American League First Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jason Giambi		520	178	.342	38	120	2	109	1B-136
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	37		36		28		28		31
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	35		33		26		26		34

He should hit $40 next year as all his numbers appear on the upswing. I'll be a little concerned if he winds up hitting cleanup in New York that he might just maintain these numbers instead of improving, but the Yankees seem determined to keep in the #3 hole. That should keep his roto value up, and if you're going to go out and spend some money on a first basemen next season, there are few players more fun to own than this guy.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mike Sweeney		559	170	.304	29	99	10	97	1B-108, DH-38
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	28		27		21		20		29
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	26		26		20		20		28

Be very happy if you can grab him under $30, since he's in his walk year and poised to finally put it all together. There's little reason that he can't combine his plate discipline from 2000 with his 2001 power to stake a firm claim to this high ranking. Most people ignore him since KC's a relatively small market, but Sweeney was the 13th best offensive player in the AL last year, and needs to be paid accordingly for his 4-category contribution.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jim Thome		526	153	.291	49	124	0	101	1B-148
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	26		25		20		19		24
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	25		24		19		19		20

He won't repeat these numbers due to the decline in Cleveland's lineup. There's a good chance that a few wannabe sharks in your league will bid him to the max, and you should certainly let them. I've liked Thome for years, but I'm somewhat sure he'll slump before rebounding for a real power peak in 2003-2004. Be glad he didn't hit one extra homer, since hitting 50 would cause a jump in his probable auction value of at least a few bucks.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jeff Conine		524	163	.311	14	97	12	75	1B-80, OF-38
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	26		25		20		19		3
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	24		23		18		18		5

One of the best bargains of 2001 was only three games at third short of gaining some real position flexibility for next year. He'll earn double-digits next year, but considering the problems with the Baltimore lineup and the metamorphosis of Camden Yards into an extreme pitchers' park, I just don't see him matching these numbers again. While his increased plate discipline is nice, there are too many factors working against him to consider him as more than just a basic sleeper.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
John Olerud		572	173	.302	21	95	3	91	1B-158
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	23		22		17		17		14
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	22		22		17		17		15

While he's due to start declining soon, there are only very small signs of slippage in his skills. His walk rate has fallen by almost a quarter over the past two years to a still-solid .76 while his strikeout rate has remained steady. Olerud has maintained his power despite a shift into a more pitcher-friendly stadium, and I suspect he'll be able to produce at close to these numbers for another couple years.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Rafael Palmeiro		600	164	.273	47	123	1	98	1B-113, DH-46
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	22		21		17		16		26
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	22		21		16		16		27

Despite a repeat of the 47 homers he hit in 1999, most of his other skills were down across the board, including a 50 point drop in BA, 40 points in OBP, and about 70 points of SLG. He's far more likely top drop to the 35/110 range next year even with the other improvements in the Texas lineup. Palmeiro's produced at a very high level for the past few years, but even receiving more time at DH won't hold off Father Time.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Carlos Delgado		574	160	.279	39	102	3	102	1B-161
TOR Bluejays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	21		20		16		16		32
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	21		20		16		16		33

Delgado's fall can largely be attributed to a drop in plate discipline from a 123:104 BB:K ratio to this year's 111:123 ratio. His BA slipped by 65 points, and his OPS was down almost two hundred points. With the new emphasis on strike zone control and OBP in the Toronto organization, expect Delgado to rebound close to his 1999 levels, leaving him more likely to earn close to $30 than $20, so bid accordingly.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Doug Mientkiewicz		543	166	.306	15	74	2	77	1B-148
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		20		15		15		1
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	19		19		15		15		4

Nothing about this season should have surprised anyone, as it's almost exactly in line with his 2000 MLEs. Any good projection system had him priced close to $20 last year, and now with two full years in the majors under his belt, he should be able to take the next step by bumping up his power numbers into the 20/90 range. Watch his plate discipline carefully next year; with much of his value based on average, a drop in BB:K forecasts an impending fall in BA.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Tino Martinez		589	165	.280	34	113	1	89	1B-149
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		20		15		15		8
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	20		19		15		15		15

Much of any "improvement" this year is a mirage based on too many pundit plaudits. His power numbers shot up while his plate discipline fell and his OBP remained at an unacceptable .329. He'll fall back into the mid-teens at best this year, and I suspect the Cardinals are going to be very eager to dump his contract by the third year. His last few seasons look extremely similar to Robin Ventura's numbers from a few years back, and Ventura's over a year younger than Martinez.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Paul Konerko		582	164	.282	32	99	1	92	1B-144
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		19		15		14		15
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	19		19		15		14		22

Konerko's maintained solid trends over the past four seasons, increasing his power output while showing consistent plate discipline and averages. With Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez hitting ahead of him for an entire season, Konerko should break 100 RBI this year easily and see probable statistical growth across the board.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Fred McGriff		343	109	.318	19	61	1	40	1B-74
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	18		17		13		13		7
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	16		15		12		12		15

McGriff earned a profit even before his trade to the NL, and he should be able to maintain this level of production for a couple more seasons. His BA will start falling due to slow erosion of his plate discipline, but he has enough power to be worth solid bids in the teens at least until he leaves Chicago.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Tony Clark		428	123	.287	16	75	0	67	1B-78, DH-42
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	13		13		10		10		18
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	13		13		10		10		15

A fresh start in Boston might be just what Tony the Ex-Tiger needs. His plate discipline improvement of the last few years has been largely obscured by all his DL time. I strongly suspect he'll post a career year since Comerica has artificially-suppressed his stats.

More specifically, Comerica provides a nice boost to batting average while strongly holding down homers. Despite these limitations, Clark has maintained a slugging average around .500, leading me to conclude his power will show a nice uptick due to the combination of hitter-friendly Fenway Park and the stronger Boston lineup. His BA also has remained relatively steady despite increasing plate discipline, so he should maintain an average approaching .300 while seeing a return of his power levels from 1997. I suspect you'll be able to secure his services for under $20, and you could net close to $10 in profit for your bid if he can stay healthy.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
David Segui		292	88	.301	10	46	1	48	1B-65
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:L	4x4:	11		11		8		8		11
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	11		11		8		8		15

Everyone knew this was a horrible free agent signing a year ago, but Segui actually played very well before his injury, even despite the handicap of moving to an extreme pitchers' park in Baltimore. His average returned to more reasonable levels with an increase in his plate discipline and OBP and without much of a drop in slugging. He'll be an acceptable player for Baltimore if he can maintain these numbers over a full season, and he could earn close to $20 if you get lucky on a low bid.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Scott Spiezio		457	124	.271	13	54	5	57	1B-105, DH-20
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	10		10		8		8		3
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	10		10		8		8		6

Spiezio was at the peak of his roto value a few months ago when he had useful position flexibility and was playing every day. There's no reason for him to receive more than 300 AB next year with a full outfield, infield, and Shawn Wooten needing time at DH. Somehow most of his 2001 power output was stuck in doubles instead of home runs, an unexpected development that kept his value down another few dollars. I expect he'll be a decent UT guy next year, but I would keep my bids around the $5 range, and that's assuming he'll find at-bats at DH throughout the year.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Brian Daubach		407	107	.263	22	71	1	54	1B-106
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	9		10		7		7		5
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	10		10		8		8		9

Daubach remains largely undervalued due to the perception that, as a minor league veteran, the Red Sox are always looking to replace him. While that's true to a point, he's proved to be very effective as a left-handed platoon partner at either 1B or DH. Even if Boston adds another starting position player, between the probable injury difficulties and/or ineffectiveness of Nomar, Manny, Clark, and Offerman, Daubach should find at least another 300+ at-bats and turn in a season very similar to this one. His value's increasing due to a rising walk rate, and his BA might even rise if he only plays against right-handed pitchers.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Randall Simon		256	78	.305	6	37	0	28	1B-43
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	9		9		7		7
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	8		8		6		6

With the glut of corner types in Detroit, Simon is unlikely to even receive this much playing time. Almost all his value is dependent upon a high BA that remains unsupported by his plate discipline in the majors. So while he won't hurt you for a buck or two, you'd have to know he'll receive 300 at-bats before bidding any higher, and that would require at least two major injuries to Detroit before your draft.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Steve Cox		342	88	.257	12	51	2	37	1B-78
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	5		6		4		4		8
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	6		6		4		5		11

Despite a rather poor performance this in 2001, Tampa plans to give him a full year to established himself at 1B next season. His drop in value stems entirely from a dramatic fall in plate discipline with a corresponding 26 point BA plummet. He should be able to rebound with full-time work, and I'd feel confident bidding up to the low teens and expecting a slight profit.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ed Sprague		94	28	.298	2	16	0	9	1B-12
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		3		2		2
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	2		3		2		2

Sprague snuck in with another barely-acceptable roto performance when no one was looking. He even managed to play six different positions in his 45 games. I full expect him to see at least a few at-bats in each of the next few seasons since he's still relatively young, provides a little position flexibility, and gives a team a "proven veteran" on the roster. I wouldn't bid on him unless he somehow wins an injury-depleted job, but if you see him on a roster, gamble a buck if you were a Toronto fan back in the early 90's.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Dave McCarty		200	50	.250	7	26	0	26	1B-68
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:L	4x4:	1		2		1		2		3
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	2		3		2		2		1

McCarty should have a few months left on the Royal roster before he's thrown out with Tony Muser. He brings nothing to a team on offense while contributing only very little with his glove at 1B, and a team with Mike Sweeney shouldn't ever be taking him out of the lineup. There's no reason to expect much from McCarty in 2002, and while some signs point to a small uptick in his numbers due to increasing walk rates and plate discipline, I wouldn't risk a roster spot on him as long as the current regime runs Kansas City.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Calvin Pickering		50	14	.280	3	7	0	4	1B-12
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	1		2		1		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	1		1		1		1

Pickering has both significant power gifts and a solid walk rate, positive attributes obscured by a very high strikeout rate that ticks off all his managers. Cal's had the ability to play in the majors for several years now and could really help a power-deficient team boost their offense. Any chance of a 2002 spot in Boston probably disappeared with the Clark and Reese acquisitions, but feel free to bid a few dollars on him if he finds at least a platoon job somewhere. He might have better luck breaking into the NFL with Juan Diaz as defensive tackles than finding a manager who can put up with his strikeouts.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Andres Galarraga		243	57	.235	10	34	1	33	1B-25, DH-39
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		1		1		19
2001 Age: 40	5x5:	2		2		2		2		19

There was little reason for anyone to expect him to post a value above the low teens at best, and the sharp drops in his walk rate, OBP, and SLG from 1998 to 2000 should have shown folks that his career was poised for a continued downturn. His recovery from cancer was admirable, but Galarraga should find a nice platoon job for 2002 and then head into coaching. If Boston can afford him, he'd make a fantastic platoon partner for Daubach, along with finally providing a positive influence in a broken clubhouse.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Carlos Pena		62	16	.258	3	12	0	6	1B-16
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	1		1		1		1		Res
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	1		1		1		1		Res

He's been ready for the majors for two years, although I'm quite glad Texas gave him the time to prove himself in the minors before rushing him up to the majors like so many other organizations would have done. Pena should hit immediately regardless of whether he plays 1B, RF, or DH. Any bids into the mid-teens have a good chance of earning a profit considering both his skills and the rest of the Ranger lineup, and if a bid close to $20 is necessary to grab him in keeper leagues, do it without a second thought. Barring injury, he's on his way to $30 within two years, and you'll want him on your team when he's hitting behind ARod.

The American League has plenty of attractive options at first base, from superstars in their prime like Giambi and Sweeney to established veterans like Olerud and Palmeiro and even potential breakthrough candidates like Mientkiewicz and Konerko. You really can't go wrong with almost any of these guys, although if you're not going to shell out the cash for Giambi or even Sweeney or Delgado, consider biding your time until you can grab one of the undervalued guys in the teens, probably Pena or maybe Clark if you don't mind the risk.

We'll review American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Take a look at Pena's price in your keeper leagues. Do you have enough talent to acquire him? I was going to suggest just making a random trade offer today to get one of your fellow owners thinking about baseball heading into the weekend, but if you think you can grab Pena, go get him now before his current owner starts seeing projected values in the high teens and realizes that he should never deal him.