Major League Rule Five Draft Review

As usual the intelligent general managers make a mockery out of the process, nabbing useful major league players while the others sit it out completely or draft useless prospects with no chance if immediate success. Several otherwise competent GMs were shut out of the process due to a full roster with too many prospects, but Toronto and Oakland made the real finds here. Tampa took one of the most established players available with the first pick, and they probably made a good decision considering their need for immediate help, but there's more upside later in the draft. More guys probably have a good chance to stay with their new teams than in previous years, so there's definitely some roto potential hidden in these players.

Round One

Tampa Bay: Kevin McGlinchy, 24, RHP, ATL.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle reliever/swingman in 2002; starter as soon as late 2002.
Fantasy Potential: He'll earn a profit on a $1 salary if he stays healthy. He pitched great for Atlanta in 1999 before losing much of the last two years to arm problems. His BB:K, K/9, and H/9 are all above average, and the Devil Rays should give him enough time to come into his own.

Pittsburgh: Luis Ugueto, SS, FLO; 22, B:S, T:R.
Traded to Seattle for cash.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 1%.
Probable Role if Kept: Utility infielder/pinch-runner/26th man.
Fantasy Potential: Very little. He's never played above A-ball, and appears to be a speed goof with no skill at the plate. He also commits too many errors. He won't make the club, but don't draft him even if he does. He's two to three years away from having a real chance to contribute.

Kansas City: Miguel Ascencio, 19, RHP, PHI.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 10%.
Probable Role if Kept: 12th pitcher/mop-up guy.
Fantasy Potential: He couldn't even maintain a BB:K of 2 in the Florida State League. Neither his K/9 nor H/9 give me much hope for immediate success, so KC's best hope might be to deal to keep him after stupidly exposing Thurman to the draft. Asecencio needs at least another two years in the minors, and while scouts seem to like his stuff, the performance just isn't there yet.

Montreal: Joe Valentine, 21, RHP, CHW.
Traded to Detroit for cash.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 20%.
Probable Role if Kept: Last man out of the pen.
Fantasy Potential: He saved 24 games between the Florida State and Sally Leagues with a K/9 over 10. His walk rate was a little high, but he only allowed about a hit every two innings. The statistics indicate that he has the ability to succeed in higher levels, but I wouldn't gamble a pick on him until he shows success at the major league level. One caveat: watch his spring training stats. They normally mean very little, but if he's striking out a batter an inning without giving up many baserunners, you might want to take a very late round flyer if desperate. Detroit's bullpen is somewhat in flux, and they probably view Valentine as a future closer, giving him a small chance of immediate save opportunities.

Detroit: Jeff Farnsworth, 25,RHP, SEA.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 80%.
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief/spot starter.
Fantasy Potential: He has relatively solid minor league numbers across the board but really needs a full year in AAA. I'd consider spending a very low Ultra pick on him since he'll play in Comerica, but I think he has a much better chance of success in 2004 after a year at the end of the bullpen bench and another catching up in AAA.

Milwaukee: Jorge Sosa, 23, RHP, SEA.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 5%.
Probable Role if Kept: Last man out of the pen.
Fantasy Potential: Very little for a few more years. The Mariners converted him to a pitcher this year after six seasons in the outfield. His numbers were very good - for short-season A-ball. I like his potential after three or four more years in the minors, but I just can't see much success in hitter-friendly Miller Park.

Anaheim: Steve Kent, LHP, SEA.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 75%.
Probable Role if Kept: 2nd lefty in the pen.
Fantasy Potential: Limited in 2002, but he could be a very solid middle reliever in a year or two. His numbers in high-A were very solid with well over a strikeout an inning. He allows too many baserunners, especially by walk, but I see no reason why he can't stay with the Angels as long as they don't use him only against the top left-handed hitters in the league. He'll mature best in low-pressure situations, so this is only a quality pick if Scioscia uses him properly.

Toronto: Corey Thurman, 22, RHP, KC.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Middle relief.
Fantasy Potential: Significant immediate potential, and he could easily earn $10 with the right breaks. Thurman's 2001 MLEs suggest an ERA around 4 with solid ratios across the board as a starter. I'd expect Ricciardi to leave him in the pen for almost the entire year, send him to AAA the following season for a couple months to return to starting, and then to join Toronto's rotation by the end of 2003. He has a good chance of becoming one of the best Rule Five picks ever if he can stay healthy, and even a better sign for his future success is that he's improved while moving up in the minors.

San Diego: Ryan Baerlocher, 23, RHP, KC.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 85%
Probable Role if Kept: Long relief.
Fantasy Potential: Solid, probably worth a $1 flyer in the deepest of leagues, and an Ultra pick in most other places. While the Padres are very deep in pitching prospects, Baerlocher should have enough success this year in a relatively weak San Diego pen where he should remain with them for a few seasons. He's another KC AA starter with 2001 MLEs showing an ERA under 5, and while his ratios need work, I'd expect a decent year in a good pitchers' park.

Oakland: Jason Grabowski, 3B, SEA; 25, B:L, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 99%.
Probable Role if Kept: Left-handed pinch-hitter and corner utility guy.
Fantasy Potential: Grabowski's shown excellent plate discipline in the low minors along with solid doubles' power at the upper levels. He won't be great immediately, but there's no reason for him not to have good long-term success in Oakland's walk-friendly environment. His skills suggest a lefty Olmedo Saenz, and he's a solid $1 pick at the end of the draft.

San Francisco: Felix Escalona, SS, HOU; 22, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 30%.
Probable Role if Kept: Pinch-runner and utility infielder.
Fantasy Potential: Significant speed upside. He'll probably kill your BA since he's never played above A-ball, but he more than doubled his 35 career steals this year while dropping down to the Sally League since Houston lost their high-A team. He also suddenly developed significant power this year, also probably due to easier competition, but the raw numbers appear impressive. I wouldn't spend more than a low Ultra pick on him since I expect him to head back to Houston, but the Giants don't have many solid prospects and they might make an effort to keep this guy around one way or another. He's probably just a name to keep in mind for 2003 or so.

Round Two

Milwaukee: Ryan Christenson, OF, ARI; 27, B:R, T:R.
Chance of Remaining on 25-man roster/DL for entire season: 50%.
Probable Role if Kept: 5th OF.
Fantasy Potential: Little power, little speed, weak plate discipline leads to BA problems. He's not worth drafting on a 23-man roster.

American League Third Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ken Caminiti		185	43	.232	9	25	0	24	3B-53
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	0		1		0		1		12
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	1		2		1		1		12

After the kind of season through which Caminiti put all his owners, including Tom Hicks, I'm quite surprised he hasn't been offered more endorsement contracts. Plenty of brands would be lucky to get the 1996 NL MVP as a spokesmen, and I have no idea why no one's approached him to sponsor Coke. Neither Texas team has room for him next year, so I expect he might finally be spending some time at home.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jarrod Patterson		41	11	.268	2	4	0	6	3B-13
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	0		1		0		1
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	0		1		0		1

He's developed some plate discipline but really hasn't ever had a successful season outside of some of the best hitters' parks in the minors. As he's heading into his peak years, I don't see his worth increasing substantially, but he could have some limited value if he can maintain a respectable average while adding a few dingers. The recent Detroit acquisitions seem to leave no place for him in the infield, so he might shortly continue his minor league journeys with a different team.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Luis Lopez		119	29	.244	3	10	0	10	3B-28
TOR Bluejays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		0		0
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	0		1		0		0

Lopez's very good plate discipline allows him to maintain consistently high albeit relatively empty batting averages. He's shifted enough of his doubles' power into home runs so he will have value almost anywhere he goes, but his skills are somewhat limited. His upside career is a more reliable Ron Coomer, and all he needs is one mananger to take a liking to him to earn several years of big league service time. I have to think he could be a very nice and economical replacement for Paquette on the Cardinals although half the other teams in baseball could also use him.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Joe Crede		50	11	.220	0	7	1	1	3B-15
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		-1		0		7
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-1		0		0		0		2

He's ready. While his plate discipline remains a little weak, his power and defense are ready for a solid hitters' park in Comiskey. The White Sox need to leave him alone at third for two or three years to see if he can play, and I suspect they'll be rewarded nicely. He doesn't have the upside of someone like Chavez who's both the same age and has three more years of major league experience, but Crede can anchor the Sox' Hot Corner for several years with above average production. A double digit big is likely warranted.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Vinny Castilla		93	20	.215	2	9	0	7	3B-24
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-1		-1		14
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-1		-1		-1		0		11

Mr. Hyde in Florida, Dr. Jekyll everywhere else, Castilla's still young enough to continue his rebound. Most everyone knows his problems: weak plate discipline, altitude-enhanced career numbers, and a solid reputation belying his actual performance. Someone always will overbid for him, and there's no reason for that someone to be you.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mark Lewis		13	1	.077	0	0	0	1	3B-4
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-1		-1
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	-2		-1		-1		-1

Lewis keeps returning to the majors on the basis of a solid defensive reputation at a few positions around the infield. Unfortunately, he still has no plate discipline, power, or speed, so he's just blocking the path of more qualified players to Cleveland's roster and yours.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Scott Sheldon		120	24	.200	3	11	1	11	3B-38
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-2		-2		-1
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	-2		-1		-1		-1

Sheldon posted some extremely impressive power numbers during his two full years in Oklahoma before the Rangers began using him as a utilityman. He has starting ability despite poor plate discipline, but his window is closing rapidly. I'd avoid him as a reserve because his BA is simply too risky, although feel free to pick him up should he suddenly receive more playing time, since his average should stabilize over more at-bats, allowing you to employ his power tool.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jared Sandberg		136	28	.206	1	15	1	13	3B-38
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-2		-2
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		-1		-1		-1

Tampa somehow thinks Sandberg is their third basemen of the future, a perfect example of their systematically flawed decision-making process. Other than a known name and bloodline, there's little other reason to award him major league service time. He's never displayed any plate discipline, has little speed, and hasn't really shown much power either. The Devil Rays nevertheless remain convinced that he's a better third sacker than Aubrey Huff, a decision certain to cost them several games in the near future. He's worth a $1 flyer if he wins the starting job outright; don't bother bidding under other circumstances.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Luis Sojo		79	13	.165	0	9	1	5	3B-17
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		-3		-2
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		-2		-2		-2

Sojo's never been anything more than an endgame $1-BA-won't-hurt-you pick, and he might have finally reached the end of the line this year. I fully expect he'll become a Yankee coach within the next couple seasons. Even if he comes back for a few more games next year, he's still not worth your time or a roster spot, so hope he's content with his four World Series' rings.

There's really not too much of interest here; mainly some former star NL third sackers, along with a couple utility guys, non-prospects, a AAAA hitter in Lopez, and one real prospect in Crede. The dearth of depth at the position in the AL this year makes a top pick even more important in next year's draft unless you really want to gamble with one of the rookies. Crede might be the safest bet to get the most at-bats, but guys like Blalock, Henson, and even Cuddyer should have more long-term potential.

We'll review minor league free agents and AAA/AA prospects from the American League tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: After a week of non-stop action followed by long periods of nothing, followed by more non-stop action, etc., we need a break from baseball for a few hours. So we're headed out to the movies again, probably to Vanilla Sky or something like that. The Fellowship of the Ring is the must-see for next week, and we're trying to get a couple of the other interesting flicks out of the way now. If you have the time, I suspect you could also use a break before the rest of the month, so go out and relax this weekend. As before, please send in comments on any level of the Rule Five draft, and I'll be happy to discuss them along with the minor league portions on Sunday.