It's my birthday, and
I'll post when I want to
Post when I want to
Post when I want to
Etc.

Sorry for the delay in posting; I didn't get started writing this until very late with all the arbitration decisions and moves yesterday. I hope you didn't mind waiting an extra couple hours too much.

Of course, now that I'm actually finishing up this column, I once again gape in awe at the absolute stupidity of major league general managers. Do they really all hate extra draft picks? Among the players that were not offered arbitration who would not have accepted: Hideo Nomo, Aaron Sele, John Burkett, Terry Adams, and my personal favorite, Ricky Gutierrez. Boston, Seattle, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Chicago are merely some of the teams that betrayed their fans yesterday when they threw away a late first round draft pick as well as a high conditional pick, probably a first or second rounder. I don't believe for a second that they all wanted to save the $1.5 million in signing bonuses.

On a more personal note, the Cubs let pride stand in the way of re-signing one of the most consistent shortstops in baseball. He's not an All-Star but reportedly wanted less money than someone like Alex S. Gonzalez. They should have at least offered him arbitration and taken the draft picks, and now they'll have to burn a pitching prospect to pick up one of the worst offensive shortstops in baseball. While the Pokey Reese rumors have died down, Neifi Perez is again suggested as an acceptable replacement.

I really only see three acceptable alternatives. First, just replace Gutierrez with the internal candidates. Either Ojeda and/or Bellhorn could platoon/start, and Hill could even be shifted back to his preferred shortstop position until someone like Luis Montanez is ready. Second, they can grab one of the several decent minor league free agents covered in last weeks' articles. Third, they can deal Mike Meyers for Orlando Cabrera. Some Chicago papers have suggested that Cabrera is available with Brandon Phillips approaching the majors, and considering that Montreal accepted Scott Downs for Rondell White, Meyers seems similar and "fair" compensation for Cabrera. Any of these would work; just please keep Pokey away from the Windy City.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the NL

National League East

Atlanta Braves
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Travis Wilson, 23, B:R, T:R. Like apparently all Atlanta hitting prospects, Wilson needs help on his plate discipline. Wilson needs so much more help right now than someone like Betemit that I'm not sure when he'll be prepared to succeed in the majors. I know he impressed some of the staff including Bobby Cox in spring training, but his BB:K at A+ Myrtle Beach in 2000 were 16:111 in 484 AB. In 2001, the Braves only let him have 123 AB in AA with an equally bad 3:24 BB:K ratio, and they likely erred in promoting him to AAA Richmond since he lost about 200 points of OPS thanks largely to a 7:81 ratio in 383 AB. I think he needs to go back and master AA before they should return him to Richmond, and he definitely has no place as a backup infielder or worse in Atlanta. He has some upside for the future, although I'm not sure he's worth acquiring for at least another year or two.

Florida Marlins
Minor League Free Agents:
Chris Clapinski, 29, B:S, T:R. Clapinski has a relatively solid eye with a little power, but I just don't see him receiving much more major league service time unless a couple injuries occur in front of him. He's been with the Marlins for his entire 10-year career, and I see no reason why they shouldn't re-sign him since he's a dependable fielder that can play anywhere around the infield. Organization players like Clapinski are valuable to have when you're shifting around players in the middle of the year. Hopefully he's paying enough attention where he can begin coaching in a few years, since any mark he's likely to make in the big leagues won't be while playing.
Paco (Noberto) Martin, 34, B:R, T:R. Martin's been in professional baseball for eighteen years and he's still a decent AAA utility guy. I don't really see him contributing in the majors again since his plate discipline isn't particularly good and he's never had much power; most of his speed has also disappeared with age. He might make another squad or two as an injury replacement, but he's too risky for you to draft.

Prospects:
Kevin Hooper, 24, B:R, T:R. I'm not sure if he'll ever have enough power to force teams to keep him in the majors, but he's shown very good plate discipline in his three seasons with excellent OBPs that allow him to use his decent speed. Hooper needs to learn to drive the ball, since unless he can start keeping his SLG above that excellent OBP, his future prospects are limited.
Pablo Ozuna, 23, B:R, T:R. He missed all of last season with a wrist injury and really needs a full year at AAA after a late-season 2000 major league promotion straight from AA Portland. Ozuna is still rather young and could mature into a capable starting middle infielder at either position. While most of his 2000 improvement can be atttributed to his repeating the level, he still managed an excellent BB:K improvement from 13:50 to 40:55. While he might be a decent utility infielder now, considering his lost year of development time, I'd stick him back in AAA for at least a half-season until he shows that he retained his plate discipline and begins stealing bases more efficiently.

Montreal Expos
Minor League Free Agents:
John Cotton, 29, B:L, T:R. A 2000 Olympian for Team USA, Cotton could contribute as a utility infielder in the majors right now for any team in the league. He plays everywhere except shortstop and catcher, and while his plate discipline isn't wonderful, he keeps a good BA with solid power and a little speed. Cotton is basically a left-handed Craig Paquette, a useful tool for teams that can stomach a somewhat problematic OBP. Any money that Paquette gets as a free agent this year could just as easily go to Cotton, especially since his left bat is more valuable.

Prospects:
Albenis Machado was reviewed with shortstops.

New York Mets
Minor League Free Agents:
Gabby Martinez, 27, B:R, T:R. Martinez has no power, questionable plate discipline, and only a little speed. His value lies in playing acceptable defense everywhere but catcher, and he's probably a decent option to own when you're promoting other prospects around him. He has no place playing regularly in AAA or above, so don't pick him up if he ever gets a cup-of-coffee.
Jeremy (Jamie) Saylor, 26, B:L, T:R. Saylor is a decent defender with inconsistent speed who only displays passable plate discipline with little power. I don't think he's ready to compete at the highest levels of baseball right now, but he still has a few years left to put all his skills together for a season or two. Avoid him until his minor league numbers show more consistency.

Prospects:
Carlos Hernandez, 25, B:R, T:R. Hernandez should have been given a longer look by both the Astros and Mariners since he has good speed and decent defense around the left side of the infield. He has a lot more potential as a utility player than almost anyone the Dodgers ran through the major league roster last year. Hernandez might get a chance as a backup in New York if they don't bring in a replacement for Ventura right away, but I suspect he'll need to find an organization with less middle infield depth before he'll return to the majors.
John Tamargo, 26, B:S, T:R. Tamargo has solid plate discipline and defensive ability without any noticeable extra-based power. He could develop some as he matures over the next few years, and that would strengthen a set of credentials currently limited to acceptable on-base ability. I don't think he'll hurt you when he makes the majors, but his BA is weak enough where I probably wouldn't even take a chance.

Philadelphia Phillies
Minor League Free Agents:
Steve Sisco, 31, B:R, T:R. Sisco's developed some decent power over the last few years, but he probably doesn't have enough offense for 2B or 3B in the majors thanks to his weak plate discipline. Since he does't play shortstop, his advancement opportunities appear rather limited at the moment. His one cup-of-coffee might have been with Atlanta in 2000, and I'd have serious reservations about picking him up if he did receive another since his BA is both a little weak and isn't supported by his BB:K.
Key Voshell, 24, B:R, T:R. Key doesn't really have enough offense for the higher levels of the minors and would probably be better off just staying in the Frontier League where he's spent at least part of the last three seasons. He still could have a successful minor league career since he hasn't had enough playing time to allow an accurate interpretation of his abilities.
David Newhan and P.J. Forbes were discussed with National League 2B.

Prospects:
Jason Knupfer, 26, B:R, T:R. He plays decent defense and has acceptable plate discipline, but his current abilities do not suggest he'll ever rise above the AAA level. Knupfer lacks any real power or speed, and without displaying one real offensive tool, I doubt he'll receive much consideration for further advancement.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs
Minor League Free Agents:
Randy Meadows, 24, B:R, T:R. Meadows has no power, speed, or plate discipline, which explains why the Cubs picked him up from the Expos in the middle of the year. Forget about a promising future; I don't even see much of a present for Meadows in organized baseball, so I hope he at least enjoyed the travel.

Prospects:
Bobby Hill, 23, B:S, T:R. Hill can succeed in the majors right now as a second baseman and leadoff hitter. His plate discipline and baserunning abilities are excellent, he's displayed solid defense, and he should develop some power in time. However, the Cubs still went out and re-signed DeShields instead of giving Hill the opportunity to start in 2002.
Why did they decide to hold back one of their best prospects? Jess referred to Hill's AFL performance as "uninspiring and unimpressive" when discussing the DeShields deal a few days ago. We received a reader objection to the word "unimpressive" as Hill slugged .451 with a .442 OBP.
To elaborate on her comments, Hill's performance appeared "uninspiring" since there were significant rumors of him slacking off in every aspect of his game; he reportedly believed he was too good a ballplayer to be wasting his time in Arizona, or something like that.
John Sickels recently reported that "[Cubs President and GM Andy] MacPhail also told me that Bobby Hill is ticketed for Triple-A next spring, unless he has a blistering spring training. They are apparently not happy with the work ethic he showed in Arizona."
We took this information to mean that the Cubs were quite "unimpressed" with Hill's performance, a belief that was reinforced by DeShields' new deal. While I doubt this happens too often, a player can compile relatively excellent statistics without appearing impressive in actual game play. Whether the situation is fair or not, the impressions of scouts are usually going to determine how and if a player advances, so the impression is perhaps even more important than the performance for most of the less modern organizations.
I also encourage everyone to take a look at Todd Zola's AFL report at the Masters of Fantasy Baseball website. Mastersball published an absolutely fantastic guide to the Arizona Fall League with about a third of a page devoted to every player in the league, including statistics, biographical information, scouting report, and projections. They were kind enough to hand this out for free to everyone at the AFL Symposium, and it's easily one of the most useful books for evaluating prospects for 2002. Todd's post-symposium thoughts online include a discussion of Hill that provides even more justification for calling him "unimpressive", as well as several other interesting tidbits about the conference.
Despite these attitude problems, Hill offers significant SB and BA upside at 2B from the moment he makes the majors. He and Austin Kearns are the top two National League offensive prospects that likely won't start the year in the majors but will still contribute in 2002, making the two of them worthy of the top 2002 minor league picks.
Dennis Abreu, 23, B:R, T:R. Abreu has solid speed and plays decent defense, but lack of power or plate discipline will keep him out of the majors. He still has plenty of time to improve in both of these areas, although I doubt he'll stay with the Cubs much longer. I wouldn't be surprised to see him with his brother Bobby (at least in spring training) with the Phillies in a year or two.

Cincinnati Reds
Minor League Free Agents:
Mike Metcalfe, 28, B:S, T:R. Metcalfe's speed is quite impressive and his career BB:K is over 1. He also plays solid defense at 2B and OF, leaving me quite confused as to why he's not in the majors. I admit he has little power, but Metcalfe's skills over the last few years appear worthy of starting in the majors, so I don't understand why no one will at least give him a regular utility job. Pick him up if he makes the majors, since his downside is probably Damian Rolls' 2001 year, except with potentially more steals.
Bobby Morris, 28, B:R, T:R. Morris has fantastic plate discipline that supports solid averages across the board. He doesn't have much power or speed but could definitely contribute in the majors in at least a utility role. The Reds owned three extremely solid AAAA 2B this year, and I'm not quite sure why they employed Juan Castro instead of taking advantage of free talent already in their system.
Bill Selby was discussed with National League 2B.

Prospects:
Andy Beattie, 22, B:S, T:R. Beattie should probably receive a full year at AA next season to allow his doubles' power from A-ball to catch up with his fairly solid plate discipline, speed, and defense. He has the tools to mature into a worthy double play partner for Gookie Dawkins, although he'll need to make significant improvements in his game before he's ready for the majors.

Houston Astros
Minor League Free Agents:
Jim Chamblee, 26, B:R, T:R. In his third trip to AAA Pawtucket for Boston, Chamblee continued to show no improvement in his horrible plate discipline. He has some power, but it's deteriorated over the last year or two and no longer outweighs his weak OBP. Any chance he has of progressing to the majors is contingent upon him finding an organization that doesn't mind his huge number of strikeouts. He might have some success overseas where a power-hitting 2B could be a definite advantage.
Cesar Morillo, 27, B:S, T:R. Morillo has a .501 OPS in 93 AB at AA Round Rock, perhaps the best hitters' park in the minors. He's never shown much power, speed, or plate discipline, and I would be surprised if he was with a minor league team next year. Since he's had more success in the Independent Leagues, he should probably return there for at least a season or two unless he really improves his game in his prime.

Prospects:
Keith Ginter will be covered with major league pinch-hitters.
Dave Matranga, 24, B:R, T:R. Matranga's major problem is a lack of plate discipline, and he also doesn't possess much overly projectable doubles' power. He's shown little progress in two years at AA Round Rock, and with a falling SLG countering a rising OBP, I'm not sure that he's shown sufficent ability to perform above AAA. I think he'll be a decent organization guy for another couple of years, but he's limited to a backup role at best.

Milwaukee Brewers
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Marcos Scutaro, 25, B:R, T:R. After a few seasons of posting consistently improving BB:K ratios at AAA Buffalo for Cleveland along with impressive speed and decent power, Scutaro deserves the chance to compete at the major league level. He should have received significant playing time due to Belliard's injury. His season wasn't quite as good as past years with success in only 11 of his 22 stolen base attempts, but he kept his OBP at .382 with good defense, a combination that should put him in competition with Belliard for both the second base and leadoff jobs. If they don't start utilizing his skills, he'll be starting elsewhere in the near future when some smart GM deals a useless utility infielder for a prospect that Milwaukee won't recognize.
Jeff Pickler, 25, B:L, T:R. I first noticed Pickler posting some decent numbers around this year's All-Star break, and he finished the year with an impressive 60:51 BB:K ratio in 523 AB at AA Huntsville. He also stole 34 bases in 48 attempts and committed only 13 errors in 132 games at 2B. Unfortunately he showed almost no power with a SLG 33 points below his .360 OBP. An unintended effect of holding Scutaro back is that Pickler repeated AA for a third time when the Brewers should have determined if he could maintain his OBP and speed at AAA. Like almost all Milwaukee prospects, he's too old for his league, although I have faith that Pickler will still make the majors for a few years.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Minor League Free Agents:
Jeff Berblinger, 30, B:R, T:R. Berblinger keeps returning to AAA despite only mediocre power and speed numbers to go with both weak BB:K and BA. He had significant success in the Atlantic League in 1999, and might be better off plying his trade in an environment where he could have more success. The most notable thing about his career is that he was the Rule V pick that Detroit traded at the Rule V draft for Deivi Cruz back in 1996.
Richard Paz, 23, B:R, T:R. Paz has exceptional plate discipline and a little speed. Of course the Orioles and now the Pirates don't recognize the value of these skills and have not tested him above the AA level. His OBP ability could be very valuable to at least AAA managers if not at higher levels, and he could have a decent major league career if he can contribute some walks, steals and decent defense in the bigs.
Mendy Lopez was discussed with National League 2B.

Prospects:
Kevin Haverbusch, 25, B:R, T:R. Haverbusch showed significant power upon a mid-season promotion to AAA Nashville, although I have reservations as to his major league viability. His plate discipline is quite weak, he doesn't have a set position, and nothing in his statistical history appears too impressive. He'll need a very solid season at AAA in 2002 to stay in the Pirates' plans.

St. Louis Cardinals
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
T.J. Maier, 26, B:R, T:R. Maier has great plate discipline and defense along with a little speed and some doubles' power. His power numbers didn't improve when the Cardinals left him at AA again this season, so his upside is probably as a AAAA guy like Stubby Clapp but without the power. Interesting biographical information: he's one of the few minor leaguers born in Iran.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor League Free Agents:
Chris Lemonis, 27, B:L, T:R. His weak plate discipline and overall lack of tools leave him as a AAA fill-in at best. I expect he'll have several more seasons as a successful AA player, but I don't expect him to find success at higher levels.

Prospects:
None.

Colorado Rockies
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Brent Butler, 23, B:R, T:R. Butler was accidentally left out of the major league rankings due to a technical oversight, but he earned about a dollar across the board in the majors. After a solid 2000 season at AAA Colorado Springs, he probably should have started in the majors this season but the Rockies appear unimpressed with his tools. His plate discipline slipped dramatically this season in a return to AAA although he started converting some of his doubles' power into home runs. Once promoted to the majors as a reserve, his BB:K returned to the 1:1 that he hovered around in past years. As the only real backup shortstop in Colorado to an equally raw albeit more talented Juan Uribe, Butler is only a random injury away from significant playing time and value. He should hold a decent average with a couple homers as a backup, and he's definitely worth a couple bucks at the draft.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Minor League Free Agents:
Andy Stankiewicz, 36, B:R, T:R. Stanky's finishing up a somewhat distinguished AAAA career in which he played for the Yankees in the early 90's before they started winning World Series, the Astros in the mid-90's before they started making the playoffs, and the Diamondbacks in their first season. He's always had decent plate discipline without much power or speed after his first few seasons. He might receive one more big league appearance as an injury replacement next season, but his roto value remains as low as it always was.

Prospects:
Joe Thurston, 21, B:L, T:R. Thurston followed up a decent year at AA Jacksonville with a very impressive AFL campaign, improving his already solid plate discipline while dramatically increasing his SB% against better competition. He needs at least a full year at AAA, but should be ready to displace Grudzielanek some time in 2003. His brief minor league career shows exceptional speed and on-base ability along with solid power potential, and while I wouldn't spend a first round Ultra pick on him, he should be drafted relatively high in most minor league drafts.

San Diego Padres
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Jake Thrower, 25, B:S, T:R. I still can't fathom why he's not on the mound, especially since he hasn't shown much ability at the upper levels of the minors. This season was his first decent year above A ball in three attempts, and his main attributes were an acceptable 45:66 BB:K ratio and relatively consistent defense. He didn't really impress us in Arizona, and he'll need to improve almost across the board soon if he wants to have more than a cup-of-coffee in the majors.
John Powers, 27, B:L, T:R. Powers had an extremely similar year to Thrower at AA Mobile, which unfortunately wound up worse statistically than his previous two years there. He doesn't have much chance to advance in the loaded San Diego system, though I think he could have some success in a different system. I expect him to move on after this season to an organization that doesn't have several young middle infielders already at the major league level.

San Francisco Giants
Minor League Free Agents:
Juan Melo, 25, B:S, T:R. Melo has developed decent power and great defense but his severely lacking plate discipline will keep him in AAA for most of his career. Several teams could use his skills now as an infield backup, and hopefully he'll have the opportunity to win a job in the spring with an organization that can teach him some command of the strike zone.

Prospects:
Marco Pernalete, 22, B:S, T:R. He repeated the California league four times before the Giants promoted him after he posted a .873 OPS to begin this season. They even pushed him up to AAA when they needed help late in the season, though he should be returned to AA for 2002. He has some long-term upside but he needs to continue to improve his plate discipline while maintaining his barely acceptable power and speed levels of previous seasons.
Joe Jester, 22, B:R, T:R. Michael Ironside always seemed the most impressive pilot to me in Top Gun, and his callsign's namesake is one of the more impressive Giant prospects. He needs to work on his plate discipline, but his defense appears solid; he makes contact and shows good speed. He's still at least a year or two away from succeeding in the majors, although I'd definitely keep him in mind for your 2003 minor league draft.

We saw almost every decent NL second base prospect in the Arizona Fall League this year, and Hill and Thurston stand out above this crop in the same way that German and Harris have a brighter roto future than the rest of their AL counterparts. Many future starting second basemen will begin their careers as shortstops, and Hill and Thurston have both played extensively there in the past. Most major league teams are probably mistaken in not giving more of a chance to guys like Scutaro and Paz, since their OBP ability off a big league bench is more valuable than a slight defensive improvement late in the game. Several of the above players should receive more opportunities, and a stupid idea like contraction would only exacerbate their situations.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Go take a look at the final arbitration list. See what decisions your team made. Do you agree with them? Do you agree with any of the others, or more likely, what teams made mistakes? Please write in and let us know your opinions on the final arbitration decisions, and I'll discuss any we receive in tomorrow's column.