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November
30th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Shortstop Week, Day Five

by Tim Polko

We only have 12 more shortstops that played in the AL this year, so I'm going to add some team analysis where I feel it might be helpful in understanding the situation of some of these players (and where it helps to make fun of Allard Baird's dumb moves).

American League Shortstops without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

27. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Erick Almonte 42.5000020 SS-4
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0111
2001 Age: 23 5x5: 0101

Almonte advanced to AAA Columbus this year and simultaneously improved in almost every category. He had a small drop in steals but compensated with an increase in SLG to .464. More impressively, he significantly upped his walk rate to 13% from 8% and his BB:K increased from .27 to .49, boosting him to a cumulative OPS increase of 80 pts to .833 in a pitchers' park and league. To put these numbers in perspective, Almonte would have had almost identical offensive numbers to Soriano if he'd played in the majors this season, sans steals. If the Yankees are considering moving Soriano to LF anyway, they should do so instead of signing a free agent and give the 2B job to Almonte.

I'm mildly surprised that I'm suggesting this, but I think the Yankees should put their money into the bullpen this year. I should mention that I'd really like to see Giambi return to Oakland, since I believe it's both his best option given his family ties and that Oakland might have a better chance of winning it all within the next two years than the Yankees.

The Bronx Bombers' top priority should be setting up the club for another potential dynasty, and that means working in the rookies even if you don't go further than the first round of the playoffs next year. Almonte and Johnson can start now on the right side of the infield. Jeter and Bernie are set for much of the decade. Soriano and Posada need long-term extensions now for cost certainty, but they'll both be in the lineup for years to come. Henson should be ready by September and Enrique Wilson can fill in until then (or Almonte can play 3B, and then can switch with Soriano when Henson comes up). These moves leave openings at RF and DH, which can be filled by Justice and Spencer for most of the next two years until Juan Rivera and Marcus Thames are ready. They can always grab a free agent next year if one of these guys fizzles, but they could have a completely homegrown lineup starting by the end of 2003, a stunning achievement in this day even given their resources.

Yankee pitching is a little more complicated. Mussina and Pettitte are long-term solution as the top two starters, and Rivera should be solid for at least a couple more years at closer. Clemens, while a dominant pitcher, has expressed an interest in the past in returning to Texas to finish his career. The Yankees can enjoy him as anywhere from their ace to #3 for the next two years, let him leave as a free agent, spend the money on newly arbitration-eligible offensive players, and even get a couple draft picks as compensation.

Both the end of the rotation and bullpen depth appear a bit more murky. Orlando Hernandez's skills appear to have eroded somewhat and he should be allowed to leave after 2002 as a free agent. At least one of the Yankees young left-handed pitching prospects (Randy Keisler, Ted Lilly, Brandon Claussen, Alex Graman, etc.) should develop into at least a reliable #4 starter for a few years. They should be able to fill-in with some of these prospects as rotating 5th starters for a while, so the only long-term need would be to replace Clemens with a power right-hander in the #3 spot, an easy fix given the Yankees' millions.

Now that the rest of the team is fairly settled, we're left with one of the few glaring holes over the last few years. The Yankees have very little bullpen depth beyond Rivera, with dependable LHP/RHP setup guys in Stanton and Nelson, followed by Mendoza this year. Stanton and Mendoza should be acceptable for another few years, and Jay Witasick also should perform solidly. If I were Brian Cashman, I'd ignore the older free agents on offense and spend 6 to 8 million on two top setup guys this offseason. For the remaining two spots, I'd spend whatever necessary to secure Steve Karsay and Jason Christiansen, the top two available relievers when healthy. Their injury histories might serve to depress their prices a little, but even spending $16M/4 on each of them might make sense to insure that the veteran starters only need to pitch six innings.

All these moves leave the Yankees with a payroll in the $110M range for the next few years, allowing them to show a decrease in payroll from the last year or two while retaining their homegrown stars. There's also the added benefit of a nucleus full of potentially solid veterans and even a few likely HOF'ers like Jeter, Mussina, and Rivera and perhaps Bernie and Pettitte. If the Yankees can avoid the temptation of the free agent signing, they can placate some of the small market teams by not spending even more money and still field a highly competitive team with World Series' potential every year. King George needs to resist his whims and use their highly-developed farm system to help themselves instead of other teams.

Of course this means that they'll ignore all of my intelligent ideas, spend $35 million on three or four free agents this offseason, piss off every small market team, and wind up with the Expos in Newark or Brooklyn once the owners realize that the revenue disparity problem only means that Yankees have too much money.


28. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Neifi Perez 19948.241112318 SS-46
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 0101

Neifi won't be worth a long-term deal since his Colorado-inflated numbers make his offensive history look much more impressive than his actual performance. KC is making a smart decision to strongly consider trading him for someone like Luke Prokopec. They should probably hold out for someone with more upside like Chin-Feng Chen, but if they can get Prokopec, they can field an acceptable rotation of Suppan, Prokopec, Stein, George, and Jimmy Gobble. Then they can focus on re-signing Sweeney and Beltran, rebuilding their offense around their two best players.

If they just had taken the three A's prospects for Dye, the Royals would have a 2B with tremendous potential in Jose Ortiz, an addition that allows them to keep Carlos Febles at utility infielder. The reduced playing time would drive down his arbitration values and put less stress on his injury-prone body until someone will trade a decent prospect for him. Mario Encarnacion could be a long-term solution in right field, and Belitz gives them the solid bullpen lefty for which they've been searching for years. Plus, they could have still traded Rey Sanchez, probably for more value than just Machado and Voyles since they would have been less desperate to deal, and then re-signed him in the off-season. Sanchez liked KC and rumors indicate he'd like to return, so they could have helped themselves at three positions instead of only receiving a semi-replaceable RHP like Prokopec.


29. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Enrique Wilson 9924.242112010 SS-20
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 0000

The Yankees have a chance to pull a fast one here if they can resist a rumored expensive temporary placeholder for Henson. Wilson has played very well historically when given regular playing time, so the Yankees can start him for a couple months, and either keep him as a more established utility infielder or deal him since someone might then consider him a potential starter. Cashman made a nice deal when he picked up Wilson for Damaso Marte, who probably will peak as an average lefty reliever despite some impressive 2002 numbers with the Pirates.


30. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
James Lofton 265.1920121 SS-7
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -1000

Lofton has solid speed but few other abilities. He's spent the last three years in the independent Western League but he doesn't control the strike zone, has very little power, and probably won't be contributing in the majors anytime in the near future. I doubt that he could maintain an acceptable BA, so his upside is probably a dozen steals and a .220 BA without a large dollop of luck.


31. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ramon Vazquez 358.2290405 SS-10
SEA Mariners DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 24 5x5: -1000

Vazquez has always shown very good plate discipline, some speed, consistent defense at shortstop, and a little bit of power. There's no reason for Seattle not to start him at SS this year, especially if they can receive good value for Carlos Guillen in trade. Vazquez could be an excellent 8th hitter in that lineup, able to drive in the guys above him but also to potentially set the table for a very dangerous top-of-the-order. Either Vazquez or Guillen could also play second, allowing them to ignore Bret Boone in favor of a more consistently powerful bat, probably at LF, but they certainly have enough prospects to acquire Scott Rolen. I suspect they'll wind up just dealing for Jeff Cirillo, and including Guillen in that deal, if Colorado wanted him, would open up playing time for Vazquez. If you think he'll start, bid several dollars on him, as his average at the very least won't hurt you, and he could easily break double-digits in both homers and steals, along with the solid runs and RBI that the Mariners' lineup generates.


32. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Kelly Dransfeldt 30.0000000 SS-3
TEX Rangers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -10-10
2001 Age: 26 5x5: -10-10

Texas DFA'd Dransfeldt when they acquired Herb Perry, so he could wind up almost anywhere next season. He has apparently decent power numbers that are mostly the result of a large number of at-bats. His plate discipline has never been even decent, and he matches acceptable speed with bad instincts, getting caught stealing almost as many as the dozen bases he stole. Dransfeldt's lack of plate discipline makes him a very risky roto pick, and since he likely won't contribute much in any other category, you'll probably want to avoid him.


33. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jason Maxwell 6813.19111024 SS-12
MIN Twins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 29 5x5: -10-10

Maxwell's plate discipline isn't awful and he has a little speed and power, but he's never shown any ability to compete at the major league level. He should be avoided for fantasy purposes unless you expect him to start for several weeks, a proposition that grows more unlikely with every questionable major league appearance.


34. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
John Valentin 6012.2001508 SS-18
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1 3
2001 Age: 34 5x5: -1-1-1-1 Res

Valentin's solid major league career has been terribly marred by injuries over the past couple of years. He hasn't even had a hundred at-bats since 1999, so his skills might have deteriorated due to lack of use. While he still has the ability to contribute to both real and fantasy teams, you should definitely make sure he's healthy and not playing on turf before drafting him. Since he'll be shortstop-eligible, his power might make him worth a low gamble on draft day, but be warned that he seems extremely fragile.


35. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Wilson Delgado 253.1200101 SS-6
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -2-2-2-1
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Delgado has a better combination of plate discipline and power than any other Royal shortstop this season, but they never really gave him a chance to succeed in the majors. He could have filled in at shortstop after a Sanchez trade, but they preferred to ignore him in AAA for the year instead. I don't think that Delgado will ever have much use for a fantasy team, but he could find success as a AAAA middle infielder and utility player if he ever got a break.


36. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
John McDonald 222.0910001 SS-9
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -3-2-2-1
2001 Age: 26 5x5: -2-1-1-1

McDonald has no power and only a little speed; his primary value to a team is his ability to play almost every position. Unfortunately, his control of the strike zone is fairly poor, so I doubt he could help a fantasy team at all. Some sources have suggested that McDonald could receive more playing time next year with the departure of the entire Cleveland starting OF, but I don't plan to draft him until he proves that he can maintain a decent BA in the majors.


37. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Andy Sheets 15330.196114210 SS-49
TB Devil Rays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -4-3-3-2
2001 Age: 29 5x5: -3-2-2-2

Sheets doesn't have much power or speed potential, and his other numbers are too inconsistent to warrant a place on most teams. His value mostly derives from his ability to play several positions decently, but I can't imagine a likely scenario in which he should be anything more than a defensive replacement.


38. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Craig Grebeck 412.0490201 SS-23
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -5-4-4-3
2001 Age: 36 5x5: -4-3-3-2

Grebeck has always had solid plate discipline but doesn't seem to make enough contact any more to allow his average to keep up with his command of the strike zone. His days as a productive utility player and part-time starter appear over, and while he could pop up in brief roles for the next year or two, I don't see how drafting him can help your team at all.



If superstars are undervalued at all in your league, American League shortstops could be a great way to secure a significant talent at a historically weak position. There's enough depth in the league that you should be able to draft a solid contributing player, and you might even be able to pick up a high-upside prospect for your MIF slot. Several of the listed SS also might find more long-term major league success at a different position, but you can take advantage of current shortstop eligibility to help your team out immediately.

We'll review minor league free agents and prospects from the AL tomorrow


Today's Fantasy Rx: Please write-in if you'd like me to discuss the roto possibilities at any particular team's shortstop position. I'm open to elaborating on several teams if there's interest for Sunday's article. If I don't receive many requests, I'll probably review the fantasy implications of the last week of free agents and trade rumors. We might hear something about one of the major free agents by then, but I think its more likely that only another small move or two will occur.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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