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Rotohelp
November
19th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Catcher Week, Day One

by Tim Polko

Welcome to Rotohelp's First Annual Catcher Week! We've been searching for years for a good post-season wrap-up of each position that includes specific dollar values. Not having yet found one, we're writing our own.

Beginning today with catchers, we'll spend most of each week reviewing each position in ascending order from those with the least depth, like catcher and shortstop, to those with the most variety: outfielders, starting pitching, and relief pitching.

The articles will generally appear in the following order:
Monday: National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Tuesday: Other interesting National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Wednesday: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Thursday: Other interesting American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Friday: Minor league players with 2002 fantasy potential.
Saturday and Sunday: TBD dependent upon signings, trades, etc.

Most fantasy publications place minor leaguers under various rubrics. Some lean towards scout-preferred players with better tools while others look at actual statistics. (Unknown Scout of "Advanced Age": "I don't care about the stats; all I care about is performance.")

We at Rotohelp believe that the primary interest of most fantasy owners is to identify farm system players that can help your team during the current season. Future prospects are good trade bait, but especially in leagues with small farms systems, future value doesn't really help your team.

Our minor league focus will remain centered on prospects close to the majors, with occasional discussion of long term guys like recent draft picks. As we've noticed a lack of rankings of Ready for Prime Time Prospects, we will attempt to fill this niche.

Although we realize that not every owner is interested in the specifics included in the following information, we hope to give most of you a valuable tool in analyzing past history to improve future performance.

National League Catchers with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats. H = Hits. BA = Batting Average. HR = Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In. SB = Stolen Bases. R = Runs. B = Bats. T = Throws.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value. DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value. ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League auction prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest positive draft value.


1. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Paul LoDuca 460147.3202590271 C-99, 1B-33
LA Dodgers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 23231817 1
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 22211716 3

Jim Tracy deserved Manager of the Year consideration just for his handling of LoDuca. He recognized that a solid OBP at the top of the lineup was more important than Tom Goodwin's speed despite the long-standing prejudice against leading off catchers not named Jason Kendall. With Karros' various ailments (most noticeable, an advanced case of suckiness), Tracy even used LoDuca at first to maximize his offense. With a knowledgeable manager and playing time, LoDuca managed to turn his latent talent into the best fantasy season by a 2001 National League catcher. His .221 September average was balanced out by 13 walks against only 5 strikeouts, and his overall production appears to be the start of a trend rather than a career peak.


2. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mike Piazza 503151.3003694081 C-130
NY Mets DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 21211616 31
2001 Age: 32 5x5: 21201615 28

Another solid season by the best offensive catcher in history. He likely didn't earn any of you a profit this season, but he continues to perform at Hall of Fame levels. Piazza's numbers should also take a small jump up if he ever moves to first base, leaving the Mets with a hole behind the plate but a stronger order centerpiece on his way to 500 home runs.


3. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jason Kendall 606161.26610531384 C-133, OF-28
PIT Pirates DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 101088 29
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 121299 25

No one expected numbers this shallow, especially not in the expert leagues. Kendall's walk rate fell off dramatically this year, and despite maintaining command of the strike zone, his OBP suffered as a result. Lloyd McClendon needs to leave him in the 2 hole to maximize his peak offensive years by getting him plenty of fastballs in front of Brian Giles and behind a hopefully healthy Adrian Brown.


4. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Javy Lopez 438117.2671766145 C-127
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 7866 21
2001 Age: 30 5x5: 7866 16

Javy's OPS declined to its lowest point since his rookie season. Either he's spent too much time behind the plate or Greg Maddux's refusal to throw to him finally must…just…hurt…too much. Like all catchers with some hitting ability, he should find a willing free agent market, but might be best served returning to the Atlanta environment where he's excelled in the past. Of course, Atlanta should probably look for a new backstop since Lopez might be best served by moving to a less strenuous position, like Left Bench.


5. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Charles Johnson 451117.2591875051 C-125
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 6655 13
2001 Age: 29 5x5: 7756 16

CJ returned to his hometown and both Marlins' fans cheered wildly. He didn't repeat his offensive season from 2000 but clearly maintained his position as one of the best all-around catchers in the game. Should he choose to exercise his player option and leave as a free agent, the Marlins do have capable replacements ready, but should hope to keep a former franchise cornerstone that still can anchor their defense.


6. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Damian Miller 380103.2711347045 C-121
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 6655 6
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 6755 8

Miller's spotty postseason shouldn't obscure another decent year by perhaps the Diamondbacks' single best expansion pick. His defense sometimes lacks finesse, but his consistently solid production from a very weak position league-wide gives the Snakes an advantage. (An advantage they squander by employing Tony Womack as a lead-off hitter, Series' success notwithstanding.)


7. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brent Mayne 16053.331020015 C-44
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 66645 6
2001 Age: 3 5x5: 4544 3

His 160 at-bats were pure gold for anyone who drafted him for a buck or two. Unfortunately, he blocked Ben Petrick better than the plate, leaving most owners quite upset with the entire situation. Kansas City added to our problems by dealing for him and then signing him to a contract extension (instead of the superior Gregg Zaun). Mayne is a quality platoon catcher who gives your team a decent offensive boost instead of none at all. Never spend more than $5 on guys like him, but don't be afraid to go to $3 or 4 for that extra advantage over your leaguemates.


8. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Eli Marrero 20354.266623637 C-65
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 4544
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 4544 1

The forgotten St. Louis catcher quietly turned in a very helpful performance. Marrero has displayed some offensive talent in the past, so picking up a half dozen homers and steals from a $1 catcher likely helped many owners. He is definitely a player to target for next season, as another three-buck profit from a one-dollar catcher leaves you extra money to spend elsewhere. You should remember that only Mike Matheny's knife-handling skills stand between Marrero and 400 at-bats (and earning double digits of roto value).


9. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Benito Santiago 477125.262645539 C-130
SF Giants DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 4534
2001 Age: 36 5x5: 4644 1

The Man with the Golden Arm just won't go away. I remember opening up a pack with his 1987 Topps' rookie card while watching a MacGyver episode; explosions and Santiago's explosive right arm have always seemed to go well together since that day. Benny's reruns should continue until teams stop needing catchers with good defense and a little pop in their bats, which might mean Santiago continues in syndication forever. Okay, so maybe not forever, but he should have a couple seasons left in which he won't hurt you for a dollar. I expect him to return to Frisco, but there's no reason for him not to keep following the money wherever it takes him.


10. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mike Redmond 14144.312414019 C-47
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 4534 1
2001 Age: 30 5x5: 3533

Another great target that lets you spend your money elsewhere. Redmond hits every kind of pitch solidly except those thrown by right-handers. A good backup catcher for anyone in the league, Redmond should never hurt your team and might earn two dollars again by the end of the year.


11. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Wiki Gonzalez 16044.275827216 C-47
SD Padres DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 4534 1
2001 Age: 27 5x5: 3433 1

I find it very interesting that the Padres' signed Gonzalez instead of former first round pick Ben Davis to a three-year contract. Aside from the prestige of having a player named Wiklenman on their roster, the Padres employ a catcher with good plate discipline, a little power, and decent defense. While signing backup catchers for years at a time is usually a bad business move, the Padres' have perhaps the best benchwarmer in the majors ready to step in should Davis injure himself or otherwise find himself suddenly traded.


12. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Raul Casanova 19250.2601133021 C-56
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: 3423 1
2001 Age: 28 5x5: 2423

Eleven home runs and 33 runs batted in only 192 at-bats. Casanova has shown power against right-handers and plate discipline against lefties in his career. The Brewers should just give this guy 400 at-bats and see if he can double Henry Blanco's OPS. You should definitely say $2 when someone else offers him at auction, but don't commit more than that unless Blanco gets injured in the spring.


13. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Kelly Stinnett 18748.257925227 C-59
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 3322 1
2001 Age: 31 5x5: 2423

This probably represents Stinnett's career peak but he still helps you more than most starting catchers. If Cincinnati trades LaRue to make room for Corky Miller, Stinnett should probably receive 100 more at-bats next year as Bob Boone's "veteran catcher." Which only means that he'll hit 3 more homers and lose 30 points of batting average. With Kelly, we'll regress to the "one buck, not two" auction philosophy.


14. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ben Petrick 24458.2381139341 C-77
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 2211 18
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 2423 15

Buddy Bell must have won a bet with Dan O'Dowd since no other explanation makes sense.

Dan: Petrick's the best offensive catching prospect in years and can really help our team.
Buddy: He seems a little strongheaded. Let's jerk him around and see if we can destroy his confidence.
Dan: No way. You'll never intimidate my Ben.
Buddy: Betcha I can, and when I do, I get to keep my job no matter how bad we finish.
Dan: You're on!

He'll hit next season and earn the $10 at which we own him. If not, Petrick will further establish himself as one of the best Dangling Carrots in roto history. I wonder if he'd appreciate "Dangling Carrots" as a nickname.


15. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Brian Schneider 4113.3171604 C-14
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R 4x4: 1211 Res
2001 Age: 24 5x5: 0101

I know you're all thinking something like "HOW CAN BRIAN SCHNEIDER BE THE LAST NL CATCHER TO EARN A POSITIVE DRAFT VALUE?!?!? WHERE ARE ALL THE CATCHERS THAT I OWNED?!? SCHNEIDER ONLY HAD 41 AT-BATS!!!" You're probably all right, and he didn't really help in 5x5 leagues, but think of the following possibility to counter your rage. A catching slot this year that included a $3 Mayne through May, Mike Redmond through August, and Brian Schneider in September would have accumulated the following stats: .333 BA in 276 AB, 3 HR, 35 RBI, and 32 R. Your $3 investment in Mayne and two $1 FAAB bids would have earned you well in excess of $10. Always look for good production in limited at-bats, since additional at-bats can dramatically increase the value of most players.


What can we learn from these fifteen catchers? If you can't acquire a historically productive catcher at several dollars below their projected value, then you should acquire two $1-3 catchers with upside. You probably won't find another Paul LoDuca, but targeting quality backups has a better chance of profit than bad starters like Blanco and Matheny. In the 2001 NL LABR draft, alexpatton.com spend a buck each on Casanova and Redmond; their $5 profit helped a lot more than the losses incurred by every catcher drafted for more than $6.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Look to acquire cheap catchers in your keeper leagues. Don't keep just any $1 catchers, but be willing to fill an extra keeper slot with a Wiki Gonzalez who could earn up to $10 with a couple of breaks, and definitely should earn at least two or three. You reduce your overall catcher production, but some profit remains better than none.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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