on Yom Kippur. He still carried a weak Dodger offense almost into the playoffs. His season wasn't even as good as his year in 1999, so I still think he has one great season left that will leave him with a bushelful of MVP votes. Try to grab him next year, since I think that a lot of owners don't realize exactly how solidly he performed in every category.


9. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Bobby Abreu 588170.2893111036118 OF-162
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 35332625 31
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 35312624 32

With one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in recent memory, Abreu slipped under the radar due to a sudden drop in BA brought on by a rash of strikeouts. The source of this team-wide rash is quite likely deposed hitting coach Richie Hebner, and while I have serious doubts as to whether Abreu can rack over 30 steals again, he should be able to combine his power gains with a solid .300 BA to maintain a mid-$30's value. He loses a couple bucks in 5x5 if Rolen is dealt, but any gains by Pat Burrell could help offset a temporarily-lowered value.


10. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Cliff Floyd 555176.3173110318123 OF-142
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 34332625 25
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 34312624 25

He finally stayed healthy for an entire season and turned in a nice profit for most of his owners. Florida needs to deal him now before he gets injured again right through the end of his last season before free agency. I have concerns as to the sustainability of his BA since his plate discipline has been dropping for a couple years, but if he can play, he'll play well for a few more seasons.


11. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brian Giles 576178.309379513116 OF-185
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 31302323 29
2001 Age: 30 5x5: 31292422 29

Trading Giles would be the dumbest thing the Pirates could possibly do this year. He single-handedly gives them offensive potential, and while he's not the best player in the league, he certainly deserves his $9M/year salary. His walk rate took a dive this year, so he may not sustain an average above .300, but figure on him to keep his HR up while his RBI returns to more acceptable levels.


12. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Moises Alou 513170.33127108579 OF-130
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 31292322 30
2001 Age: 34 5x5: 29272221 25

While Alou had a better season in 2000, he still maintained solid numbers across-the-board. In moving from the second best hitters' park in the league to a pitchers' park, he'll likely see a drop in BA and homers, but he should maintain his OBP and possibly even improve his R/RBI due to improved lineup protection replacing ciphers like Brad Ausmus. His advancing age will keep me from bidding over the mid-$20's, and you might want to hold the line a little lower if you want to insure against loss.


13. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Gary Sheffield 515160.311361001098 OF-143
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 29282221 28
2001 Age: 32 5x5: 29262220 29

Doc's nephew hasn't posted an OBP under .407 in eight seasons. The Dodgers are losing games by not switching him up to the #3 spot instead of Green (who's never even cracked .390). He's ready to put up another great season, and anything up to $30 should earn a profit.


14. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
J.D. Drew 375121.32327731380 OF-118
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 26251919 25
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 25231918 28

Drew would have been in the top few batters if David Wells hadn't broken the outfielder's hand with an ill-timed pitch. His numbers will shoot up if he can ever stay healthy for more than about 400 at-bats. With the departures of Lankford, McGwire, and Paquette, LaRussa will likely play Drew every day and hit him either third or fifth. With improving plate discipline and base-running ability, he might be the most likely player on this list to earn $40 for the first time next season.


15. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jim Edmonds 500152.30430110595 OF-147
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 24231818 25
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 24221817 22

Edmonds actually followed up his 2000 season very strongly, but gains in plate discipline and doubles were obscured by the drop in homers. He has the ability to combine the best features of both seasons, so another great year is certainly within his grasp. He's a slight injury risk due to his history, but I expect a 2002 value around $30.


16. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brian Jordan 560165.2952597382 OF-145
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 20191515 19
2001 Age: 34 5x5: 20191514 15

It just doesn't feel like there's much outfield depth due to the uncertainties of injury, youth, and advanced age facing most of the players on this list. Neither Jordan's OBP or SLG deserves a lineup slot higher than fifth at best, and his plate discipline has been quietly falling for a few years now. A .260 BA is more likely than a return to .300, and he should be happy with a 20/80 year in 2002. Bid anything above the low teens, and you open yourself up to a lot of unnecessary risk.


17. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Kevin Millar 449141.3142085062 OF-93
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 19191515 1
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 19181414 1

Millar won't follow-up that strongly because his .314 BA was out of context with both his falling plate discipline and his career average marks. Even with another 400+ AB, he'll slip back to around $10, and Florida should be looking to upgrade, especially if they'd like their RF to hit second. Millar's usefulness will increase if he can quickly qualify for 1B and/or 3B, but since Lowell and Lee seem fairly set, I'm not sure where Millar fits into their plans. Monitor their spring training situation before making any bids.


18. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Preston Wilson 468128.27423712070 OF-121
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 19181414 28
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 18171413 27

Jess loves owning this guy because she successfully predicted his SB spike two years ago. The truly scary thing about his 36:107 BB:K plate discipline is that it represents a marked improvement from the strikeout highs of previous years. Overall, he maintained a barely-acceptable .331 OBP while improving both his BA and SLG. If Castillo can stay on-base and Florida solidifies the top of the order, Wilson could easily hit the high-$20's or more in a career year.


19. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Reggie Sanders 441116.26333901484 OF-119
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 17171313 14
2001 Age: 33 5x5: 18171313 14

Once again he appears left without a chair as the music winds down. His significant skills are undeniable, but his plate discipline was as bad as it's been in years, and this sudden burst of homers in his mid-30's screams "unrepeatable power peak." Enough teams are looking for a solid outfielder so that he could easily land somewhere like Minnesota or San Francisco and repeat close to this level, but while I liked his chances for 2001, I'm equally skeptical of any further gains. Bid carefully, and don't expect more than about 400 at-bats.


20. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Doug Glanville 634166.26214552874 OF-150
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 16161212 16
2001 Age: 30 5x5: 16161212 16

Even if Philly leaves him stashed in the #8 hole, there's no way he should be playing every day. A .285 OBP is unacceptable enough even without the .375 SLG. He has roto value because his extreme AB numbers (628 or more for the past four years) create acceptable power and speed statistics. He's as vulnerable as any player in baseball to a sudden disappearance in value, since Burrell and Abreu are set and Marlon Byrd should be ready soon. Anything into double-digits for Glanville is a likely a risk that I wouldn't take.


21. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
John Vander Wal 452132.2921470858 OF-117
PIT / SF DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 16151212 10
2001 Age: 35 5x5: 15151211 9

His value drops now that he's likely in a straight-platoon despite the opportunities of the short right fence in Yankee Stadium. Vander Wal's plate discipline is already fading, and he's old enough where his power could also vanish quickly. I like the guy a lot as a pinch-hitter, but any bidding based on his 2001 values should guarantee you an unhappy loss in 2002..


22. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mark Kotsay 406118.29110581367 OF-112
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 15151212 20
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 15151211 19

His improvement has been slower than many had wished, but with four full years in the majors, Kotsay's still only 26 headed into 2002. While his plate discipline slipped a little, his walk rate increased, creating more SB and run opportunities. If San Diego leaves him alone in CF and the #2 hole, a .300/20/80/20 season would not be out of the questions. Figure on 85% of that, and bid him to the high teens while hoping for a very green light from Bochy. We own him at $4 for one more year and think enough of his prospects and that developing lineup where we'll likely extend him a year to $9.


23. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Devon White 390108.27714471852 OF-101
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 15151111 1
2001 Age: 36 5x5: 14141111 3

Devo's resurgence still only left him as barely a league-average centerfielder, and after this little power spike, I suspect his numbers will head south quickly. Since he still hasn't found a home for 2002, you could very well be looking at a repeat of 2000 stats. Not too many teams want to give even platoon at-bats to a 39-year old CF with average speed, failing power, and an OBP about to drop off the charts. Bid $2 if you like some risk, but he could just as easily cost you $4.


24. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Alex Ochoa 536148.2768521773 OF-144
CIN / COL DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 14141111 17
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 14141111 17

Somebody get Kirt Manwaring away from Ochoa, since your numbers are supposed to increase when you get to Colorado. His plate discipline slipped in his first season with more than 282 at-bats, and Ochoa's number were held down by an unacceptable 57% stolen base rate. He's now shown the ability to post nice roto numbers but also demonstrated that his numbers fall with more exposure. An Ochoa/Hollandsworth platoon in left for Colorado could earn them both $20 salaries while keeping all their averages high.


25. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Steve Finley 495136.27514731166 OF-131
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 13131010 17
2001 Age: 36 5x5: 14131010 19

His power disappeared as quickly as it first appeared, and Finley's improved plate discipline from 2000 started slipping again. The Snakes can hope that he can maintain this level for another year or two, but he also fall well below replacement-level and they might actually have to play Durazo or Dellucci every day while Bautista covers CF. Of course, that situation would just mean that they'll give Jose Guillen 500 at-bats since he has more experience than their other backups. If you go into double digits for Steve, you're taking an unnecessary risk.


26. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Rondell White 32399.3071750143 OF-90
CH Cubs DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 13131010 26
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 121299 16

Rondell could go Cliff-Floyd all over New York next year. His plate discipline has improved for three straight seasons while his SLG has stayed right around .500. If the Yankees rely on him to drive in batters instead of creating opportunities on the bases, he should be able to stay healthy enough for a third seasons of 500+ at-bats while posting a solid $20+ value. Don't be afraid to run away from the bidding if you hear even a hint of an injury in spring training.


27. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Andruw Jones 625157.2513410411104 OF-161
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 15151212 39
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 15151211 35

Bobby Cox needs to just stick Jones in the #4 slot for the next five years and watch his power numbers bloom. With Furcal, Giles, and Chipper creating plenty of RBI opportunities ahead of him, Jones can focus on making contact and avoiding the strikeout spike that ruined his 2001 season. He should easily rebound back to 2000 levels even with a slightly reduced number of at-bats. The Braves' offensive potential rests on his ability to put up some big numbers, and while there might be a $40 season sometime in the next several years, there's no reason to even bid to $30 for 2002.


28. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ken Griffey, Jr. 364104.2862265257 OF-90
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 121299 34
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 121299 33

All his skills are just slightly off from his career highs since joining the Reds. He's at the point where he either needs to bust out with a Bondsian power splurge or risk becoming just be another overpaid veteran. If he's healthy, I'm betting on the former, and since there's no good reason for him not to club 50 again, bid to $35 or so if you want the power on your team. Cincinnati's lineup is going to start showing rapid improvement with Casey and Boone in their primes and Dunn, Kearns, and Gookie Dawkins hitting the majors soon, and Griffey should be the centerpiece of their renaissance heading into the new park in 2003.


29. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Richard Hidalgo 512141.2751980370 OF-188
HOU Astros DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 121299 28
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 121299 28

Split the difference between 2000 and 2001 to find his probable 2002 stats. His plate discipline actually improved slightly, and since he'll likely take Alou's #5 slot with Daryle Ward hitting behind him, there's a good chance he could approach the previous levels. Expect something like .300/35/110 for now, and bid accordingly.


30. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Todd Hollandsworth 11743.368619521 OF-42
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L 4x4: 101088 17
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 8967 16

While he put up monster numbers in a little over a month, Hollandsworth still can't control the strike zone to save his ever-problematic BA. His 2002 averages are way over his head, but if he's healthy and in a straight platoon, he should be able to improve on these values nicely. Don't plan on much long-term success, since he's approaching free agency, is already past his prime, and shouldn't be in Colorado's plans for too many more years.


31. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
B.J. Surhoff 484131.2711058968 OF-129
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 101088 12
2001 Age: 36 5x5: 111188 10

Despite a season not much different than 2002, the Braves appear to have come to their senses and will pull Surhoff from a full-time role after a decade and a half. His plate discipline is still solid, but the power is probably gone for good, which leaves him likely playing out another year or two with numbers similar to Wally Joyner's last few years. Since he does have a weaker batting eye than Joyner at a similar stage of his career, I'm not sure that I'd gamble more than about $3 or $4 on Surhoff's 2002 stats.


32. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Bubba Trammell 490128.2612592266 OF-136
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 101078 5
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 101188 9

Bubba's locked into a long-term deal and should find about 400+ at-bats as the primary right-handed sub for Lankford and Klesko. His plate discipline is acceptable for his power potential, and he should be able to increase these numbers in a second year of significant playing time. Up his price another couple bucks if they manage to trade Lankford, but be willing to deal him for someone younger with more upside.



Very early conclusions: Spending around $30 on any top OF will probably allow you at least a couple dollars of profit. Spending more than that will secure you talent but leave your budget a little strained, and waiting for $20 bargains might leave you with a bunch of $15 players. You'll need to spend at least $40 in your outfield under any circumstance, and since there's more depth here than any other offensive position, you should be able to bide your time until you can draft guys that fit your budget.

We'll review National Leaguers with Single-Digit PDV on Wednesday.

Tomorrow we have the first of our two special holiday-themed articles.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Start reminding yourself not to overbid on specific outfielders. Almost off of these guys' statistics are largely interchangeable, and pre-committing to any one player weakens your entire draft strategy.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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